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The biggest blockbuster movie of the summer won’t be M-i-III or United 93 or even the Da Vinci Code. Sure, they may draw a little more audience, but the biggest film this summer, in terms of impact, is going to be a documentary based on a lecture by a former politician with a reputation for being dry and stiff.

Of course, I’m talking about Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth.

The movie’s trailer (which I strongly urge you to watch) bills itself as “By far, the most terrifying film you will ever see.” And I don’t believe that is a typical, Hollywood overstatement.

The film is based on Gore’s touring presentation on global warming, which I had the privilege to attend a few weeks back in Seattle. Frankly, I was stunned, not so much by the scientific research — I already knew most of that — but by the way Gore so compellingly connected the dots to drive home the full impact of our impending global climate crisis.

An Inconvenient Truth has the potential to change minds and move people to action, and thus deserves all the hype it can get. It opens May 24 in select markets, and Friday June 2 in Seattle. The film’s website asks you to pledge to see the movie on the opening weekend, and I’d like to try to organize a group here in Seattle.

The film will be playing at The Guild 45th and the AMC Pacific Place. (I’ll post show times as soon as I have them.) Please let me know in the comment thread, or via email, if you’re interested in joining me.

UPDATE:
Richard Cohen describes the film:

Boring Al Gore has made a movie. It is on the most boring of all subjects — global warming. It is more than 80 minutes long and the first two or three go by slowly enough so that you can notice that Gore has gained weight and that his speech still seems oddly out of sync. But a moment later, I promise, you will be captivated, and then riveted, and then scared out of your wits. Our Earth is going to hell in a hand basket.

You will see the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps melting. You will see Greenland oozing into the sea. You will see the atmosphere polluted with greenhouse gases that block heat from escaping. You will see photos from space of what the ice caps looked like once and what they look like now and, in animation, you will see how high the oceans might rise. Shanghai and Calcutta swamped. Much of Florida, too. The water takes a hunk of New York. The fuss about what to do with Ground Zero will turn naught. It will be under water.

I couldn’t go to bed without briefly commenting on the latest news from our state’s best known professional blowhard.

Supporters of an effort to overturn the state’s new gay civil-rights law sent out an e-mail Wednesday saying they’ve collected just a fraction of the signatures needed to get the measure to voters.

Tim Eyman sent the e-mail to supporters and the media, saying that only 8,718 signatures have been gathered. He needs 112,440 valid voter signatures by June 7 to get Referendum 65 on the November ballot.

Hmm. What to think?

Well, on the one hand, knowing what I know about Eyman’s organization (or lack thereof), it really wouldn’t surprise me to learn that R-65’s signature gathering efforts have been so anemic. But on the other hand… Timmy’s a pathological liar.

Further complicating the analysis is the fact that Eyman’s email touting his dismal performance is entirely out of character. Indeed, his usual M.O. is to flood supporters with upbeat proclamations that he’s “never seen this much excitement before,” but urging everyone to work (and give) harder because it always takes a “Herculean effort” to get any initiative on the ballot. Such guarded pollyannaisms are Tim’s norm, regardless of a measure’s actual public support.

I suppose it is possible this latest email could be a clever feint, but I fail to see the tactical advantage of portraying his campaign as weaker than it really is, and besides… Timmy isn’t really all that clever. So in the absence of even the tiniest scrap of evidence that the R-65 signature drive is gaining any traction whatsoever (you know, like actual people gathering actual signatures)… I’m going to have to reluctantly take Eyman at his word.

(Yuck.)

So… absent a sudden, six-figure infusion of cash, R-65 doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of making it onto the ballot.

Let’s look at the numbers. To qualify for the ballot Eyman must collect 112,440 signatures by June 7, but not all these will be valid. The Secretary of State recommends a cushion of 25 percent, but let’s be generous and say Tim can get by with only 10 percent, for a minimum target of 124,000 signatures.

As of yesterday, Eyman claimed to have collected only 8,718 signatures, while hateful, nutcase preacher Joe Fuiten claimed to have another 2,900. That left them about 112,000 shy of their target with only 42 days before the deadline. To put this in perspective, they’re now less than one-tenth towards their goal, more than halfway through the 90-day signature gathering period.

To qualify for the ballot, the R-65 campaign would have to collect about 2,700 signatures a day, 7 days a week, from now until June 7… not necessarily an impossible task if you can afford to hire an army of paid signature gatherers.

But Tim can’t.

