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Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by an average of 368 to 170 electoral votes. Today there were 18 new polls representing 12 states released that weigh in on the score. The net result is a small gain for Obama.

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections finds that Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes—a gain of two. If an election had been held today, Obama would have had a near 100% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days over the period 22-Feb to 22-Oct. After a very slight period of decline, Obama is again gaining with time:

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

The big topic of conversation was the seemingly illegal contribution to Rep. Dave Reichert’s campaign by Media Plus. Did Reichert violate the letter of the law, or just the spirit of the law? Are Republicans like Reichert and Rossi ignoring election financing laws, and treating post-elections fines as the cost of doing business? From there, a heady discussion arose about liberalism and conservatism, and what liberals must do about conservatives.

Goldy was joined by Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, and Eat The State’s Geov Parrish.

The show is 56:26, and is available here as an MP3:

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]

So I guess all those folks who pooh-poohed last week’s polls as partisan propaganda are eating a little crow now.

Meanwhile, I’ll have more on this later, but Matt Stoller pretty much puts knife through the scandal that isn’t.

I’ve heard a number of political observers wonder how the RGA and the BIAW can possibly spend the enormous sum of money they’ve dumped into the final two weeks of Dino Rossi’s campaign when the airwaves are already saturated with political ads?  One answer:

The Building Industry Association of Washington is making Dino Rossi’s “citizens movement” a little more attractive to strapped-for-cash citizens. It might surprise “Reduce the Minimum Wage” Rossi that the BIAW is luring paid canvassers with a wage of $12 an hour, almost $4 an hour more than Washington’s minimum wage.

So… if Dino Rossi really has all the grassroots support he claims, why is he spending $12/hour hiring canvassers, while Gov. Gregoire and the Democrats are mostly relying on thousands of unpaid volunteers?

Hmm….

From TPM:

National House Committees Shell Out Big Money, NRCC Finally In The Game
Both parties’ national House committees shelled out big bucks in the newest federal filings. The DCCC spent nearly $4 million in yesterday’s FEC filings, with the biggest expenditure going for $450,000 against Rep. Robin “Liberals Hate Real Americans” Hayes (R-NC). The NRCC, which has held on to its much smaller war chest until the home stretch of the campaign, spent $4.1 million, with the biggest payment going for over $450,000 to defend Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA).

That’s right, the DCCC is focusing its largest buy against a hate-talking, McCarthyite wing-nut, while the NRCC is focusing its resources in defense of… Dave Reichert.

He says he’s an outsider.  He says he’s independent.  He says he’s moderate.  And yet the party of Michele Bachmann, who says members of Congress should be investigated to find out who is “pro-America” and who is “anti-America,” is focusing its resources reelecting Reichert.  Telling.

The $150,000 the RNC spent on clothing for Sarah Palin is far from the most important issue in this campaign, but I agree with those who suggest that it may be a defining moment.  A self-defined “hockey mom” should be shopping at Walmart or Target or Sears, with maybe a pricier outfit or three befitting her suddenly elevated position.  But $150,000?  Which part of America spends money like that on clothes?

This is a bad story for the McCain/Palin ticket as it highlights the hypocrisy of their faux-populist attacks.  But then, with so many bad stories these days, maybe it won’t make a difference.

The Secretary of State’s office sent out a memo yesterday trumpeting a record high voter registration mark of 3.6 million, up almost 100,000 above the previous record set in 2004.  But if you look closely at the numbers, it’s likely the number of new, active voters is actually considerably higher.

Since the state launched a computerized database in January of 2006, about 482,000 registrations have been cancelled or made inactive, including about 160,000 duplicate, deceased or felon voters. As of mid-October, about 713,000 new or re-activated registrations were posted during the same time period.

It remains unclear how many valid registered voters were thrown off the rolls in this massive purge—no doubt there were some—and the issue of whether Washington’s harshest in the nation felon disenfranchisement laws comprise good public policy continues to be aggressively denied the public debate it deserves.  On these and other issues we’ve seen zero leadership and less than optimal transparency from Secretary of State Sam Reed.  But there is also no doubt that before the implementation of the federally mandated statewide voter registration database, the various county rolls were littered with erroneous, dead and duplicate registrations.

To be clear, actual polling place or mail-in voter fraud has remained virtually non-existent, with only a handful of cases prosecuted even after 2004’s intensely scrutinized and litigated gubernatorial election contest.  But our voter registration numbers have long been overinflated with non-voters and bad data, so the number of new, likely voters on the rolls is most certainly several times higher than the Secretary of State’s 100,000 figure would imply.

Everybody expects voter turnout to be higher this year, but with the credit largely given to increased interest in the presidential race, there’s been a lot of speculation about whether this would translate to higher participation in down-ballot races.  But I’m guessing that with the turnout calculations based on these cleaner rolls, turnout rates will be higher across the board.

We’ll see.

Sure, the market is down, but compared to the rest of the nation…

The report calls Seattle “a sturdy market,” saying it has become a “magnet for brainpower industries” and a global gateway.

Huh.  I guess this lousy economic stewardship is why the building industry is betting the bank to defeat Gov. Gregoire?

Via the AP:

Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

So… if there is a terrorist attack in the days before the election, are Americans stupid enough to do exactly what al-Qaida wants, and elect the “impetuous” John McCain?

Today’s analysis incorporates a slight change to my algorithm. With exactly two weeks left until the election, I’ve reduced the window for “current polls” from 14 days down to 10 days. (I’ll reduce that down to 7 days when there is one week remaining—these changes were all planned in advance).

With that in mind, Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174 electoral votes. Obama would have won an election held yesterday with near 100% certainty.

Today there were a remarkable 17 new polls covering 14 states released. The new polls (and, perhaps, with an assist from changes to the “current poll” window) give Obama a modest gain in his expected electoral votes.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama gains four new electoral votes, for an average of 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Again, in an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

From Politico:

The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.

There’s always been a certain multi-level marketing flavor to the Republican GOP Party. If a lot of their candidates remind you of infomercial hosts, it’s because basically they are. You too can enjoy (success, wealth, esteem, love, real estate fortune) if you too purchase Brand Republican! See, they’ve lifted up an obscure governor and elevated her to unimaginable heights of material plenty. You could be next!

Not that a lot of the hooting and hollering hard right types at her rallies will care. They’re in love, or more accurately (blood) lust, and such passion cannot be constrained by petty concerns over hypocrisy. So she’s standing there extolling the virtues of the “pro-America” parts of the country wearing clothing that costs more than a hundred El Caminos. So what?

She looks marvelous. If only political candidates didn’t have to speak.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E., although some of us show up early for dinner.

Tonight’s activities? We’ll be filling out stacks of ballots we got from submitting the names of cartoon characters to ACORN. Then we’ll think about new ways to enact middle class tax cuts socialism in Washington state. We’ll cap-off the evening by having our pictures taken with a terrorist. It’ll be fun! Hope you can make it.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.