Poll Analysis: Obama moves into a “significant” lead over Romney

[Update: An analysis using some newer polls can be found here.]

Since the previous analysis in this race, five new state head-to-head polls representing four states have been released.

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
FLMason-Dixon24-Jan26-Jan8003.54448R+4
FLQuinnipiac19-Jan23-Jan15182.54545tie
MIEPIC/MRA21-Jan25-Jan6004.04840O+8
MNPPP21-Jan22-Jan12362.85141O+10
PAKeystone Poll17-Jan22-Jan6144.04130O+11

Two new polls come from Florida, where the media markets are currently flooded with Republican primary ads. The newest poll from Mason-Dixon gives Romney a small +4% lead over Obama. The slightly older Quinnipiac poll has the race all tied up at 45% a piece.

In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by an impressive +11%. That’s even better than Michigan, where Obama leads Romney by +8% in the new poll. The Pennsylvania poll is more favorable to Obama than the newest Minnesota poll that has Obama up by +10%

In the previous analysis, Obama would have won with a 71.9% probability, and his average electoral vote total was 284 to Romney’s 254.

Now, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama an expected electoral vote total of 306 to Romney’s 232 for an election held now. Obama is at a 95.1% probability of winning that hypothetical election to Romney’s 4.9%. By traditional statistical inference, we would say Obama’s lead is “significant”—that is, it’s unlikely to be due to sampling error.

ObamaRomney
95.1% probability of winning 4.9% probability of winning
Mean of 306 electoral votesMean of 232 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 300 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
  • 308 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
  • 296 electoral votes with a 2.08% probability
  • 309 electoral votes with a 2.01% probability
  • 302 electoral votes with a 2.01% probability
  • 293 electoral votes with a 1.96% probability
  • 303 electoral votes with a 1.96% probability
  • 301 electoral votes with a 1.95% probability
  • 306 electoral votes with a 1.90% probability
  • 299 electoral votes with a 1.87% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 95.1%, Romney wins 4.9%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 305.9 (23.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 232.1 (23.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 304 (262, 357)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 234 (181, 276)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama63
Strong Obama183246
Leans Obama4949295
Weak Obama141414309
Weak Romney000229
Leans Romney8181229
Strong Romney90148
Safe Romney58

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
48VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111443 46.3 53.7 13.6 86.4
AR61*1744 40.4 59.6 0.0100.0
CA551*900 55.6 44.4 99.0 1.0
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 66.4 33.6
CT71*544 51.1 48.9 63.9 36.1
DE30*(100)(0)
DC30*(100)(0)
FL2954445 48.9 51.1 14.9 85.1
GA161*582 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*846 54.5 45.5 96.5 3.5
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*1277 54.1 45.9 98.0 2.0
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 6.9 93.1
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.9 93.1
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME41*586 56.3 43.7 98.5 1.5
MD100*(100)(0)
MA111*905 63.3 36.7100.0 0.0
MI161528 54.5 45.5 93.3 6.7
MN1011137 55.4 44.6 99.5 0.5
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101*435 48.3 51.7 30.5 69.5
MT31*1462 44.5 55.5 0.2 99.8
NE21*658 42.7 57.3 0.4 99.6
NE111*269 50.6 49.4 54.9 45.1
NE211*204 45.6 54.4 18.6 81.4
NE311*185 29.2 70.8 0.0100.0
NV61*513 53.4 46.6 86.7 13.3
NH41*993 48.3 51.7 23.5 76.5
NJ1411256 55.8 44.2 99.9 0.1
NM51*455 58.2 41.8 99.3 0.7
NY291515 62.3 37.7100.0 0.0
NC152971 49.0 51.0 32.7 67.3
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.3 99.7
OH1811384 51.2 48.8 73.0 27.0
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*464 54.7 45.3 92.6 7.4
PA201436 57.8 42.2 98.8 1.2
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.5 14.5
SD31*454 37.7 62.3 0.0100.0
TN111*1139 47.5 52.5 11.2 88.8
TX381637 46.2 53.8 8.6 91.4
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*1085 61.4 38.6100.0 0.0
VA131557 50.6 49.4 57.8 42.2
WA121*496 54.2 45.8 90.4 9.6
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI101616 54.5 45.5 94.2 5.8
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    As a rule of thumb, Republican voter suppression and electronic vote augmentation operations give them about a 4% advantage. So, Obama needs at least +5% to win. GOP election fraud will make the outcome closer than the polling indicates. Remember, blacks still aren’t allowed to vote in Florida.

