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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Seth Meyers: Joe and Jill Biden.

White House Watch: The sniff test.

Minute Physics: Where does complexity come from?

The GOP Sexual Predator Show:

Slate: FAUX News didn’t air Michelle Obama’s speech.

John Oliver on Guantánamo.

The Oval Office guide to sexual harassment.

Chris Hayes: Idiot Limbaugh thinks the “Left” is obsessed with consent.

Four Weeks To Go: Top Senate challengers and vulnerable House incumbents

Clinton versus The G(r)OP(er):

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Giuliani claims Clinton wasn’t there after 9/11, except there is a photo of them.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Mental Floss: 29 spin-offs that almost happened.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Debate Open Thread

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I am putting this up early tonight because I am in Redmond, heading to the Roanoke. The SR520 bridge is closed, which makes my commute a bit uncertain. So have at it in the comment threads, and I’ll join you as soon as possible.

6:04: We’ve started!

6:07: “We’re going to respect each other.” We’ll see!

6:08: Overheard at the Roanoke: “Oh my God…he’s medicated!”

6:09: Trump isn’t going to even try to answer the question.


…Certainly here at the Roanoke!

6:12: When asked about sexual assault, Trump talks ISIS. I’m sure he’s hit on her, too.

6:16: “For THE African Americans.” Hasn’t ANYONE talked to him about his awkward use of language?

6:23: Holy fuck…Trump is having a melt down!!!!

6:25: “You should be You’d be in jail.” Very presidential.

6:36: Donald Trump cannot give specifics. His health care plans are more aspirational than operational.

6:39: A lot of sniffing going on there, Donald.

6:46: Trump is very whiney this evening.

6:50: “She is blaming it on the late, great Abraham Lincoln”. Do we really say “late, great” for someone who has been dead for so long?

7:00: Okay…he’s unhinged again!

7:02: Clinton should have responded, “There you go whipping out that ’30 years of experience’ thing again.

7:09: Trump is now debating his running mate. This is precious!!!!

7:15: Dear Donald, Maybe they don’t interrupt Clinton because her answers are coherent, responsive. Quit your persistent whining!!!

7:22: Q about Trump’s “sextape” tweet. Trump: “Benghazi!!!!”

Conclusion: Trump was better medicated and didn’t do worse than last time. Clinton, as always was in control. Trump may GAIN from this debate…but probably not enough to offset the big losses from his “bus tape”.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Police accountability.

Stephen: Gary Johnson is running his campaign…into the ground.

Lewis Black: Getting out the millennial vote:

Bill Maher with Sen. Al Franken.

The 2016 Pussy-footing around the Alt-Right Clown:

Lewis Black Black to the Future – The Longest Election Cycle.

Kimmel : The week in unnecessary censorship.

SNL: 2016 Presidential Debate:

Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true.

Trevor: Congress overrides 9/11 veto.

Jimmy Dore: Even FAUX News see through Christie’s BS.

PsychoSuperMom: Dear Internet Trolls.

Daily Show: “The O’Reilly Factor” Gets Racist in Chinatown.

VP Wannabe:

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Chelsea Clinton on life-long family attacks and Bad ’90s fashion.

Mental Floss: 44 facts about birds.

Jimmy Dore: Ted Cruz humiliates himself in one embarrassing, slimy phone call.

Samantha Bee: Maine’s personal Drumpf.

Sam Seder: Cruz’s pathetic phone banking for Drumpf.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why your AirBnB may be illegal.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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A voter registration day message from the Late Show.

Jimmy Dore: War Criminal George W Bush is having a great time with paint.

Obama: Votes matter.

The 2016 G.O.P./Alt-Right Shit Show:

Jon Batiste: Hey, White people!

Adam Ruins Everything: Why a wall won’t work:

White House: West Wing Week.

Debate is What Catches De Fish:

Stephen: Elizabeth Warren rips Wells Fargo’s CEO a new one.

John Oliver: 2016 Scandals.

Olbermann: How to gauge Clinton’s lead over Drumpf.

Here is how they try to suppress your vote.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

oPEN THREAd

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I know the post-debate analysis has been done already. But I just want to highlight this that Trump said.

And when it comes to stop-and-frisk, you know, you’re talking about takes guns away. Well, I’m talking about taking guns away from gangs and people that use them. And I don’t think — I really don’t think you disagree with me on this, if you want to know the truth.

There were some people who called out in real time how shitty it was that he was telling a woman how she really feels. And yeah.

But the other part of the dynamic is white people talking to other white people. One says something racist and the other person rejects it. It can be a joke, or some “observation” or a policy proposal. And the other person doesn’t agree. But the first person insists that the other person approves of their joke or observation or policy proposal. No matter how much they say they don’t.

This is the same dynamic of people yelling about PC culture.

Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate

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Okay…the debate is about to begin. Have at it in the comment threads. I’ll post my nuggets of wisdom from the folks at Drinking Liberally and from Twitter.

[6:05] Opening topic: reducing income inequality in a period of low unemployment.
Clinton: Invest, invest, invest.
Drumpf: CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!

Trump claims that U.S. doesn’t have the largest, most sophisticated manufacturing facilities in the world. Ummm…Mr. Trump, ever hear of Boeing’s plant in Everett? Largest in the world.

[6:13] Drumpf, “The U.S. doesn’t know what it is doing” in manufacturing. Unbelievable!

[6:14] Drumpf is starting to fall apart already, with his little aside to Clinton.

[6:15] Drumpf’s import tax bring to mind Bill Murray’s famous SNL lounge skit: “Trade Wars / If they had made wars / Let there be trade wars / ooohhh oh yeah.

[6:19] Again and again, Drumpf tells us what we “have to do” without any concrete proposals.

[6:20] Clinton successfully holds off Drumpf’s attempt at disruption.

[6:21] Hello? Moderators?

[6:26]: Drumpf completely LOST IT! “No wonder you have been fighting ISIS your entire life.” ISIS didn’t even exist when she last held a government position.

[6:33]: Drumpf has an audit conspiracy.

[6:39]: “We spent 6 trillion dollars in the middle east” and we didn’t even take all of their oil….

[6:40]: Clinton may have used a private email server, but at least she paid her IT subcontractors.

[6:43]: Drumpf has calmed down, but is having trouble focusing.

[6:44]: Drumpf things Hillary is afraid to say “law and order”. WTF?!?

[6:48]: Drumpf is rattling off endorsements. What’s next, poll numbers?

[6:50]: Donald Trump wants to take guns away…from dark-skinned people.

[6:52]: Clinton makes a passionate argument for justice reform. Trump’s response, “she won’t law and order!” and “stop and frisk!”

[7:00]: Dear @realDonaldTrump Obama produced the standard Hawaii birth certificate in 2008.

[7:12]: DJT uses “Cyber” incorrectly. Clearly new to the word. Norbert Weiner spins in his grave.

[7:15]:Drumpf blames Obama/Clinton for leaving Iraq. You know…the withdrawal that was set up by Bush’s failure to come to an agreement with Iraq.

[7:22]: At the end of a crazy, defensive tyrade, “I have better judgement than her.”

[7:24]: Trump is sniffling a lot. Is he well enough to be President?????????

[7:26]: Clinton’s “caviler attitude about nuclear weapons” segment was potent.

[7:27]: Holy shit. @realDonaldTrump understanding of defending other countries amounts to gangster movies.

[7:33]: Clinton’s strategy: say something clear. Let Drumpf babble.

[7:35]: No shit on Clinton’s statement on stamina. Look at her freaking schedule while SOS! Brutal travel and meeting schedule.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.

Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.

Keith Olbermann interviews Press Sec. Josh Earnest on the debate and the stakes of the race: PART I and PART II.

Kimmel on presidential debate topics.

The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:

Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?

Samantha Bee: Chief Executive fear mongerer: PART I and PART II

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.

Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.

Hillary Makes History:

Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.

Thom: Open source voting explained.

Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.

Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.

Mel Brooks pranks Obama.

Thom: Here’s who’s being eliminated from the voter roles.

Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.

John Oliver: The refugee crisis.

Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.

This Week in Cops Killing Black People:

White House: West Wing Week.

Jimmy Dore: Reince Priebus worn out after months of turd-polishing:

Sam Seder: NC Rep. says Charlotte protesters “Hate White people because White people are successful & they’re not”.

Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.

Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

HA Bible Study: Exodus 32:27-29

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Exodus 32:27-29
Then he said to them, “This is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says: ‘Each man strap a sword to his side. Go back and forth through the camp from one end to the other, each killing his brother and friend and neighbor.’” The Levites did as Moses commanded, and that day about three thousand of the people died. Then Moses said, “You have been set apart to the LORD today, for you were against your own sons and brothers, and he has blessed you this day.”

Discuss.

HA Bible Study Double Feature: Luke 19:29-34 and Exodus 20:15

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Luke 19:29-34
As he approached Bethphage and Bethany at the hill called the Mount of Olives, he sent two of his disciples, saying to them, “Go to the village ahead of you, and as you enter it, you will find a colt tied there, which no one has ever ridden. Untie it and bring it here. If anyone asks you, ‘Why are you untying it?’ say, ‘The Lord needs it.’”

Those who were sent ahead went and found it just as he had told them. As they were untying the colt, its owners asked them, “Why are you untying the colt?”

They replied, “The Lord needs it.”

Exodus 20:15
Thou shalt not steal.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.

Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.

Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.

Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).

The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:

Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.

Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:

David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.

Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.

The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:

Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.

Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.

Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.

Weiner’s Wares:

Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.

Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.

Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.

