Senate Race 2022

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
97.2% probability	2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats	Mean of 49 seats

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	47
Strong Democrat	3	50
Leans Democrat	0	0	50
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	50
Weak Republican	0	0	0	50
Leans Republican	5	5	50
Strong Republican	10	45
Safe Republican	35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		9	6018	54.3	45.7	100.0	0.0
AR		1	618	41.3	58.7	0.1	99.9
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		3	2667	55.0	45.0	100.0	0.0
CT		2	2435	58.4	41.6	100.0	0.0
FL		6	3396	47.5	52.5	2.0	98.0
GA		8	7128	51.2	48.8	92.9	7.1
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	805	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
IN		1	456	48.7	51.3	35.1	64.9
IA		1&	514	45.3	54.7	6.9	93.1
KS		1	784	42.2	57.8	0.1	99.9
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.3	99.7
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		2	1560	43.3	56.7	0.0	100.0
NV		5	3721	48.8	51.2	15.6	84.4
NH		7	5381	54.1	45.9	100.0	0.0
NY		2	1454	62.6	37.4	100.0	0.0
NC		5	3603	49.2	50.8	24.3	75.7
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		5	3698	49.3	50.7	26.9	73.1
OK		2	814	43.6	56.4	0.4	99.6
OK		1	430	39.5	60.5	0.1	99.9
OR		2	1507	61.4	38.6	100.0	0.0
PA		9	6780	52.6	47.4	99.9	0.1
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		3	1198	46.6	53.4	4.7	95.3
VT		1	996	53.5	46.5	94.5	5.5
WA		5	3361	54.4	45.6	100.0	0.0
WI		8	5709	49.2	50.8	18.4	81.6

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.