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Did you catch the big debate last night? I did. It made me glad that I already voted for Marko Liias. Oh, was there another debate?

Seriously, the Lieutenant Governor debate last night was gloriously dull. It wasn’t too much of a contrast between the bearded monotone Democrats. Heck tried to talk about being an outsider (DC and the private sector) while also touting his time in the legislature and as Booth Gardner’s Chief of Staff. Liias was more focused on his legislative record. Either would be good in the job.

The moderators were less impressive. Maybe there aren’t an hour of questions for the position. Still the first 2 questions were about Republican voters and how will you work with Republicans in the legislature. There was no equivalent question about Democratic voters, despite the fact that we are a lot more of the state.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes	Mean of 177 electoral votes

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

I hope that the new approach to homeless outreach in Seattle, if it comes to anything, is an improvement. I wish there was more of a solid direction from the mayor’s office. But maybe the relationship is so toxic that it’s better to have surrogates.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Great job, King County. We’re smashing all sorts of records for early voting. I don’t know if this presages higher turnout or if it will taper off. Maybe people are worried about the Post Office so they’re dropping their ballots in the boxes rather than the mail?

No matter what, please seal your ballot with a sponge and wash your hands.

Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies

Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• The Daily Show: Why you should help save democracy by working the polls
• Lauren Mayer: Suburban women
• SNL: VP fly debate
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard explains that his Town Hall crushed Joe Biden’s Town Hall
• Meidas Touch: Don’t gamble on Трамп
• The Daily Show: Who will get the Blackwote: Трамп or Biden?
• Founders Sing: Karma goes round in circles:

• Parody Project: The Spooky Mens Chorale—Vote the bastards out
• Trevor: The Dotard obsesses over Hunter Biden and a looney-tune Bin Laden conspiracy
• Our Cartoon President: First post-COVID rally
• Roll Call: 2020 Projection—Biden and Democrats poised to win big
• Meidas Touch: The Quaranteenies—Game
• Songify The News: The cancelled debate, but we un-cancelled it
• Bill Maher: Dueling grandpas
• Comedy Central: What voting is like in a nudist colony
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп & Biden’s dueling town halls
• Lauren Mayer: Landslide:

• College Humor: Why I’m voting for opposite man
• Keith Olbermann: Trump admits he’s losing; “Unmask-gate” fizzles
• Trevor: Anita Hill on why she chose to endorse Joe Biden
• Meidas Touch: Believe in America

SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.

Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.

Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday

The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:

• Bruce W. Nelson: A Russian message to Трамп
• Keith Olbermann: GOP Senator Sasse gives a huge “fuck you” to The Dotard
• Meidas Touch: Трамп the grave dancer
• WaPo: The Dotard pushed phony ‘unmasking’ conspiracy theory for years
• Don Winslow Films: #MemoToTrump
• Now This: How government agencies are failing under Трамп
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s voter fraud, sexy superspreading & Biden-bashing
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп dance
• Demi Lovato: Commander in Chief:

• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpAttacksBlackWomen
• Keith Olbermann: Mitt Romney is an enabler of Трамп’s terrorism
• Really American: Трамп projection
• Meidas Touch: Bye Tiffany
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hating can be fine
• Americans for Decency: Save America—Radical right terror must go
• The Daily Show: The Трамп administration’s first term corruption
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп! Get Fauci’s face off your SCUMBAG TV ADS

Vox: How the next president could change policing.

The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate

Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.

TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:

• SNL Weekend Update: Dr. Wenowdis on Трамп’s televised health exam
• Meidas Touch: “Don’t Worry” | #AmericaNeedsHealthcare
• Bruce W. Nelson: Don’t let COVID dominate your life
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump is only MENTALLY ill now
• Really American: Blame Трамп
• John Di Domenico: Трамп ranting press conference becomes hallucination musical with the governors demanding more PPE!:

• Larry Wilmore: Трамп is a virus and disinformation superspreader. Will America finally drop him over it?
• Francesca Fiorentini: Should the U.S. invade…itself?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Droplets of love in the air at Трамп’s return rally
• Bill Maher: Fareed Zakaria on ten lessons for the post-pandemic world
• Trevor: Why Трамп is threatening to kiss you
• SNL: Enough is enough!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп kills—The travel ban hoax
• Trevor: Did Трамп’s rich friends get a heads-up about coronavirus?
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп owned stock in regeneron
• Roy Zimmerman and Molly Bauckham: Feed the birds (Трамп Pence and MAGA):

• Songbird: Pursuing a vaccination
• Jimmy Kimmel: Senator Elizabeth Warren on Trump’s COVID Failure,
• WaPo: Superspreader events explained
• Trevor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on New York’s pandemic response in hindsight
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп leaves the hospital

The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.

Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman

SCOTUS Tragedy:

• The Daily Show: Трамп’s first term SCOTUS appointments
• Mark Fiore: Conservative court relief
• Now This: Amy Coney Barrett dodges questions
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Nut pick
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to day one of the Amy Coney Barrett hearings
• Founders Sing: ROE, ROE, ROE V. WADE—RBG reappears to confront Amy about her true intentions!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Tim Eyman’s latest garbage car tabs initiative is unconstitutional. At this point he must know not to do a multiple issues initiative. Like have a lawyer look it over. Or don’t, since Eyman gets to keep fundraising on the same initiative and agencies get to keep their car tab money.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

King County is mailing ballots today. So you should get yours within a few days. Same give or take for the rest of the state. So if you don’t have a ballot by next week, you can bug your country official. In King County, you can drop it at one of these boxes. Or mail them.

Anyway, use a sponge instead of linking your envelope. And wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Songify the News (with Blondie): One heartbeat away – Kamala vs. Pence
• Americans for Decency: Kamala the MAGA slayer (& friends)
• The Daily Show: Mail-in voting dos and don’ts
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп refuses to do a virtual debate with Joe Biden!!!
• Our Cartoon President: COVID-positive Cartoon Трамп watches the VP debate
• Roy Zimmerman and Laura Love: My vote, my voice, my right:

• Seth Meyers: Hey! Kamala Harris and Mike Pence’s 2020 VP debate
• Robert Riech: Four key takeaways from the Harris-Pence VP debate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jaime Harrison on Lindsey Graham’s hypocrisy & helping the community
• Meidas Touch: Трамп devastation
• Stephen: Washington, confused about voting in the 2020 election? “Better know a ballot” is here to help!
• SNL: Presidential debate
• The Late Show: Taylor Swift backs Joe Biden in her new single
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence prepares for his debate against Sen. Kamala Harris
• The Daily Show: Scowls, smirks, eye rolls
• Randy Rainbow with Patti LuPone: If the Dotard got fired:

• John Oliver: Election 2020
• Trevor: Трамп refuses a virtual debate
• Now This: Fact-checking the 2020 Vice Presidential debate
• Seth Meyers: Трамп has election meltdown as White House covers up COVID-19 outbreak
• Larry Wilmore: What the fuck, undecided voters?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Pence Harris VP Debate
• Jonathan Mann: Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking
• Really American: Man of the moment
• Roy Wood, Jr: Are harsher vote-by-mail laws really just voter suppression?
• The Foundation Singers: The fly song:

• Lauren Mayer: Has Mike Pence ever let a woman finish?
• Trevor: Pence’s fly and Harris’s expressions steal the debate
• Meidas Touch: I’m speaking
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence discusses his new friend, debate fly
• Seth Meyers: Late night’s October surprise predictions

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

• Stephen: Like flies on what?
• Americans for Decency: Donald and miracles
• Robert Reich: How you can stop America’s slide toward tyranny
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks the Nobel Peace Prize
• Amber Ruffin: I’ve got $20 more tThan the President:

• Americans for Decency: Donald and smoke—Coronavirus, wildfires, and protests
• The Daily Show: Won’t you help an American President in need?
• Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Pence’s debate performance, “He’s pretty comfortable telling a total lie”
• Bruce W. Nelson: No one tells me what to do
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s holy grail just disappeared
• Robert Reich: Empathy for the world’s least empathetic person?
• The Daily Show: Melania Трамп Hates Christmas
• The Parody Project: End of the world:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп is not America
• Sarah Cooper: How to drugs
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп furious over plot to kidnap Michigan governor!!
• Americans for Decency: Abuzz with GOP hypocrisy—Flying under the radar with Mike Pence
• Stephen: John Brennan—Трамп’s failure to denounce White supremacist groups has fueled their rise
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s plan to nullify the election

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

• Stephen: Трамп expected to resume hosting indoor mask-free campaign rallies
• Trevor: The Dotard has coronavirus & the White House does damage control
• Bruce W. Nelson: A get well song for The Dotard
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп updates the nation from Walter Reed on his car ride
• Jonathan Mann: Getting COVID to own the libs!
• Americans for Decency: Donald and Delirium—Walter Reed melodrama
• Mark Fiore: Get well soon, Mr. President
• Foundation Singers: I’m so sorry (Трамп apologizes!)
• Meidas Touch: Трамп Virus
• Now This: GOP lawmakers are possibly spreading COVID-19
• Seth Meyers: Трамп leaves hospital, says “Don’t be afraid of COVID”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп announces a cure for COVID
• Jimmy Kimmel: Superspreader Трамп is ready to rally again!
• Stephen’s Zoom interview with Трамп
• The Late Show: Secret Service agent irate over Трамп’s joyride
• James Corden: Maybe I’m Immune’:

• Stephen: Трамп sends stocks tumbling with hostage-style threat to block covid stimulus package negotiations
• Seth Meyers with a corona-monologue
• Jimmy Kimmel: Dotard’s Трампumphant return to COVID infested White House
• The Late Show: Is Трамп tripping on Dexamethasone?
• Trevor: Трамп is home and back to comparing COVID to the flu
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsPatientZero
• Stephen: John Brennan—A reckless President taking covid drugs is a dangerous cocktail for the White House
• The Late Show: Achoober—The ride sharing service for contagious covid patients
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on no COVID relief bill
• Seth Meyers: Трамп stages maskless photo op while still infected with COVID-19
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 4am post hospital press conference on steroids
• Jordan Klepper: Трамп’s COVID rally
• Americans for Decency: Donald and losing—Let us remember
• Keith Olbermann: Worst Person No. 1. The Dotard Трамп—Mass murderer who will kill 150,000 more of us this year
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song of Hope (Hicks)
• Stephen: Трамп says “Don’t let it dominate your life,” returns to the White House still infected with covid
• act.tv: Трамп has a loaded COVID gun
• SNL: Weekend Update
• Trevor: Coronavirus spreads rapidly through the White House
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner covid monologue as he returns to the White House
• Jonathan Mann: Is Tucker Carlson ok?
• Seth Meyers: Bob Woodward says Трамп was confident he would not catch COVID-19
• The Late Show: Трамп’s new roommate, covid-19!
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID is weaponized to kill public schools

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I listened to the gubernatorial debate while doing dishes. Now, a day late, here’s my impressions.

Jay Inslee was a bit off his game on a few issues. Western State Hospital desertification in particular. But he was pretty good overall.

Culp was something else. From flirting with conspiracy theories about the wildfires to saying he would have sent the National Guard with guns to the East Precinct protest, Culp was scary. Please don’t vote for him.

And please do wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 366 electoral votes	Mean of 172 electoral votes

For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.

Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.

Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.

Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.

North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:

Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:

Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]

Are you ready for debates tonight? Well tough shit, we’re going to have Vice Presidential and gubernatorial debates. I already know who I am voting for, but I will probably tune in. Will Culp manage to sell himself in any way, or if he comes across as awful as his policies.

But before the debates, in fact right now, you should go wash your hands.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.

This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.

Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.

Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

It’s not medieval or early modern Europe. You can notice that the leader is sick. And that it’s still possibly deadly. Nobody wants the President to die,but jeez, he might be dying.