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There have been 32 new polls released since the previous analysis on 3 Oct. The polls are largely post-first debate, pre-second debate and have almost all been collected before last Friday’s release of the conversation between Billy Bush and Donald Trump.
For this analysis, I have reduced the window that defines “current polls” to ten days. As the pace of polling picks up, the window will shrink some more.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,821 times and Trump wins 179 times (including the 23 ties). Clinton received (on average) 328 to Trump’s 210 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.2% probability of winning.
This is a considerable shift from the 92.5% probability Clinton had in the last analysis. Also her mean electoral vote total has climbed from 300 to 328. That’s quite a jump for one week!
There are a few state changes worth noting.
In Alaska, a new poll has Trump up by only +3%. Previous older polls had Trump with stronger showings (+21% and +14.8%), so this is quite a change. Consequently, Trump’s chances have tumbled from 100% to 71%. I don’t believe Clinton is a serious contender in Alaska, but we only have one small poll for the state, so that is what the available evidence tells us.
Two new Arizona polls don’t favor Trump. We now have three current polls for the state, one has Trump up +2, one is tied, and the most recent has Clinton up +2%. The state is 50-50 (percent) right now. Did I mention that this is Arizona?
A handful of polls favoring Trump have aged out and some new polls have been released. We now have eight polls, six that favor Clinton (+4%, +0.2%, +5%, +4%, +2%, and +3%), and two that favor Trump (+1.4% and +1%). Clinton’s chances have gone from 62.9% to 88.6%. Clearly, the state is quite close, but Clinton seems to be gaining, if slowly.
The previous analysis had Trump running strong in Iowa with a 93.5% chance of winning. The two current polls have Trump up +4% and Clinton up +0.6%, so Trump’s chances drop to 71.6%.
Nevada is another very close state. Last week, Clinton had a 52.4% probability of winning. The five current polls have one tie, three small leads for Clinton, and one for Trump. Clinton’s chances are pegged at 68.5% now.
One bit of positive news for Trump is in New Hampshire where poll turn-over has favored him slightly. He went from a 0.9% chance to 4.8% chance of taking the state.
New Mexico was modestly strong with Clinton at 77.3% chance last week with one poll with her up +4%. That poll is joined by a new one having her up a remarkable +13.5%. Her chances are now 99.3%.
Of the nine current polls in North Carolina, Clinton has small leads in the last eight. This raises her chances from last week from 56.7% to 75.3%.
Ohio has been Trump territory recently. But the most recent poll has Clinton up +2%. Combined with the three other polls (Trump +5%, +1%, and +6%), Trump’s chances have dropped from 94.8% to 85.9%.
In South Carolina, Trump drops from 100% to 77.6% because an old poll at Trump+15.4%, aged out. The remaining poll is Trump+4%. We simply need more polls in the state.
Something similar happens in Texas, where two old poll drops out and one new one is released. Trump goes from 97.2% down to 93.1% chance of winning.
A new Washington state poll has Clinton at +17%, joining another poll with Clinton at +5.7. Clinton goes from 87.5% chance to 99.9%.
In Wisconsin, an old poll drops out (Clinton+3%), one remains (Clinton+6.3), and two new polls join them (Clinton +8% and +9.6%). Clinton’s chances rise from 92% to 99.8% in Wisconsin.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2015 to 10 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 333 electoral votes with a 5.25% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 4.91% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 3.15% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.76% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.60% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.48% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 2.47% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 99.8%, Trump wins 0.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 327.7 (19.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 210.3 (19.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 327 (289, 371)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 211 (167, 249)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 143 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 120 | 263 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 59 | 59 | 322 | |
| Weak Clinton | 11 | 11 | 11 | 333 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 |
| Leans Trump | 37 | 37 | 205 | |
| Strong Trump | 126 | 168 | ||
| Safe Trump | 42 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 3690 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1 | 355 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 29.0 | 71.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 3 | 1549 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | ||
| AR | 6 | 2* | 1256 | 36.4 | 63.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 674 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 5 | 3082 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 80.8 | 19.2 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 847 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 618 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 8 | 4654 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 88.6 | 11.4 | ||
| GA | 16 | 2 | 1028 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 9.9 | 90.1 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 403 | 34.2 | 65.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 3 | 2303 | 59.1 | 40.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 474 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 8.5 | 91.5 | ||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 899 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 28.4 | 71.6 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 498 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 1.9 | 98.1 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 425 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 724 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.9 | 99.2 | ||
| ME | 2 | 3* | 1671 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 97.8 | 2.2 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 3* | 829 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 3* | 828 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 636 | 70.0 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 339 | 69.0 | 31.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 3 | 2613 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| MN | 10 | 2* | 1044 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 96.4 | 3.6 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 987 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 1126 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1153 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 594 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 35.6 | 64.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 15.7 | 84.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 23.6 | 76.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 5 | 2906 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 68.5 | 31.5 | ||
| NH | 4 | 4 | 1755 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 95.2 | 4.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 549 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 90.3 | 9.7 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2 | 796 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 1031 | 63.3 | 36.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 9 | 4645 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 75.3 | 24.7 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 300 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 3.5 | 96.5 | ||
| OH | 18 | 4 | 2104 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 14.1 | 85.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 445 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| OR | 7 | 2 | 1546 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| PA | 20 | 8 | 4458 | 53.1 | 46.9 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1 | 504 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1 | 380 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 22.4 | 77.6 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 657 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 2 | 1185 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1 | 646 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 6.9 | 93.1 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2* | 1022 | 38.1 | 61.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 439 | 64.9 | 35.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 2049 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2 | 993 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 309 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 1968 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 293 | 25.9 | 74.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Just wait till “Furniture Shopping” makes it’s way into the results. Boy Howdy is it going to move. And this is where the down ballot starts to really open up.
