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Study It To Death

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 1/10/14, 5:51 pm

I suppose in a way it’s progress that the GOP are pretending to give a shit about the science of global warming instead of just sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling “we’re in the majority in the State Senate, so lalalala I can’t hear you.” But this seems more like a PR friendly version of that.

The GOP statement from Sen. Ericksen and Rep. Short said CLEW’s work assignment—crunching the data on any proposed solutions—needed to add another year. In their press release, Sen. Ericksen, also chair of the senate’s environment committee, said: “It is vital that legislators receive accurate information about the economic costs and the potential environmental benefits surrounding any carbon-reduction efforts.”

Some of the things in the mix: a carbon tax, a cap and trade system, expanding hydro capacity, investing in nuclear power, and foregoing “coal-by-wire”—transmitting coal-generated electricty from out of state. (The legislature passed a historic bill back in 2011 phasing out the state’s last existing coal-powered plant.)

And look, I’m all for studying things more. Yay! We can, and should continuously update legislation. But at a certain point, complaining about the fact that we don’t know for certain all of the possible impacts of a policy is just a way to kill that policy. For we also don’t know all of the impacts of doing nothing for another year. In any event, if that was a concern before, they could have raised it before.

It isn’t like we’re stuck with any policy for ever. If a cap and trade strategy is as bad as Ericksen pretends to fear, it can be adjusted or gotten rid of. I’m glad to see that the Democrats will actually push for something.

Ranker’s press release, which came second in the volley (he says he got a text from Ericksen the previous night alerting him that the Republicans thought the CLEW process should continue, but was caught off guard by the press release which he disparaged as “negotiating in the media”), was brief:

“I was surprised to see the press release from the Republicans on the CLEW committee, especially considering all sides were still talking and weighing options. While I’m disappointed, I’m also optimistic that Gov. Inslee, Rep. Fitzgibbon and I can continue to work on solutions to this very serious issue that impacts every person in our state and planet. Doing nothing is the only option not on the table.”

If the GOP were willing to show themselves as good faith actors, their let’s wait another year theatrics might be worth something. As it is, it’s probably fair to say they’re hoping to have an excuse to not do anything until the next election.

I suspect there will be more and more demands to study things as an excuse for inaction in the coming session. That’s really too bad.

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Paramount

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 1/10/14, 8:02 am

The State Supreme Court issued an order that the legislature isn’t on track to fully fund education by 2017:

“The State clearly made strides in 2013, which should not be overlooked: But the court is very concerned that measured by the current rate of progress, the state is not going to be in compliance with the constitution by the 2017-18 school year,” wrote Chief Justice Barbara Madsen.

The order, signed by eight of nine justices — conservative Justice Jim Johnson did not sign — told the Legislature to deliver a plan by April to phase in a full school funding plan.

The Legislature did budget $982 million in 2013 to bolster education, but the court noted that this amounted to only a 6.7 percent increase over the current, constitutionally inadequate level of support to the state’s public schools.

In the post looking forward to the legislative session, I’d said that there probably wouldn’t be too many accomplishments, and that probably still holds. But maybe this will actually shake some money loose for education. Hopefully it doesn’t come from further dismantling the social safety net. I’m not sure that education works as well as possible for hungry children.

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Open Thread 1/9

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 1/9/14, 7:43 am

– Is this process for picking a new police chief going to produce different results than the last one?

– Jeff Merkley is a real hero on unemployment insurance, but it’s godawful that it has to come up at all.

– Oh my am I glad the people who gave us the Iraq war aren’t in power right now.

– I love that building

– In the last open thread, I said that Melissa Harris Perry was right to apologize, and I stand by that. But I also agree that there is a context.

– Holy shit Chris Christie.

– Nine years later he publicly came out of the closet, and has since made it his mission to ensure that lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or questioning (LGBTQ) athletes don’t have to wait until their playing days are over to be themselves.

– Ham proceeds to retcon the early chapters of Genesis, shuffling the chronology a bit and turning parts of Chapter 5 into a flashback preceding Chapter 4 — all in the name of a “literal” reading of the text. But throughout this fast-talking and dealing from the bottom of the text Ham seems to realize that the core problem he’s facing here is the disturbingly Flowers-in-the-Attic scenario necessitated by insisting on a single original family of original humans.

– I don’t mind people taking pictures of everything, but don’t block other people’s view.

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Socalize That

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 1/8/14, 6:43 pm

I’m not sure where to put the blame for the Gigabit Squared deal falling apart. Murray says it was trouble when he came into office, but I suspect he’ll say that about a lot of things McGinn started did that he doesn’t want to do.

