HorsesAss.Org

I’m in the midst of writing a rather longish post-election analysis of the gubernatorial race, attempting to explain Gov. Chris Gregoire’s decisive victory in what most observers expected to be a nail-biter of a rematch, but I thought I’d take a moment to quickly share a rather heretical observation:  Gregoire not only ran a better campaign, her winning strategy was exemplified by her much maligned ads attacking Dino Rossi for opposing embryonic stem cell research.

Of course it is true, as many critics have pointed out, that few if any voters would cast their ballots based on an issue the Seattle Times angrily argued had “nothing to do” with the job of governor, but that critique misses the broader symbolic value of the issue.  What the Gregoire campaign accomplished with these ads was something they failed to even attempt in 2004:  they defined Rossi as a religious conservative, a strategy that ultimately pays off big dividends with our state’s politically split, but decidedly socially libertarian electorate.

In fact, I’d argue that the Gregoire campaign borrowed an earmarked page from the Republican playbook, successfully portraying the Governor as the candidate who best represented the values of the majority of voters.  And toward that end, these stem cell ads proved to be an extremely effective if subtle tactic.

One could have attacked Rossi on his opposition to legal abortion, but a lot of people oppose abortion on moral grounds, and we tend to be a religiously tolerant nation.  One could have attacked Rossi on the pharmacist rule or abstinence only sex education, but these are complicated issues not easily explained in a 30-second spot.  But the stem cell research issue proved to be a perfect proxy, defining Rossi as a candidate who would impose his own conservative religious values even into the realm of science, adversely affecting the ability of individuals to make health care decisions for themselves.  In effect, these stem cell ads defined Rossi as too conservative for Washington, along the lines of Ellen Craswell and John Carlson.

Indeed, this values theme was repeated throughout Gov. Gregoire’s paid media, for example, on the issues of education and children’s health care.  Even on the issue of our state’s projected multi-billion dollar revenue shortfall, the Gregoire campaign focused on her pro-children values, emphasizing that Rossi attempted to cut health care for 40,000 children while the Governor expanded the rolls, and that Gregoire had increased spending on education while Rossi’s transportation spending proposal would come at the expense of our schools.  Who do you best trust to balance our budget, Gregoire asked, leaving it to voters to choose the candidate who best represented their values.

By comparison, the Rossi campaign was for the most part value free, attacking Gregoire on her performance in office—taxes, spending, budget deficit, etc.—while failing to even attempt to define the Governor as too liberal, apart from a half-hearted last ditch effort to claim she would impose an income tax.  Likewise, following 2004’s successful Tabula Rossi strategy—in which voters read moderation into his refusal to discuss social issues—Rossi even declined to define himself.  Only this time around, the Gregoire campaign did it for him.  As Stuart Elway noted in his October poll:

“Gregoire has an edge on values among those who care most about those issues.  Gregoire is seen as Moderate Liberal.  Rossi is seen as conservative.  He wasn’t in 2004.”

This shift in public perception of Rossi’s values proved to be one of the major differences between 2004 and 2008… and it didn’t happen by accident.  Score one for the Gregoire campaign.

The King County Sheriff’s Department, prosecutor’s office and other law enforcement officials have sounded the alarm over impending budget cuts, warning that they could result in a significant adverse impact on public safety.  And no doubt that’s true.

But as municipal governments statewide struggle to cope with the economic downturn and its resulting decline in sales and property tax revenues, it is important to remember that the criminal justice system comprises over 70 percent of the general fund of nearly every county in the state, and thus any substantial decline in local tax revenues is going to inevitably impact public safety.  You simply cannot effectively address substantial budget shortfalls without addressing the largest part of your budget.

Washington Democrats have every reason to be cheered over last Tuesday’s election results, but as far as I can tell our party leaders have no plan in place to address our long term state and local structural revenue deficit… a deficit that when adjusted for good and bad economic times, assures that tax revenues cannot possibly keep pace with economic growth, and thus cannot possibly keep pace with growth in demand for public services.

