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The Tweet that Turned the Tide

by Lee — Saturday, 12/1/12, 10:18 pm

In my last job, I was a software test manager for a company that did most of its work out of Omaha. As a result, I developed some good friendships with the engineers there, and even after that job came to an end, I’ve been able to keep in touch with them over Facebook. About a month before the election, I saw a photo of one of my ex-co-workers, with a bunch of his buddies, sitting around the couch getting ready to watch the Cornhuskers take on Ohio State. There’s nothing unusual about that for someone living in Omaha, but what struck me was that he was born and raised in India, and the nearly 10 people in his living room were Indian-Americans as well.

It’s not news to anyone that America’s demographics continue to change. But when we talk about it in terms of politics, this trend can be hidden. Asian-Americans are now a significant voting bloc in this country, and they’ve been voting more and more Democratic in the past two decades.

Goldy posted recently about the post-mortem on Rob McKenna’s failed campaign. Republicans blame a lack of support from the national GOP, but Goldy points out that McKenna still had more money to work with. Jay Inslee just put his money towards more effective GOTV efforts rather than the silly ads that polluted the airwaves in October.

A lot of variables go into an electoral outcome, and Goldy’s certainly right that the Democrats in this state have a strong edge in GOTV and ground game. But I’m growing more and more convinced that the most significant event in this campaign was the incident in July involving a staff member with an anti-Asian tweet in her Twitter feed.

For a Republican like Rob McKenna to win in this state, he has to be completely invulnerable to being seen as a typical GOP extremist. For the most part, McKenna has always been very good at this. But finding out that a staffer had sent an offensive tweet and then taking a few days before forcing her resignation was his biggest blunder on that front.

This incident tied McKenna to one of the ugliest traits of the GOP in recent years – xenophobia – and it certainly resonated with the large Asian-American population in this state. Looking at the polling for this year, you can see that the polls abruptly shifted in Inslee’s direction right at the time that this incident occurred (week of July 16-20) and never went back.

Recently, Josh Marshall at TPM has been discussing this topic and received this note from an Indian-American in Iowa:

And as time went on, it became clear in other polling that PPP early on was on to more than just snarky telephone survey replies, there really is a disturbingly large percentage of Republicans who are openly hostile to Obama specifically because of his race, his national origin, and his partial religious ancestry. That GOP electeds from Boehner to McConnell to all the GOP Presidential candidates were unwilling to call out any of it just reinforced the point, since it established they were afraid because these people were a very large part of the GOP base. You don’t worry about calling out your own party’s cranks in public if they’re marginal figures whose votes you don’t need and don’t think you’ll lose because they have no other options…Republican candidates and electeds know that they can lose primaries for openly challenging racial and other bigoted hostility toward Obama. And all this is very personal to me. When I was a small child in Ames, Iowa, in my immigrant family, neighborhood teenagers assaulted our home regularly, pelting fruit and whatever else at our house. Several times my dad had the police come and lecture this group of kids. It was all about race, and these kids’ parents did nothing. So when Mitt Romney in a Michigan stump speech snarks that no one asked him for his birth certificate, and his GOP allies defend the racism as “just a joke,” when so many GOP federal and state electeds endorse or tacitly condone questioning of Obama’s citizenry and engage in other dog whistle racism, these are always personal attacks equally on me…if Obama is not an American and does not legitimately belong, then they’re saying the same about me. I imagine I’m not alone, that people of color across the board see what I see, and the election results confirm this.

There’s nothing more damaging to the GOP right now that the (well-earned) reputation that they’re beholden to an intolerant base, one that still defines American-ness through skin color, religion and ethnicity, not by culture and upbringing. And I’m convinced that a single intolerant thought from a brainless staffer dragged Rob McKenna too far into that cesspool.

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The Myth of “Relinquishing the Market”

by Lee — Wednesday, 11/28/12, 9:57 pm

In the Huffington Post, Lucia Graves repeats one of the biggest myths of the entire I-502 campaign:

As voters in Washington state this month legalized marijuana for recreational use, they overrode the concerted lobbying of a conspicuous interest group: The dispensaries that already had the right to sell marijuana for medical use, and who now risk relinquishing that lucrative marketplace to new competitors.

Though one might assume that legalization would be opposed primarily by law enforcement and social conservatives, nearly all of the money donated to fight the ballot measure in Washington came not from such groups but rather from the existing medical marijuana industry, according to state campaign contribution filings.