Sports Patriots:

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Russ Feingold hits Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on student loans.

Conan and Sen. Franken: Humor in politics.

Obama to Congress: Louisiana may need more funding.

Thom: Tribal rights & the Dakota access pipeline.

What the polls do to us.

Clinton Makes History:

Farron Cousins: Alt Right—Just another name for mainstream Republican.

The Other Washington episode 6.5: Paid sick leave.

Thom: The secret list of those who have voted twice.

Colbert: Real Tim Kaine reacts to fake Tim Kaine.

Run The Jewels: “Nobody Speak”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The 2016 GOP- White Nationalist- Drumpf-Fest:

Bassem Youssef: The ISIS Hunter.

David Pakman: The FAUX sex scandal explodes.

Young Turks: Gov. Paul LePage leaves homophobic meltdown voicemail.

America’s worst idea.

Pres. Obama celebrates 100 years of National Parks.

Thom: Voter suppression and the mathematical proof.

Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros, “Faux News a sex-fueled, Playboy mansion-like cult

Tim Kaine jams with Jon Batiste and Stay Human.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Young Turks: Feds to phase out for-profit prisons.

Nightly Show: Super depressing deep dive into America’s opioid epidemic.

Jonathan Mann: Good use of polling, bad use of polling.

John Oliver: American Petroleum Institute.

July was the hottest month ever recorded.

Bassem Youssef: America First!

What is a digital passport?

The 2016 Breitbart-Brand White Nationalist Drumpf Show:

Mental Floss: 46 odd and surprising stats and figures.

Hillary ROAST!

Minute Physics: The Twins Paradox primer.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clueless-Clown suggests #BlackLivesMatter is like KKK.

Robots for President?

Bad Lip Reading The Democratic National Convention.

Eric Schwartz: Don’t Vote:

Liberal Viewer: Larry Wilmore suggests Drumpf & Hillary are different kinds of liars

Jon sends off Larry in style.

Susie Sampson gets Weiner-ed.

Bassem Youssef: How can Muslims act “normal”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Hillary hits 100%

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Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 337 electoral votes
Mean of 201 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls last week showed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in electoral votes by an average of 325 to 213, and with Clinton having a 99.7% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, 24 new polls have been released in 13 states. Some states have multiple polls, for example, Florida with five and New Hampshire with three.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,999 times and Trump wins the single Electoral College outcome that was a tie. Clinton received (on average) 337 to Trump’s 201 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a near 100.0% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has evolved in some key states.

Florida gains five new polls that solidly favor Clinton (+3%, +6%, +1%, +5%, and +9%). The new polls move Florida from a 67.1% probability of a Clinton victory last week to a 98.2% probability now.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Florida

Georgia flips from light blue to light red. Of the seven current polls, Clinton leads in only two of polls. Last week Clinton only had a 68.6% probability of taking the state. That has now shrunk to a 24.2% probability.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Georgia

Maine gets one new poll that shows Clinton up by +10% and with 100% probability of taking the state. Unfortunately, the new poll does not provide congressional district results. The last poll that did that was from June, and showed Trump with a slight lead in one district. It would be great to get some polling in ME CDs.

New Hampshire gets three new polls (and one aging out). The oldest poll shows Trump with a +9% margin, but Clinton has the lead in the last four polls by +15%, +13%, +10%, and +9%. Clinton goes from a 38% probability of taking the state last week to a 99.9% probability this week.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16New Hampshire

One new North Carolina poll pushes Clinton from a 50.1% probability of taking the state to a 90.8% probability. She leads in the most recent two of the three current polls.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16North Carolina

Ohio loses one poll that aged out, and has shrunk Clinton’s chances from 81% to 65%. Clinton leads in three polls (+4%, +4%, +2%) and Trump leads in one (+3%). The result is a near toss-up

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Ohio

South Carolina finally gets a current poll, but Trump is only up by +2% in the new poll. This small lead gives him a 72.6% probability of winning the state today.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16South Carolina

In Virginia, two new polls come in and one old one ages out. Clinton leads in the most recent three polls by double digits with Trump leading (+4%) in the oldest poll. Clinton would almost certainly win Virginia in an election now.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Virginia

Washington state gets a current poll that gives Clinton a +19% lead. Needless to say, she approaches a 100% probability of winning the state right now.

Last week, the most recent Wisconsin poll was from Marquette University taken in mid-July. Clinton was up +4.1%. Marquette just released their August poll and Clinton now has a +14% lead over Trump. The results suggest she would take Wisconsin with a 99.7% probability today.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Wisconsin

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] shows all possible Electoral College outcomes:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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No cure for lobbying addiction.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!

Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion

Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?

White House: West Wing Week.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?


Most hated candidates ever.

This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:

Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .

New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.

FAUX Fallout:

Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?

Did Clinton lie about her emails?

Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!

BrideGate Lies:

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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