Mayor Ed Murray has declared the city’s deal with startup broadband company Gigabit Squared dead. In fact, the city’s deal with the company may have been doomed before Murray was even elected.

“We understand the Gigabit problems had developed before the election,” Murray told PSBJ reporter Marc Stiles in an interview last week.

Whatever the reason, it’s too bad. I’m a few blocks outside of the coverage area, so it doesn’t hit me personally, at least in the beginning. But regardless, if they can’t provide the service, the need for that high speed relatively cheap Internet is still there. Tech companies and other businesses will have a choice of where to locate, and that will certainly be in the calculus. People will decide where to live, and that will be part of the decision. For people who want to live in the city, it’s a quality of life issue.

Fortunately, Seattle is blessed with a utility in Seattle City Light that is already good at delivering a vital service city wide relatively inexpensively. So it should be easier for us to do this than most places. As such, I was glad to see Mayor Murray say this:

“It’s a utility, in my mind,” Murray said. “The city has done a very good job of providing affordable electric rates because we have a public utility. So I think there are a variety of models, including a hybrid model that might get that affordability.”

When something can and should be done but the private sector can’t or won’t do it, it’s time to consider how else to provide that service. It seems like something Seattle can do as a city.

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Open Thread 1/6

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 1/6/14, 7:52 am

– To protect and serve, I guess.

– Melissa Harris-Perry was right to apologize.

– I grew up as a Southern Baptist, where gays weren’t just sinners — they were a donation strategy.

– The website for the campaign for the $15 minimum wage is up now.

– Congrats to Boeing on the occasion of forgetting that you get what you pay for.

– Are we glad the Seahawks will face the Saints?

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Open Thread 1/3

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 1/3/14, 7:42 am

Because we need another open thread.

– I Was An NFL Player Until I Was Fired By Two Cowards And A Bigot

– What the fuck, Border Patrol?

– Run Goldy.

– Hey, schools and other public institutions. Handle rape allegations better.

– Many of the people advocating this theory are religious leaders — church people who criticize government for not “allowing” the churches room to care for the poor and the jobless through private charity. Here’s their chance to put their money where their mouth is. Here’s their chance to prove they’ve been speaking truth and not just spouting hateful anti-poor garbage.

– The gun show loophole will almost certainly be on the ballot in November.

– I will have to stop using American idioms.

– OK, I’m going to be back to normal next week. I think it’ll still be Monday-Tuesday-Thursday open threads, but if you’d prefer Monday-Wednesday-Friday threads, let me know and I’ll consider it.

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Open Thread 12/27

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 12/27/13, 8:03 am

I haven’t done an Open Thread in like a week. Rather than collecting links, I’ve been not doing that, but here goes:

– Too big to jail sounds like a facile little slogan but it appears to be completely accurate

– Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) Signups/Applications (h/t to my friend R)

– Cascadian politics and how we vote in a primary around here

– In a few years when gay marriage is just “marriage”, there’s going to be a reckoning.

– The White Center food bank needs volunteers.

– The Life’s Not Fair doctrine

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Open Thread 12/20

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 12/20/13, 5:10 pm

– The (Catholic High School) kids are all right.

– Linda Thomas’ goodbye to KIRO and Cienna Madrid’s goodbye to Stranger readers.

– I’m glad the city is looking into ways to not discourage marijuana tourism, but I find it a bit odd that it’s coming from the City Attorney’s office.

– Phil Robertson’s America

– Civilization doesn’t have to be a casino.

– At least it doesn’t have fucking video ads.

– I wold totally play about 8 of these, if given the chance.

– Holy shit were bus drivers awesomesauce this morning.

– I imagine my posting will be lighter than usual in the next few weeks, but really, your reading will be lighter, so it all balances out.

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FAUX News and voter fraud fraud

by Darryl — Thursday, 12/19/13, 12:00 pm

FAUX News’ Eric Shawn engages in a bit of fraud about voter fraud yesterday in an article headlined Non-citizens caught voting in 2012 presidential election in key swing state.

The article points out that Ohio’s SOS found that “17 non-citizens illegally cast ballots in the 2012 presidential election,” and then claims that “[t]he alleged crime would be a notable case of voter fraud in a key swing state.”

Oooohhh…17 votes in a key swing state! That must be bad.

Or not. First, calling isolated cases of illegal votes by individuals “voter fraud” is bullshit.

