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Like Benedict Arnold. And Jesus.

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/18/12, 7:57 pm

When Lee and I (and some other folks) used to do metacommentary one of our favorite blogs to make fun of was Reagan Wing. Nowadays, they’re pretty much just a Ron Paul blog. And is keepusfree upset with Rand Paul, but don’t criticize him.

Rand Paul a Traitor?

No. He endorsed a different presidential candidate than you. Unless that presidential candidate is Jefferson Davis, it ain’t treason.

Along with many of you in the Liberty Movement, I watched and listened with sick horror to Rand Paul’s endorsement of Mitt Romney. But thinking about it, in a political sense, in a global context of what is happening in our world, I would like to offer a hypothesis.

I think you’ll be surprised to learn that there’s a difference between vague half articulated conspiracy theories and a hypothesis.

We do not know the pressures that might have been brought to bear on Ron and Rand Paul. The power wielded by the enemies of the free people of the world is enormous and they have no scruples, no mercy, and no justice. In a perfect world, there might be a “John Galt” moment, where Rand steps aside to reveal the gun pointed at him. But that is a novel. Real life is not so clean.

I think the enemies of free people probably brought a bear to bear on Rand Paul. What I’m saying is watch out for his family getting mauled by a grizzly if he switches back to his father. It can’t possibly have anything to do with delegate math. I know the Ron Paul people think they’ll just overwhelm the national convention. But (a) they won’t, and (b) even if they did, maybe Rand Paul thinks it would be immoral (or just bad politics) to nominate someone who couldn’t win the majority of a single state. But you know what, fuck all that: mysterious forces.

If the Powers That Be can see our heroes brought low, it is to their great advantage and will serve them well. That someone breaks under the kind of pressure that they can exert is to be expected.

The pressure of winning the nomination. Wait, am I defending Mitt Romney? What’s wrong with me? It must be The Powers That Be. Anyway, it goes on like this for a while: they’re brave truth tellers, and it’s oh so tough. Then we reach the conclusion.

Rand Paul’s Cross

In this metaphor, Rand Paul is Jesus. But maybe, I’m being too over the top. It’s a fairly common metaphor that we all understand. It’s not like she called his father “Father” with a capital “F” or something.

Before you criticize Rand Paul, you should walk a mile in his shoes. The road he is traveling cannot be easy and will be rocky and dangerous. But his Father must have passed on some of his stalwart principles to his son, and he may yet serve us, even while he faces our ire and castigation for something which well may be completely out of his control, or may be a part of something we cannot yet see or understand. It may be the cross he has to bear and the sacrifice he has to make in order to continue in the fight at all. Only time will tell.

Or, he’s just a politician with some awful ideas that are closer to his dad’s. But since his dad isn’t going to win the nomination, he endorsed the other guy with horrible ideas.

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The Quality of Writing

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 6/15/12, 5:40 pm

On Friday David Brooks and Paul Krugman share space on the New York Times Op-Ed page. Sometimes, the contrast between the quality of writing is embarrassing. Today, I noticed the transitions between paragraphs. Here’s how Bobo starts each paragraph after the first:

I guess I’d say
But many Republicans
“We have a sense
To Republican eyes,
America’s economic stagnation
In America as in Europe
The welfare model favors
This is the source of Republican extremism
Mitt Romney hasn’t put it this way
Democrats have had trouble grasping
In his speech
Obama championed
This is what this election is about
Republicans and Democrats have different perceptions

Sometimes it ties the previous paragraph to the next one. But more often than not it’s jarring. Oh here’s a new idea. Maybe there are connections, but you’ll have to make them yourself. Compare that to K-thug.

Never mind
In the remarks
You can see
So would getting rid of teachers, police officers, and firefighters help the American people?
But the more relevant question
First of all
And, if we had those extra jobs
The really decisive evidence
But recovery never came
And the point is
So the former governor
Actually, it’s kind of ironic
And that’s not just an inference
In fact
Needless to say

Whatever you think of Krugman’s argument in this piece, you can see the way he ties one paragraph into another pretty much every time.

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Candidate Answers: Kathleen Drew

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 6/15/12, 7:51 am

My questions in bold Kathleen Drew’s are unbolded.

1) How will you make sure elections are fair?

Washingtonians expect a Secretary of State who is fair and impartial. Those are the characteristics I have shown throughout my career. I am not a career politician, I am an effective and experienced manager committed to fair elections and increased voter participation. I authored our state’s Ethics in Public Service law and served on our state Commission on Government Ethics and Campaign Finance Reform.

