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Poll Analysis: A small surge for Romney

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Obama Romney
93.4% probability of winning 6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 292 electoral votes Mean of 246 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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Electoral College Map

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We’re at an interesting point in the presidential race. I’ve been running analyses a couple of times a day as new batches of polls are found and entered, and the race has bounced up and down with each batch of polls. (I had a pretty packed weekend, so didn’t have the opportunity to post any of these analyses since my previous analysis.)

For example, yesterday afternoon, Romney was down to about 3% probability of winning. By yesterday late evening, with a few more polls, Romney had surged to something around 17%.

Today’s batch of polls have been mixed, but slightly more favorable to Obama.

Here they are:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Reason-Rupe 11-Oct 15-Oct 508 5.1 53 38 O+15
CO Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 46 50 R+4
DC PPP 12-Oct 14-Oct 1222 2.8 88 8 O+80
FL PPP 18-Oct 18-Oct 800 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 750 4.0 46 51 R+5
FL SurveyUSA 17-Oct 18-Oct 600 4.1 47.5 45.5 O+2.0
FL FOX News 17-Oct 18-Oct 1130 3.0 45 48 R+3
FL CNN/OR 17-Oct 18-Oct 681 4.0 48 49 R+1
IA Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 48 48 tie
IA PPP 18-Oct 19-Oct 660 3.8 49 48 O+1
IA PPP 17-Oct 19-Oct 869 3.3 48 49 R+1
MD WA Post 11-Oct 15-Oct 843 4.0 60 36 O+24
MO PPP 19-Oct 21-Oct 582 4.1 46 52 R+6
MO Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 500 4.5 43 54 R+11
NV Mellman Group 15-Oct 17-Oct 600 4.0 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 17-Oct 21-Oct 773 3.5 51 42 O+9
NH PPP 17-Oct 19-Oct 1036 3.0 48 49 R+1
NJ SurveyUSA 17-Oct 18-Oct 577 4.2 56.3 41.5 O+14.9
NJ Stockton 12-Oct 18-Oct 811 3.5 53 38 O+15
NC Grove Insight 17-Oct 18-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
OH Suffolk 18-Oct 21-Oct 600 4.0 46.5 46.7 R+0.2
OH PPP 18-Oct 20-Oct 532 4.3 49 48 O+1
OH Quinnipiac 17-Oct 20-Oct 1548 3.0 50 45 O+5
OH Gravis Marketing 18-Oct 19-Oct 1943 2.2 47 47 tie
OH FOX News 17-Oct 18-Oct 1131 3.0 46 43 O+3
OR SurveyUSA 16-Oct 18-Oct 579 4.2 48.9 42.3 O+6.6
PA Gravis Marketing 21-Oct 21-Oct 887 3.3 48 45 O+3
PA Muhlenberg 17-Oct 21-Oct 444 5.0 50 45 O+5
UT U UT 08-Oct 13-Oct 206 7.6 21 74 R+53
VA PPP 18-Oct 19-Oct 500 4.4 49 47 O+2
VA Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 750 4.0 47 50 R+3
WI Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 500 4.5 50 48 O+2

Romney leads in the new Colorado poll. The candidates split 3 and 3, the six current polls. Overall, the edge goes to Obama who earned +1% more “votes”, and would be expected to win now with a 71% probability. Here is the last three weeks of polls in a picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Colorado

In D.C. Obama up by +80% over Romney. That’s not the probability of winning D.C.—that’s the point spread!

The five new Florida polls go 4:1 for Romney. He now leads in 9 of 11 current polls, usually by small, single-digit, margins.

Iowa must be close. We have one tie, a +1% for Romney and a +1% for Obama. Overall, with six current polls that show two ties, one lead for Romney, and three leads for Obama. Together, the polls support Obama winning with a 90% probability right now. Here is the picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Iowa

Two new Missouri polls, two new leads for Romney.

Obama takes the new Nevada poll. He now leads in five of six current polls, and the last one is a tie. Obama’s lead is expected to hold (now, anyway) with a 96% probability.

New Hampshire has been bouncing around for the past week. A new poll give Obama a +9% and another new poll gives Romney a +1%. Of the six current polls, Obama leads in two, Romney in three (but one is very close), and there is one tie. Overall, Obama takes +1% more of the “votes” and has about a 67% probability of winning.

We only get one new North Carolina poll, and it has Obama up by +3%. But Romney leads in four of the five current polls and, overall, has better prospects for winning the state—an 83% probability at this point.

Oh, Ohio, how you tease the Obama supporters and taunt the Romney supporters! There are five new polls and Romney leads in one of these by a +0.2% edge. The raw data are 280 “votes” for Romney and 279 “votes” for Obama. One other poll is a tie, and Obama takes the rest. But from a total of 12 current polls, Obama leads in eight of them. From a total of 11,289 surveyed individuals, Obama takes 51.1% and Romney takes 48.9%. Obama would be expected to win an election now in the state with a 95% probability.

It has been a month since the last Oregon poll, and the new one finds Obama with a modest +6.6% lead over Romney.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both have Obama leading, albeit narrowly. In fact, Obama has single digit leads in seven of eight current polls, with Romney up in the eighth.