The term “fraud” suggests an illegal act designed to ensure a particular election result. An individual has almost no chance of ever changing the outcome of an election with an illegal vote. Doing so requires: (1) a perfect 50-50 “legitimate” election outcome, (2) casting an illegal (and, therefore, decisive) vote, and (3) not getting caught. The first is exceedingly unlikely in any election, the last becomes decreasingly likely as the outcome approaches a tie—because of recounts and the scrutiny that comes with legal challenges to a close election.

The term “election fraud” should be limited to cases where multiple illegal votes are cast, and unless it is an election official manipulating the election machinery, election fraud by illegal votes would typically require cooperation among a fairly large group of people. With a large enough conspiracy, an election could, potentially, be swayed—but the chances of the conspiracy being uncovered also goes up with the number of people involved.

The FAUX News article goes on to state, “President Obama beat Mitt Romney in Ohio by just 2 percentage points in November 2012.” Oh. My. God. Clearly, those 17 votes were important.

Slate’s David Weigel points out the REAL fraud going on here:

Did you catch that, how Shawn pivoted from the number of total votes to the percentage of votes? Why would he do that? Without reading his mind, I’d guess it’s because the actual Ohio margin between Obama and Romney last year was 166,272 votes, and Shawn wants to keep his readers as ignorant as posssible. Seventeen votes represents 0.0003 percent of the total of ballots cast for either Obama or Romney in the state, and 0.01 percent of the margin.

Reporters who are brighter and less dishonest than Shawn have come away from the Husted data with a different take. There was, according to [Ohio SOS Jon] Husted, no plot to steal votes or fake votes in the 2012 election. The noncitizens who voted had driver’s licenses, so basic voter ID laws wouldn’t have stopped them.

The voter fraud illusion continues with a favorite slight of hand used by the voter fraud alarmists: a switch away from illegal or fraudulent votes to messiness in the voter rolls.

Husted also found that 274 non-citizens remain on the voting rolls.
[…]

As part of Ohio’s efforts to clean up the voting rolls, election officials discovered that more than 257,000 dead people were still listed as active voters.

In addition, election authorities note they have drastically reduced the number of duplicate registrations, from 340,000 in 2011 to just four this past November — and that more than 370,000 Ohio voters who have moved have been contacted to update their voting information.

It doesn’t seem like much of a conspiracy that 257,000 dead people have failed to remove themselves from the voter rolls. What about the duplicate registrations and the ones where voters have moved and not updated their registration?

Here is a relevant anecdote. Some of you may remember “Mr. Cynical” who dumped his little nuggets of wisdom in the HA comment threads for many years. Mr. Cynical was deeply “concerned” about voter fraud in Washington. I know who Mr. Cynical is and where he used to live in Washington state. Even two years ago—several years after he moved out of state—Mr. Cynical was still listed on the voter roll in the Washington county in which he no longer resided. Apparently HA’s own voter fraud concern troll was engaging in a little election FRAUD!!!11!1!!

Or maybe not. I used to check his registration periodically to see if he actually voted. He didn’t. It seems he simply forgot to cancel his registration in Washington until he became an “inactive voter” and was eventually purged.

I’m willing to bet that the vast majority of those duplicate and “moved” registrations result from the “nefarious” act of people forgetting to cancel their registration when moving.

If only there was some way of automating the process of transferring voter registration for voters who move. In fact, there is.

The National Voter Registration Act, enacted in 1993, has a provision that requires state’s license registration agencies to forward license address changes to county election boards in order to keep their voter roles clean. So, at least, moves within the state should be cleaned quickly.

Ohio was a bit sluggish in compliance with the law:

This month [May, 2013], the [Ohio] secretary of state’s office began distributing change of address information from driving records to county boards of elections at least twice a week. That information can then be used by the county boards to update addresses for registered voters.

Effectively sharing that data is a component of the voter registration act. Despite being law since 1993, Ohio was not in compliance with that requirement.

Much of the messiness in the Ohio voter roles is a consequence of taking 20 years to comply with the National Voter Registration Act.

Rather than pointing this out, FAUX News uses the numbers to insinuate a sense of chaos in our electoral process. To my mind, that make them co-conspirators in Karl Rove’s voter fraud fraud.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 12/17/13, 3:35 pm

DLBottleTonight is our last meeting of the year, so please join us for a pint of wassial or ale at this holiday edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We won’t be meeting for the following two Tuesdays (Christmas eve and New Years eve).

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening (well…with a few holiday exceptions) at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week.

Tonight the Tri-Cities and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood and South Seattle chapters meets this Wednesday. For Thursday, the Spokane and Tacoma chapters meet.