As Secretary of State I will ensure consistency and transparency in election processes across the state. I will require a paper trail for votes cast. I will increase auditing of equipment and processes to ensure that our election system is secure and accurate.

I will also implement consistent statewide policies on the use and distribution of ballot drop boxes so that they are available in communities and on college campuses across the state. I’ll reach out to all demographic groups in both urban and rural communities to encourage all eligible citizens to vote. Working together we can identify barriers that eligible voters face and eliminate them. However, all of these improvements will be at risk if we allow corporate interests to participate in elections without restriction or accountability. I’ll fight any efforts to suppress voting, such as those we’ve seen in other states. I strongly oppose the Supreme Court’s decision in the Citizens United case and support a constitutional amendment to repeal the decision. I also support passage of the DISCLOSE Act. I’ll work here in Washington State to increase transparency and accountability in the initiative process.

2) The last Democratic Secretary of State retired in 1964. What makes you think you’re going to finally flip that?

Both of the previous two Secretaries of State had statewide experience and worked in the executive branch of state government. I am the only candidate of any party in this race that has similar experience in state government, both as a policy advisor to the Governor and as a State Senator. I have a clear vision of why I am running and what I want to accomplish. I have the most active and effective campaign of any candidate and have been traveling across the state listening to voters’ concerns and ideas since November. I am the nominee of the Washington State Democratic Party and have been endorsed by dozens of organizations, state and local elected officials, community leaders and citizens from every part of this state. Many of these endorsements are listed below.