All things told, the anti-502 forces dabbled in far more fantasy and myth-making than those who supported the initiative. But the idea that the anti-502 crowd was simply a bunch of greedy dispensary owners trying to protect their turf was also a fantasy. As a supporter of the initiative, I mostly bit my tongue throughout the campaign over this point, but now that the vote passed, I feel compelled to kill off this myth once and for all.

The opposition to I-502 from the activist and medical marijuana community had two primary reasons. First, it was a result of various aspects of the bill. The per se DUI provisions were a very big part of that, but so was the lack of home growing and the 1 ounce possession limit. What New Approach Washington (the group behind I-502) saw as necessary regulations to appeal to undecided voters, many activists and medical marijuana patients saw as new open doors for the police to go after medical marijuana patients and even regular users.

The second reason was due to longtime internal divisions in the state’s activist community. When Sensible Washington was trying to get a legalization initiative on the ballot in 2010, an expected source of funding mysteriously dried up at the last minute. At the time, I tried to investigate (this was long before I had any affiliation with the group), but couldn’t get anyone to divulge what happened. The leaders of Sensible Washington blamed Alison Holcomb (who eventually founded New Approach Washington), and since then, there’s been a serious rift in the community between the two groups. If you look at the folks who were most outspoken in opposition to I-502 this year, almost all of them had some affiliation with Sensible Washington. In fact, they even wrote the No on I-502 argument for the voter’s guide.

In her post, Graves writes about how the funding for the opposition came primarily from the medical marijuana community, but that’s only because the opposition received almost no funding at all. The I-502 campaign raised $5.6 million, compared to the opposition’s $16,000. If the medical marijuana dispensaries were in such a lucrative marketplace and needed to guard their turf, they could’ve scared up far more than $16,000.

Beyond that, Graves is simply incorrect when she talks about “dispensaries that already had the right to sell marijuana for medical use”. Dispensaries in Washington state are still technically illegal (thanks to Governor Gregoire’s veto in 2011). It’s only in Seattle and a limited few other places where the authorities have generally looked the other way. In that environment, it’s possible that some folks were making good money, but just about any of those people would stand to benefit far more by becoming a totally above-board dispensary that sold to everyone. If anyone was opposing I-502 because they wanted to keep a system where they were quasi-legal and could only sell to a smaller segment of the population, they’re likely too dumb to stay in business for that long anyway.

Sadly, one of the biggest purveyors of this myth was our friend Dominic Holden from The Stranger. Back in April, he wrote this in the New York Times:

In late February, Dr. Gil Mobley, a physician with a local clinic providing medical-marijuana authorizations, began a campaign called No on I-502, a new name for a group that, before, called itself Patients Against I-502. It anticipates donations from lawyers and doctors, said its treasurer, Anthony Martinelli, and pot dispensaries may also finance a fall volley of television commercials.

Needless to say, the pot dispensaries never did that. There wasn’t a single anti-502 television ad made. And Holden never explained what basis he had for saying that. He never quoted any dispensary operators who opposed it. Nor did he explain what Mobley’s financial motive was. In fact, because I-502 bans home grows for non-patients, Mobley’s clinic will likely see increased profits from folks who still want a doctor to authorize their green thumb to cure whatever ails them. And at no point this year did anyone manage to explain how it made financial sense for the state’s few dispensary operators to oppose I-502.

At the end of Graves’ article, she quotes several dispensary operators who opposed the measure, and they all repeated what has long been known:

Trek Hollnagel, a spokesman for the Conscious Care Cooperative in Northern Seattle, also dismissed the notion that his dispensary fought the measure out of self-interest, saying that while the law does take away some patient “rights” — he again cited the provision on driving — he added it’s a victory to a certain extent, because there will be some form of arrest protection for everybody.

“I would say it’s kind of a mixed emotion,” Hollnagel said.

Hollnagel continued that the new law might be good for business, because it would make patients feel more comfortable about seeking help.

“In my professional opinion I think this will be beneficial for the cannabis industry as far as the dispensaries and all aspects of business go,” he said.

A lot of people don’t want to believe this for one reason or another, but it was the truth. Dispensary operators were somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place. They had customers who vehemently opposed the measure (and who on Facebook tried to identify dispensaries who didn’t oppose it and organize boycotts), but also knew that I-502 would have some pretty serious benefits as well. In the end, most dared not offend their customers. And now that I-502 has passed, a lot of them could potentially make a lot more money in a fully regulated system.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 11/16/12, 11:37 pm

SlateTV: The GOP’s mad rush to immigration reform.

