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Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

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Obama Romney
100.0% probability 0.0% probability
345 electoral votes 193 electoral votes


Electoral College Map
Electoral College Map

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. The results were strong enough and certain enough that we would expect Obama to be the certain winner in an election held now.

Over the past two days, 14 new polls have been released, covering 12 states.

The net result is that, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 345 to Romney’s 193 electoral votes. That is a gain of +4 EVs based on the new polls and the “aging out” of some older polls. We’d have to say the the evidence is quite strong that Obama would achieve victory in a hypothetical election held today.

Here are the new polls, followed by a discussion of some of the changes over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 25-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.5 42 52 R+10
CO Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 765 3.4 50.2 45.5 O+4.7
CT PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 801 3.5 54 41 O+13
FL Insider Advantage 24-Sep 24-Sep 540 4.1 49 46 O+3
FL Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 44 O+9
IN Bellweather Research 19-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 52 R+12
IA PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 754 3.6 51 44 O+7
MD Gonzales Res 17-Sep 23-Sep 813 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA Rasmussen 24-Sep 24-Sep 500 4.5 55 40 O+15
MO Chilenski Strategies 20-Sep 20-Sep 817 3.4 44.3 50.2 R+5.9
OH Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 43 O+10
PA Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 54 42 O+12
PA Franklin & Marshall 18-Sep 23-Sep 392 4.9 52 43 O+9
WA Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 625 4.6 56.4 38.6 O+17.8

There are a couple of bright spots for Romney, including a poll from Arizona that has Romney up by a +10%. Romney’s lead in the previous AZ poll was only +3%. The three current polls, taken together bump Romney’s chances of taking the state from 97.5% to 99.3% in an election now.

In Colorado, Obama has a +4.7% lead in the latest poll. Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 96% probability of taking the state (for now) from the poll.

Two more Florida polls go to Obama. He gets a +3% in one and a +9% in the other. Taken together the 15 current polls suggest a 99% chance of Obama taking the state—up from a 93% probability without these two new polls.

Indiana has Romney up by a respectable +12% over Obama. Indiana barely went for Obama in 2008. It seems unlikely the state will repeat that in 2012.

Another Iowa poll goes Obama’s way, this time by +7%. Romney has only led in one of the four current polls taken over the past three weeks. Taken together, Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 98% of taking the state now.

The other bright spot for Romney is Missouri, where Romney leads in a new poll by +5.9%. Together, the two current polls bump Romney’s chances from 68% to 90% of taking the state now.

Another Ohio poll goes to Obama, this one by double digits. This gives us 12 polls in Ohio over the past three weeks and every one of them goes to Obama. As a result, Obama won all 100,000 simulated elections in that state.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both go to Obama. One by +12% and the other by +9%. The eight current polls all go to Obama. The give Obama, in aggregate, a +9% lead over Romney, and suggest Obama would take the state with certainty in an election right now.

A new poll for Washington state has Obama leading Romney by +17.8%. The five current polls all give Obama double digit leads in the state.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 350 electoral votes with a 10.82% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 10.73% probability
  • 346 electoral votes with a 7.16% probability
  • 347 electoral votes with a 7.01% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 5.23% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 4.71% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 3.38% probability
  • 331 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
  • 345 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
  • 349 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 344.6 (10.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 193.4 (10.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 347 (322, 362)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 191 (176, 216)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 217
Strong Obama 113 330
Leans Obama 20 20 350
Weak Obama 0 0 0 350
Weak Romney 1 1 1 188
Leans Romney 1 1 187
Strong Romney 144 186
Safe Romney 42