Washington State Democratic Party Nominee
Washington State Labor Council
International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, AFL-CIO District 751
Washington Federation of State Employees
American Federation of Teachers, Washington
SEIU 1199NW
Teamsters Joint Council 28
UFCW 367
IBEW Local 77
IBEW Local 112
IBEW Local 483
Spokane Fire Fighters Union Local 29
EMILY’s List
NARAL Pro-Choice Washington
National Organization for Women
National Women’s Political Caucus of Washington State
King County Democrats
Pierce County Democrats
Snohomish County Democrats
Thurston County Democrats
Kitsap County Democrats
Grays Harbor County Democrats
Metropolitan Democratic Club of Seattle
1st Legislative District Democrats (Bothell)
5th Legislative District Democrats (Issaquah)
11th Legislative District Democrats (Renton)
15th Legislative District Democrats (Yakima)
22nd Legislative District Democrats (Olympia)
27th Legislative District Democrats (Tacoma)
30th Legislative District Democrats (Federal Way)
32nd Legislative District Democrats (Shoreline)
33rd Legislative District Democrats (Kent)
34th Legislative District Democrats (Seattle)
35th Legislative District Democrats (Mason, Kitsap, and Thurston Counties)
36th Legislative District Democrats (Seattle)
37th Legislative District Democrats (Seattle)
41st Legislative District Democrats (Bellevue and Mercer Island)
42nd Legislative District Democrats (Bellevue)
43rd Legislative District Democrats (Seattle)
45th Legislative District Democrats (Redmond)
46th Legislative District Democrats (Seattle)
47th Legislative District Democrats (Covington)
49th Legislative District Democrats (Vancouver)
Young Democrats of Washington
King County Young Democrats
Pierce County Young Democrats
UW Young Democrats
WSU Young Democrats
Adam Smith, United States Congressman (WA-9)
Robert Utter, Former Chief Justice, Washington State Supreme Court
Faith Ireland, Former Justice, Washington State Supreme Court
Jennifer Belcher, Former Public Lands Commissioner
Michael J. Murphy, Former Washington State Treasurer
Ron Sims, Former King County Executive
Jolene Unsoeld, Former United States Congresswoman (WA-3)
Rosemary McAuliffe, Washington State Senate (D-1)
Luis Moscoso, Washington State House of Representatives (D-1)
Derek Stanford, Washington State House of Representatives (D-1)
Andy Billig, Washington State House of Representatives (D-3)
Margarita Prentice, Washington State Senate (D-11)
Bob Hasegawa, Washington State House of Representatives (D-11)
Brian Blake, Washington State House of Representatives (D-19)
Mary Helen Roberts, Washington State House of Representatives (D-21)
Karen Fraser, Washington State Senate (D-22)
Sam Hunt, Washington State House of Representatives (D-22)
Chris Reykdal, Washington State House of Representatives (D-22)
Sherry Appleton, Washington State House of Representatives (D-23)
Christine Rolfes, Washington State Senate (D-23)
Steve Tharinger, Washington State House of Representatives (D-24)
Larry Seaquist, Washington State House of Representatives (D-26)
Jeannie Darneille, Washington State House of Representatives (D-27)
Laurie Jinkins, Washington State House of Representatives (D-27)
Tami Green, Washington State House of Representatives (D-28)
Connie Ladenburg, Washington State House of Representatives (D-29)
Steve Kirby, Washington State House of Representatives (D-29)
Maralyn Chase, Washington State Senate (D-32)
Cindy Ryu, Washington State House of Representatives (D-32)
Ruth Kagi, Washington State House of Representatives (D-32)
Karen Keiser, Washington State Senate (D-33)
Dave Upthegrove, Washington State House of Representatives (D-33)
Sharon Nelson, Washington State Senate (D-34)
Eileen Cody, Washington State House of Representatives (D-34)
Kathy Haigh, Washington State House of Representatives (D-35)
Adam Kline, Washington State Senate (D-37)
John McCoy, Washington State House of Representatives (D-38)
Mike Sells, Washington State House of Representatives (D-38)
Kristine Lytton, Washington State House of Representatives (D-40)
Marcie Maxwell, Washington State House of Representatives (D-41)
Jamie Pedersen, Washington State House of Representatives (D-43)
Hans Dunshee, Washington State House of Representatives (D-44)
Gerry Pollet, Washington State House of Representatives (D-46)
Sharon Wylie, Washington State House of Representatives (D-49)
Jim Moeller, Washington State House of Representatives (D-49)
Julia Patterson, King County Councilmember
Larry Phillips, King County Councilmember
Lloyd Hara, King County Assessor
Gael Tarleton, Port of Seattle Commissioner
Brian Sullivan, Snohomish County Councilmember
Stephanie Wright, Snohomish County Councilmember
Dave Gossett, Shohomish County Councilmember
John Lovick, Snohomish County Sheriff
Cindy Portmann, Snohomish County Assessor
Sonya Kraski, Snohomish County Clerk
Doug Lasher, Clark County Treasurer
David Peterson, Kitsap County Clerk
Sandra Romero, Thurston County Commissioner
Karen Valenzuela, Thurston County Commissioner
Shawn Myers, Thurston County Treasurer
Steven Drew, Thurston County Assessor
George Barner, Thurston County Port Commissioner
Mike Doherty, Clallam County Commissioner
Bruce Walker, Pacific County Assessor
Jean Godden, Seattle City Councilmember
Richard Conlin, Seattle City Councilmember
Bruce Harrell, Seattle City Councilmember
Tom Rasmussen, Seattle City Councilmember
Ray Stephanson, Everett Mayor
Lauren Walker, Tacoma City Councilmember
Ryan Mello, Tacoma City Councilmember
Anders Ibsen, Tacoma City Councilmember
Dennis Higgins, Kent City Councilmember
Dana Ralph, Kent City Councilmember
Joan McBride, Kirkland Mayor
Jim Cooper, Olympia City Council
Karen Rogers, Olympia City Council
Jeff Gadman, Lacey City Councilmember
Ron Lawson, Lacey City Councilmember
Cynthia Pratt, Lacey City Councilmember
Andy Ryder, Lacey City Councilmember
Carol Arends, Bremerton City Councilmember
Greg Wheeler, Bremerton City Councilmember
Leslie Daugs, Bremerton City Councilmember
Sissi Bruch, Port Angeles City Councilmember
Ken Hays, Sequim Mayor
Laura Dubois, Sequim City Councilmember
Gerald Robinson, Burien City Councilmember
Joan Cathey, Tumwater City Councilmember
Tom Oliva, Tumwater City Councilmember
Wayne Ehlers, Former Washington State Representative and Speaker of the House (D-2)
Valoria Loveland, Former Franklin County Treasurer and Washington State Senator (D-16)
Bill Smitherman, Former Washington State Senator (D-26)
Nancy Rust, Former Washington State Representative (D-32)
Harriet Spanel, Former Washington State Senator (D-40)
Pat Thibaudeau, Former Washington State Senator (D-43)
Dawn Mason, Former Washington State Representative (D-37)
Val Ogden, Former Washington State Representative (D-49)
Mary Ann Ottinger, Former King County District Court Judge
Mary Verner, Former Spokane Mayor
Cathy Pearsall-Stipek, Former Pierce County Auditor

3) Sam Reed has been pushing to count the ballots that are received by election day (like in Oregon) rather than the ones postmarked by election day. Do you support or oppose this?

