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Like a Bidness

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/18/12, 7:36 pm

The Post Office should be run more like a business than a lot of government agencies. But it still has a need to serve everyone in a way business never would. The Tacoma News Tribune disagrees about any of that public service crap.

The world changes. Heaven forbid that the U.S. Postal Service should change with it.

You can go on the Internet and print stamps right now. You can then go over and schedule a pickup. Just like when Franklin made it! If only they would advance with the times.

The USPS is supposed to operate like a business – which includes adapting to the real world – but the U.S. Senate has again made certain that it operate as a vehicle for patronage and political pandering. It has just pressured the organization into abandoning an emergency-cost cutting plan to close hundreds of money-losing post offices and mail-sorting centers nationwide, including several offices in Pierce County and the processing center on Pine Street in Tacoma.

What business funds its pension obligations 75 years into the future? But, no, the post office doesn’t have to be run just like a business. If they were, they’d probably try to stop FedEx and UPS from using zip codes because they’re propriety. Stamps would probably be a significant amount more. And the Postmaster general would be paid in the 7 or 8 figures. The Post Office is a public good that’s very different from a business. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t hard choices: there are. It just means that the calculus is different than if it were a private business.

Result: The postal unions and the nation’s remaining snail mail fans are happy. And the Postal Service – which has been losing $25 million a DAY – will keep on running immense losses unless Congress permits it to restructure itself for the 21st century.

And a result of the bad economy. Businesses are shipping less to fewer locations. The Internet exists so people aren’t sending as much mail (although I still get plenty of mail, including junk mail and legit correspondence). I doubt other shipping interests are doing well either, but they don’t work in the public interest.

On hold, too, is the USPS plan to end Saturday mail delivery – another fossil from the age when snail mail was the only game in town. Ending that tradition would have saved the system – and ultimately the taxpayers – royal sums of money. It would also have antagonized the people who don’t the status quo to change, ever.

Fair enough, but there are real consequences if the post office doesn’t run on Saturdays. Also, does whoever wrote this think the taxpayers are on the hook for the Post Office? Because, that’s not how it works:

In 1982, U.S. postage stamps became “postal products,” rather than a form of taxation. Since then, The bulk of the cost of operating the postal system has been paid for by customers through the sale of “postal products” and services rather than taxes.

Each class of mail is also expected to cover its share of the costs, a requirement that causes the percentage rate adjustments to vary in different classes of mail, according the costs associated with the processing and delivery characteristics of each class.

So I guess the good news is that the Post Office is already run more like a business than this article calling for it to be run like a business thinks. Anyway, I’m getting bored, but I’ll give you a terrible metaphor.

Communities defend their post offices like Rottweilers, and they terrify members of Congress who otherwise wouldn’t spend a penny bailing out an archaic mail system.

Rottweilers are well known for defending post offices and terrifying members of Congress.

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Poll Analysis: Obama v. Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 5/18/12, 4:25 pm

It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”

Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.

First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.

That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.

Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.

Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes Mean of 205 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Open Thread 5/17

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/17/12, 8:01 am

– I know Reichert is safe, but the 8th Congressional District’s right turn has prompted a challenge from the right.

– Dennis Kucinich won’t run for Congress, so now people covering the 1st district will have to cover the actual candidates in the race.

– Americans Elect isn’t working out so well.

– Big Fat Love

– Maybe after his book on economic growth, George W. Bush can write a book about not going to war in Iraq.

– Bad publicity is like kryptonite to big corporations

– This is embarrassing, Daddy. Aren’t you a sportswriter?

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Evolution happens

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/9/12, 6:36 pm

A day following passage of Amendment 1 in North Carolina, banning same-sex marriage in the state, Obama finally reaches the tipping point in his evolution toward support of same-sex marriage:

So what was the response “across the isle?”

RNC Chair Renee Blatherspoon (or whatever the fuck his name is): “…President Obama has played politics on this issue…”

Ahhh…Obama, who has been talking about his position “evolving” on this issue has, like an evil genius, picked THIS moment to capitalize on the issue for maximum political advantage!

And elsewhere:

Ralph Reed, a top organizer among religious conservatives, said Obama’s announcement was a “gift to the Romney campaign.” […] “The Obama campaign doesn’t have to worry about New York and California,” Reed said. “They have to worry about Ohio, Florida and Virginia and I don’t’ see evidence that it’s a winning issue in those states.”

and

“This decision may have made Barack Obama a one-term president,” Bob Vander Plaats the head of The Family Leader, a conservative faith group focused on politics in Iowa, said. This will stoke a part of the religious base even more against Obama, Vander Plaats said. “They were already fired up to get rid of Obama. This will only make them more on fire to get rid of Obama. And if I’m Romney today, I’m smiling,” he said.

