HorsesAss.Org

In recent weeks, Eric Earling has been making the case that Barack Obama has a problem winning votes among “white, hard-working” Americans. Around the time of the Pennsylvania primaries, I and a few others tried to explain to him in the comments that he was mistakenly extrapolating a local trend in a way that doesn’t translate across the entire country. Having lived in several regions of this country (and having grown up mostly in Pennsylvania), I’m rather familiar with the fact that rural Pennsylvania is very, very different from rural Texas or rural Wisconsin or rural Idaho. But now that this erroneous belief has been finding its way into Hillary Clinton’s talking points, some more people are starting to dig into its inaccuracy.

Daily Kos diarist DHinMI posted up on Monday with a series of charts showing the counties where Obama or Clinton won 65% of the vote. The top map is where Obama won 65% of the vote and the bottom map is where Clinton won 65% of the vote:

These maps show that despite Earling’s claim that Obama’s support is coming solely from urban areas, he’s winning overwhelmingly among Democrats in some very rural, very white parts of the country. Obama’s problem, which is stunningly illustrated by the second map above, is with Appalachia, a part of the country with its own unique culture and political history. Josh Marshall discusses it here, and Jonathan Tilove adds to the analysis here, reinforcing my belief that Jim Webb would be an awesome VP choice for Obama.

Going back to the overall point, Greg Sargent looks into the recent Quinnipiac poll to show that the notion that Hillary does better against McCain among working class white voters (those without a college degree) is pure fiction. Hillary and Obama each have their weaknesses among certain subsets of white America, but despite that, both of them are polling ahead of McCain in a head-to-head matchup (and those polls aren’t even factoring in Bob Barr, who’s able to get airtime on the Fox Business Channel). Considering this nation’s past when it comes to racism, it’s easy to get nervous about the prospects of the first African-American candidate to win a major party nomination, but the facts just don’t back up the notion that rural, or even less educated white voters won’t vote for Obama.

Was yesterday’s election a “game changer?” (No…not that one…the one in Mississippi-1, won by Childers.) And what are the implications for Dave Reichert and Doc Hastings? So…let’s say you attend a $33,100 per plate fundraiser. What kind of meal would you expect, and how should it be served? Goldy offers some disturbing possibilities. In any case, is John McCain violating the letter, or just the spirit, of the McCain—Feingold law? Who is to blame for Central Washington losing its nuclear waste to Idaho? Goldy and friends ask the tough questions so that you don’t have to…put down your beer to ask ‘em yourself.

Goldy was joined in political merriment by McCranium’s Jim McCabe, Executive Director of the Northwest Progressive Institute Andrew Villeneuve, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, and EFFin’ Unsound’s Carl Ballard (in the role of Goldy’s Ed McMahon).

The show is 47:08, and is available here as an MP3.

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_may_13_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]

At a rally in Michigan this afternoon, Barack Obama surprised the crowd by introducing John Edwards, who proceeded to endorse Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Michigan Messenger was there live blogging, and has an unedited transcript online.

Again, as demonstrated by NARAL earlier today, the Democratic Party and its constituent organizations are rallying together around Obama.  This thing is over.

NARAL/Pro-Choice America surprised its members today by endorsing Barack Obama, prompting more than little angry chatter from rank and file members who support Hillary Clinton, or at the very least thought she deserved better in return for her longtime support.  For its part the Washington chapter remained both diplomatic and neutral:

“We have had the pleasure of having two strongly pro-choice presidential candidates in Senators Obama and Clinton,” said Karen Cooper, executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Washington.  “Both have been advocates for the right to choose.  As a state affiliate, NARAL Pro-Choice Washington is remaining neutral at this time,” Cooper added.

In announcing the endorsement, NARAL national president Nancy Keenan explained:

NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC is making our endorsement now because every day that passes, Sen. McCain gets a free ride on the issue of choice. That free ride ends today.

There has been much talk about uncommitted superdelegates moving toward Obama in order to close the nomination process as quickly as possible, and it looks like national organizations like NARAL are adopting the same strategy.  It’s not a knock against Clinton, it’s just an acknowledgment of the political reality.

Blogging Georgetown continues its expose of the King County Conservation Board, the kinda-sorta elected body that’s supposed to “promote the sustainable use of natural resources through responsible stewardship,” but in fact has been hijacked by the pro-builder BIAW crowd.

Last month, I posted details about the ultra-right “property rights” stealth candidate activists that had taken over the majority of the board of the King County Conservation District… As it turns out, the KCD did hire an E.D., a certain Jeffrey Possinger, attorney, former Duval mayor and city council member, and candidate for the 45th District. Oh, and of the GOP, endorsed by the “Citizen Taxpayers Association” the group behind I-933….

And from the Seattle Times on Possinger’s run for the Legislature:

Possinger supports opening more road-maintenance contracts to competition from private enterprise to reduce costs, and he wants to reduce the number of transportation agencies and environmental regulations.

Yeah, that’s right, a guy who runs on eliminating environmental regulations is now the Executive Director of a “Conservation District.”

It is time to either eliminate the KCCD, or elect its members via a proper ballot at a general election the way we do every other elected body.