Ed: Republicans try to reinvent themselves with minority voters.

The Losers Weepers:

  • Maddow: Republicans begin their purge.
  • Jonathan Mann: Karl Rove goes nuts.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt blames gifts.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney blames loss on Obama’s “gifts.”
  • Jon on Bill-O the Clown and the end of Traditional America.
  • Thom: The Ryan excuse.
  • Maddow: Leaderless…some Republicans learning 2012 lessons better than others
  • SlateTV: Romney’s bitter excuses.
  • Young Turks: Romney’s postmortem ‘gifts’ excuse.
  • Republicans need to stop being the stupid party.
  • The boy who couldn’t handle it.
  • SlateTV: Secession Petitions of the disgruntled.
  • Young Turks: ME GOP Chair, “Hundreds of Black people committed Voter Fraud!!!
  • Letterman: Top ten Romney Scapegoats (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: Maine G.O.P. chair on “dozens of Blacks” seen voting.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: What the G.O.P. needs from Romney.
  • Thom: Mitt Romney couldn’t be Santa
  • Buzz60: three signs Republicans haven’t learned from their losses….
  • Maddow: Romney’s final insult to the American public.
  • Jon: Look who’s still talking!
  • Young Turks: the Obama ‘mind control’ conspiracy
  • Liberal Viewer: Right wing crazies lost Romney the election.:
  • Jon and Kristen Schaal married and single women voting their viginas
  • Mitt Romney “explains” his loss (via Slog).

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: So long, Twinkies.

The five funniest campaign videos of 2012.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Mark Fiore: Newly frugal guy!

Young Turks: Rep. Allen West loses election & his grip with reality.

The Petraeus Surge:

  • Jon: Never saw it coming
  • SlateTV: Wikipedia entry mentions Broadwell-Petraeus affair in January
  • Young Turks: Pat Robertson excuses the General.
  • ONN: Petraeus is just a start.
  • TV fail: All (up) In(my snatch)?!?
  • Ann Telnaes: Your privacy.

Monika Eckhart goes to Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers’ Office.

Rush Limbaugh goes all apoplectic over a Twinkie joke petition!

Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Pap and Katrina Vanden Heuvel: Obama should get tough against GOP obstruction.

Super-duper-scandal of All Time:

  • SlateTV: McCain snaps at reporter.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: tears into Graham and McCain for hypocrisy on Rice appointment:
  • Anderson Cooper whumps Rep. Rohrabacher on Benghazi, “What you’re saying is factually not correct”
  • Al Sharpton: What the hell is going on with John McCain??
  • Ed: Bitter, hypocrite John McCain wants details, yet skips Benghazi briefing.

White House: West Wing Week.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Rewriting a blatant, malicious FAUX News conspiracy theory

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Petraeus Isn’t a Fictional Play

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 11/16/12, 8:21 pm

I’m really confused why the first third or so of this Jean Godden piece was written. I like Godden’s writing for the most part, but this is both forced and unnecessary.

New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd thinks the players in the Petraeus scandal are like Shakespeare’s MacBeth and Othello.

Every once in a while, Maureen Dowd’s editors will mention to her, “hey maybe don’t shoehorn quite so many references to the movie you just saw into a political analysis when you write your next column.” And rather than seeing that as a request to not shoehorn any piece of fiction into her column on current events, she decides it’s ol’ Shakespeare’s turn. I’ve mostly stopped reading her, but I remember it seemed for years that any mention of Hillary Clinton was accompanied by a Lady Macbeth reference.

A better analogy would be to another Shakespearean general: Coriolanus.

Even better would be to realize that this is a pointless effort and to either just write something about Petraeus, or to write about Seattle, since that’s what people go to Godden’s page for.

Shakespearean tragedies are defined by fatal character faults. MacBeth’s was envy; Othello’s was jealousy. Coriolanus, on the other hand, was driven by ambition. And that certainly seems to loom large in the Tragedy of Gen. David Petraeus: a man motivated, from the beginning, by ambition. He wowed them at West Point and climbed the social ladder by wedding the West Point Superintendent’s daughter. He climbed the ranks to earn his fourth star and embraced fame as a military idol.

