HorsesAss.Org

Over at the Seattle Weekly (yeah, the Weekly,) Aimee Curl has been digging through recent PDC filings, and they don’t look so good for state House Republicans. Sixteen months before the next election, the House Dems’ official campaign committee already has over $450,000 in the bank, compared to the Republicans’ measly $40,621. Wow.

The organizing committees are the party machines that give campaign funds directly to candidates. “It’s amazing how big the disparity has become,” marvels former state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance. […] Vance credits this year’s Democrat cash explosion in part to House Speaker Frank Chopp’s machine. “In terms of Olympia that’s the shadow that looms over everything,” he says, adding that Republican challengers are as good as on their own in 2008.

“The financial advantage is so massive it will put the Republicans completely on the defensive,” Vance says. “The Democrats can force the Republicans to have to worry about their incumbents. Now you have to take whatever money you’ve got and defend them and you’ve got no other money to help challengers.”

Progressives like me sometimes question Chopp’s willingness to use his near-super majority, but we have no qualms about his ability to build and maintain it. Folks smarter than me about these things tell me that House and Senate Dems have stretched the limits of attainable majorities given current electoral realities, but I wouldn’t expect a GOP comeback in 2008.

Still, I’m not entirely comfortable with Chopp’s incrementalist approach, and can’t help but wonder if he took away the wrong lesson from the Republican landslide of 1994. Conventional wisdom asserts that voters punished state Dems for overreaching during the previous session, and it is hard to argue that this didn’t play some role, at least in the rhetoric of the 1994 campaign season. But I think that the important lesson to learn from the “Republican Revolution” of 1994 — and the Big Blue Wave of 2006 — is that electoral politics can shift dramatically, seemingly overnight, and sometimes for reasons apparently beyond your control.

If Chopp thinks Dems can sustain a working majority indefinitely, he’s deluding himself. And even if he does maintain control of the House, that’s no guarantee that the Senate or the Governor’s mansion won’t suddenly fall into GOP hands. Sure, there’s no compelling reason to toss out Gov. Gregoire in 2008, but in this notoriously fickle and ticket-splitting state, voters don’t need one. The Dems are always just one bad campaign away from finding themselves mired in gridlock… or worse.

I suppose one can imagine a rosier political scenario than the one currently facing state Dems. But one would be foolish to expect it.

My building has a parking strip that is reserved for tenants and the businesses in the building. It’s only a handful of spots, maybe ten or so. At night on the weekends, club goers sometimes see an empty spot and decide to park. Maybe they get lucky and the spot’s owner is out of town. But other times, a tow truck has to be called to remove the vehicle.

While it’s nice to see vehicles removed, I’ve never had the chance to actually see the look on someone’s face when they realize their car has been towed.

Today, I got that chance. And it was awesome. After a night of partying, it’s got to suck big time to come out of the club to find your car gone. But, fuck ’em if they can’t read the signs.

This week the Seattle Times finally acknowledged that Rep. Dave Reichert is conservative, “maybe too conservative for his district,” and that was brought home again yesterday when Reichert voted for a Republican-backed amendment that would have cut off Title X funds for Planned Parenthood. The amendment was defeated 231 to 189.

“Congressman Reichert was one of 189 House members voting for this mean-spirited amendment,” said Karen Cooper, executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Washington. “The Title X program provides birth control to low-income Americans and Planned Parenthood clinics play a key role in actually delivering those services,” Cooper said. “There are already a number of restrictive policies in place that ban any federal money from being used to pay for abortion care, and the notion that law makers would also try to deny low-income people birth control is very troubling,” she added.

“Millions of Americans rely on Planned Parenthood clinics for basic health care services every year,” said Cooper. “I find it unconscionable that Reichert and his anti-choice cronies in Congress tried to single out an organization that provides cancer screening, breast exams, and birth control and target them for a ban on family planning funding just because some Planned Parenthood clinics also provide abortion care,” she said.

“Reichert’s vote in favor of the Pence amendment was just another reminder of how truly out-of-step he is with the pro-choice voters of the 8th Congressional District,” Cooper said. “It is clearly time for a change,” she concluded.

I’ve been told that polling conducted in the wake of the 2006 election showed that a substantial proportion of pro-choice 8th District voters were not aware of Reichert’s staunch anti-choice/anti-birth control stance on reproductive issues. I’m guessing voters might be better informed next time around.

Shaun from Upper Left:

Recipients of contributions from military personnel and veterans:

Ron Paul 26.23%

Barack Obama 24.02%

John McCain 18.31%

Hillary Clinton 11.08%

Bill Richardson 5.59%

Mitt Romney 4.05%

John Edwards 2.63%

Rudy Giuliani 2.44%

Mike Huckabee 1.84%

Tom Tancredo 1.63%

Duncan Hunter 1.05%

So, of the top five campaigns receiving contributions from military folks, four of them are anti-war? I’m not too surprised. The GOP is in the process of ruining the military in Iraq, so why wouldn’t people in uniform get active in politics?

