Clinton versus Rubio using polls from 19-Oct-14 to 19-Oct-15


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 41.4% wins (41,373 wins ), Rubio: 58.6% wins (58,627 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 25-Jul-13 28-Jul-13 890 3.3 42.0 45.0 R+3.0
PPP 04-Feb-13 05-Feb-13 1129 2.9 44.0 43.0 C+1.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 34.8% wins (34,809 wins ), Rubio: 65.2% wins (65,191 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 01-May-15 03-May-15 600 4.0 41.0 43.0 R+2.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Rubio: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Field 23-Apr-15 16-May-15 801 5.0 53.0 32.0 C+21.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.6% wins (1,586 wins ), Rubio: 98.4% wins (98,414 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Quinnipiac 09-Jul-15 20-Jul-15 1231 2.8 38.0 46.0 R+8.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Rubio: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Quinnipiac 06-Mar-15 09-Mar-15 1235 2.8 53.0 34.0 C+19.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 39.6% wins (39,623 wins ), Rubio: 60.4% wins (60,377 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Quinnipiac 25-Sep-15 05-Oct-15 1173 2.9 44.0 45.0 R+1.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 70.1% wins (70,143 wins ), Rubio: 29.9% wins (29,857 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 15-Feb-13 18-Feb-13 602 4.0 49.0 46.0 C+3.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,786 wins ), Rubio: 0.2% wins (214 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 20-Jul-15 21-Jul-15 931 3.2 49.0 37.0 C+12.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 12.8% wins (12,768 wins ), Rubio: 87.2% wins (87,232 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 18-Sep-15 20-Sep-15 1374 3.0 41.0 45.0 R+4.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 8.8% wins (8,820 wins ), Rubio: 91.2% wins (91,180 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 21-Feb-13 24-Feb-13 1229 2.8 42.0 47.0 R+5.0


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 10.2% wins (10,171 wins ), Rubio: 89.8% wins (89,829 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 18-Jun-15 21-Jun-15 1108 2.9 41.0 46.0 R+5.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 70.6% wins (70,631 wins ), Rubio: 29.4% wins (29,369 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 08-Feb-13 12-Feb-13 603 4.0 46.0 43.0 C+3.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 17.9% wins (17,881 wins ), Rubio: 82.1% wins (82,119 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Mitchell 18-Sep-15 18-Sep-15 1483 2.5 40.0 43.0 R+3.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 68.5% wins (68,516 wins ), Rubio: 31.5% wins (31,484 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 30-Jul-15 02-Aug-15 1015 3.1 42.0 40.0 C+2.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (32 wins ), Rubio: 100.0% wins (99,968 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 07-Aug-15 09-Aug-15 859 3.3 36.0 51.0 R+15.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.2% wins (3,195 wins ), Rubio: 96.8% wins (96,805 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 15-Feb-13 17-Feb-13 1011 3.1 42.0 50.0 R+8.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 87.7% wins (87,666 wins ), Rubio: 12.3% wins (12,334 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 13-Jul-15 14-Jul-15 677 3.8 48.0 42.0 C+6.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 96.2% wins (96,218 wins ), Rubio: 3.8% wins (3,782 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 21-Aug-15 24-Aug-15 841 3.4 47.0 39.0 C+8.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Rubio: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Quinnipiac 09-Apr-15 14-Apr-15 1428 2.6 54.0 34.0 C+20.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Rubio: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Siena 19-Apr-15 23-Apr-15 785 4.0 59.0 30.0 C+29.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.3% wins (299 wins ), Rubio: 99.7% wins (99,701 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Civitas 28-Sep-15 30-Sep-15 600 4.0 42.0 47.0 R+5.0
PPP 24-Sep-15 27-Sep-15 1268 2.8 40.0 50.0 R+10.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 14.4% wins (14,396 wins ), Rubio: 85.6% wins (85,604 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Quinnipiac 25-Sep-15 05-Oct-15 1180 2.9 41.0 45.0 R+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 15.4% wins (15,446 wins ), Rubio: 84.6% wins (84,554 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 08-Oct-15 11-Oct-15 1012 3.1 42.0 45.0 R+3.0
Quinnipiac 25-Sep-15 05-Oct-15 1049 3.0 42.0 45.0 R+3.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 6.2% wins (6,152 wins ), Rubio: 93.8% wins (93,848 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 03-Sep-15 06-Sep-15 1115 --- 40.0 46.0 R+6.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 94.4% wins (94,435 wins ), Rubio: 5.6% wins (5,565 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Texas Lyceum 08-Sep-15 21-Sep-15 633 3.1 34.0 27.0 C+7.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.



Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 49.9% wins (49,937 wins ), Rubio: 50.1% wins (50,063 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
CNU 29-Sep-15 08-Oct-15 1067 3.2 45.0 45.0 0.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 98.0% wins (98,008 wins ), Rubio: 2.0% wins (1,992 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Gravis 18-May-15 19-May-15 1032 3.0 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
PPP 14-May-15 17-May-15 879 3.3 49.0 39.0 C+10.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Rubio assumed to win all elections.



Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 95.3% wins (95,254 wins ), Rubio: 4.7% wins (4,746 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
Marquette 24-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 803 --- 48.1 40.3 C+7.7


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Rubio: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Rubio Diff
PPP 19-Jul-13 21-Jul-13 1203 2.8 32.0 56.0 R+24.0