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There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.
This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.
There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.
In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.
We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.
Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 301 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 307 electoral votes with a 2.67% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability
- 308 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 2.28% probability
- 295 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.12% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 2.04% probability
- 306 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 97.0%, Trump wins 3.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 308.7 (21.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 229.3 (21.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 307 (268, 352)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 231 (186, 270)
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03 Aug 2015 to 03 Aug 2016, and including polls from the preceding 1month (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 106 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 140 | 246 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 55 | 55 | 301 | |
| Weak Clinton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 301 |
| Weak Trump | 7 | 7 | 7 | 237 |
| Leans Trump | 56 | 56 | 230 | |
| Strong Trump | 112 | 174 | ||
| Safe Trump | 62 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 3690 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 435 | 37.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 2 | 1477 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 34.1 | 65.9 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 623 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.7 | 99.3 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 803 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 6 | 3601 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1024 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 93.1 | 6.9 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 529 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 98.3 | 1.7 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 3 | 2116 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 37.2 | 62.8 | ||
| GA | 16 | 3 | 1724 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 29.5 | 70.5 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1 | 402 | 34.3 | 65.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 2 | 1654 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 1779 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 5 | 3286 | 48.1 | 51.9 | 5.8 | 94.2 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 848 | 41.2 | 58.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 1825 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 1285 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 366 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 89.6 | 10.4 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 201 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 96.8 | 3.2 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 162 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 45.8 | 54.2 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 2657 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 2* | 2086 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 4 | 3310 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 1139 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1783 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2928 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1153 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 1093 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE3 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 3 | 1566 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 41.5 | 58.5 | ||
| NH | 4 | 2 | 1356 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 1.7 | 98.3 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2* | 568 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 774 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 77.2 | 22.8 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 861 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 2 | 1558 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 90.9 | 9.1 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 1226 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 0.5 | 99.5 | ||
| OH | 18 | 5 | 3817 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 70.1 | 29.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 244 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 580 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 75.2 | 24.8 | ||
| PA | 20 | 4 | 3195 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 95.6 | 4.4 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 886 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1380 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 657 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 2191 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 852 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.9 | 98.1 | ||
| UT | 6 | 3* | 2090 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 5.7 | 94.3 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 356 | 69.7 | 30.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 4 | 2299 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 81.7 | 18.3 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 584 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.2 | 0.8 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 1187 | 33.4 | 66.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1 | 536 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 77.9 | 22.1 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 690 | 29.6 | 70.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
When this is over we should put Trump voters on trial for treason. Just kidding, haha! That’s a Republican joke.
@1 no trial – just hang them!
It’s only a Fox poll, but …
“Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump to 10 points in the wake of the Democratic convention, according to a new national poll. Clinton leads Trump 49% to 39% in a head-to-head Fox News survey released Wednesday. In a three-way race including Libertarian Gary Johnson, Clinton leads 44% to 35%, with Johnson claiming 12%.”
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/03/.....index.html
It’s only a poll from a local radio station, but …
“Hillary Clinton holds commanding leads over Donald Trump in a trio of states that the GOP nominee has made central to his White House bid, according to polls released Thursday ….”
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/04/.....index.html
It seems clear that Democrats are on a roll while the GOP is divided, Trump is stumbling, and his campaign is faltering, and it’s hard to visualize the debates not harming Trump further; but it’s still a long way to November and both candidates are facing an electorate that’s frustrated, disillusioned, and angry. Anything could happen.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics is now projecting a Clinton electoral vote landslide of 347-191, when giving Arizona, Georgia, Utah, and Missouri (another 43 EVs) to Trump.
http://www.centerforpolitics.o.....t-matters/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Could Hillary get 400+? Unlikely, but not impossible.
@6 We can’t get comfortable or complacent. Progressives are notoriously bad voters. This “man” deserves nothing less than a thumping! Thump Trump! Thump Trump! Thump Trump!!!
P.S. When Hollywood crank Clint Eastwood comes out as your supporter, you know you are a loser extraordinaire.
@8 Maybe we could hire Clint to do a Trump ad. His empty chair skit probably added 1% to Obama’s margin.
Courts are now overturning voter ID laws left and right (pun intended). Just how effective are these laws at voter suppression? Research indicates they reduce turnout by about 2%, and most of those are Democratic votes. Just how prevalent is voter impersonation? A study found 31 cases out of more than 1 billion votes cast since 2000.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea.....r-id-laws/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Voter ID laws are nothing more than below-the-belt politics.
If Julian dumps a bunch more e-mails, I’m fucked.
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