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The Secretary of State’s office sent out a memo yesterday trumpeting a record high voter registration mark of 3.6 million, up almost 100,000 above the previous record set in 2004.  But if you look closely at the numbers, it’s likely the number of new, active voters is actually considerably higher.

Since the state launched a computerized database in January of 2006, about 482,000 registrations have been cancelled or made inactive, including about 160,000 duplicate, deceased or felon voters. As of mid-October, about 713,000 new or re-activated registrations were posted during the same time period.

It remains unclear how many valid registered voters were thrown off the rolls in this massive purge—no doubt there were some—and the issue of whether Washington’s harshest in the nation felon disenfranchisement laws comprise good public policy continues to be aggressively denied the public debate it deserves.  On these and other issues we’ve seen zero leadership and less than optimal transparency from Secretary of State Sam Reed.  But there is also no doubt that before the implementation of the federally mandated statewide voter registration database, the various county rolls were littered with erroneous, dead and duplicate registrations.

To be clear, actual polling place or mail-in voter fraud has remained virtually non-existent, with only a handful of cases prosecuted even after 2004’s intensely scrutinized and litigated gubernatorial election contest.  But our voter registration numbers have long been overinflated with non-voters and bad data, so the number of new, likely voters on the rolls is most certainly several times higher than the Secretary of State’s 100,000 figure would imply.

Everybody expects voter turnout to be higher this year, but with the credit largely given to increased interest in the presidential race, there’s been a lot of speculation about whether this would translate to higher participation in down-ballot races.  But I’m guessing that with the turnout calculations based on these cleaner rolls, turnout rates will be higher across the board.

We’ll see.

Sure, the market is down, but compared to the rest of the nation…

The report calls Seattle “a sturdy market,” saying it has become a “magnet for brainpower industries” and a global gateway.

Huh.  I guess this lousy economic stewardship is why the building industry is betting the bank to defeat Gov. Gregoire?

Via the AP:

Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

So… if there is a terrorist attack in the days before the election, are Americans stupid enough to do exactly what al-Qaida wants, and elect the “impetuous” John McCain?

Today’s analysis incorporates a slight change to my algorithm. With exactly two weeks left until the election, I’ve reduced the window for “current polls” from 14 days down to 10 days. (I’ll reduce that down to 7 days when there is one week remaining—these changes were all planned in advance).

With that in mind, Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174 electoral votes. Obama would have won an election held yesterday with near 100% certainty.

Today there were a remarkable 17 new polls covering 14 states released. The new polls (and, perhaps, with an assist from changes to the “current poll” window) give Obama a modest gain in his expected electoral votes.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama gains four new electoral votes, for an average of 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Again, in an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

From Politico:

The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.

There’s always been a certain multi-level marketing flavor to the Republican GOP Party. If a lot of their candidates remind you of infomercial hosts, it’s because basically they are. You too can enjoy (success, wealth, esteem, love, real estate fortune) if you too purchase Brand Republican! See, they’ve lifted up an obscure governor and elevated her to unimaginable heights of material plenty. You could be next!

Not that a lot of the hooting and hollering hard right types at her rallies will care. They’re in love, or more accurately (blood) lust, and such passion cannot be constrained by petty concerns over hypocrisy. So she’s standing there extolling the virtues of the “pro-America” parts of the country wearing clothing that costs more than a hundred El Caminos. So what?

She looks marvelous. If only political candidates didn’t have to speak.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E., although some of us show up early for dinner.

Tonight’s activities? We’ll be filling out stacks of ballots we got from submitting the names of cartoon characters to ACORN. Then we’ll think about new ways to enact middle class tax cuts socialism in Washington state. We’ll cap-off the evening by having our pictures taken with a terrorist. It’ll be fun! Hope you can make it.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

The October Elway Poll of 405 registered voters, conducted October 16-19 shows Gov. Chris Gregoire leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi by a 51 to 39 percent margin, up slightly from Elway’s 50-42 September results.  The Elway Poll has been unique throughout the year in showing Gregoire with a substantial advantage; most other recent polls have shown the race well within the margin of error.

It is interesting to note that the much anticipated “Obama/Rossi” voter is not materializing in the Elway Poll.  Elway found 8% of Obama voters planning to vote for Rossi.  But they also found 8% of McCain voters planning to vote for Gregoire.  Obama, by the way, was found to be preferred by 55 to 36 percent margin.

And perhaps a very significant observation by Elway in his comments:

“Gregoire has an edge on values among those who care most about those issues.  Gregoire is seen as Moderate Liberal.  Rossi is seen as conservative.  He wasn’t in 2004.”

If that is true, and Rossi goes on to lose, that shift in perception will explain this election in a nutshell.  Conservative Republicans simply can’t win statewide if voters understand them to be conservative.

Via Open Left, Democratic consultant Blair Butterworth explains Dave Reichert’s half million dollars in free (ie, illegal) TV advertising, and how this scam works.

According CQ, at $3.2 million thus far, Darcy Burner has raised more money than any other Democratic challenger in the nation.  And as has been previously noted, this is not just a netroots thing, as Darcy has substantially more in district and in state individual contributors and contributions than Dave Reichert.