For the past couple years, Timmy has essentially been a kept man, financing his campaigns (and his lifestyle) primarily through the generous support of one Michael Dunmire of Woodenville. His latest $30 Car Tab initiative is flush with Dunmire cash, but R-65… not so much. Eyman claims to have raised only $13,000 thus far, but most of this actually consists of loans from him and the Fagans. In fact, as of March 31, R-65 had raised only $1041.01 in cash contributions.

So what we’re looking at here is an all volunteer signature drive, a difficult endeavor under the best of circumstances, and something Eyman has never organized. I suppose the strategy, so to speak, was to rely on conservative church groups to gather signatures, and I guess the hope was that the effort would somehow organize itself spontaneously.

But with the exception of those rare ballot measures that simply catch fire, successful signature drives require either an immense amount of planning and organization, or an immense amount of money… and Eyman has neither. The truth is, without Dunmire’s money, Eyman brings little to the table other than a knack for garnering undeserved media attention, and a hateful measure like R-65 requires a helluva lot more resources than that.

11 ranking Members of the United States House of Representatives will be filing a law suit in U.S. District court on Friday, The BRAD BLOG has learned, seeking a permanent injunction of “Deficit Reduction Act” which George W. Bush signed into law on February 8th of this year, despite its not having passed both houses of Congress.

Gee. I guess President Bush never watched Schoolhouse Rock.

Now, maybe I’m just talking out of my ass here, but I can’t help but think that this is the perfect Democrat to run in Eastern Washington.

Former GOPolitburo chair Chris Vance seems to think the Dems are merely running a hat for Congress, but in Peter Goldmark we’ve got ourselves a genuine cowboy with an impressive resume, who clearly shares the values of his community.

This race won’t be easy, but if Goldmark raises money, runs strong and catches a 1994 like wave, he can make Cathy McMorris a one-termer.

I don’t generally like to print rumors until I’ve confirmed them, but this one is too hot to wait for my calls to be returned.

Word is that State Sen. Bill Finkbeiner (45th LD) will not run for reelection this November, and that Rep. Toby Nixon will run to replace him. I called Sen. Finkbeiner’s office, and the woman I spoke to seemed surprised, but did not outright deny it, and promised to get back to me quickly with an official response.

Meanwhile, I just got off the phone with Democratic challenger Eric Oemig, and he assured me that he was staying in the senate race, regardless of who his opponent is:

“It’s never been about Fink. This is about making Washington stronger, and making politics better.”

I’ll update when I get confirmation one way or the other.

UPDATE:
Rep. Toby Nixon responds:

“My understanding is that the Senator plans to issue a press release on this issue at 11AM. I’ve been quite public with my intentions: if he does not run for re-election, then I will run for the senate seat.”

UPDATE, UPDATE:
It’s official:

“The first word that comes to mind when I think about representing my district in the Legislature is “grateful’,” said Finkbeiner, who was first elected to the House of Representatives fourteen years ago. “I feel incredibly fortunate to have had the opportunity to serve in the Legislature, but at this time my family and I have agreed that the time is right to step aside and give someone else an opportunity to represent the district as Senator while I turn my attention to a career outside of politics.”

According to Roll Call, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has chosen the first batch of 22 House challengers for inclusion in their coveted Red-to-Blue program… and looky whose name is at the top of the list:

  Darcy Burner (Wash. 8th)
  Phyllis Busansky (Fla. 9th)
  Francine Busby (Calif. 50th)
  Joe Courtney (Conn. 2nd)
  John Cranley (Ohio 1st)
  Jill Derby (Nev. 2nd)
  Tammy Duckworth (Ill. 6th)
  Brad Ellsworth (Ind. 8th)
  Diane Farrell (Conn. 4th)
  Steve Filson (Calif. 11th)
  Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y. 20th)
  Tessa Hafen (Nev. 3rd)
  Baron Hill (Ind. 9th)
  Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio 15th)
  Ron Klein (Fla. 22nd)
  Ken Lucas (Ky. 4th)
  Patricia Madrid (N.M. 1st)
  Harry Mitchell (Ariz. 5th)
  Chris Murphy (Conn. 5th)
  Lois Murphy (Pa. 6th)
  Heath Shuler (N.C. 11th)
  Peter Welch (Vt. At-large)

Of course, Darcy Burner is at the top, because the list is in alphabetical order, but the fact that she made it at all is both an indicator of how seriously the DCCC is now taking WA-08, and a tribute to Burner’s hard work and natural talents. Burner has proven to DC insiders what she believed all along… that she’s the perfect candidate to represent her district.

This is a big deal. A few short months ago both parties were writing off this race. Now, thanks in part to the netroots-fueled fundraising surge that helped Burner blow past her first quarter targets, the Reichert campaign is running scared and the DCCC is committing significant resources into the district.