With 212 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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American Values

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 12/16/13, 6:50 pm

Cathy McMorris Rodgers is being horrible again.

“This is a Democrat party that has no interest in working with Republicans — one that’s openly hostile to American values and the Constitution,” said McMorris Rodgers, a member of the House Republican Leadership.

House Speaker John Boehner and Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, R-Washington. They have resisted strong, Senate-passed Violence Against Women Act bill, but appear resigned to letting it pass.R-Wash., Republican leaders in the House

McMorris Rodgers did not identify which “American values” to which her Democratic colleagues, including eight in the Washington delegation, are hostile.

“Just look at President Obama’s actions on Obamacare and immigration — he has been using unprecedented executive power to rule by decree: The Left will stop at nothing to achieve their goals,” added McMorris Rodgers.

Man, the imaginary Obama is really a horrible person. Why first he gets a moderate health care plan through Congress and then he doesn’t support repealing it! Then he supports immigration reform and takes some minor actions on the fringes that are well within his power as he waits to push reform more broadly and still deports lots of people! Is there nothing this monster isn’t capable of?

Seriously, there have been things that the executive has done that I don’t like: NSA spying is too far, and as I say, I wish there were a lot fewer deportations. Mostly though, it’s the routine executive overreach that we see in every administration. But she can’t very well write a fundraising letter, “Obama has a rather broad interpretation of his war powers, but it’s less than Bush, who I supported. Also, most other presidents since Adams almost got us into an undeclared war with the French have had a pretty broad idea of their war powers. Finally, the drone program that I supported under Bush is following it’s natural course, but we should probably reign it in. A contribution of $25, $50, or $100 will make sure we can continue to have nonsense hearings on whatever the right wing echo chamber is blathering on about now.”

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UW President Michael Young is an Embezzler

by Darryl — Thursday, 12/12/13, 3:17 pm

UW President Michael Young just got a raise to $570,000 . But, under his hiring agreement, he would receive an additional million in “deferred compensation” if he stays through 2016.

Presumably, all this compensation is based on Young’s “fitness” to serve the lofty role as a University President. In creating that contract, the Board of Regents inherently expressed a belief that Young has the temperament, wisdom, and values to lead the state’s premier institution of higher learning—to serve as the state’s intellectual commander-in-chief, if you will.

But given his recent public statement, it’s a façade. Rather than serving as a thoughtful steward of our state’s intellectual life, he has succumb to FOX News style truth-is-whatever-makes-me-feel-redeemed punditry.

And that makes him an embezzler—after millions of our tax dollars.

I know, I know, that doesn’t sound like he is an embezzler in the classic sense. I mean, it’s not like he is actually stealing money he isn’t entitled to. And, granted, he really does have a contract for his salary. But hear me out….

You see, I used to believe that accuracy and truthfulness in describing things like “embezzler” were an important part of being a writer, thinker, and all-around good citizen. But, I’ve recently learned that intellectual honesty isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. I’ve learned that sometimes it is okay to be incendiary to get people’s attention.

Where did I learn how to avoid being encumbered by truth? Why…from President Young, himself!

Last week, Young claimed that Washington State’s Guaranteed Education Tuition (GET) plan is “a strange program—a Ponzi scheme, essentially.” (ST link).

The statement is entirely inaccurate. GET is nothing at all like a Ponzi scheme. Calling it a Ponzi scheme defies the actual definition of a Ponzi scheme.

Such a statement coming from the U.W. President is absolutely stunning! Is it now okay for a University President to, essentially, lie to the citizens of the state. Is it moral for Young to belittle 150,000 families by suggesting they have invested in “vaporware” for their children that is really just the opposite (i.e. guaranteed)? Is it right for a University President to besmirch a functioning program that is the only sure financial path to a college education for many middle class Washington families?

Through a spokesperson we learn that Young’s use of “Ponzi scheme” is “a handy quip to explain what he perceives as the financial fragility of the GET program.”

The Seattle Times’ columnist Danny Westneat takes Young to task over his misleading words:

“No, GET is not like a Ponzi scheme, not at all,” said state Treasurer Jim McIntire, when I asked him about Young’s comment. “I would hope that what was going on here is that he misspoke.”

GET, or Guaranteed Education Tuition, is factually not like a Ponzi scheme, except in the most superficial ways. For starters, it’s an open book. Last month it got an “A” risk rating from the state actuary. It has $2.5 billion invested, in federal bonds and equity funds, that last year returned a healthy 16 percent.