Although many are frustrated by the length of time it takes to get final election results, I do not support changing the due date for ballot returns. First, we have required ballots to be postmarked by Election Day for about 30 years. Changing this practice will disenfranchise many who have consistently voted in this state. Second, the legislature recently changed the primary date to ensure overseas and military voters could receive and return ballots by Election Day. We have had a system of requiring votes to be postmarked by Election Day and this will once again shorten the timeframe for our service men and women overseas. Third, we are facing federal cutbacks to our US Postal Service. The future of regional post offices is uncertain. If postal service declines, the impact on mailed ballots could mean additional days for delivery. Requiring the ballots to be dropped off or postmarked by Election Day provides for the most consistent statewide rule where voters do not have to guess when their ballots will be received.

4) What legislation, if any, will you lobby for as Secretary of State?

There are three crucial bills that I will lobby for and make Secretary of State legislation. All three were introduced last year, but did not make it into law.

1. HB 2205 / SB 6128 – Allowing 16 and 17 year olds to preregister to vote

As it stands, 40% of Washingtonians register to vote when they get their driver’s license. This system works well, but it currently precludes our sons and daughters who get their driver’s license before the age of 18 from participating in this successful program. Allowing them to preregister will increase access to voting and actively engage young people in the political processes.

This is a crucial bill and I’m honored to have the support of Rep. Billig, the prime sponsor of this legislation.

2. SB 6127/HB 2204 – Election Day Registration

This is a necessary step towards greater access that will allow all of our citizens to vote in elections, even if they have not registered ahead of the election. This policy needs a supportive Secretary of State who is willing to work with local Auditors to implement the plan and involve community organizations to assist in the efforts.

3. HB 2612 / SB 6381 – The Washington State Voting Rights Act

This bill will allow communities with a history of racism to work towards transforming their election system from an at large system to one that is district based and does not disenfranchise communities of color. I’m enthusiastic about working on this bill, having previously met with the students who led the research towards this effort and many of the stakeholder groups that are working introduce more fairness for all into our system.

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Open Thread 6/12

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 6/12/12, 7:59 am

– Seattle has black jobs and white jobs. If President Obama went down there and applied, he couldn’t get one of those jobs.

– More anti-abortion bullshit coming out of Texas.

– So far The Stranger’s map of free outlets is pretty bare. But it’s a good start.

– Republican members of the Senate think that the path to small business success is paved with the unpaid wages of working women.

– The Up Garden.

– I don’t know about you, but I think Lindy West wrote the greatest opening paragraph in the history of words.

– Let Mitt do the driving.

– How Feudalism works.

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Open Thread 6/11

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/11/12, 7:58 am

– The social engineering in recruiting and force structure, the endless, pointless missions,the impossible standard set by asking every soldier to be a “hero,” when soldiers know that most heroes are dead or disabled. Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Which is why it’s no wonder that we see stories like this…

– Another chance for Pierce Transit voters to vote for a sales tax increase to help their system.

– Paid signature gathering, what could go wrong?

– I haven’t had a chance to watch the Revitalizing State and Local Blogging panel at Netroots Nation, but the tweets were interesting.

– Olympia High School‘s response to Westboro Baptist Church. [h/t, and while you’re there, check out the Calvin Johnson walking tour of Olympia]

– I’m the guy in the video. LOL forever.

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Why That Much Corporate Money is in Politics is Not Discussed

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/6/12, 7:33 pm

I like Joel Connelly, but in his coverage this back and forth between the Association of Washington Business and the Inslee campaign, he misses the larger point.

“As you can imagine, accepting $100,000 from a major oil company openly supporting Mr. McKenna leaves the impression that the money is intended for eventual use on behalf of Mr. McKenna against Jay Inslee,” Shimomura wrote to the AWB.

“This raises serious concerns for us, and we imagine it will raise concerns for many viewers and voters as well.” Shimomura urged the Association of Washington Business to “return Tesoro’s contribution.”

One problem: Tesoro and Equilon (Shell) were using the AWB PAC not to support McKenna, but to pass through money to Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1185. Seattlepi.com and Northwest Progressive Institute both posted stories May 11 on the pass-through. Eyman, too, explained the arrangement in a letter to his followers.

Four big oil companies, BP ($100,000), ConocoPhillips ($100,000) Tesoro ($100,000) and Equilon ($50,000) are underwriting the I-1185 signature campaign while Eyman delivers populist sound bites. BP and ConocoPhillips gave directly to the campaign.