Following their devastating loss in MS-01, House Republicans introduced their new slogan today, “The Change You Deserve.” Unfortunately for them, what they didn’t realize, “because they are idiots,” is that this is also a registered trademark of Effexor XR, a commonly prescribed anti-depressant.

Effexor, also known as Venlafaxine, is approved for the treatment “of depression, generalized anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, and panic disorder in adults.” Its common side effects are very much in keeping with the world the House Republicans have striven to build: nausea, apathy, constipation, fatigue, vertigo, sexual dysfunction, sweating, memory loss, and – and I swear I am not making this up – “electric shock-like sensations also called ‘brain zaps.'”

Or maybe they’re not idiots, and the irony was intended. In which case the GOP might as well just run on the more straightforward slogan: “Depression hurts. Prozac can help.”

I just received an email notifying me that HorsesAss.org has been chosen as the credentialed blog to represent Washington in the State Blogger Corps at the Democratic National Convention in August. From the DNC press release:

“Similar to the record-breaking voter turnout our Party has seen during the primary season, the demand for these coveted blogger positions is yet another indicator of the tremendous interest in this historic Convention,” said Governor Dean. “The Internet has played a critical role in connecting Americans to elected officials and candidates seeking office. The DemConvention State Blogger Corps will continue to foster this dialogue – in all 50 of our states and our territories too – as we head towards this year’s historic election and elect a Democrat to the White House.”

[…] As part of the new DemConvention State Blogger Corps, designed for bloggers covering state and local politics, bloggers will receive unparalleled access to state delegations and the floor of the Convention hall. In a truly unprecedented move, the DNCC will seat these bloggers with their respective delegations during the historic four-day event, providing even greater access for local coverage and perspective. Highlights from these blogs will also be featured on www.DemConvention.com in the lead up to and during the Convention.

HA intends to provide ground level coverage of the official proceedings and the parties and gatherings that go on behind the scenes. To this end my HA co-bloggers Geov Parrish and Darryl Holman plan to join me in Denver for what promises to be the most exciting Democratic National Convention since 1968 (though hopefully, for different reasons.)

The DNCC State Blogger Corps:
[Read more…]

Note to Republicans: be afraid. Be very afraid.

When Democrats won a special election in March for former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat, an R+6 district the GOP had held for three decades, it was cause for a celebratory fuck you to Republicans who only four years ago taunted D’s with talk of a “permanent majority.” Last week, when the Dems picked up yet another blood-red seat, this time an R+8 Louisiana district the GOP had owned since 1974, Beltway Republicans appeared to turn on each other. But after last night’s Democratic pickup in Mississippi, it looks like the House Republican Caucus may be headed into every man for himself mode.

MS-01, where Democrat Travis Childers just beat Republican Greg Davis 52% to 48%, is an R+10 district that President Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004, and the former incumbent won with 66% just a year and a half ago. And that’s after the cash-strapped NRCC sunk $1.3 million into the race on top of another million from Freedom Watch and the candidate himself.

The tried and true GOP tactics of race-baiting and fear-mongering just don’t seem to be working this cycle. The R’s saturated the media with the ads tying Childers to Barack Obama and Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and yet the Democrat only increased his support since the previous round of voting a few weeks back. Running on a “get out of Iraq” message in a traditionally pro-military Deep South district, Childers earned a comfortable win over a credible and well-funded opponent.

This is what happens when a bitter electorate turns out in record numbers to say enough is enough. If Dems can win in an R+10 district they can win anywhere, a sentiment loudly expressed this morning in The Hill:

The sky is falling on House Republicans and there is no sign of it letting up.

The GOP loss in Mississippi’s special election Tuesday is the strongest sign yet that the Republican Party is in shambles. And while some Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel, that light more likely represents the Democratic train that is primed to mow down more Republicans in November.

Be afraid, my Republican friends. Be very afraid.

UPDATE [LEE]: I thought I’d link to this quote from Paul Begala in 2006 about Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy since it’s appropriate:

“Yes, he’s in trouble, in that campaign managers, candidates, are really angry with him. He has raised $74 million and spent $64 million. He says it’s a long-term strategy. But what he has spent it on, apparently, is just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose. That’s not how you build a party. You win elections. That’s how you build a party.”

Last month, George Bush showed that he can reach for newer and greater heights when he broke the Gallup poll record for highest disapproval ever recorded for a president over the last 70 years.

The records keep rolling in…but, this month, Bush is an equal opportunity record-breaker. He has reached a new high and sunk to new lows for May:

The month started out with a new high (my emphasis throughout):

A new poll suggests that George W. Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Thursday indicates that 71 percent of the American public disapprove of how Bush his handling his job as president.

“No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president’s disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

“Bush’s approval rating, which stands at 28 percent in our new poll, remains better than the all-time lows set by Harry Truman and Richard Nixon (22 percent and 24 percent, respectively) but even those two presidents never got a disapproval rating in the 70s,” Holland added. “The previous all-time record in CNN or Gallup polling was set by Truman, 66 percent disapproval in January 1952.”