I guess I should mention that there are spoilers for a play written in the early 1600’s coming up. I’d recommend the movie version of Coriolanus that came out last year if you haven’t seen it.

Anyway, OK, I see it now. When Caius Martius wins victory at Corioli it’s the same as when Petraeus married someone’s daughter. Oh, maybe it’s that his surge strategies in 2 countries killed a lot of people something something “this butterfly was a grub.” No! Here it is! Here it is: CIA drone strikes are when he teams up with Aufidius and, and, nope, I lost it. Shit.

He didn’t travel alone. He once arrived at a party (hosted by Tampa socialite Jill Kelley) at the head of a 28-car motorcade. He obviously liked having his attractive biographer Paula Broadwell hang on his every word. That he dallied with Broadwell is not too surprising given that she crafted a book that gushes with admiration.

You know what. Dude hooks up with someone too young for him. Nobody would approve, least of all their families. Lots of death follows the main character. For real, it’s a secret marriage and a couple suicides away from Romeo and Juliet. So that’s a better shoehorn! I win.

Um, I guess I should have had two spoiler alerts?

Anyway, then she gets away from the absurd comparison to describe life as a military brat her perception of military culture and says that too many people have died in Afghanistan. I have nothing against the former and agree with the later, so let’s end there.

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McMorris Rodgers To Some Position

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 11/14/12, 8:38 pm

I guess it’s good for Washington that Representative McMorris Rodgers will be the House Republican Conference Chair. I mean she’s terrible but so would anyone the GOP would pick for that role. So sure, she’s a bit better than the average GOP member at going on the Sunday shows and explaining why their garbage positions are totally awesome. So sure, good on her.

McMorris Rodgers was named chair of the House Republican Conference in a secret-ballot contest. She was vice chair.

McMorris Rodgers defeated Tom Price of Georgia, who was endorsed by vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as well as Jeb Hensarling of Texas, McMorris Rodgers’ predecessor as conference chair.

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Thirty year losing streak

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/13/12, 12:28 pm

The Seattle Times published a dreadful Op-Ed by Joe Delmore, a Seattle-based freelance writer. Delmore is mourning the defeat of Rob McKenna:

…it will continue what amounts to one-party rule of the governor’s office. Not since 1980, when an almost-forgotten John Spellman won the governorship, has a Republican gained the state’s highest office.

Because of this three-decade dry spell, Washington has gone longer than any other state in the union without having a Republican governor, according to The Weekly Standard.

Delmore does recognize part of the problem:

Like the national party, the state’s GOP has become more conservative, even reactionary, on cultural issues like abortion and gay marriage.

…but then he fails in trying to draw a parallel to the Democrats:

It’s also true that the Democratic Party has become rigidly partisan on these same cultural issues.

The Democrat’s position on abortion and gay marriage are pretty much mainstream positions, with a bit of forward-thinking social policy thrown in. In contrast, the position of many state Republicans amounts to going backward to the social policy of the 1950. Hardly equivalent.

Are there solutions? Delmore points out:

Secretary of State Sam Reed, one of the few Republicans to win statewide office, says the party must learn to appeal to more centrist voters. Former Republican state chairman Chris Vance said the party needs to know what it takes to win independents and win elections. “It is not enough to appeal to the base,” he asserted.

Both men are spot on. Moderate Republicans have become increasingly irrelevant in this state as the Clint Diddiers and John Kosters have become noisier and angrier.

But Delmore doesn’t buy it:

Those are views of a big-tent party, but won’t solve the problem for Republicans. Republicans must still remember their pragmatic conservative roots based on the fundamental values of hard work and enterprise, a belief in God and fiscal conservatism. Those quite valid ideas still attract people from all walks of life.

Ignoring that positions of the current crop of noisy Republicans bear no resemblance to true conservationism, Delmore’s prescription for Republicans seems to be, “more of the same, except for social issues.”

But isn’t this precisely what voters rejected in this past election? McKenna has always downplayed social issues. And before McKenna, Dino Rossi tried, albeit less successfully, to do the same thing. And Mike!™ McGavick, who the Seattle Times’ Joni Balter labled as taking a limited pro-choice stance, was all about hard work and enterprise. Washington voters weren’t buying what these Republicans were selling…even without the social issues.

Two closing comments. First, Delmore’s lamentations about “one party rule” ring hollow. We have these things called elections where (typically) a Republican and a Democratic candidate ends up facing off in a General election. Each candidate puts their ideas forward. The people vote for what they find compelling.