“This is an exclusive program that rewards the candidates who and campaigns that are most skilled, not only at raising money on their own, but at getting their message across to the voters they hope to represent,” [DCCC chairman Rep. Rahm] Emanuel explained in the memo.

In the 2004 cycle, two dozen Red-to-Blue candidates each took in about $250,000 in additional donations thanks to the program, but the DCCC promises that this year’s effort will be even bigger, with the program launching earlier in the cycle and many more candidates expected to participate.

The Roll Call piece goes on to specifically mention nationally hyped Red-to-Blue races like Francine Busby’s bid to replace the disgraced Duke Cunningham in CA-50 and Tammy Duckworth’s race to succeed the retiring Henry Hyde in IL-6. But as I noted the other day, the highly respected Rothenberg Political Report now ranks the Reichert-Burner race as more competitive than either of those two high profile contests.

In addition to direct financial aid and support, the Red-to-Blue candidates names will be circulated to donors across the nation. Burner will also be paired with a Democratic Member of Congress for “mentoring.”

Mentors, [Rep. Adam] Schiff stressed, are chosen carefully. They essentially enter into contractual agreements, pledging to visit their prot

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Mike Brown gets a heckuva job.

The Burien chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight, and the 4th Wednesday of every month, 7 PM, at Mick Kelly’s Irish Pub, 435 SW 152nd ST. And… I’ll be there!

Yeah, I know… who cares about me? But they actually have some real guests lined up, including State Democratic Chair Dwight Pelz, and State Reps. Shay Schual-Berke (33rd LD) and Joe McDermott (34th LD). I’ve asked Sandeep to show up with a headset and microphone, just to put a fright into Dwight.

And if you’re a little further south, stop by the Tacoma chapter instead, which meets tonight and every Wednesday, 8 PM at Meconi’s Pub, 709 Pacific Ave.

Thank God Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly joined us once again last night, otherwise our panel of Podcasting Liberally regulars would have drowned in our own mediocrity. (Not to mention our beer.)

Joining Joel and me (Goldy) in our weekly, ethanol-fueled punditry was Mollie, Will, Gavin and Carl.Topic’s of discussion included former VA Governor (and possible presidential candidate) Mark Warner, current King County Executive (and possible cabinet appointee) Ron Sims, former insurance industry lobbyist (and future insurance industry lobbyist) Mike McGavick, plus mass transit, gas prices, the Iraq war, global warming and other trivial stuff like that.

The show is 57:09, and is available here as a 35.7 MB MP3. Please visit PodcastingLiberally.com for complete archives and RSS feeds.

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for producing the show.]

Neil Modie’s got the scoop in today’s Seattle P-I on a really major Federal Elections Commission complaint the WA State Dems plan to file against GOP senate candidate “Lobbyist Mike” McGavick.

The Dems allege that the revised compensation package McGavick struck with Safeco on December 6, 2005 — more than a month after he officially declared his candidacy — essentially amounted to an illegal, $17 million contribution to McGavick for “personal use.”

I haven’t had the chance yet to read the complaint, but my understanding is that the facts really aren’t in dispute… this will simply come down to how the FEC (and eventually, the courts) interpret campaign finance law. But should the ruling go against McGavick, the consequences could be huge. The Democrats are seeking “the highest civil penalties available under the law.”

I’ll reserve my comments on the merits of the complaint until after I’ve had the chance to study the relevant code, and perhaps discuss it with some legal experts. But the part of Modie’s article I found most interesting was the GOP’s official response:

“These are baseless accusations,” Julie Sund, McGavick’s campaign spokeswoman, replied Tuesday.

“The Democrats are obviously looking at the same polls we are. The race is getting tight and they’re resorting to early, mean-spirited attacks because the know the incumbent is in trouble and they want to divert attention away from the real issues in the race.”

Uh-huh.

Of course, if you’re going to categorize an FEC complaint as an “early, mean-spirited attack,” then I guess it’s worth pointing out that state GOP beat the Dems to the punch with their frivolous FEC complaint against WA-08 challenger Darcy Burner. Likewise, if it is fair to imply that the Dems’ complaint was prompted by concerns over a tightening race, then the same should certainly be said of the GOP complaint coming in the wake of Burner’s surprising fundraising results and rising profile.

Of course, the difference is, the GOP complaint was not only frivolous, it was trivial, involving a couple hundred dollars worth of volunteer work… whereas the Dems allegations are huge, describing a deliberate attempt to skirt the campaign finance laws by funneling millions of dollars directly into McGavick’s personal bank account.