Moreover, I expect to see a bunch of money move between this year and the 2018 mids.
Republican = Toxic
And yet the babbling buffoon … Er …
Piddlesthe Liar is clinging to beliefs that Wikileaks and Bernie Bros and Hillary’s husband will keep her out of the Whitey House.Too damn funny.
@2,
this is how desperate Republican media elites are:
“Told there’s a rotten smell around Hillary. I’m not kidding, people say, they say — folks, I’ve been told this by high up folks. They say listen, Obama and Hillary both smell like sulfur. I never said this because the media will go crazy with it, but I’ve talked to people that are in protective details, they’re scared of her. And they say listen, she’s a frickin’ demon and she stinks and so does Obama. I go, like what? Sulfur. They smell like Hell.”
They’re going full Rosemary’s Baby on us!
So Presidential.
@3
source?
Hold it. Boob has some questions.
@5,
No doubt. Sexually assault always bears clarification for Republicans.
First question: What was she wearing?
Can’t take this roller coaster for granted. It ain’t over until it’s over. But I’d much rather be us than them.
By the way, where’s Piddles? In hiding?
I just said some stuff on Varney’s show that’s going to make feminists bleed out of their eyes with rage. You guys will be hearing about it soon, from your usual sources. Lots of stuff about Hillary and women.
Glenn Beck endorses Clinton because he can’t vote for “an immoral man.” Tells his fans “her policies can be blocked” after she’s in office.
http://www.aol.com/article/new...../21578993/
@8,
Good call, Boob.
Remain in hiding and lash out at “femi-Nazis”.
It’s bound to start working eventually.
For those of you smart enough to eschew studying Ms McDonald’s enlightened views, let me summarize:
“She deserves to be raped for dressing like a slut”
With that out of the way, we adults can move along with purpose while America’s “conservatives” continue to freak out about how fucked they are.
Yet another poll has Clinton up by double digits.
http://www.prri.org/wp-content.....Oct.-9.pdf
@12
That’s the first, I think, totally horrible poll for Trump. Why? If Trump convinces 100% of the undecideds to come to the polls and vote for him…he loses.
Wikileaks to the rescue. John McCain is also foul mouthed. Have you seen the cyber? Wikileaks. I won the debate polls folks. CNN is fake. Wikileaks.
Hmmmmm. What could account for a steep drop in GOP early ballot returns?
Is it that the Trump GOTV is just as bad as reported? Is it that the top of ticket is so bad some R voters are staying out of it? Voter fraud?
Nah, I’m sure people who voted early before are going to swarm the polls in the final days. It will be fine. Trump/Pence all the way to coattail Ridin!
@14,
They must be waiting for the party nominee to pivot.
Sure. That must be it.
What do you suppose a Republican “pivot” away from rape looks like?
@16
Straight conversion therapy?
I see pundits are now speculating about the growing possibility of a Democratic sweep. America isn’t dysfunctional, only the Republican Party is dysfunctional, and there’s nothing wrong with America that Democratic control of the White House, Senate, House, and Supreme Court can’t fix. Get rid of the Republicans and everything will be fine.
It’s like they’re having some kind of competition among Trump’s paid surrogates to see who can go onto a show and sound worse.
They obviously don’t have anybody inside the tent who can tell them the right way to discuss this. Basically, they all pretty much seem to agree with the nominee, that he should be able to say and do whatever he wants and as long as he apologizes it’s okay and the voters should just accept that and move on.
Without a coherent and effective communication strategy, the only sensible thing they can do would be to shut the fuck up. But they don’t. None of them knows what they are doing. They don’t know how to do it without causing further damage. But they are going ahead and doing it anyway.
Knowing as we do, that these guys don’t understand global security (nuclear triad anyone? Buehler?) would it make any sense at all to put Republicans in charge ever again? Even when, like W, they appear sincerely interested in figuring it out, it’s pretty clear now that they can’t. It’s just not in them. Put ’em in charge and they will fuck it up. They won’t sit still until they can figure it out. They’ll go ahead and do stuff anyway, even though they really don’t know how. And American kids will pay the price.
