Poll Analysis: Clinton versus Rubio

Clinton	Rubio
92.4% probability of winning	7.6% probability of winning
Mean of 304 electoral votes	Mean of 234 electoral votes

My previous analysis in this race showed Secretary Clinton just barely leading Sen. Rubio 65% to 35%. Rubio was second to Jeb Bush in performance against Clinton. In the intervening weeks, Rubio has started to crawl out of the mid-tier rankings in the G.O.P. primary. A week ago he placed third in SC, and today we see he is second in NH

Rubio’s primary “surge” hasn’t translated into general election gains. He seems to be losing ground to Clinton. Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,430 times and Rubio wins 7,570 times (including the 404 ties). Clinton received (on average) 304 to Rubio’s 234 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.4% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 7.6% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):

• 299 electoral votes with a 2.52% probability
• 286 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
• 315 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
• 312 electoral votes with a 2.31% probability
• 307 electoral votes with a 2.28% probability
• 296 electoral votes with a 2.25% probability
• 302 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
• 283 electoral votes with a 2.20% probability
• 294 electoral votes with a 1.91% probability
• 297 electoral votes with a 1.76% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

• Clinton wins 92.4%, Rubio wins 7.6%.
• Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 303.5 (24.6)
• Average (SE) EC votes for Rubio: 234.5 (24.6)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 303 (257, 352)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Rubio: 235 (186, 281)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 19 Oct 2014 to 19 Oct 2015, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Clinton	159
Strong Clinton	84	243
Leans Clinton	40	40	283
Weak Clinton	0	0	0	283
Weak Rubio	16	16	16	255
Leans Rubio	108	108	239
Strong Rubio	52	131
Safe Rubio	79

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

	1	0	EC	#	Total	%	%	Clinton	Rubio
	2	8	Votes	polls	Votes	Clinton	Rubio	% wins	% wins
AL			9	0				(0)	(100)
AK			3	2*	1756	49.6	50.4	41.4	58.6
AZ			11	1*	504	48.8	51.2	34.8	65.2
AR			6	0*				(0)	(100)
CA			55	1*	681	62.4	37.6	100.0	0.0
CO			9	1*	1034	45.3	54.7	1.6	98.4
CT			7	1*	1075	60.9	39.1	100.0	0.0
DE			3	0*				(100)	(0)
DC			3	0*				(100)	(0)
FL			29	1	1044	49.4	50.6	39.6	60.4
GA			16	1*	572	51.6	48.4	70.1	29.9
HI			4	0*				(100)	(0)
ID			4	0*				(0)	(100)
IL			20	1*	800	57.0	43.0	99.8	0.2
IN			11	0*				(0)	(100)
IA			6	1	1181	47.7	52.3	12.8	87.2
KS			6	1*	1094	47.2	52.8	8.8	91.2
KY			8	1*	964	47.1	52.9	10.2	89.8
LA			8	1*	536	51.7	48.3	70.6	29.4
ME			2	0*				(100)	(0)
ME1			1	0*				(100)	(0)
ME2			1	0*				(100)	(0)
MD			10	0*				(100)	(0)
MA			11	0*				(100)	(0)
MI			16	1*	1231	48.2	51.8	17.9	82.1
MN			10	1*	832	51.2	48.8	68.5	31.5
MS			6	0*				(0)	(100)
MO			10	1*	747	41.4	58.6	0.0	100.0
MT			3	1*	931	45.6	54.4	3.2	96.8
NE			2	0*				(0)	(100)
NE1			1	0*				(0)	(100)
NE2			1	0*				(0)	(100)
NE3			1	0*				(0)	(100)
NV			6	1*	609	53.4	46.6	87.7	12.3
NH			4	1*	723	54.6	45.4	96.2	3.8
NJ			14	1*	1257	61.3	38.7	100.0	0.0
NM			5	0*				(100)	(0)
NY			29	1*	699	66.2	33.8	100.0	0.0
NC			15	2	1675	45.3	54.7	0.3	99.7
ND			3	0				(0)	(100)
OH			18	1	1015	47.7	52.3	14.4	85.6
OK			7	0				(0)	(100)
OR			7	0				(100)	(0)
PA			20	2	1793	48.3	51.7	15.4	84.6
RI			4	0				(100)	(0)
SC			9	1*	959	46.5	53.5	6.2	93.8
SD			3	0*				(0)	(100)
TN			11	0*				(0)	(100)
TX			38	1*	386	55.7	44.3	94.4	5.6
UT			6	0*				(0)	(100)
VT			3	0*				(100)	(0)
VA			13	1	960	50.0	50.0	49.9	50.1
WA			12	2*	1671	53.6	46.4	98.0	2.0
WV			5	0*				(0)	(100)
WI			10	1	710	54.4	45.6	95.3	4.7
WY			3	1*	1059	36.4	63.6	0.0	100.0

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.