Obama versus Romney using polls from 22-Oct-11 to 22-Oct-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (75 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,925 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 13-Aug-12 16-Aug-12 452 4.6 35.4 54.0 R+18.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 3.2% wins (3,187 wins ), Romney: 96.8% wins (96,813 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rocky Mountain 04-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 523 4.4 44.0 42.0 O+2.0
PPP 01-Oct-12 03-Oct-12 594 4.0 44.0 53.0 R+9.0
Moore 25-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 500 4.0 42.0 46.0 R+4.0
Rasmussen 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 500 4.5 42.0 52.0 R+10.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Reason-Rupe 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 508 5.1 53.0 38.0 O+15.0
Pepperdine U 07-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 831 3.4 54.0 32.9 O+21.1
SurveyUSA 07-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 539 4.3 53.0 39.0 O+14.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 70.9% wins (70,933 wins ), Romney: 29.1% wins (29,067 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
PPP 16-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1000 3.1 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
Grove Insight 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 500 4.4 47.0 44.0 O+3.0
WeAskAmerica 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 1206 2.9 47.0 48.1 R+1.1
SurveyUSA 09-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 614 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Gravis Marketing 05-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 2089 2.2 48.4 46.0 O+2.4


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 1015 3.1 53.0 44.0 O+9.0
U CT 11-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 574 4.0 51.0 37.0 O+14.0
Siena 04-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 552 4.2 53.0 38.0 O+15.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1222 2.8 88.0 8.0 O+80.0


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

11 polls

Obama: 7.8% wins (7,761 wins ), Romney: 92.2% wins (92,239 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 800 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 750 4.0 46.0 51.0 R+5.0
SurveyUSA 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 600 4.1 47.5 45.5 O+2.0
FOX News 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1130 3.0 45.0 48.0 R+3.0
CNN/OR 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 681 4.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Gravis Marketing 13-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 617 4.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 791 3.4 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 11-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 750 4.0 47.0 51.0 R+4.0
ARG 08-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 600 4.0 46.0 49.0 R+3.0
Mason-Dixon 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 800 3.5 44.0 51.0 R+7.0
Marist 07-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 988 3.1 48.0 47.0 O+1.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 6.1% wins (6,089 wins ), Romney: 93.9% wins (93,911 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Abt SRBI 08-Oct-12 12-Oct-12 706 5.3 43.0 51.0 R+8.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Civil Beat 26-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 1684 2.4 62.0 30.0 O+32.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 625 4.0 27.0 63.0 R+36.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Tribune WGN 04-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 700 3.7 55.0 36.0 O+19.0


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.1% wins (1,133 wins ), Romney: 98.9% wins (98,867 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 10-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 600 4.0 41.0 54.0 R+13.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 90.0% wins (89,979 wins ), Romney: 10.0% wins (10,021 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0
PPP 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 660 3.8 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
PPP 17-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 869 3.3 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Marist 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 1137 2.9 51.0 43.0 O+8.0
WeAskAmerica 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 1499 2.6 48.7 45.9 O+2.8
ARG 11-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 600 4.0 48.0 48.0 0.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6
SurveyUSA 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 800 3.5 31.4 56.3 R+24.9


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.6% wins (613 wins ), Romney: 99.4% wins (99,387 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 606 4.1 39.0 53.0 R+14.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Magellan Strategies 02-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 2682 1.9 36.0 59.0 R+23.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

5 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 400 4.9 50.8 36.8 O+14.0
Rasmussen 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 500 4.5 52.0 40.0 O+12.0
PPP 17-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 804 3.5 55.0 39.0 O+16.0
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 856 3.4 53.5 37.3 O+16.2
Critical Insights 12-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 618 4.0 52.0 36.0 O+16.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 52.5 35.4 O+17.1
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 445 --- 58.7 33.9 O+24.8


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Obama: 93.2% wins (93,190 wins ), Romney: 6.8% wins (6,810 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Pan Atlantic SMS 24-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 200 --- 49.0 38.1 O+10.9
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 410 --- 47.8 41.0 O+6.8