Republicans have a thirty year gubernatorial losing streak because their ideas and candidates have not resonated with the voters. The ideas and candidates from the Democratic side have.

Republicans aren’t going to start winning by embracing and shoring-up their conservative creds, while downplaying social issues. They’ve been there, done that. And failed.

Lastly, I found Mr. Delmore’s biosketch a bit odd (my emphasis):

Joe Delmore, a registered Independent, is writing a book on contemporary politics….

A “registered independent,” huh? I wonder what state he’s living in?

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Open Thread 11/12

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 11/12/12, 5:24 pm

– Happy Veterans Day.

– You have decades upon decades to contemplate what you did. But after today. After this moment. Here and now. Gabby and I are done thinking about you.

– In total, all the profiles, stage-managed and controlled by the Pentagon’s multimillion dollar public relations apparatus, built up an unrealistic and superhuman myth around the general that, in the end, did not do Petraeus or the public any favors.

– It’s pretty sweet how horribly Karly Rove and the NRA performed.

– And I think it’s a nice counter-narrative that Romney did worse with Mormons than George W. Bush.

– It’s strange to read Lindy West review a film positively, but I agree with everything she says about Lincoln.

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Rep. Reichert had a role in C.I.A. Director Petraeus’ resignation

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/10/12, 10:33 pm

The tale of Petraeus’ resignation now involves two jealous women, a threatening note from one to the other and, ultimately, an FBI investigation of intimate relationships and potential security breaches.

The F.B.I. found no security breaches.

But one F.B.I. employee wasn’t convinced:

Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, said Saturday an F.B.I. employee whom his staff described as a whistle-blower told him about Mr. Petraeus’s affair and a possible security breach in late October, which was after the investigation had begun.
[…]

Mr. Cantor talked to the person after being told by Representative Dave Reichert, Republican of Washington, that a whistle-blower wanted to speak to someone in the Congressional leadership about a national security concern. On Oct. 31, his chief of staff, Steve Stombres, called the F.B.I. to tell them about the call.

Here is what I don’t understand. If the whistle-blower wanted to speak to “Congressional leadership,” shouldn’t Reichert have taken this person to Speaker Boehner? Reichert brought this person to Majority Leader Cantor, who is only the leader of the House Republicans, not Congress.

What’s wrong with Reichert? Is the man brain damaged or something?

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Weekend Roundup

by Lee — Saturday, 11/10/12, 8:53 pm

With the passage of I-502, I’m hoping to get back into some more regular blogging here. I’ve waited a long time for this day, and now that it’s here, I want to closely follow how this all plays out. Here are some of the early developments in this new era:

– You’ve probably already seen the news that King and Pierce Counties have dismissed 220 marijuana possession cases. But at the end of that post from Jonathan Martin was another interesting nugget:

Earlier this week, the chief criminal deputy prosecutor in Spokane County, Jack Driscoll, appeared to take a more conservative position. He told the Spokesman-Review that, even after Dec. 6, the only marijuana which was legal to possess was pot sold in the state-licensed stores called for in I-502. Those stores won’t be created for at least a year.

“The only thing that is legal is selling marijuana through those stores,” Driscoll said. “That will be regulated by the state. You can’t under this initiative have an ounce of marijuana that doesn’t come from a state-issued provider. You still can’t have black-market marijuana.”

Looking forward to the first judge who gets to laugh out loud at that argument.

– One of the most interesting things to watch now is the international reaction to what Colorado and Washington voters have done. Especially in Mexico, where over $1,000,000,000/year pours into the pockets of drug gangs from the illegal marijuana trade.

– NCAA student-athletes in both Washington and Colorado still won’t be able to use marijuana, even if they’re over 21. Last year, Pullman police arrested several Washington State basketball players for pot possession. Considering that underage use is still illegal, that’s likely to keep happening.

– Of course, even with the passage of marijuana legalization, reefer madness isn’t going to just disappear. This gem – from the New York Daily News, but featuring a “chemical dependency professional” at Argosy University in Seattle – is about how this initiative will somehow cause Boeing and Microsoft to suck at building planes and software unless the feds intervene. As someone who worked at both companies in my 20s (quite successfully) while also being a regular marijuana consumer, I’m not sure I even know how to start making fun of that. It’s a good reminder that even though initiatives can fix a broken policy, they can’t fix stupid.