Maybe. But I think the larger point is still holy shit, the global warming industry is throwing around how much money, again? The fact that these companies — and they are anti-Inslee companies — freely spend this much money is a huge problem. For huge companies to spend more than what most people make in a year like it’s Monopoly money is a disgrace. I realize Joel covered it before, but for that to be an aside is taking your eye off the ball.

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Open Thread 5/31

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/31/12, 8:02 am

– These people aren’t advocating for “life.” They are advocating a political strategy that stigmatizes a legal medical procedure in order to punish those they see as sexually transgressive with either death or the financial instability that follows from a lack of reproductive choice. [h/t]

– The gun violence problem is in Seattle. The solution is in Olympia. Maybe, but let’s not ignore what Seattle can do and let’s also not ignore the gun violence in the rest of the state.

– Chart of the day.

– Lord knows I’m a terrible speller. But Amercia?

– I found this piece on dead pigeons quite fascinating, but note there were some graphic videos/pictures.

– Sometimes I listen to Mariners games on the other team’s feed (you get a different assessment than from the Seattle announcers). Early this season, when they were playing the A’s, the radio guy said that there was another event at the same time as the game the following day, so everybody take public transportation. It wasn’t a wishy-washy you might want to consider type of thing. I don’t know if we need a system as comprehensive as BART before we can not be worried about getting stuck in traffic when we build sports stadiums.

– Honk if you love Jesus

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Another Isolated Incident

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 7:44 am

These anti-choice acts of violence that have nothing to do with any other act of violence have come fast these last few days.

A New Orleans women’s health organization was destroyed last week by an unknown arsonist, becoming the latest target of attacks on women’s health clinics in the south.

The organization, Women With A Vision, was likely singled out because it offers AIDS prevention help, HIV testing, and substance abuse assistance to sex workers, transgender women, poor women, and women of color. The clinic also does community outreach and education on those issues. Like two incidents in Georgia last week, no one was injured in the fire, but the clinic lost a good share of its resources.

This incident and the countless — unrelated — ones like it that have nothing whatever to do with the political rhetoric that opposing women’s rights to control their own bodies. It certainly has nothing to do with a climate of violence.

[h/t]

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/27/12, 7:00 am

Leviticus 18:17
Do not have sexual relations with both a woman and her daughter. Do not have sexual relations with either her son’s daughter or her daughter’s daughter; they are her close relatives. That is wickedness.

Discuss.

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Like a Bidness

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/18/12, 7:36 pm

The Post Office should be run more like a business than a lot of government agencies. But it still has a need to serve everyone in a way business never would. The Tacoma News Tribune disagrees about any of that public service crap.

The world changes. Heaven forbid that the U.S. Postal Service should change with it.

You can go on the Internet and print stamps right now. You can then go over and schedule a pickup. Just like when Franklin made it! If only they would advance with the times.

The USPS is supposed to operate like a business – which includes adapting to the real world – but the U.S. Senate has again made certain that it operate as a vehicle for patronage and political pandering. It has just pressured the organization into abandoning an emergency-cost cutting plan to close hundreds of money-losing post offices and mail-sorting centers nationwide, including several offices in Pierce County and the processing center on Pine Street in Tacoma.

What business funds its pension obligations 75 years into the future? But, no, the post office doesn’t have to be run just like a business. If they were, they’d probably try to stop FedEx and UPS from using zip codes because they’re propriety. Stamps would probably be a significant amount more. And the Postmaster general would be paid in the 7 or 8 figures. The Post Office is a public good that’s very different from a business. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t hard choices: there are. It just means that the calculus is different than if it were a private business.

Result: The postal unions and the nation’s remaining snail mail fans are happy. And the Postal Service – which has been losing $25 million a DAY – will keep on running immense losses unless Congress permits it to restructure itself for the 21st century.

And a result of the bad economy. Businesses are shipping less to fewer locations. The Internet exists so people aren’t sending as much mail (although I still get plenty of mail, including junk mail and legit correspondence). I doubt other shipping interests are doing well either, but they don’t work in the public interest.

On hold, too, is the USPS plan to end Saturday mail delivery – another fossil from the age when snail mail was the only game in town. Ending that tradition would have saved the system – and ultimately the taxpayers – royal sums of money. It would also have antagonized the people who don’t the status quo to change, ever.