#NeverRepublicans
Hmm. It seems as though the Russian government propaganda arm has a direct line to the The Don’s campaign.
Apparently, The Don has been receiving his talking points directly from Vladimir Putin. I wonder how much he’s into the Russian Banksters for? A Billion? maybe two? They’d very likely also know where the bodies are buried, because the business that The Don is in is rather famous for having a lot of “holes in the desert” so to speak. Hell, it’s even mostly the same people.
I’m sure they’ll find a way to “forgive” his debts once he becomes President and sells out the whole country to them. It looks like he’s into a situation where he really has to win if he wants to save his life. Otherwise, he gets fitted for a pair of cement shoes, and the GOP establishment would be downright enthusiastic about blaming the pointy-headed Liberals for it so long as it gets them back into the Whitey House.
Dear, oh dear.
Tsk tsk tsk….
Shame about your country. That’s too bad. We could have helped you, but you just couldn’t keep your mouth shut. Now you’se can’t leave.
I’m not Boob, Distant Replay.
way to go Seattle! YYEEAAAHHHH! Open up them parks to the street urchins, vagrants, drug zombies, thieves, lazy bums.
Just think kiddos, the next time you play Frisbie Golf, walk your dog, hackey sack, or just a game a touch football, you get to dodge used needles, human shit, discarded stolen bike parts, and the passed out worthless POS laying on the ground.
Just tell the wife and kiddos that its Play in the Park Day!
what a wonderful city! are you glad you voted for your progressive council and Mr. Mayor Vote4MeBecause#Gay!!!
Homelessness will be eliminated in 10 years(they said 10 years ago), just send us money! HAHHAHAHHAHAHAH!
oh hey: dont forget to write that check for the Pronto Bikes that are now on their way to the dumpster. hahahahahahahaha!
has anybody seen the self cleaning public restroom? Cant seem to find it anywhere…..
laughing stock…..you guys are fucking idiots..
YLB comment in 3….2….1….
@ 23
Of course, your idea is to continue to do nothing.
You could choose Guliani’s method. Just make a few thousand of them disappear without a trace. Nobody would really even notice.
24
Lolz….yes, im sure the mayor of new york sent out his hit squads to “make disappear” thousands of people….without anybody catching wind of it…..
Did you hear about the faked moon mission?
Oh hi little maxwipe butt plugg. Yours truly does indeed have a comment:
@darryl little maxwipe butt plugg’s spew is off-topic. Could you teach the idiot to wait for an open thread?
Thanks!
24
So you call spending over $100 million doing nothing?
Haha…..but hey, you keep writing them checks and voting in those same progressive politicians, im sure they will have the problem solved soon! Just need a little more time and money! They are close to eliminating homelessness! Dont stop now! Its all been a success! Almost got it all solved!
Hahhahahaha
On Topic inasmuch as it relates to polling
There have been 18 polls of a four way race in PA since August first. Trump has been on top of…wait for it….ZERO.
There have been 24 Clinton/Trump only PA polls since July and Trump had a lead on….ONE. Poll taken 6/29-7/11.
NO YOU EGOMANIACAL FASCISTIC ASSHOLE. PA isn’t going to be ‘stolen’ from you. You’re going to lose because you suck at everything and PA knows it.
I knew it wouldnt take long for mr(s) Anal Fetish to chime in….I have had him trained for years.
Wifey gonna use the strap-on tonight on..in…ya? Face down, ass up! Bet you dont even need lube anymore…..your Teabagged’s wet dream!
Half latino…..half female!
@29
Yep. That’ll win back the women’s vote. And the Gay. And the not openly anti human. And….
When you look in the mirror do you see a dying breed of straight white God fearing American men and wonder why you can’t just call women sluts and gays faggot and blacks nigger and Japs and Chinks and Wops and Kikes the good old days?
@22,
And you sure as fuck aren’t Heather MacDonald either.
But staying on topic perhaps ersatz Heather can advise us about which Republican Senate candidate best exemplifies the new Republican virtue of sexual assault?
Or has she gone furniture shopping?
Clinton has a very good week because we see how the national libtard media shills for Careless Crooked Heilary. Wikileaks displays emails on how Clinton wants global government, big banskters in control and all we heard was Trump!
Oh was that on topic salt mining fetid clueless monomaniacal yellowishleakingbuttspigot arschloch jackASS?
@32 yours truly cares not babbling jackass. Your sad spews are almost as worthless as little maxwipe butt plugg’s unhinged hate for Seattle.
Darryl decides oh feckless one.
@32
Yarrrrrrrgh.
Librul media! Vince Foster! Heilery! Wikileaks! Hacking!
If they knew This! ™ why the whole country would be up in arms about something. Why don’t they call Sean Hannity.
Only Sean knows the TRUTH.
Yaaaaaaargh.