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WA Post 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 843 4.0 60.0 36.0 O+24.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 709 3.7 57.0 39.0 O+18.0
PPP 09-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 1051 3.0 55.0 41.0 O+14.0
Rasmussen 10-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 500 4.5 57.0 42.0 O+15.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 96.8% wins (96,794 wins ), Romney: 3.2% wins (3,206 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
EPIC/MRA 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 800 3.5 52.0 46.0 O+6.0
Rasmussen 11-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 500 4.5 52.0 45.0 O+7.0
Denno Research 09-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 500 4.5 44.2 40.5 O+3.7


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 96.5% wins (96,544 wins ), Romney: 3.5% wins (3,456 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 550 4.3 50.0 40.0 O+10.0


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 2.4% wins (2,388 wins ), Romney: 97.6% wins (97,612 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 19-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 582 4.1 46.0 52.0 R+6.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 500 4.5 43.0 54.0 R+11.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 0.1% wins (84 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,916 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 806 3.5 43.0 53.0 R+10.0
Rasmussen 14-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 500 4.5 45.0 53.0 R+8.0
PPP 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 737 3.6 41.0 52.0 R+11.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 1.0% wins (962 wins ), Romney: 99.0% wins (99,038 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 40.0 51.0 R+11.0


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 10.3% wins (10,335 wins ), Romney: 89.7% wins (89,665 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 432 --- 41.0 49.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 48.4% wins (48,393 wins ), Romney: 51.6% wins (51,607 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 400 4.9 44.0 44.0 0.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 319 --- 32.0 57.0 R+25.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 96.1% wins (96,087 wins ), Romney: 3.9% wins (3,913 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mellman Group 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 600 4.0 51.0 43.0 O+8.0
Grove Insight 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 500 4.4 50.0 43.0 O+7.0
Rasmussen 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 47.0 O+3.0
SurveyUSA 11-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 806 3.5 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
PPP 08-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 594 4.0 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
Rasmussen 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.5 47.0 47.0 0.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 67.4% wins (67,355 wins ), Romney: 32.6% wins (32,645 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U NH 17-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 773 3.5 51.0 42.0 O+9.0
PPP 17-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 1036 3.0 48.0 49.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 15-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 49.0 O+1.0
Suffolk 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 500 4.4 46.8 47.2 R+0.4
ARG 09-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 600 4.0 46.0 50.0 R+4.0
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 577 4.2 56.3 41.5 O+14.9
Stockton 12-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 811 3.5 53.0 38.0 O+15.0
Neighborhood Research 10-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 783 3.5 48.4 41.4 O+7.0
Quinnipiac 10-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1319 2.7 51.0 43.0 O+8.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 99.5% wins (99,544 wins ), Romney: 0.5% wins (456 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Research & Polling 09-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 658 3.8 49.0 39.0 O+10.0
Rasmussen 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 500 4.5 54.0 43.0 O+11.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 04-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1486 2.5 62.0 34.0 O+28.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 16.8% wins (16,818 wins ), Romney: 83.2% wins (83,182 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Grove Insight 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 500 4.4 47.0 44.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 500 4.5 46.0 52.0 R+6.0
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1084 3.0 47.0 49.0 R+2.0
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 48.0 51.0 R+3.0
High Point U 06-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 302 --- 43.0 49.0 R+6.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.5% wins (467 wins ), Romney: 99.5% wins (99,533 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 03-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 625 4.0 40.0 54.0 R+14.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Obama: 95.0% wins (95,038 wins ), Romney: 5.0% wins (4,962 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Suffolk 18-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 600 4.0 46.5 46.7 R+0.2
PPP 18-Oct-12 20-Oct-12 532 4.3 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
Quinnipiac 17-Oct-12 20-Oct-12 1548 3.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Gravis Marketing 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 1943 2.2 47.0 47.0 0.0
FOX News 17-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 1131 3.0 46.0 43.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 17-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 750 4.0 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
SurveyUSA 12-Oct-12 15-Oct-12 613 4.0 45.4 42.4 O+2.9
PPP 12-Oct-12 13-Oct-12 880 3.3 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Rasmussen 10-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 750 4.0 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
Gravis Marketing 06-Oct-12 10-Oct-12 1313 2.7 45.1 45.9 R+0.8
Marist 07-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 994 3.1 51.0 45.0 O+6.0
Pulse 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1000 3.0 47.0 46.0 O+1.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SoonerPoll 26-Jul-12 14-Aug-12 495 --- 29.0 58.0 R+29.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 88.1% wins (88,128 wins ), Romney: 11.9% wins (11,872 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 16-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 579 4.2 48.9 42.3 O+6.6