You can’t smoke in-flight, but the Transportation Security Administration has decided to lift its two-year ban on carrying cigarette lighters on airplanes.

“Taking lighters away is security theater,” [TSA assistant secretary Kip] Hawley said. “It trivializes the security process.”

And yet I still can’t carry on a fucking bottle of water!

I understand why restaurant operators might object to King County’s new labeling rules as a bit too onerous. As a consumer, I look forward to having the nutritional information, but as a restaurateur I’m sure I would chafe at the expense in time and money. Still, I found at least one of the arguments against these new regulations to be less than convincing.

Chris Clifford, a Renton resident who said he’s owned several restaurants in King County, said very few customers need labeling to know that a 16-ounce steak rolled in butter is fattening.

“I have a six-letter word to describe them: It’s ‘stupid!’ ” Clifford told the board. “You can’t help stupid people.” Instead of menu labeling, Clifford suggested a “warning label” on the restaurant door: “Eating here is fattening and could kill you.”

Yeah… I want to eat at the restaurant where they think I’m stupid. Anybody know what restaurants Clifford owns, so that I can be sure to avoid them? Or perhaps the council should have taken him up on his suggestion and mandated a warning label on Clifford’s doors.

Little debating tip here Chris: if you’re gonna argue against health regulations, perhaps you shouldn’t display such utter contempt for the health and wellbeing of your customers.

My first ride on my new (to me) bike was short and interesting:

Riding in traffic is hard. It’s tough to get used to cars whizzing by while I’m trying to avoid a panic attack.

Bike shorts might be a good investment. I went only about 2 miles, but my taint is killing me.

Shifting. It’s not as easy as I thought it would be.

I’m going for it again this weekend, so wish me luck.

Wow. Apparently, I live in a $1.5 million home. So how does a semi-impoverished blogger like me afford a mansion like that? Well it all depends on how you The Seattle Times does the math.

Zillow.com “zestimates™” that the modest, South Seattle home I purchased ten years ago for $187K would now set you back a cool half-million bucks, but according to the math wizards at the Times, that number is completely meaningless. No, rather than using present day dollars to calculate the cost of my house — you know, the actual purchase price — the Times insists on valuing my home in terms of “year of expenditure” dollars, ie the principal borrowed plus every penny of interest over the course of the loan.

At least, that’s how the Times insists on calculating the cost of the light rail portion of the Roads and Transit package headed to the ballot this November. Rather than simply reporting the $10.8 billion price of the rail proposal, they insist on presenting a $30 billion price tag after 40 years of interest and inflation is worked in. Likewise, a half-million dollar mortgage at 7-percent would total about $1.5 million in principal and interest over the course of a 40-year loan. See how that works?

But of course, I don’t live in a $1.5 million house. I live in a half-million dollar house. That’s about what it would fetch on the open market, and that’s about what it would cost me to replace it with a comparable house in the same neighborhood. To claim my house is worth three times that price would be just plain silly. And misleading.

The same holds true of light rail.

According to an editorial in today’s Seattle Times…

Reichert is a conservative — maybe too conservative for his district.

Reichert a conservative? Who knew?

There are so many things I’m itching to write about, but a quote the other day from Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Sheriff’s Department) keeps sticking in my craw. The Seattle Times’ David Postman asked Reichert about his unwavering support for the president’s strategy in Iraq, and the congressman’s choice of words was telling.

Reichert still firmly supports President Bush. The congressman is a former sheriff. When he talks about the war he frequently relates it to police work.

Of course, Reichert always relates everything to his police work. I’m told a waiter once asked him if he needed a few more minutes to decide, and he snapped back something about “looking Gary Ridgeway straight in the eyes.” (Did I mention Reichert is a former sheriff?) But I digress…

And in this case he sees parallels between the criticism aimed at Bush and his most famous case, the hunt for the Green River Killer.

“During Green River we were just hammered on by the press and the community and I got hammered by people and criticized and I just feel some of the same pressures are being applied to the president.”

So, um, what the congressman is really telling us about the war in Iraq is that President Bush is the real victim here? … Just like Reichert was during the 18 years of the Green River Killer investigation?

How incredibly narcissistic. Dozens of young women were brutally strangled by Gary Ridgeway — some, years after Reichert personally dismissed Ridgeway as a suspect, early in the investigation — but ultimately it was Reichert who was the victim, hammered and criticized by an unfeeling press and an impatient community. How did he ever survive the pressure?