In other words…this move was political suicide.

A politically shrewed move AND political suicide at the same time.

Clearly, Obama is Master of the Jedi mind trick….

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/6/12, 7:00 am

Revelation 9:7-10
The locusts looked like horses prepared for battle. They had what looked like gold crowns on their heads, and their faces looked like human faces. They had hair like women’s hair and teeth like the teeth of a lion. They wore armor made of iron, and their wings roared like an army of chariots rushing into battle. They had tails that stung like scorpions, and for five months they had the power to torment people.

Discuss.

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Sandbagged or Not, Support Marriage Equality

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/4/12, 5:23 pm

Dwight Pelz has pulled his support for the the marriage equality plank of the federal platform. He claims the problem is that this is an effort to embarrass Obama.

“I was unhappy to see them throw up some press release out there making it like this insurrection within the party,” Pelz says. “I wasn’t happy with them using my name,” he says, explaining that he didn’t like their tactics. “I didn’t realize it was part of a strategy to start a fight within the party and embarrass the President.”

“Frankly, I felt sandbagged.”

I appreciate that Pelz wants to support President Obama more than he cares about any particular plank in the platform. But if Obama can’t support a marriage equality plank, he deserves to be embarrassed. He’s on the wrong side of history and the wrong side of basic human decency.*

Furthermore, the Washington State Democratic platform will support marriage equality because most Washington State Democrats support marriage equality. Most of the caucus in the last session of the legislature supported marriage equality. We need a chair who will support for those values at the national level. I realize that party activists have the freedom to get ahead of elected officials on these sorts of issues, I just hope Pelz remembers that he’s an activist, not an elected official, now.

[Read more…]

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Open Thread 4/30

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 4/30/12, 8:02 am

– Yes, it’s an event where vile war criminals like Henry Kissinger are feted and celebrated, but you know where else vile war criminals like Henry Kissinger are celebrated? Literally everywhere they go. The Correspondents’ Dinner is just an awkward roast preceded and followed by depressing parties.

– Screwed straight

– Well, it’s nice to see a few people in the beltway calling them out. But it’s been true for decades that the GOP is the problem.

– The Real McKenna.

– Maple Leaf is getting itself a brand-new art walk

– I denied involvement, so the whistleblower must be lying!

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Victims Who Count

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 4/27/12, 8:48 pm

What the hell, Cathy McMorris Rodgers?

The bad news is that Republicans in the House, led by Washington State Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA, 5) are pushing an alternative proposal—which McMorris Rodgers, incredibly, said will protect “the true victims of domestic violence and sexual assault”—that does not provide any of the Senate version’s protections for Native American women, gay women, rural women, and some illegal immigrants. (The latter provision is aimed largely at protecting so-called child and mail-order brides brought into the country illegally and under false pretenses.)

McMorris Rodgers’ statement is worth repeating. “House Republicans are committed to protecting the true victims of domestic violence and sexual assault,” she said. “True” victims—those worthy of protection—in other words, do not include Native American women, women who live in remote rural areas, children and women sold into sex slavery, or lesbians.

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More Nonsense From McKenna

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 4/27/12, 8:00 am

I realize this is a few days old now, but Rob McKenna, backed into a corner with his not an answer answer, on the Reproductive Parity Act, finally decided he has an opinion on it after all. Fortunately pro-choice groups see right through it.

McKenna falsely claimed today that the Reproductive Parity Act will “put federal funding of women’s health care at risk” by addressing the Weldon Amendment. However, if he read the current legislation he would see that the Weldon Amendment was raised during the legislative session and is fully addressed in the bill as it stands. Under the Weldon Amendment, states may not “discriminate” against providers who do not offer abortion services.

The Reproductive Parity Act has been drafted specifically to protect insurance carriers in the state of Washington against discrimination and will keep our state compliant with the federal requirements of the Weldon Amendment. Every carrier currently selling in Washington covers abortion, and they have no objection to the RPA. Washington has an existing conscience clause for new providers wishing to be admitted into the state that do not want to include abortion in any of their health plans.