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.2 99.8
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 3 1991 46.1 53.9 0.7 99.3
AR 6 1 2006 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
CA 55 3 2219 60.6 39.4 100.0 0.0
CO 9 9 6613 51.6 48.4 96.2 3.8
CT 7 2 1193 58.8 41.2 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 94 88.3 11.7 100.0 0.0
FL 29 15 11756 51.4 48.6 98.5 1.5
GA 16 1 439 38.5 61.5 0.0 100.0
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1 1020 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 736 43.5 56.5 0.7 99.3
IA 6 4 2568 53.0 47.0 98.3 1.7
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1 557 42.4 57.6 0.6 99.4
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.3 99.7
ME 2 2 1533 58.7 41.3 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 1 412 63.3 36.7 99.9 0.1
ME2 1 1 364 53.8 46.2 84.3 15.7
MD 10 1 740 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
MA 11 6 3243 62.1 37.9 100.0 0.0
MI 16 6 3817 54.2 45.8 100.0 0.0
MN 10 3 1982 54.3 45.7 99.5 0.5
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 1237 47.5 52.5 9.5 90.5
MT 3 2 1204 46.3 53.7 3.4 96.6
NE 2 1 728 44.0 56.0 1.3 98.7
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.6 89.4
NE2 1 1 352 50.0 50.0 49.9 50.1
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 5 2670 52.2 47.8 94.8 5.2
NH 4 3 1408 50.6 49.4 63.5 36.5
NJ 14 3 1709 58.0 42.0 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1 1066 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NY 29 1 1426 64.6 35.4 100.0 0.0
NC 15 5 3075 50.6 49.4 68.2 31.8
ND 3 1 918 53.8 46.2 94.6 5.4
OH 18 12 9592 52.8 47.2 100.0 0.0
OK 7 1* 431 33.4 66.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1 499 54.9 45.1 93.7 6.3
PA 20 8 5346 54.6 45.4 100.0 0.0
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 5.4 94.6
SD 3 1* 474 41.8 58.2 0.8 99.2
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.7 92.3
TX 38 1 950 42.1 57.9 0.1 99.9
UT 6 1* 1149 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 9 9357 51.2 48.8 95.6 4.4
WA 12 5 2453 58.5 41.5 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.9 98.1
WI 10 6 5360 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  2. 2

    Now wait a few minutes for the regular complaints from the trolls, I’ll do them a favor and give their complaints in advance, so they don’t have to:

    ” The Democrats were oversampled!”

    ” Those are 1980 numbers”

    ” Polls don’t mean anything!”

  4. 4

    It’s nice to see North Carolina a shade of blue, but I didn’t see any new polling there. Did I miss something?

    And yet, still no new polling in S. Carolina.

  5. 5

    ” Those are 1980 numbers”

    Oops, I meant “2008″ numbers.

    I think you were right the first time, all they have anymore are foggy memories of Carter v. Reagan.

    Carter, of coure, was a far far better man, and continues to prove that daily.

  6. 6

    No Florida, no Mitt-Mitt

    BWAHAHAHAHAAA!!!!

    I’m sure the *guffaw*, the *snort*, the debates will *cough* change things….BWHAHAHAAAAA!

  7. 7

    The only downside I see is that Romney is so far down, the only direction he can go is up (a bit).

    If that happens, expect the trolls to proclaim it a trend towards a Romney landslide. But I don’t think it’s going to change the result.

  8. 8

    As an Obama supporter who pays a
    higher tax rate than Romney,
    I find Romney’s attitude offensive.

    It’s fun to watch him being
    publicly humiliated in this way.

    Have a nice day. :)

  9. 9

    I’m wondering if this might be the death knell of the Republican Party. Sure, they can still win Congressional seats in “Red” areas, and state and local races. But nationally, the party appears to be facing the fatal flaw which has been apparant for at least the last two years: the divisive nature of it’s Tea Party base cannot produce a national candidate through the primary process which has any hope of winning a national election.

    Sure, there could have been other candidates less flawed than Romney which might have had a chance in 2012. Huntsman comes to mind. But the only way to win a Republican primary is to prove that you are certifiably insane.

  11. 11

    As an Obama supporter who pays a
    higher tax rate than Romney,
    I find Romney’s attitude offensive.

    So you paid the first 35% federal tax on the original money earned so money left for investment income taxes is at 15% rael?

    Just checking since you made the claim!

  12. 12

    You see rael, when the debates happen Romney will explain to the masses how dumb you DUMMOCRAPT ASSes are. You can’t have a 15% investment income tax rate unless you paid the first 35% federal income tax rate on the original money. This kind of truth manipulation by DUMMOCRAPTS and the stupidity and incomprehension about the American tax system is hilarious. The attacks against Romney for political purposes is the main reason the debates will be interesting.

    In fact, the debates will be glorious! So when Romney paid 49% federal tax rate that’s not enough rael? You pay 49% federal tax rate rael?

  13. 13

    @11 & 12

    Puddy’s been boning up on the righty “double taxation” myth.