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Fox News Viewers Exit The Stock Market

by Jimmy — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 5:55 pm

Well, not exactly… but since I, nor anyone else, know how to make the connection to the markets and Fox News watching investors, it’s only an amusing assumption.

Box Fizzness:

“Given the opposing views on the speed and degree of fiscal consolidation necessary, the status quo outcome implies difficult negotiations ahead on the fiscal cliff … and the debt ceiling,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note to clients.

Reading recent Krugman makes you wonder if that loyalty has in fact spread past the republican caucus.

Given the starkness of this difference, you might have expected to see people from both sides of the political divide urging voters to cast their ballots based on the issues. Lately, however, I’ve seen a growing number of Romney supporters making a quite different argument. Vote for Mr. Romney, they say, because if he loses, Republicans will destroy the economy.

I’d come to the conclusion some time ago that watching TV news is not a healthy activity. And as dangerous as irrational exuberance is, I’d add that the dangers of irrational pessimism are equally as bad. But if we were to have a Jonestown style fiscal suicide among conservative investors, the dirty rotten little liberal in me hopes it happens just before a robust Obama economic resurgence. And despite my health advisory, I’ll watch the squealing on Fox News.

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Open Thread 11/5

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 11/5/12, 8:03 am

– You’re going to vote for the liar. Because he shares your moral values.

– I’m both horrified at the GOP disenfranchisement machine and awed that people are pressing ahead in spite of it.

– It’s not all irrational programing at Fox News?

– Bales himself will not make any statements during the Article 32 hearing. The court proceeding in Tacoma is similar to a pretrial hearing in civilian courts. It’s scheduled to last at least one week.

– A West Seattle man accused of attacking a gay man with a bat while shouting homophobic slurs now faces a hate crime charge.

– This is as good an explanation for the trolls as anything.

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Poll Analysis: Interesting polls, no movement

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/4/12, 11:15 pm


Obama Romney
98.3% probability of winning 1.7% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis yesterday showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 309 to 229 electoral votes. Obama would be expected to win an election now with an 98.9% probability and Romney, 1.1%.

Today I found a pack of 29 polls that cover 17 states. The polls have something to celebrate for the Romney camp—ties in a New Hampshire and a Pennsylvania poll, a small lead in a Michigan poll, and a lead in the only Florida poll. But the Obama camp has some celebrating of their own, including leads in three Ohio polls, leads in three of four Pennsylvania polls and, perhaps most importantly, solidifying his formerly tenuous lead in Virginia with two more leads in VA polls.

Altogether…it’s a wash. The expected electoral votes are split identically. Romney’s probability of winning an election goes up ever so slightly, however.

Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1080 3.0 46 53 R+7
FL Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 50 R+2
IN Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 600 4.0 43 52 R+9
IA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1122 2.9 50 48 O+2
ME Critical Insights 30-Oct 31-Oct 613 4.0 49 42 O+7
MA UMass 31-Oct 03-Nov 800 4.1 57 37 O+20
MA WNEU 26-Oct 01-Nov 525 4.2 58 38 O+20
MI PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 700 3.7 52 46 O+6
MI Baydoun 02-Nov 02-Nov 1913 2.2 46.2 46.9 R+0.7
MN SurveyUSA 01-Nov 03-Nov 556 4.2 52 41 O+11
MO PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 835 3.4 45 53 R+8
MT PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 836 3.4 45 52 R+7
MT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 43 53 R+10
MT Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 43 53 R+10
NH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1550 2.5 50 48 O+2
NH U NH 31-Oct 02-Nov 502 4.4 48 48 tie
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 46 O+2
OH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1000 3.1 52 47 O+5
PA PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 790 3.5 52 46 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 01-Nov 03-Nov 430 5.0 49 46 O+3
PA Susquehanna 29-Oct 31-Oct 800 3.5 47 47 tie
PA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 46 O+3
UT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 25 70 R+45
VA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1
VA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 975 3.1 51 47 O+4
WA PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 932 3.2 53 46 O+7
WI PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1256 2.8 51 48 O+3
WI Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1

The only Florida poll puts Romney over Obama by +2%. Romney now has four of the five current polls, and an estimated 74% probability of taking the state in an election held tonight.

Iowa has Obama up by +2% in a new poll. This state is looking like a lock for Obama. He has led in seven of the eight current polls. Even if the margins are small, the simulation gives Obama a 97% probability that his overall +3% lead is real.