A pretty impressive show of grassroots support.

Washington’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in September, from a recent high of 6 percent in August, with the majority of job losses coming in the public sector:

More than 11,600 jobs were lost in the government sector in September, with 79 percent of those jobs in local government and 19 percent from state government.

So WA’s unemployment rate is 5.8 percent compared to 6.1 percent nationally (only 4.6 percent in the Seattle metropolitan area), while the state has shown a 1 percent net increase in jobs over the past 12 months, compared to a 0.7 percent decline nationally.  And the vast majority of the job losses these days are in the government sector.

So what exactly is Dino Rossi’s complaint about the way Gov. Gregoire is handling our budget and our economy?

Exactly a month ago, after the Seattle Times editorial board transparently feigned bipartisanship by endorsing Barack Obama, I wrote:

As expected, the Seattle Times editorial board has endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States, paving the way for endorsements of Republicans Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna, Sam Reed, Allan Martin, Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris Rodgers, all the while leaving their vaunted bipartisan principles intact.  At least, in their own minds.

In fact, with the possible exception of the race for Commissioner of Public Lands, I can’t imagine a single additional closely contested statewide or federal race in WA state in which the Times endorses a Democrat.

I’d be happy to be proven wrong.  But I wouldn’t bet on it.

So, how did my predictions turn out?  As of today, the Seattle Times has endorsed Republicans Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna, Sam Reed, Allan Martin, Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris Rodgers, while Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark did indeed get the ed board’s nod for Commissioner of Public Lands.  I ran the table.

Of course, the Times will publish meaningless endorsements of Democratic incumbents in the virtually uncontested races for Lt. Governor, Auditor and Insurance Commissioner (nominally Democratic in the case of Owen and Sonntag), but with the exception of Obama and Goldmark, the editors of the self-proclaimed paper of record for one of the bluest cities in America are once again backing a full slate of Republicans for every high profile contested statewide or federal race.

As is their right, I suppose.

But how thoughtful and meaningful are editorial endorsements when they can be so easily predicted a month in advance?

I’d say, not very.

UPDATE:
I want to be clear that I did not attempt to predict the Seattle P-I’s endorsements, because I couldn’t. No doubt the P-I’s ed board tends to lean significantly more liberal than the Times, but they are still media establishment types who overwhelmingly favor incumbents.  And, as naive a notion as it is, the P-I seems to genuinely embrace nonpartisanship as a lofty ideal, whereas the Times merely manipulatively embraces it as useful rhetoric.

There’s yet another Republican campaign finance scandal brewing in Washington state, one with the potential to lead to felony charges, and so I eagerly scanned the headlines this morning to see if our dailies had figured out the huge story that was falling into their laps.

As Josh first reported yesterday, Dave Reichert is getting his TV ads on credit, an arrangement that now appears to amount to at least a half a million dollars in illegal loans.  And what is the headline the Seattle Times chooses to slap on the story?  “Burner loans campaign $140,000 for ads.”

Really?  That’s the big story here?  Are the Times’ editors that dumb, or are they just incredibly dishonest?

See, Darcy’s short-term bridge loan is legal, and extremely common.  It’s nothing but a cashflow maneuver that permits the campaign to continue spending money as fast as it’s raising it without drawing down reserves to zero.  Darcy doesn’t have the personal wealth to fund her own campaign, and you can be damn sure she plans to pay herself back.

But Reichert’s media credit card, that’s a clear violation of FEC rules:

If you loan money to a candidate or political committee, you have made a contribution, even if you charge interest on the loan. The outstanding amount of the loan counts against the contribution limits. Loan repayments, therefore, decrease the amount of your contribution.

Nevertheless, if your loan exceeds the limits, it is an illegal contribution, even if it is later repaid in full. Endorsements and guarantees of  bank loans are also considered contributions. Endorsers and guarantors are liable for equal portions of a loan unless the agreement states otherwise. You alone, therefore, may not endorse a $10,000 loan to a candidate committee. There must be four other individual endorsers so that each one is liable only for $2,300, the per  election limit.

The point of these regulations is obvious; if Reichert can buy advertising on credit, with payment not due until after the election, that means he can pay off 2008 expenditures with money raised for the 2010 cycle… something apparently Reichert did to a much smaller extent last time around.  Now Reichert going much deeper into the hole, booking ads worth hundreds of thousands of dollars more than he has cash on hand, or any expectation of raising between now and November.  And whether it be from the TV stations or his media buyer, that constitutes a massive campaign contribution far in excess of federal limits.

This is clearly illegal, and the campaign must know it, but like other Republican campaigns in Washington state this year, Reichert has apparently determined that the inevitable fines after the fact are just a part of the cost of winning.

That our local media can’t (or won’t) see this scandal, is truly stunning.

UPDATE:
To be fair to reporter Emily Heffter, she didn’t write the bullshit headline.  And to be fair to the Times, at least they attempted to report on the story, even if they haven’t yet recognized its significance.  Meanwhile, crickets from the P-I and the TNT.

Via Artistdogboy.