Fair enough, but there are real consequences if the post office doesn’t run on Saturdays. Also, does whoever wrote this think the taxpayers are on the hook for the Post Office? Because, that’s not how it works:

In 1982, U.S. postage stamps became “postal products,” rather than a form of taxation. Since then, The bulk of the cost of operating the postal system has been paid for by customers through the sale of “postal products” and services rather than taxes.

Each class of mail is also expected to cover its share of the costs, a requirement that causes the percentage rate adjustments to vary in different classes of mail, according the costs associated with the processing and delivery characteristics of each class.

So I guess the good news is that the Post Office is already run more like a business than this article calling for it to be run like a business thinks. Anyway, I’m getting bored, but I’ll give you a terrible metaphor.

Communities defend their post offices like Rottweilers, and they terrify members of Congress who otherwise wouldn’t spend a penny bailing out an archaic mail system.

Rottweilers are well known for defending post offices and terrifying members of Congress.

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Poll Analysis: Obama v. Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 5/18/12, 4:25 pm

It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”

Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.

First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.

That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.

Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.

Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes Mean of 205 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Open Thread 5/17

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/17/12, 8:01 am

– I know Reichert is safe, but the 8th Congressional District’s right turn has prompted a challenge from the right.

– Dennis Kucinich won’t run for Congress, so now people covering the 1st district will have to cover the actual candidates in the race.

– Americans Elect isn’t working out so well.

– Big Fat Love

– Maybe after his book on economic growth, George W. Bush can write a book about not going to war in Iraq.

– Bad publicity is like kryptonite to big corporations

– This is embarrassing, Daddy. Aren’t you a sportswriter?

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Evolution happens

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/9/12, 6:36 pm

A day following passage of Amendment 1 in North Carolina, banning same-sex marriage in the state, Obama finally reaches the tipping point in his evolution toward support of same-sex marriage:

So what was the response “across the isle?”

RNC Chair Renee Blatherspoon (or whatever the fuck his name is): “…President Obama has played politics on this issue…”

Ahhh…Obama, who has been talking about his position “evolving” on this issue has, like an evil genius, picked THIS moment to capitalize on the issue for maximum political advantage!

And elsewhere:

Ralph Reed, a top organizer among religious conservatives, said Obama’s announcement was a “gift to the Romney campaign.” […] “The Obama campaign doesn’t have to worry about New York and California,” Reed said. “They have to worry about Ohio, Florida and Virginia and I don’t’ see evidence that it’s a winning issue in those states.”

and

“This decision may have made Barack Obama a one-term president,” Bob Vander Plaats the head of The Family Leader, a conservative faith group focused on politics in Iowa, said. This will stoke a part of the religious base even more against Obama, Vander Plaats said. “They were already fired up to get rid of Obama. This will only make them more on fire to get rid of Obama. And if I’m Romney today, I’m smiling,” he said.

In other words…this move was political suicide.

A politically shrewed move AND political suicide at the same time.

Clearly, Obama is Master of the Jedi mind trick….

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/6/12, 7:00 am

Revelation 9:7-10
The locusts looked like horses prepared for battle. They had what looked like gold crowns on their heads, and their faces looked like human faces. They had hair like women’s hair and teeth like the teeth of a lion. They wore armor made of iron, and their wings roared like an army of chariots rushing into battle. They had tails that stung like scorpions, and for five months they had the power to torment people.

Discuss.

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Sandbagged or Not, Support Marriage Equality

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/4/12, 5:23 pm

Dwight Pelz has pulled his support for the the marriage equality plank of the federal platform. He claims the problem is that this is an effort to embarrass Obama.

“I was unhappy to see them throw up some press release out there making it like this insurrection within the party,” Pelz says. “I wasn’t happy with them using my name,” he says, explaining that he didn’t like their tactics. “I didn’t realize it was part of a strategy to start a fight within the party and embarrass the President.”

“Frankly, I felt sandbagged.”

I appreciate that Pelz wants to support President Obama more than he cares about any particular plank in the platform. But if Obama can’t support a marriage equality plank, he deserves to be embarrassed. He’s on the wrong side of history and the wrong side of basic human decency.*

Furthermore, the Washington State Democratic platform will support marriage equality because most Washington State Democrats support marriage equality. Most of the caucus in the last session of the legislature supported marriage equality. We need a chair who will support for those values at the national level. I realize that party activists have the freedom to get ahead of elected officials on these sorts of issues, I just hope Pelz remembers that he’s an activist, not an elected official, now.

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