In Michigan, Obama leads Romney by +6% in one new poll, and Romney leads Obama by +0.7% in the other. And that second poll is a monster, with over 1,900 respondents. Putting the five current polls together, Obama is down to a +2.8% lead and a 90% probability of taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading by a comfortable +11%, a margin that when combined with two more modest margins in the current polls suggests an almost certain win. I might not have even mentioned this poll, except that, in the previous presidential poll analysis thread, Serial Conservative pointed out a Minnesota poll that had Romney up by +1% in the state! He did add the point: “Not sure whether this meets the qualifications for inclusion in Darryl’s analyses.”

So, I dutifully investigated (were it a weekday, I would have called the pollster). This poll was done for American Future Fund, a 501(c)(4) organization that has a long track record of producing and airing factually challenged anti-Obama ads. That isn’t a good start. But what I found is a record of candidate polls being released. That makes it pretty certain that the MN poll was released selectively.

Why does it matter? Consider this. Suppose some 501(c)(4) hit machine hires Mr. P to do 20 polls over several months in a race between Ms. D and Mr. R. And Mr. P is a scrupulous pollster. As it happens, the first 19 polls showed Ms. D leading by margins of +6 to +11. But, just because of the sampling variability in polling that 20th poll comes in with Ms. D up by only +1%. Mr. P’s client releases the poll to show how competitive the race is—good strategy, bad statistics. Of course, the race isn’t close. The client got one of those one-in-twenty results for a race that is really about Ms. D+8%. Mr. P hasn’t done anything wrong. But the released poll suffers from selectivity bias because the other 19 polls were not also released. Releasing only the Ms. D+1% poll is completely misleading as to the actual state of the race.

So…where were we?

Oh…yes, New Hampshire gives us two new polls. One has Obama up by +2% and the other is a tie. Obama takes the other three current polls by mostly narrow margins. Obama would win the state with an 88% probability in a race this evening.

Another day, another sprinkling of Ohio polls. All three go to Obama by smallish margins. Obama leads in seven of nine current polls, and there is one tie. The evidence is overwhelming, suggesting Obama would win an election now by a 98% probability.

Suddenly there is interest in Pennsylvania! Of the four new polls, Obama leads in three, and one is a tie. The four current polls (all added today) combine to give Obama an 89% probability of winning the election now.

The big surprise is the new set of polls from Virginia. One gives Obama a +1% lead, and the other a +4% edge. This solidifies the slight lead in the state that Obama took yesterday. The three current polls now have Obama’s chances at a 77% probability of taking the state.

Obama just squeaks by in two new Wisconsin polls (+1% and +3%). The collection of six current polls (one tie and five Obama leads) have Obama with a 97% probability of winning the state now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,318 times and Romney wins 1,682 times (including the 144 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.3% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.7% (+0.6%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2011 to 04 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Obama gains

by Darryl — Friday, 11/2/12, 12:17 pm


Obama Romney
94.4% probability of winning 5.6% probability of winning
Mean of 302 electoral votes Mean of 236 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.

A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.

Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1246 2.9 50.1 46.7 O+3.4
CO Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 47 50 R+3
CO CNN/OR 26-Oct 31-Oct 764 3.5 50 48 O+2
FL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1146 3.0 48.9 49.8 R+0.9
FL Gravis Marketing 30-Oct 30-Oct 549 4.2 47 50 R+3
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
FL SurveyUSA 25-Oct 27-Oct 595 4.1 47.1 47.1 tie
GA SurveyUSA 25-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 43.7 52.0 R+8.3
IL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1198 3.0 57 41 O+16
IN Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 753 — 42.2 55.4 R+13.1
IA Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 750 4.0 48 49 R+1
IA WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1174 3.0 48.8 47.3 O+1.5
IA PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 676 3.8 50 45 O+5
IA Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1142 3.0 50 44 O+6
MA Suffolk 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 63.0 31.2 O+31.8
MA Boston Globe 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 56 39 O+17
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MI Glengarif Group 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 47.5 45.0 O+2.5
MI EPIC/MRA 26-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 48 42 O+6
MN SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 50 43 O+7
MO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1217 2.9 42.2 53.8 R+11.6
MT Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 799 — 42.7 50.4 R+7.8
NE Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 761 — 38.8 58.1 R+19.3
NE2 Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 44 49 R+5
NV SurveyUSA 23-Oct 29-Oct 1212 2.9 50 46 O+4
NH Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1013 3.0 49 47 O+2
NC PPP 29-Oct 31-Oct 730 3.6 49 49 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 628 3.8 45 50 R+5
ND Mason-Dixon 26-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 40 54 R+14
ND Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 752 — 37.8 54.7 R+16.9
OH PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH SurveyUSA 26-Oct 29-Oct 603 4.1 47.5 44.9 O+2.6
OH Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 765 — 49.0 46.3 O+2.7
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OR Elway 25-Oct 28-Oct 405 5.0 47 41 O+6
OR Hoffman Res 24-Oct 25-Oct 615 — 47 42 O+5
PA Keystone Poll 23-Oct 28-Oct 547 4.2 49 45 O+4
RI WPRI 24-Oct 27-Oct 601 4.0 54 33 O+21
TX U TX 15-Oct 21-Oct 800 3.5 39 55 R+16
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Quinnipiac 23-Oct 28-Oct 1074 3.0 49 47 O+2
VA Roanoke College 23-Oct 26-Oct 638 4.0 44 49 R+5
WA SurveyUSA 28-Oct 31-Oct 555 4.2 54 40 O+14
WA Washington Poll 18-Oct 31-Oct 632 3.9 56.4 35.9 O+20.5
WI PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 825 3.4 50 45 O+5
WI Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 49 49 tie
WI Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1065 3.0 49 46 O+3
WI St. Nobert 25-Oct 29-Oct 1065 5.0 51 42 O+9
WI Marquette 25-Oct 28-Oct 1243 2.8 51 43 O+8

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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HA Mormon Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 10/28/12, 7:00 am

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Doctrine and Covenants 130:22
The Father has a body of flesh and bones as tangible as man’s; the Son also; but the Holy Ghost has not a body of flesh and bones, but is a personage of Spirit. Were it not so, the Holy Ghost could not dwell in us.

Discuss.

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Worse than Bush–Cheney?!?

by Darryl — Friday, 10/26/12, 12:19 am

Over at The Ave a guest editorial appears from Robert called, “The Worst Case Scenario” (my emphasis):

Assuming Romney & Ryan (these lethal bozo’s should not have even been close) win their attitude of extreme conservative austerity, the sworn oath of the Tea party politicians to never raise taxes on the wealthy and the republican obsession to regain power by sabotaging the black man’s presidency at any cost will result in America’s very own holocaust. The next four years will include a collapse of the American economy, drastically increased unemployment, destroy the social safety net, gut the public schools system, close the US Post Office, deprive millions of healthcare, expand the war on collective bargaining and working people, on women, on the underemployed, on minorities, end fair elections, end affordable higher education, reinforce a corporate dominated supreme court, keep money in politics, start unnecessary wars resulting in millions of casualties, destabilize world peace, put global warming on steroids which could be the beginning of the end of the human species. The Tea party republicans then would give the trillions they skin for social services to the already obscenely rich and a bloated military.

Robert argues his case from these premises.

To me, the essay is a little over the top, and a little on the pessimistic side. But it raises a good question: “What is the worst case scenario for a Romney–Ryan presidency?”

I remember when Shrub more-or-less won in 2000. I imagined that we were in for a depressing four years in which not much got accomplished except the decimation of the responsible fiscal budgetary policy of the Clinton administration.

And then came 9/11.

Rather than impeaching the President for ignoring a memo titled, “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US”, America reacted by turning over and playing dead.

The nine years that followed were a worst case scenario, from throwing fiscal responsibility totally out the window, starting two wars, including one that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, allowing N. Korea to develop and test a nuclear weapon, providing for unprecedented powers of spying on the American people, creation of the seemingly biblically inspired Department of Homeland Security and the fucking TSA (together a huge expansion of the federal government), sanctioned torture in our name, indefinite detention, vilification of Islam, and the Roberts/Alito court.

And the whole clusterfuck was capped by the collapse and near-ruin of the U.S. economy.

Man…that was some shitty scenario! But not really on the level of a holocaust—except, maybe, what happened in Iran.

Would a Romney–Ryan administration be worse than that? I cannot imagine it so…

But, then again, I could not foresee the profound wounds that the Bush–Cheney administration would end up inflicting on my country.

So what do you think? Am I not pessimistic enough? Is Robert too pessimistic? Seriously, what is the likely and the worst case scenarios from a Romney–Ryan administration?

Just how bad could it get?

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