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Polling data released this morning shows Romney getting a blowout win in Florida on Tuesday. South Carolina may yet prove to have been an outlier. It doesn’t matter. Obama will be re-elected no matter who the GOPers nominate. Americans don’t want the economic policies of 1890. It’s that simple.

  3. 3

    manoftruth spews:

    @1
    Remember, blacks still aren’t allowed to vote in Florida.

    roger, why even write that so that normal people wont even take what you say seriously

  4. 4

    rhp6033 spews:

    # 3: Obviously, MOT hasn’t tried to vote as a black man in Florida. Depending upon the location within Florida, quite a number of obsticles thrown up in your path.

    One of the things that got by-passed in the controversey over “hanging chads”, etc. in the 2000 general election was the voter suppression effort which was going on at the same time. Without this, Bush’s 500 or so vote “victory”, gets buried in thousands of black votes.

  5. 5

    rhp6033 spews:

    What’s really amazing is that there can be a 20+ vote swing in the primary votes over the course of some 72 hours. Tea Party folks in Florida seem to be very schizophrenic(sp?). Must be all the meds they are taking.

  6. 6

    Isambard Kingdom Brunel spews:

    too funny..all this bawk bawk! about voter suppression in florida, yet they turn a blind eye to the voting shenanigans in King County,.

    LOL…

  7. 7

    Rujax! spews:

    6. Isambard Kingdom Brunel spews:

    too funny..all this bawk bawk! about voter suppression in florida, yet they turn a blind eye to the voting shenanigans in King County,.

    LOL…
    01/30/2012 at 5:44 pm

    …only in your wet dreams, dipshit.

  8. 8

    Isambard Kingdom Brunel spews:

    @8

    hey look, it rujaxoff the OWSer!

    I saw you on TV today playing the banjo for that dipshit broad who married the building…

    check out the motley crew of progressive losers who attended!

    YEP! thats rujaxoff strumming his instrument at 1:00 into the video.

    HAHAHHAHAAHHAHAHHHAHAHHA..what a bunch of nutjobs….

    http://www.woodtv.com/dpps/new.....pe_4058406

  9. 9

    rujaxoffisright spews:

    #8 (and #6)–and you are wrong. Your irrelevent, stupid and factually ignorant statements only play well in Shark’s pool (SP).

  10. 10

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @6 “the voting shenanigans in King County”

    Still spewing that comic-book fantasy, eh? Everyone in the world except you now knows that whole GOP meme was scripted. There isn’t a scrap of truth to it.

  11. 12

    spews:

    These stats mean nothing because this year will be a four man race. Gary Johnson in the Libertarian party will get a lot of votes and the candidate Americas Elecet puts up will get a lot of votes. No need to vote for the lesser of two evils this time we can vote for the best man running.

  12. 15

    Isambard Kingdom Brunel spews:

    @13

    the most popular man-cave in the rainier valley is the one between your wife’s legs.

  13. 16

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 AmericaElects is a fraud. They’re going to run their pre-selected candidate no matter who the online voters choose. Their organization is set up so the five guys who run it can overrule the voters. And you don’t really think the handful of hedge fund managers who gave AE $20 million did so without knowing, or having any say in, who AE’s candidate will be, do you? Of course they didn’t.

  14. 17

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @15 At least he has a wife. You stick your dick in your own asshole because no woman will have you.

  15. 18

    spews:

    John Ruskin @ 14,

    “Gallup has a State-by-State poll count…and Obama loses in a landslide.”

    No they don’t. You misunderstand what they did.

  16. 19

    spews:

    mootsagootsa @ 12,

    “These stats mean nothing because this year will be a four man race. Gary Johnson in the Libertarian party will get a lot of votes and the candidate Americas Elecet puts up will get a lot of votes.”

    Quite unlikely they will get ANY votes that count. That is, they will almost certainly receive zero votes in the electoral college.

    The statewide votes will be used to select electors in the electoral college, and that means only individual votes for Obama or his Republican opponent will have any influence on who will be the President in 2013.

    I’m not saying it is right…but it IS reality.