In the battle of the FEC complaints, I say, score one for the Dems.

UPDATE:
Read the full text of the Dems complaint.

As reported yesterday on Slog, the Rothenberg Political Report, a highly respected and non-partisan political newsletter, upgraded Washington’s 8th Congressional District race between incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert and up-and-coming challenger Darcy Burner from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up/Tilt Republican”… ranking it as one of the 14 most competitive races in the nation.

That’s right, WA-08 is more competitive than high profile CA-50, in which the much ballyhooed Francine Busby is fighting to succeed the recently convicted Duke Cunningham.

Burner had been maligned by Republicans (and ignored by some Democrats) as a “third tier” candidate with little chance of defeating Reichert, but the “Burner Buzz” (not to mention her impressive fundraising performance) has opened eyes in the other Washington. Locally, the GOP echo machine has graduated from snidely dismissing Burner’s candidacy, to ineptly attempting to smear her.

And in what is surely bad news for Republican hopes to retain control of the House, Burner isn’t the only unheralded Democrat displaying unexpected strength:

While Democrats have failed to recruit the top tier candidates that they would like in places such as Arizona 1, Pennsylvania 15, Missouri 6 and Iowa 2, they have broadened the playing field elsewhere and recruited enough credible lower first-tier/upper second-tier hopefuls to win the House if the Democratic wave is big enough in November.

[…]

We believe that the House definitely is “in play,” and the key to whether Republicans can maintain control is whether they can discredit individual Democratic challengers who otherwise would be positioned to win. We are increasing our estimate of likely Democratic gains from 5-8 seats to 7-10 seats (they need to net 15 seats for control), with a bias toward even greater Democratic gains.

Of course, all this horse race analysis means zilch if we don’t all do the hard work necessary to help the Dems take control… and locally, that means helping Burner win in November.

The political pundits now all agree — Burner can win this race — but only with your help. If you haven’t already volunteered or contributed, do it now, for if the Republicans retain absolute control in DC, we’ll have nobody to blame but ourselves.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Please join us for some hoppy ale and hopped up debate.

I don’t know of any special guests who have committed themselves to show up this evening, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw one or more candidates for the open seat in the 43rd LD. (That’s not just an invitation to the candidates… that’s a suggestion.)

For those of you on the other side of the mountains, please join Jimmy at the Tri-Cities chapter of DL, every Tuesday from 5:30 onwards, Tuscany Lounge, 1515 George Washington Way, Richland. Oh… and tomorrow night I plan to drop by the Burien chapter at Mick Kelly’s Irish Pub, 435 SW 152nd ST.

Apparently, there’s nothing “Lobbyist Mike” McGavick won’t do for a little campaign cash. After whoring himself for oil money in Alaska with Sen. Ted Stevens, and less than a week after holding a fundraiser with the most divisive, partisan Vice President in American history, the supposedly independent McGavick spent this past weekend in Nashville turning tricks for Senate Majority Leader Bill Fist Frist.

McGavick was the beneficiary of a fundraiser hosted by Sen. Frist’s VOLPAC, whose inadvertently gay-themed invitation became the source of much amusement in political circles.

It was with some trepidation that we opened a most interesting card, which announced on a blue-jeaned cowboy’s belt buckle something called the “5th Annual VOLPAC ’06 Weekend” in Nashville on April 21-23.

Problem was you had to unbuckle the cowboy’s pants and look inside to see what this was all about. Seemed a bit too “Brokeback Mountain.”

Imagine our relief to find only that we were “cordially invited” to the event honoring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and “Mrs. Bill Frist, M.D.”….

The back of the card shows the cowboy from behind with a red flowered handkerchief sticking out of his right pocket. Wait a minute — wasn’t there something about how this used to be some kind of code in the gay community years ago? A way to signal each other in crowded, noisy bars?

Um… yeah. Apparently, a red handkerchief indicates a penchant for “fisting,” and the right pocket signals the wearer is receptive to being the, uh… fistee.

A fitting metaphor for McGavick, who seems more than willing to bend over (forwards) for any member of the Republican establishment looking to drive home President Bush’s failed policies.

Rep. Dave Reichert goes out of his way to portray himself as a moderate, but a new, DCCC web-ad exposes his extremist views on stem cell research.

During the 2004 race, Reichert told FOXNews.com that he is “generally against embryonic stem cell research,” and he held to his position in 2005 by voting against final passage of HR 810, a bill loosening restrictions on federal funding for such promising research.

I haven’t seen any polling, but I’m guessing that puts him pretty far out of step with his district.

When it comes to FEC filings, the US Senate is so twentieth century.