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Obama: 90.4% wins (90,414 wins ), Romney: 9.6% wins (9,586 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 21-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 887 3.3 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Muhlenberg 17-Oct-12 21-Oct-12 444 5.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Quinnipiac 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 1519 2.5 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
PPP 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 500 4.4 51.0 44.0 O+7.0
Susquehanna 11-Oct-12 13-Oct-12 1376 --- 45.0 49.0 R+4.0
Muhlenberg 10-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 438 5.0 47.0 44.0 O+3.0
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Pulse 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1000 3.0 47.0 45.0 O+2.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Brown U 26-Sep-12 05-Oct-12 496 4.4 58.2 32.3 O+25.9
WPRI 26-Sep-12 29-Sep-12 501 4.4 57.0 33.0 O+24.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 5.2% wins (5,212 wins ), Romney: 94.8% wins (94,788 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Marist 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 2131 2.1 40.0 46.0 R+6.0
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 587 4.0 38.0 53.0 R+15.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.9% wins (1,924 wins ), Romney: 98.1% wins (98,076 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 01-Oct-12 05-Oct-12 762 3.6 41.1 51.6 R+10.5


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.1% wins (7,107 wins ), Romney: 92.9% wins (92,893 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Vanderbilt Poll 02-May-12 09-May-12 752 4.0 40.0 47.0 R+7.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Texas Lyceum 10-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 1175 2.8 39.0 58.0 R+19.0
WPA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 1000 3.1 40.0 55.0 R+15.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
U UT 08-Oct-12 13-Oct-12 206 7.6 21.0 74.0 R+53.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Aug-12 21-Aug-12 477 --- 62.0 25.0 O+37.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 30.6% wins (30,637 wins ), Romney: 69.4% wins (69,363 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 18-Oct-12 19-Oct-12 500 4.4 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 750 4.0 47.0 50.0 R+3.0
ARG 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 600 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Rasmussen 11-Oct-12 11-Oct-12 750 4.0 47.0 49.0 R+2.0
Marist 07-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 981 3.1 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
Pulse 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1000 3.0 48.0 48.0 0.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,990 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (10 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 15-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 574 --- 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Rasmussen 14-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 500 4.5 55.0 42.0 O+13.0
SurveyUSA 12-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 543 4.3 54.0 40.0 O+14.0
Washington Poll 01-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 644 3.9 51.9 42.9 O+9.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.5% wins (1,545 wins ), Romney: 98.5% wins (98,455 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
R.L. Repass 22-Aug-12 25-Aug-12 401 4.9 38.0 52.0 R+14.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 93.2% wins (93,160 wins ), Romney: 6.8% wins (6,840 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 18-Oct-12 18-Oct-12 500 4.5 50.0 48.0 O+2.0
Marist 15-Oct-12 17-Oct-12 1013 3.1 51.0 45.0 O+6.0
Marquette 11-Oct-12 14-Oct-12 870 3.4 48.5 48.1 O+0.5
Rasmussen 09-Oct-12 09-Oct-12 500 4.5 51.0 49.0 O+2.0
Pulse 08-Oct-12 08-Oct-12 1000 3.0 50.0 46.0 O+4.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.