    Good luck with that. And any sentence that begins with “Romney will explain” and doesn’t end with “sounding like an entitled asshole” should probably be discounted.

  14. 14

    The Republican’s have run lousy candidates who in turn ran lousy campaigns for two presidential elections in a row. This isn’t good for our country. We need a two party system, not the .5 party system that we currently have.

    I really hope that after the election the political right in this country reforms its self into something viable.

  15. 15

    # 13: I don’t even bother to ready Puddy’s comments any more, so I didn’t see what he was talking about.

    I heard Romney claim the “double taxation” bit, too. It’s such a spurious argument – a quick look at most of these corporations will show that very few pay any taxes, much less the 35% maximum rate.

    Every transaction between people is a generally a “taxable event”. Romney insists that “corporations are people too, my friend”, so what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Can I claim that I don’t owe taxes on my groceries because the grocery store paid taxes too? Of course not.

  16. 16

    The fact that I paid income tax on some money which then went into a bank and earned some interest (which I also have to pay taxes on … ) or may have gone into an investment and made some money (which I then also have to pay taxes on) does not mean that the original income is “taxed twice”.

    Only the additional money (interest or return on investment) is taxed, not the original amount which I made as income then invested.

    I don’t know why I bother … this is too complicated for a troll incapable of using the first person to understand. I doubt it even understands what it’s writing … it’s more like an online parrot that spends 12 hours a day watching Fox News & the rest of its time spewing that trash here.

  17. 17

    Have you noticed that the only really red states pictured on the map are mostly smack dab in the middle of America — from North Kakilakkee, Idaho to coastal Bumf#$k, Mississippi?

  18. 18

    rhp6033,

    “It’s nice to see North Carolina a shade of blue, but I didn’t see any new polling there. Did I miss something?”

    There are two major ways a state can change like that. (1) A new poll, or (2) an older poll “aging out” of the collection of current polls.

    NC changed to blue because a SurveyUSA poll that was R+10% aged out of the current polls for the state.

    It was at the bottom of the list two days ago and is now gone.

  19. 19

    rhp6033,

    “The only downside I see is that Romney is so far down, the only direction he can go is up (a bit).”

    Now that you mention it, when I first ran this analysis today, I accidentally specified a 3 DAY window instead of a 3 WEEK window. Romney ended up with 203 electoral votes on average.

    The effect of the much smaller window is to put more weight on the most recent polls.

    So, it is true that Romney has probably experienced a very small “recovery” in the more recent polls. So if the polling stays right where it is now, we can expect Romney to crawl his way back up to 200 or so.

    He needs MUCH more to win, obviously.

  20. 20

    Have you noticed that the only really red states pictured on the map are mostly smack dab in the middle of America — from North Kakilakkee, Idaho to coastal Bumf#$k, Mississippi?

    Seems like the deep red states are accounted for by Mormons (Utah, Idaho, Wyoming) and places that remind one of Deliverance (Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas).

    Bigger picture, the Republicans can count on only the Confederacy, farmers and Mormons. Not a winning coalition.

    A question arises…given the liberal hellhole that Seattle is, why don’t our trolls move to one of there libertarian/Galtian paradises like Oklahoma or Arkansas?

  21. 21

    Puddy’s been boning up on the righty “double taxation” myth.

    Well checksez, it’s not a myth… how can you have investment income unless you first get taxed on the original income. The Puddy investments are after Puddy pays his original federal tax. Soooooooooo, explain it differently… I DARE YA!

    Still waiting…

  23. 23

    Only the additional money (interest or return on investment) is taxed, not the original amount which I made as income then invested.

    Yeah sure… You take that money and invest it and you make more. You get taxed on the investment gain. But you were first taxed on the original basis used for the investment to allow yourself to see an investment gain. That’s the reason you can deduct investment losses twice every five years!

    Since Puddy has to pay these investment taxes each year. Puddy understands the game.

    It’s a shame these libtards are so into the class warfare game they can’t figger out anything.

  24. 24

    @20 – Bigger picture, the Republicans can count on only the Confederacy, farmers and Mormons. Not a winning coalition.

    … and they can only count on the Mormons if they’re running one.