If what we want is a dramatically smaller government, we can elect Republicans, or, apparently, we can elect Democrats, and just gradually get to the same place by default.  If that’s what voters really want, just don’t complain when the Sheriff’s Department starts laying off officers.

Right Wing Nut House proprietor Rick Moran writes at American Thinker:

No one is saying that the Democrats are trying to steal the Minnesota senate race between GOP incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic clown Al Franken – yet

And after citing an article comparing the Minnesota Senatorial election to the Florida 2000 debacle, Moran goes on to suggest that the election is being stolen, but in a slightly different way:

This is shaping up more and more like the transparent way the Washington state governor’s race was stolen by Democrats in 2006 when hundreds of ballots were suddenly “found” in Democratic King County – many of them coming from people (it was later determined) with unverifiable addresses.

Here we see the seeds of the type of propaganda effort, based on twisting of the truth and downright factually incorrect information (what is called, in less polite company, fucking lies), that occurred during the previous Washington state gubernatorial contest.

Interestingly, the the previous bullshit propaganda is cited as “evidence” to bolster the new propaganda efforts. I guess this is what Bush meant by “catapult the propaganda.”

Let’s ignore the first error—the race in question was 2004, not 2006. That’s an honest mistake that any out-of-state Wingnut could make.

The propaganda begins by the suggestion that ballots were “suddenly ‘found,'” in King County, as if nobody had any idea where the ballots came from. The implication, of course, is that they were manufactured after the election and thrown into the mix to change the outcome

There were several batches of “found” ballots in King County. The first batch resulted when elections workers put aside ballots from people whose signatures had not been previously scanned into the computer system. The workers were supposed to check the signatures against the paper records, but they didn’t. This was only discovered because King County Councilman Larry Phillips was one of the victims. A total of 561 absentee ballots were “found” this way.

The other source of found ballots came from the insides of secured voting machines and trays stored in a secure warehouse. There were 723 ~160 of these ballots literally found. But they were valid ballots cast during the election, and the voters who cast them were entitled to have them counted. The Republicans sued to prevent these ballots from being canvassed. The state Supreme Court rejected that idea.

The other implication in Moran’s statement is that, somehow, King County stood out as the source of “found” ballots. There were other counties that also “found” ballots. In fact, King County did not have the highest “error rate” in the state—there were four counties with higher rates. King County did have errors, but only at a rate slightly higher than the background rate for the whole state. King County also had a substantially higher voter load, with the same amount of processing time as other counties, so this is hardly surprising. The Republicans lost the election contest lawsuit in every way—except for the propaganda wars.

The final bit of propaganda in Moran’s statement is an irresponsible falsehood. He states that the “found” ballots in King County had “unverifiable addresses.” Um…no.

I don’t know where this notion came from. Perhaps Moran is confusing the 2004 election contest with a 2005 Republican scandal in which the senior vice president of the King County Republican Party, Lori Sotelo, challenged 1,944 voters days before the election, based on some sloppy attempts to find voter addresses that were not real residences (mailbox outlets or storage facilities). The challenges were potentially perjurious, fradulent, and hugely error prone (only 58 ballots of 1,944 challenges were disqualified). The episode had nothing to do with the contested 2004 election.

In sum…Moran doesn’t know what the fuck he is talking about.

He probably doen’t care…truth and accuracy are not what it is all about. It’s the early stages of a shameless propaganda effort.

Let’s hope the politicians, the political parties, the media, and the bloggers do a better job with fighting Republican bullshit about election-fraud in Minnesota in 2008–2009 than they did with Washington state in 2004–2005.

At the end of Thursday night’s Browns-Broncos game, Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall caught the go-ahead touchdown with 1:14 remaining in the game. He appeared to pull something out of his uniform, but Brandon Stokley, his fellow Bronco receiver, ran over to him shaking his head no. I saw this clearly and couldn’t figure out what the hell was going on. After the game, Marshall explained:

After the game, Marshall, who is black, read a statement he wrote about how inspired he was by Obama becoming the first black man elected to the nation’s highest office.

