Another poll in Washington state gives us another sign that Washington state will have a Republican Governor come 2013.
Today SurveyUSA released a new poll that covers the gubernatorial race and some presidential match-ups in the state. The poll surveyed 572 registered Washington voters (MOE 4.2%) from 13 Feb. to 16 Feb. The survey used a mix of home phone and cell phone respondents.
First the presidential match-ups:
- Obama v. Romney: 50% to 39% (+11%)
- Obama v. Paul: 50% to 37% (+13%)
- Obama v. Santorum: 51% to 38% (+13%)
- Obama v. Gingrich: 56% to 34% (+22%)
Man, 22%! Gingrich sure has has some debilitating negatives!
In the gubernatorial race, A.G. Rob McKenna (R) leads Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) by 49% to 39% (+10).
A Monte Carlo analysis [FAQ] using a million simulated elections finds Inslee winning 34,472 times to McKenna’s 962,998 wins. This suggests that, in an election held now, McKenna would have a 96.5% probability of winning; Inslee, a 3.5% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulated elections:
The poll result is very similar to an Elway poll taken from 7 Feb. to 9 Feb. If we pool the samples from both of these polls and do the Monte Carlo analysis we find Inslee winning only 10,720 times to McKenna’s 988,657 wins. The evidence suggests that, at this point, McKenna would win with a 98.9% probability:
Denial is not an option for Inslee supporters. While there is plenty of time to turn it around, Inslee is definitely the underdog at this point in the race.
The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.
I-502 is doing better than Inslee. Why doesn’t he stop pussy footing around and come out in full support of the initiative? At least that way he’ll have a chance of riding it’s coattails should it pass….if Inslee continues to play the Gregoire clone, he’s going down..
is Inslee running?
Inslee’s being awfully slow getting out of the starting gate on this one. He needs to be out speaking to groups every day, making the news. He needs to cajole McKenna into a name-calling war. If he allows McKenna to stay in his ivory castle, playing at being A.G. and making headlines whenever he wants to announce some new initiative or something or other, Inslee will lose. He’s got to draw a distinction between the two of them.
@1
That’s absolutely true. I obviously don’t think ending prohibition is the most important issue to most voters, but if the goal is to find ways to make yourself look very different than the unpopular sitting Democratic governor, there’s no better issue to accomplish that with.
If Inslee continues to run as a stock footage Democrat, he’ll almost certainly lose. Gregoire almost lost in 2004 doing that (in a year when John Kerry won the state easily) and was very lucky to run against a lazy, disinterested Rossi again in 2008. With McKenna running, Inslee really has his work cut out for him.
The percentages may change when Inslee begins to campaign in earnest. Plus, there will be a lot more footage of McKenna putting his foot in his mouth.
# 5: Yes, but when is Inslee going to begin to campaign in ernest? Unless he’s forced to do so, McKenna can avoid putting his foot in his mouth by keeping his mouth shut. Inslee needs to force him to speak up to defend himself.
Of course, the big issue – which really has nothing to do with Washington state politics – involves several federal Ct. of Appeal cases involving the health care reform act hitting the U.S. Supreme Court this term. McKenna joined the lawsuit despite the opposition of both the governor and most of the state’s population. The Supreme Court will rule on them sometime this spring – I’m guessing in June, right before the court recesses for the summer. If McKenna loses, then it will provide plenty of ammo to Inslee. If McKenna wins even a portion of the lawsuit, he can claim victory generally and argue that the time and effort he spent on the case was well spent.
I guess it’s a lot to ask, but it sure would be nice to get a breakdown of survey results on a county-by-county basis, if not precinct-by-precinct. That size of a lead by McKenna must mean he’s still getting support from the Puget Sound area.
@2 More like shuffling, from the look of it so far.
I like Jay personally, and I’d certainly prefer to see him than Rob McKenna as our next Governor–hell, I’d rather see almost anyone other than McKenna as our next Governor. At best, he’s a skinny Chris Christie or a Dino minus the smarm. At worst, another Scott Walker.
But Inslee has to make up his mind whether to stay in Foggy Bottom getting kicked around by the Republican gangsters running the House, or get his butt back here and do some serious campaigning–and for that matter, give the green light for another Democrat to mount a credible run for his seat.
@7 The big issue is money. People don’t have any. That’s what’s on their minds. McKenna will campaign on the GOP memes of attracting jobs to the state by getting rid of unions, and cutting taxes by getting rid of state government. More jobs and less taxes is the only thing voters want to hear about and McKenna will play that like a fiddle.
As for Inslee, since he’s acting like he doesn’t want the job, maybe it’s time Washington Democrats started shopping for another candidate.
I’d be surpised if McKenna wins. The state’s just so overwhelmingly Democrat that it’s hard to envision a Democrat loosing to a Republican in an election for governor. I’ll bet on Inslee for 2012.
If McKenna wins, it surely won’t be good for the movement to bring sanity back into the drug laws. He’s too old school on legalization of cannabis.
11, Rossi very nearly beat Gregoire in the first go around. And many democrats have voted for McKenna in the past. And from these polls, it is clear that there are Democrats who don’t think he’s so bad. So, Inslee does very much need to do some campaigning. That is assuming he has something good to say that will inspire Democrats to vote for him and to endorse him.
Right now it’s looking like he has a reason to keep mum. At least that is the way people are going to interpret his silence.
Who ever is advising him for his campaign needs to be replaced because he does need to force McKenna to take public positions that will reveal what a bad deal he would be for WA.