  25. 25

    Fox and Friends morans jump into the fray full poll-truther, despite their won poll showing what their frothing about…

    “Well, two reasons,” he ([Ed: Doocey] said. “One, perhaps, to keep Mitt Romney’s donors from coughing up more cash. And two, to keep people from doing early voting.”

    Co-host Gretchen Carlson had another theory: “I do think there’s a subliminal message in these daily polling things, which isn’t always great for the voter.”

    One problem with the theories: FOX’s own polling also shows Obama surging in swing states. A survey released by the network just last week showed the president leading Romney by no fewer than five points in Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

    What blathering idiots. And to think this is where puddl and Cap’n go to get their ‘thoughts’ – pathetic.

  26. 26

    Deep Thought:
    Did Republicans misunderstand “The polls are skewed” from “Republicans are screwed?”

  30. 30

    @21

    In Willard’s case Papa handed him a check.

    And you’re confused about how capital gains works. You principal isn’t taxed, but your realized gain is. Lets say I invest 100k. It was taxed at about 27% as income. When I sell the investment for 175k I will be charged 15% on 75k. You’re also aware, oh wait you’re an ignoramus so you’re not aware, that if a corporation pays a dividend, that amount paid is a write off. So it wasn’t taxed.at.the corporate level AND its taxed.at a lower rate than ordinary income when it gets to the shareholder.

    Really Piddles, you should take an econ course at some point.

    You’ll believe any old thing your corporatist masters say.

  32. 32

    22. Puddybud spews:

    …given the liberal hellhole that Seattle is…

    Wow even Lib da dunce is right once a day!

    09/27/2012 at 3:44 pm

    You make my point for me. If you think this, why stay? Wouldn’t you be more comfortable with like-minded Teahaddists in Arkansas? In the anti-union, no-minimum wage job creator paradise of Alabama? Mississippi? The teen pregnancy and illiteracy capital, Oklahoma?

    Why stick around here with a bunch of godless liberals who love books and reading and social justice and stuff?

  33. 33

    In the anti-union, no-minimum wage job creator paradise of Alabama?

    you mean the same Alabama where I can get 10 acres and a 3500 sf brand new house for less than it costs to buy some 1100 sf pile of shit house in a crappy neighborhood in seattle, the capital of douchebaggery and passive-aggressive assholes??

    pluses and minuses in each place.

  34. 34

    the best thing about seattle is that its close to bellevue, redmond, and some(not all) decent ‘burbs.

    whats the definition of child abuse? answer: raising kids in seattle.

  35. 35

    34
    We may need to award another Golden Goat here pretty soon. You’re too dumb to be Maxie.

  36. 36

    @23

    That’s the reason you can deduct investment losses twice every five years!

    Since Puddy has to pay these investment taxes each year. Puddy understands the game.

    Wait, you write off a loss on investments every two years? You suck at investing. Or do you mean that you understand that your principal is never re-taxed but your yearly actualized gains are and you still don’t understand that double taxation is a myth? You’re paying yearly? So you don’t hold any investments for more than a year? I go back to you suck at investing.

  37. 37

    @ 33

    you mean the same Alabama where I can get 10 acres and a 3500 sf brand new house for less than it costs to buy some 1100 sf pile of shit house in a crappy neighborhood in seattle

    Yeah, but good luck finding a job that pays more than $12.00 an hour anywhere in the State, and consider health insurance a non-issue. Meaning, they don’t issue it.

  38. 38

    You’re too dumb to be Maxie.

    Asshat “little maxee” reaches new levels of stupid each day..

    PL – it’s definitely “little maxee” – little as in pea brained..

    See here, here, here.

    Funny how the size of the lot and the shop changes.. Musta had to sub-divide to continue to live high on the hog – or is just making shit up. Most likely that.

  39. 39

    Slick Willard roughing it in 1968 to make the world safe for democracy his oyster on the beaches of France.

    I love Ann

    In related news, Sen Jim Webb, Vietnam Marine veteran and not on French beaches sending love notes in the 60’s had something to say yesterday:

    Governor Romney and I are about the same age. Like millions of others in our generation, we came to adulthood facing the harsh realities of the Vietnam War. 2.7 million in our age group went to Vietnam, a war which eventually took the lives of 58,000 young Americans and cost another 300,000 wounded. The Marine Corps lost 100,000 killed or wounded in that war. During the year I was in Vietnam, 1969, our country lost twice as many dead as we have lost in Iraq and Afghanistan combined over the past 10 years of war. 1968 was worse. 1967 was about the same. Not a day goes by when I do not think about the young Marines I was privileged to lead.