In fact, pro-choice leaders Jay Inslee, then a Congressman in the 1st, and Congressmen Jim McDermott (D-7) and Adam Smith (D-9) already sent this letter that you can download here to President Obama addressing the Weldon Amendment and supporting access to women’s health care coverage and the Reproductive Parity Act (HB 2330).

While so much of the nation is going backwards (h/t to Geov) on these issues, it’s good that Washington has the chance to go in the right direction.

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The Right Direction

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 4/26/12, 5:19 pm

Another small bit of good news, Tacoma only has to fill an $11 million dollar gap.

In essence, the city has spent a bit less and collected a bit more than expected through the first three months of this year. Much of the extra money comes from a surge in revenue from licensing and permits – but it’s a mistake to pick any single trend and call it a cause, according to Bob Biles, the city’s finance director, who relayed the pleasant news to council members.

Obviously, there’s a lot of work still to do, and more cuts after several years of economic shit won’t help the city. I wouldn’t say it’s a sign that things are good, but at least things are moving in the right direction.

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Why Choice is a Legit Issue

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 4/25/12, 8:37 pm

Darryl already linked to Rob McKenna’s non-answer of the Reproductive Parity Act/ telling someone to get a job because they asked him a question. The news is the get a job part, but the Reproductive Parity Act is reveling too:

First off, he doesn’t seem to know the history of the Reproductive Parity Act. I mean his answer, “I’m a lawyer for the State” doesn’t make sense. He seems to think the question referred to a law his office might have to defend. Does he not know it didn’t pass the legislature? Was he confusing it with the pharmacy regulations? It was one of Washington’s pro-choice community’s biggest concerns in the last session and the fact that he isn’t aware of what happened with it doesn’t signal much of a commitment to women’s health.

Now, Rob McKenna is an ostensibly pro-choice politician, and that would be great if that was a simple binary. But this brings up that state government does a lot of things that — even if the governor isn’t trying to outlaw abortion — can have an impact on women’s access to health care including abortion. We’re seeing trap laws in Mississippi and other states that are making it tougher for doctors to perform abortions. While I doubt we’d go that far in Washington, the governor can enact many regulations that might make it tougher for abortion providers. States are pulling or considering pulling funding for Planned Parenthood. In tight budget times, we don’t know if he’ll look to pull that sort of funding even if ostensibly he supports their mission.

Closer to home, the Reproductive Parity Act that he seems not to know anything about passed the state house and looked destined to pass the state senate until the budget shenanigans. It seems reasonable to ask if he’d veto or sign it if it made it to his desk. In the previous session, the legislature passed a bill expanding family planning services to women from 200% of poverty to 250%. While this doesn’t turn on abortion since it’s taking federal money, it’s easy enough to see McKenna using his line item veto on it in a bid to save money (it’s penny wise and pound foolish, but that hasn’t stopped other GOP ideas).

Finally, Republican politicians go from pro-choice to anti when going from a liberal state to trying to get the GOP nomination. Ronald Reagan signed the law that legalized abortion in California before opposing abortion when he ran for president. George Herbert Walker Bush was pro choice until he needed to be anti-choice to be selected as the Vice President. Mitt Romney used to be pro-choice in Massachusetts but he’s anti-choice now. This wouldn’t be too much of an issue if McKenna were adamantly pro-choice and willing to answer all choice questions. But since he isn’t, you have to wonder if this position is here to stay.

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Open Thread 4/24

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 4/24/12, 7:58 am

– Well here’s a bulletin on this dog and pony show. Window dressing isn’t going to hack it. Women, the ones to hold families and communities together, are major casualties in the ongoing economic crisis. They and people of color have lost the most jobs, homes, savings and social services.

– Seattle is the coolest city ever, you guys.

– I’m glad to see what they’re doing to improve One Bus Away. And I appreciate the digitizing analog music metaphor.

– The EEOC says you can’t discriminate based on gender identity.

– Baseball in Portland

– Norse faith: 1 Atheists: 0

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Flattening the Hills

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 4/20/12, 8:03 am

Another advantage of mass transit.

Since the opening of Beacon Hill Station, many people who ride bikes have figured out that for a couple bucks, Link Light Rail will make one of Seattle’s mightiest hills disappear. Just hop on at Pioneer Square Station and two stops and an elevator later you are at the top of the hill.

Michael van Baker at the SunBreak asks: Will University Link do the same to Capitol Hill?

It is another thing that makes bike riding easier. I’m more a tootle around town person than a go for a 40 mile ride person. So I can usually get up the hills. But it is another nice option to have. Also, if you get caught in a storm, you have aren’t stuck in the middle of the rain.