Likewise, it is not the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis or the 3,600 slain American troops and their families who are the victims of the president’s military misadventures… but Bush himself.

I have repeatedly ridiculed the Times for praising Reichert’s “conscience-driven independent streak,” when in fact he has displayed little independence at all. Now I’m not so sure he even has a conscience.

Hypocrisy isn’t just for elected Republicans. It’s an important “family value” for the whole cult!

Read Mr. Blumenthal’s post here.

So, imagine you’re a member of a Democratic legislative district, and you’re being asked to endorse a candidate. Dollars to donuts the candidates doing the asking are Democrats, right? Well, if you’re attending the 48th LD endorsement meeting tonight (7PM, Stevenson Elementary School Library, 14220 NE 8th St in Bellevue,) you may be in for a bit of a surprise.

Word has it that incumbent Bellevue City Councilman Phil Noble will be there tonight, asking for the 48th LD endorsement, and backed by at least one prominent local Democratic legislator. But while the council race is technically nonpartisan, Noble’s PDC reports show that he most definitely is not. Indeed, judging by the contributions Noble has both given and received, he’s about as Republican as they come.

Over the past few years Noble has contributed to a rogues gallery of Republican notables, including David Irons Jr., Luke Esser, Jane Hague, Reagan Dunn, Kathy Lambert, Jim Horn and Rodney Tom. In fact, I only recognize one Democratic name on the entire list: 48th LD Rep. Ross Hunter.

And Noble’s list of contributors over the years is equally Republican in pedigree, including Skip Rowley, Bellevue Square Associates (ie Kemper Freeman Jr.), Charles Conner, Washington Assoc. of Realtors, Bennett Homes, Realtors PAC, Rental Housing Assoc., Affordable Housing Council, Luke Esser and Diane Tebelius. It’s like the invitee list to a BIAW cocktail party.

On the other hand, Noble’s challenger, Bellevue small business owner Keri Andrews, is 100-percent Democratic — and 100-percent progressive — sporting endorsements from Progressive Majority, Sierra Club, Washington Conservation Voters, Bellevue Firefighters, WA State Women’s Political Caucus, Darcy Burner, state Senators Eric Oemig and Brian Weinstein, 41st LD Dems and more.

We all know a Democrat when we see one, and Phil Noble ain’t it. I can’t imagine the 48th LD Dems giving him the nod, whatever the political arm-twisting.

UPDATE:
They’re website doesn’t say so, but apparently tonight’s endorsement meeting is a potluck affair at 11522 NE 21st ST (NW corner of 116AVE NE & NE 21st ST.) Potluck starts at 6:15, candidates scheduled to start talking at 7:15. If you’re resident of the 48th, and a real Democrat, please stop by and support the real Democratic candidate.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Phil Noble spoke at the meeting tonight, and asked the Dems not to endorse in a nonpartisan race, as it would be wrong to insert partisanship into the city council. Keri Andrews was unanimously endorsed.

On Larry King last night, Larry Flynt said he has a whole list of people in D.C. who have been up to no good (a la Senator Vitter). In particular, he was shocked at seeing one Senator on his list.

Wild-ass speculation…Go!

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman is investigating whether or not the travel done by the Drug Czar in 2006 was politically motivated. Throughout 2006, Drug Czar John Walters’ travel schedule was a roster of the some of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress.

In an email passing along thanks from Karl Rove for these visits, the Office of National Drug Control Policy’s (ONDCP) White House liaison Douglas Simon wrote:

Folks,

I just wanted to give you all a summary of a post November 7th update I received the other night. Presidential personnel pulled together a meeting of all of the Administration’s White House Liaison’s and the WH Political Affairs office. Karl Rove opened the meeting with a thank you for all of the work that went into the surrogate appearances by Cabinet members and for the 72 Hour deployment. He specifically thanked, for going above and beyond the call of duty, the Dept. of Commerce, Transportation, Agriculture, AND the WH Drug Policy Office.

This recognition is not something we hear everyday and we should feel confident that our hard work is noticed. All of this is due to our efforts preparing the Director and the Deputies for their trips and events. Director Walters and the Deputies covered thousands of miles to attend numerous official events all across the country. The Director and the Deputies deserve the most recognition because they actually had to give up time with their families for the god awful places we sent them. I attached the flnal list of all of the official events that the Director and Deputies attended.

One of those “god awful places” they sent Drug Czar Walters to was Kent, where he met with Dave Reichert in March of 2006. Granted, they talked about meth, which is certainly a valid concern to people in “god awful places” like Kent. But I’d imagine there’s more of a concern that their federal tax dollars were being spent on the Drug Czar being a Republican campaign prop for all of 2006 as well.

[emphasis mine in the email]