    Go read the whole thing. You’ll get a sense what leadership really looks like, unlike Romney/Ryan who play leaders on TV.

  40. 40

    So much for ideology. Republicans are giving Romney a green light to tout RomneyCare since he’s losing so bad. Suddenly, Romney cares about the 47%.

    “A sizable portion of the voters that Romney needs to win over in the swing states are okay with ObamaCare,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP consultant and Fox News contributor. “And the right recognizes that Romney is running behind in the polls, and will permit him — within reason — to use any tool necessary to salvage this election.”

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo......e-base.php

  41. 41

    @ 40

    In other words, in order to salvage this campaign, Romney has to ditch Republican ideology.

    It ain’t the campaign, and it ain’t the candidate. It’s the policy ideas, stupid.

  42. 42

    Gee, Todd Aiken was still holding out fairly well (all things considered) in his Missouri Senate bid. Then yesterday he was whining in an interview that his Democratic opponant, incumbent Clair McCaskill, was “unladylike” when she “came out swinging” in their more recent debates.

    Yep, keep ’em “barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen”, that’s Todd Aiken’s philosophy on women in a nutshell. And if your wife gets raped, she better not get pregnant, ’cause everyone knows that if it’s “real rape”, a woman can’t get pregnant!

    How many Missouri women will say they support Todd Aiken when their husband is listening to their responses to a phone survey, but will vote for McCaskill in the privacy of an election booth?

  44. 44

    @39
    That photo of Willard…1968…that wasn’t the beach near Da Nang, was it? Hue?

    Paraphrasing Lt. Col. Bill Kilgore:

    Willard Romney: You smell that? That fresh fish and shellfish and herb aroma? I LOVE that smell…only in France can you smell that…the smell of bouillabaisse in the morning….smells like….victory!!

  46. 46

    @42 rhp6033,

    Coincidences are funny things.
    Aikin speaks and only makes matters worse for himself.
    Slick Willard speaks and only makes matters worse for himself.

    Gekko/Galt is the anvil
    We are the HAMMER!

    Hammer it home

  47. 47

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....ction.html

    Pictured: ‘Beautiful’ family slain hours after church by ‘mentally ill father who was tormented by the prospect of Obama winning the election’

    Albert, Kathleen, Mathew and Christopher Peterson were found dead Tuesday in their Herndon, Virginia home

    Police say Albert shot dead his family before turning the weapon on himself

    A friend of the family says that Albert suffered from debilitating paranoia, exacerbated by the upcoming election

    ‘He just did not want his kids inheriting this mess,’ the friend said

    By Emily Anne Epstein

    PUBLISHED: 01:51 GMT, 28 September 2012 | UPDATED: 14:49 GMT, 28 September 2012

    Albert Peterson shot dead his wife and two sons hours after going to church because he dreaded the thought of Obama winning the election, a family friend has revealed.

    A confidante of the family for the past 25 years has spoken to MailOnline about the strength and grace of the Peterson family, as well as the torment that plagued Albert which drove him to shoot dead his wife Kathleen and his two sons Christopher and Mathew at their suburban home in DC on Sunday.

    A history of mental illness, the loss of a dear uncle, and a growing fear of Obama winning a second term in the White House took its toll on the mind of Mr Peterson, a wealthy defense contractor, the friend said.

    What the fuck is wrong with these people?

    None of the suffers of “Obama Derangement Syndrome” here do anything like that.

  48. 48

    # 47:

    “… a wealthy defense contractor…”??????

    Hmmm. I’ve got to process that one a bit.

  50. 50

    re 33: “Cheap things are rarely good and good things are never cheap.” Zig Ziglar

    You have the WalMart Shopper mentality that equates cheapness with quality of life.

  51. 51

    Great analysis. One mistake though. The North Dakota should be red. The last poll was in July and it gave Romney comfortable lead of 15% (51-36). You are using Fox News poll for Ohio from Sep 19 where Obama was leading by 7 points (look at the link). Of course, it does not change much the overall prediction of the chances in the race.

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