Obama takes one of the two new Virginia polls. It has been a long time since that has happened. But Romney easily leads in four of the six current polls, and one of the six was a tie. Overall, Romney gets a 69% probability of taking the state in an election right now. This is clear from the past three weeks:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Virginia

The new Wisconsin poll goes to Obama, but by a tight +2%. Obama takes all five current polls, but all by small margins. Here is the big picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Wisconsin

From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,430 times and Romney wins 6,570 times (including the 578 ties). Obama receives (on average) 292 (-8) to Romney’s 246 (+8) electoral votes. Obama has a 93.4% (-3.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 6.6% (+3.3%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22-Oct-2011 to 22-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 290 electoral votes with a 6.91% probability
  • 291 electoral votes with a 5.89% probability
  • 281 electoral votes with a 3.46% probability
  • 287 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
  • 286 electoral votes with a 3.16% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 3.13% probability
  • 284 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
  • 282 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
  • 299 electoral votes with a 2.37% probability
  • 303 electoral votes with a 2.32% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 93.4%, Romney wins 6.6%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 292.5 (16.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 245.5 (16.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 291 (261, 330)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 247 (208, 277)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 178
Strong Obama 86 264
Leans Obama 26 26 290
Weak Obama 0 0 0 290
Weak Romney 1 1 1 248
Leans Romney 29 29 247
Strong Romney 130 218
Safe Romney 88

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.1 99.9
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 4* 1936 47.1 52.9 3.2 96.8
AR 6 1* 2006 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
CA 55 3 1680 59.8 40.2 100.0 0.0
CO 9 6 5608 50.5 49.5 70.9 29.1
CT 7 3 1993 56.4 43.6 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1 1173 91.6 8.4 100.0 0.0
FL 29 11 8124 48.9 51.1 7.8 92.2
GA 16 1 664 45.8 54.2 6.1 93.9
HI 4 1* 1549 67.4 32.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1 563 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1* 637 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 570 43.2 56.8 1.1 98.9
IA 6 6 5026 51.3 48.7 90.0 10.0
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.6 99.4
LA 8 1* 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 5* 2886 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2* 588 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2* 538 54.6 45.4 93.2 6.8
MD 10 1 809 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
MA 11 3 2185 58.0 42.0 100.0 0.0
MI 16 3 1692 53.0 47.0 96.8 3.2
MN 10 1 495 55.6 44.4 96.5 3.5
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 1056 45.7 54.3 2.4 97.6
MT 3 3 1949 44.8 55.2 0.1 99.9
NE 2 1* 728 44.0 56.0 1.0 99.0
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.3 89.7
NE2 1 1* 352 50.0 50.0 48.4 51.6
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 6 3316 52.2 47.8 96.1 3.9
NH 4 6 3745 50.5 49.5 67.4 32.6
NJ 14 4 3245 55.7 44.3 100.0 0.0
NM 5 2 1064 55.6 44.4 99.5 0.5
NY 29 1* 1426 64.6 35.4 100.0 0.0
NC 15 5 2758 48.7 51.3 16.8 83.2
ND 3 1* 588 42.5 57.5 0.5 99.5
OH 18 12 11289 51.1 48.9 95.0 5.0
OK 7 1* 431 33.4 66.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1 528 53.6 46.4 88.1 11.9
PA 20 8 6278 51.2 48.8 90.4 9.6
RI 4 2* 900 63.9 36.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 5.2 94.8
SD 3 1* 706 44.3 55.7 1.9 98.1
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.1 92.9
TX 38 2* 2090 41.1 58.9 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1 195 22.1 77.9 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 6 4389 49.5 50.5 30.6 69.4
WA 12 4 2150 55.3 44.7 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.5 98.5
WI 10 5 3763 51.7 48.3 93.2 6.8
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Romney leads in the new Colorado poll. The candidates split 3 and 3, the six current polls.

    My city loving, bike riding, hip folks are letting suburban douche nozzles kick there ass. This is just wrong.

  3. 3

    I actually think that this is what the election night map is going to look like, plus/minus Virginia.

  4. 4

    The good news is that the narrow leads in a number of states provide an incentive for the Democrates to get out and vote. Lately the Republicans have been hoping to pull a rabbit out of their hat (no offense intended, Roger) by keeping their base motivated and headed to the polls. Now is the time for the Democrats to do the same.

  5. 5

    @3 Yeah, I posted weeks ago that I thought Obama’s EV tally would be in the 290’s. It still looks that way despite Rmoney’s mini-surge.

  6. 6

    @5
    I hope for something gaudy, like 340+, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida. Arizona – dare to dream.

    I’ll take 292 any day.

  7. 7

    @6 I’ll take anything north of 269. Btw, has anyone done a House count in case of an EV tie?

  9. 9

    Most of the change from the previous analysis is from Arizona. There was a flukey recent poll from Behavior Research Center, that gave Obama a 62.7% chance of winning, that was the only recent poll.

    Now that flukey poll is aged out, and Darryl is using four less recent polls (including Behavior Research), the other three of which give Romney pretty decent leads. Now Romney has a 96.8% chance of winning. Arizona miraculously goes from light blue to a moderately dark red!

    This change is worth about 7 of Arizona’s EV’s on average. So we go from 238 EV’s in the last analysis to 246 EV’s for Romney now — basically mirroring the change in Arizona that an extra day or two makes under this model.

  11. 11

    Rabbit @ 7

    12th amendment says each state gets one vote in the House of Representatives if there is a tie.

    As far as I can tell, 33 states have a Republican majority in the U.S. House, 14 states have a Democratic majority, and three states (Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington — the latter two due to vacant Democratic seats) are evenly divided.

    This may change somewhat in the election next month, but probably not by that much.

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