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I Thought St. James Was a One Off

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 4/18/12, 8:25 pm

But it looks like there are several Catholic parishes that won’t collect signatures for R-74.

The congregation at Seattle’s Our Lady of the Lake Catholic Church gave the Rev. Tim Clark a standing ovation Sunday when he announced that the parish would not gather signatures for a referendum to repeal same-sex marriage.

The parish became the sixth in Seattle to opt out of the petition drive for Referendum 74 that has been endorsed and foisted on parishes by Archbishop J. Peter Sartain.

“I am happy to report that Our Lady of the Lake parishoners have been overwhelmingly and, thus far, unanimously supportive of the decision I made NOT to gather signatures in support of this Referendum,” Clark wrote in response to an e-mail.

“The standing ovation experienced during one of the Masses says less about me and much more about the health of this parish. I only wished the archbishop could have experienced the sustained applause — the ‘sensus fidelium’ — of the people. He needs to listen to this ‘voice.’ That is my prayer.”

Other parishes to shun the signature drive have includes St. James Cathedral, St. Joseph Church, St. Mary’s Church, St. Patrick Church and Christ Our Hope Catholic Church.

Obviously, the Church collecting signatures at all for this referendum is a problem. There were exemptions carved out for them, and other religious organizations that didn’t want to perform same sex ceremonies. And yet, they can’t just live and let live with the law. Still, the parishes not participating is a great (even if small, and possibly overrepresented as a story) part of the story.

I don’t want to overstate this, because the Roman Catholic church remains very much a not-democracy, and the Archbishop Peter J. Sartrain, who has been foisting this petition drive on his parishes, sounds like a real not-peach. He’s been trying to muster Catholics in favor of Referendum 74, which would block Washington’s new same-sex marriage law.

But this outright refusal to accede to the Archbishop’s wishes touches on a post I made back in February arguing that the Conference of Catholic Bishops’ attempts to mobilize a “Catholic voting bloc” a la the conservative evangelical Protestant vote, would backfire badly. Yes, on paper the Church is very hierarchical; in practice, Catholic voters are much more diverse than the Bishops would like to admit

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Rob McKenna wants you to know

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/18/12, 4:36 pm

Rob McKenna wants you to know that he isn’t Scott Walker. Via Politico (audio link added):

Rob McKenna…told a gathering of Puget Sound Carpenters last week that he’ll strive for a “positive relationship between labor and management,” even lamenting the agenda pursued by Walker.
“We need to have a good strong relationship between labor and management in this state,” McKenna said at the April 11 meeting, according to the audio that was secretly recorded. “Now unfortunately because of a couple of governors — particularly Scott Walker — everyone thinks that someone who’s going to be a Republican governor, they’re going to be Scott Walker. I’m not Scott Walker. This is not Wisconsin. This is Washington state.”

You know who else isn’t Scott Walker? Gov. John Kasich (R) of Ohio, also elected in 2010 who, a year later, signed Senate Bill 5 that limited collective bargaining for public employee unions.

And who else isn’t Scott Walker? Two-term Governor Mitch Daniels (R) of Indiana who, on day one of his first term used executive orders to decimate public employee unions.

Who are other not-Scott Walkers, that have waged war on collective bargaining, public employee unions, and labor in general? Govs. Rick Scott (R-FL), Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Rick Snyder (R-MI), Bobby Jindal (R-LA), and Chris Christie (R-NJ).

Who else isn’t Scott Walker? Scott Fucking Walker, that’s who.

Here he is, just a week before the 2010 election, being interviewed by the Oshkosh Northwestern‘s editorial board (video here):

Editorial Board Member: Before, we were talking about state employees contributing to their plan, paying their share of the pension plan. Collective bargaining come into that?

Walker: Yep (nodding yes)

Editorial Board Member: How do you get that negotiated and accepted by the state employee unions?

Walker: You still have to negotiate it. I did that at the county as well.

McKenna is asking us to trust that he will not engage in the same ALEC-fueled agenda we’ve seen coming from his fellow Republicans in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Louisiana, Maine, and New Jersey. Really, Rob? After claiming to be the co-creator of the Teabaggy lawsuit to overturn the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act? After refusing to represent state Commissioner of Public Lands Peter Goldmark in a lawsuit to protect public lands? After making a closed-door campaign promise before an anti-light rail group that he would work to find ways to kill light rail to the East Side?

Get real.

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