Westneat’s “most superficial way” is, essentially, that there is investment and, therefore, risk—you know, like any insurance program, any retirement plan, loans, layaway, venture capital, real estate purchases, or even just investing in a college education. They’re all fuckin Ponzi schemes because someone is taking some kind of risk. Hell…by this definition even Young invested in a Ponzi scheme when he agreed to deferred compensation, because there is some chance he will not last until 2016. Man…what a gullible bozo to fall for that old Ponzi scheme!

But to be fair, we should hear Young’s side of the story. Westneat to the rescue:

“It’s incendiary, I admit,” Young said when I called him. “But this can be a real go-along to get-along community. You have to be a little incendiary around here to get people’s attention.”

Young said the GET program, because it’s a defined-benefit plan (it pledges to pay no matter what happens to the investments), is a ticking time bomb. He compared it to Detroit going bankrupt in part due to its crippling defined-benefit pensions.

“It’s 100 percent predictable that this is going to go south,” Young said. “It might be fine now, but let’s have this conversation six years from now. It’s going to need an infusion of capital to prop it up.”

That’s not what the state actuary predicts. But I can’t say who’s right.

I see…it’s because Detroit. Nevermind that there are 20,000 cities in the U.S. and the vast majority have not been crippled by defined-benefits pensions. There is a reason that Detroit went bankrupt, and the root cause isn’t the pension obligations!

So, that’s why I can say he is an embezzler. Not because he has stolen any money. He’s fine right now but, hey, let’s have this conversation two years from now. I’m just sayin’. And, it’s okay to be “just sayin’” in an incendiary way, because I’m just trying to get people’s attention. Think of it as a handy quip to point out the fragile position that Young put himself and the University in.

Thanks to President Young, truth be damned, we can all behave like FOX News pundits!

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Open Thread 12/9

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 12/9/13, 7:58 am

– I try not to link to the same blog twice in one open thread, but there are two really good pieces at Seattle Transit Blog recently. So please, either read this about standing on the bus or this on the rail options to Ballard. But not both!!!

– 6 questions for the media about the Soho anti-prostitution raids

– In the larger context, note that when the Obama administration moves the U.S. Embassy to the Holy See closer to the Vatican, the right deems it “anti-religion.” When conservative slam the pope’s economic views, that’s fine.

– Things that aren’t gaffes if they’re fine in context aren’t gaffes.

– I knew most of the Mark Driscoll is terrible stuff here, but it’s helpful to see it in one place.

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Or Less

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 12/6/13, 3:12 pm

In the last post, I estimated the cost of legislating for all of the states that were competing to give Boeing all of the tax breaks was probably millions of dollars. Of course right after I hit send, I stumbled across this piece on how much legislators have claimed for the session (s/r link). Obviously, there are other costs like security, staff time, and keeping the lights on. But the cost is actually less than I would have guessed. So maybe it didn’t reach into the millions and I should probably be more careful about the numbers make up as examples, even when they’re obviously made up.

The tab for last month’s three-day special session to approve tax breaks for Boeing stands at $28,626 and counting, the most recent reports filed by legislators show.

Requests for the $90 per diem that legislators can claim have been processed, with some filling only for a day or two and some not requesting any. Some expense vouchers for travel to and from Olympia by senators might not come in until February

Because legislators can be reimbursed for driving expenses at 56.5 cents a mile, the biggest payments went to Eastern Washington representatives and senators who travel the farthest.

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Open Thread 12/5

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 12/5/13, 7:54 am

– Yay for Bill Clinton saying states should decide for themselves if they’re going to legalize marijuana and all. Still, he was president, and he didn’t really move in that direction. Obviously states have forced the issue since he left office, but he was president.

– Instead, the racial battlegrounds of the Obama era have settled on a series of more ambiguous controversies. Conservatives have made endless jokes based on the strange premise that Obama is unable to express coherent thoughts unless reading from a teleprompter, defined health-care reform as “reparations,” imagined a Reagan-era program to subsidize telephone use for the indigent is actually “Obamaphones,” or complained when black entertainers or athletes socialize with the First Family. The accusations of racism that follow merely confirm to conservatives that black-on-white racism is a canard, that the balance of oppression has turned against them.

– I’m not sure how assholes decided that happy holidays was the worst thing imaginable. It seems nice to me.

– White, wealthy people who are members of the dominant religion are not “the real victims” of anything. They’re actually not even in a position to know what experiencing structural oppression feels like. So why do they still have an audience every time they want to complain that, notwithstanding everything, they’re still not privileged enough?

– I never get invited on the panel of important seeming people

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