Bush shows that he has also mastered the lows on Sunday when Rassmussen Reports gave their weekly and monthly approval/disapproval summaries:

For the week ending May 9, just 32% of Americans approved of the way the George W. Bush performed his role as President. That’s down two percentage points from last week and the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. The decline in the President’s ratings come as the Rasmussen Consumer Index also hovers around record lows—72% of Americans believe that economic conditions are getting worse.

Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove of the President’s Performance, up two points from a week ago.
[…]

The weekly figures also represents a two-point decline from the numbers recorded during the full month of April. During that month, 34% of Americans gave the President their approval. That too was an all-time low, the lowest full-month approval rating ever for the President measured by Rasmussen Reports.
[…]

Prior to this month, the President’s lowest approval rating was 35%, recorded in June, 2007. In two other months, his approval has been as low as 36% (May 2007 and March 2008).

And just yesterday, a new low from a new ABC/Washington Post poll:

Public disgruntlement neared a record high and George W. Bush slipped to his career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country’s seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the past year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And just 31 percent approve of Bush’s job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove.

The country’s mood – and the president’s ratings – are suffering from the double whammy of an unpopular war and a faltering economy. Consistently for the past year, nearly two-thirds of Americans have said the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. And consumer confidence is near its lowest in weekly ABC News polls since late 1985.

Bush’s approval rating has been extraordinarily stable – before today’s 31 percent it had
been 32 or 33 percent in nine ABC/Post polls from last July through last month.

Whew…and that is just the last couple of weeks!

As this election season geared up, we heard a lot of wishful thinking on the part of Righties suggesting that 2006 was the one and only opportunity for Democrats to make significant gains. In part the rationale seemed to be that candidates wouldn’t have a Bush administration to drag ’em down. Maybe…but there has been an avalanche of bad omens for Republicans lately: Bush’s new records, congressional special elections going Democratic in previously strong Republican districts, record high Democratic identity, and unprecedented fundraising asymmetries in favor of the Democrats.

Isn’t it time to reevaluate these Republican loyalists? I mean, when does the pattern of self-deception and delusions qualify as psychopathology?

Sen. Russ Feingold’s Progressive Patriot Fund is holding an online poll to pick their next Progressive Patriot, with $5,000 going to the winner. Darcy Burner is currently running in third place, but there’s still time to push her into the lead. So vote for Darcy today!

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We meet at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E, although some of us will show up a little early for dinner.

Tonight’s activity…perhaps a round of pin the flag on a donkey. Other than that, we will be focused on a most important election, which also gives us our theme song of the night: Black Water by the Doobie Brothers.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally . Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

I heard a report on KUOW that said that John McCain was in town today to talk about the environment, when in fact, he’s really only here for a $33,100 per plate dinner. You really think he’d come to WA — a state he can’t possibly win — for any reason other than money?

Of course, one of the many reasons McCain can’t win WA is the tanker contract he cost us, and the 9,000 plus local jobs that would have come with it. In a post on Daily Kos today, Gov. Chris Gregoire points out:

To help our national economy, the Bush Administration sends us $600 “economic stimulus” checks. I have no doubt that many need this money. It will buy a month’s worth of groceries and pay for the rising cost of gasoline.

But the Bush Administration sent $40 billion of economic stimulus to Europe. And I have no doubt that $40 billion and 44,000 new good-paying jobs would feed entire communities and repair lives broken by debt and the loss of homes.

Unfortunately, that $40 billion stimulus package is creating jobs and feeding communities in France. Hey, thanks Sen. McCain.

Um… but I thought markets always make the most efficient allocation of resources? Damn commie agitators.

(By the way, I hope you are all taking advantage of the Real News Network feed I’ve provided in the front page sidebar. It’s a great service worthy of your attention and support.)

From today’s Seattle Times:

After years of talk, Port of Seattle and King County executives signed a final agreement Monday to put a 42-mile Eastside rail corridor into public ownership.

The deal paves the way for a possible combination of freight rail, commuter trains, and biking and hiking trails, but many details remain to be worked out.

And that’s the way it should be. The important thing here was having this rare remaining corridor acquired for public use, rather than being sold off a parcel at a time and lost forever. Deciding what we’re going to do with the corridor—rail or trail or both—was always less urgent than closing a deal with BNSF.

And by the way, while Ron Sims caught a lot of shit from Eastside rail enthusiasts for his intention to tear up the tracks and replace them with a hiking and biking trail, and from nearly everyone for his complicated proposal to swap Boeing Field with the Port in exchange for the rail corridor, it should be remembered that it was his initiative and vision that set this whole thing into motion in the first place. Without Sims’ leadership on this issue there may have never been a serious public effort to acquire this land.

We have this strange political pathology in Washington state in which we constantly complain about the lack of leadership coming from our elected officials, and yet instantly attack them as arrogant the minute they attempt to display any.  Sims’ initial proposal may have been shot down, and with good reasons, but he still deserves much of the credit for preserving this corridor for public use.

As for the rail vs trail debate, I’d love to see an Eastside commuter line, but from what I know about the geography and demographics of this corridor, as well as the condition of the existing tracks, I wouldn’t expect it to happen anytime soon. But I’d love to be proven wrong.

No, the real solution to our transportation problems is to build more roads.