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Poll Analysis: Control of the Senate shifts to the GOP

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/5/16, 6:54 pm


Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
12.1% probability
87.9% probability
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis last Sunday showed control of the Senate to be a toss up at 48% probability for Democrats and 52% for Republicans. The expected outcome was a 49 to 51 split in favor of the Republicans.

Since then, I’ve added something exceeding 50 polls to the mix. As we saw in the Presidential race, the polls since last Sunday have tended to be more favoriable to Republicans.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1,762 times, and I’ll assume they control the Senate with the 10,293 ties. The Republicans control the Senate 87,945 times. This suggests Democrats have a 12.1% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 87.9% probability of controlling the Senate. So, indeed, the Democrat’s chances have fallen.

The Republican candidate has primarily gained in five states.

In Indiana, Democrat Evan Bayh’s once solid lead has vanished. Last Sunday, he had an 88.5% probability of defeating Todd Young (R). Today he would win with a 24.1% probability. The polling picture pretty much tells the story.

senate05oct16-05nov16indiana1

Sen. Roy Blunt (R) has strengthened his lead over Jason Kander (D) in Missouri. Last analysis Blunt was at a 77.8% probability of winning, but five new polls, including two ties and three with Blunt up, puts the probability at 92.8% today. On the other hand, two months ago, there was little evidence that Blunt would lose.

senate05oct16-05nov16missouri2

In Nevada, five polls aged out, and these mostly favored Catherine Cortez Mastro (D) over Joe Heck (R). Heck leads in four of the five current polls. Consequently, the Republican has gone from a 54% to a 93% probability of winning today.

senate05oct16-05nov16nevada1

The story is somewhat similar in New Hampshire. Four polls aged out, including one that had Maggie Hassan (D) up by +9 over Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). The new polling has mostly been more favorable to Ayotte. We now have ten current polls, six that favor Ayotte, two that favor Hassan, and two ties. The net result is that Ayotte has gone from a 67% chance to an 86% chance of winning an election today.

senate05oct16-05nov16new_hampshire2

In Wisconsin, four polls aged out, including one with Russ Feingold leading Sen. Ron Johnson by +12%. The four current polls have Feingold up by +8%, +5%, +1%, and +2%. As a result, Feingold’s chances have dropped from 99.8% to 85.9%.

senate05oct16-05nov16wisconsin1

Democrats have made a couple of notable gains.

The North Carolina senate race largely favors Sen. Richard Burr (R) over challenger Deborah Ross (D). But the last couple of days have seen one tie and two polls that favor the Democrat. The result is that Burr has fallen from a 90% probability of winning last Sunday to an 86% chance today.

senate05oct16-05nov16north_carolina1

The biggest news for Democrats happens in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is being challenged by Democrat Katie McGinty. Seven polls aged-out, and these polls were pretty much a toss-up between the two candidates. Eight new polls have been added that largely favor McGinty. With the four carry-over polls, we now have two current polls that favor Toomey, eight that favor McGinty, and two ties. As a result, Pennsylvania has flipped from red to blue. McGinty was at a 45.8% probability of winning last Sunday, and she would win a race today with a 99.7% probability.

senate05oct16-05nov16pennsylvania2

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 12.1%, Republicans control the Senate 87.9%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 0.8)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 0.8)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 45
Strong Democrat 2 47
Leans Democrat 1 1 48
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
Weak Republican 0 0 0 52
Leans Republican 3 3 52
Strong Republican 4 49
Safe Republican 45

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 1& 320 23.4 76.6 0.0 100.0
AZ 6 3957 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
AR 2 1006 38.7 61.3 0.0 100.0
CA 3 2372 62.0 38.0 100.0 0.0
CO 3 1681 54.3 45.7 99.2 0.8
CT 1& 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 13 9570 47.4 52.6 0.0 100.0
GA 6 3788 43.4 56.6 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 1 823 29.5 70.5 0.0 100.0
IL 3 1973 56.8 43.2 100.0 0.0
IN 2 884 48.3 51.7 24.1 75.9
IA 4 2548 38.1 61.9 0.0 100.0
KS 1 535 36.4 63.6 0.0 100.0
KY 2 1323 43.4 56.6 0.1 99.9
LA 1& 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 1& 614 66.6 33.4 100.0 0.0
MO 7 5594 48.6 51.4 7.2 92.8
NV 5 3356 48.2 51.8 6.6 93.4
NH 10 6238 49.1 50.9 14.4 85.6
NY 1 568 71.0 29.0 100.0 0.0
NC 11 7216 49.1 50.9 15.3 84.7
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 3 1609 40.9 59.1 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1& 558 62.7 37.3 100.0 0.0
PA 12 9083 51.9 48.1 99.7 0.3
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 3 2031 36.7 63.3 0.0 100.0
UT 3 1394 29.5 70.5 0.0 100.0
VT 1 559 69.1 30.9 100.0 0.0
WA 2 1103 59.4 40.6 100.0 0.0
WI 4 2465 51.6 48.4 85.9 14.1

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Follow me (@hominidviews) on Twitter for Senate and Presidential polling and analysis updates.

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Related

Comments

  1. 1

    Bernie Sanders spews:

    Saturday, 11/5/16 at 6:59 pm

    There’s still time to write me in on your ballot.

  2. 2

    Crackbaby spews:

    Saturday, 11/5/16 at 7:06 pm

    This is what happens when the corrupt moderate Republican candidate that the equally corrupt Democratic establishment forced down everybody’s throats tells the Democratic voter base to go fuck themselves every chance she gets.

  3. 3

    Daveon spews:

    Saturday, 11/5/16 at 8:21 pm

    I’m hoping that the data Ralston has been posting about in Nevada suggests all the NV polls are wrong and we have a 50/50 senate with Tim Kaine as the vote.

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