“Barak Obama’s election as the 44th president of the United States is a tremendous symbol of unity,” Marshall said. “I want to create that symbol of unity because Obama inspires me (and) a multicultural society, and I know at the 1968 Olympics in Mexico, Tommie Smith and John Carlos raised that black glove and fist in a silent gesture of black power and liberation.

“Forty years later, I wanted to make my own statement and gesture to represent the progress we made,” Marshall said. “I might get some criticism, but social landmarks are bigger than fines to me, especially two days out of an historic election.”

Stokley had a good reason to do what he did. The NFL flags people for excessive celebrations and a 15-yard penalty on the kickoff might have eventually cost Denver the game. But the NFL missed out on what would have been a very memorable moment for the league. Instead, they reinforced their stereotype as the No Fun League. They do this to avoid controversy, but when you’re always trying to avoid controversy, you end up just being boring. I’m ok with a stupid Terrell Owens touchdown celebration once in a while if it means we get to see one that’s truly inspired.

Last week’s Birds Eye View Contest went unsolved, but something weird did happen with the picture. When I first copied it last week, at intersection of Amethyst St and Raynol St in Los Angeles, there were no homes ready to slide down the hill. I went back there just now, and…homes have been built! Doesn’t Southern California have enough empty houses already? Sorry to everyone who tried solving that one, although I think wes.in.wa was on it. That was way hard.

Here’s this week’s…it’s not impossible. Good luck.

Control of the Clark County commission may hinge on a recount. The Columbian reports that Republican former state legislator Tom Mielke has a slim 78 vote lead over Democrat Pam Brokaw. Since Republican incumbent Marc Boldt won handily, and Democrat Steve Stuart was not up this year, partisan control will rest on the outcome of the Mielke-Brokaw race.

Don’t know exactly why ballots counted later tend to break Republican, and I suppose it doesn’t matter as the votes are the votes, but it is like water torture, as Aneurin observes.

So maybe Darcy should complain to the Washington News Council, that supposedly objective collection of movers and shakers who have arrogated to themselves the right to decide what constitutes real journalism. They did so in the WA-08 race in 2006, when they voted thumbs down on a P-I story about the real story behind Dave Reichert’s investigation of the Green River Killer. The P-I wisely rejected their findings, but the Washington New Council got their little kangaroo court broadcast on TVW, if I recall correctly. So our tax dollars were being used against us in a bald political manner, even if it was all dressed up in legal niceties. Still waiting on the Legislative hearings asking TVW um, WTF?

Here we are two years later and the Seattle Times indisputably did a hit job on Darcy Burner, so I’m sure the Washington News Council will be all over it.

And the Washington News Council is having a nice dinner tomorrow night! You should go. Really. I bet they’ll just be outraged about what happened to Burner and can’t wait to get to the bottom of it.

Here’s the poster:

Yesterday, I was watching President-elect Barack Obama’s first post-election press conference, when Will called, and I scolded him for interrupting me while I was watching “my President.”  And I suddenly realized how long it’s been since I was able to utter the phrase “my President,” without throwing up in my mouth.

A historic election indeed.

To find out why this is the coolest thing ever, click here.

Darcy issued the following brief statement:

“It is likely at this point that Congressman Reichert has won re-election, and while we will certainly ensure that every valid vote is counted, we accept the decision of the voters.

“I would like to thank the thousands of people who put so much time and effort into the campaign, as well as the countless thousands more who went beyond voting to actively participate in our democratic process this year. The election of Barack Obama as our new President will ensure that the change to the direction of our country called for in this campaign is realized in the new year.”

I will write my own analysis later, but for the moment, I can’t disagree with Joan’s comments over at Daily Kos:

The Seattle Times spurious attack on Darcy’s character, calling her a liar because she accurately described her Harvard degree, apparently worked. So they succeeded in re-electing an already ineffective incumbent who will be even more so mired deep in the minority, with a Democratic president.

Congratulations, Emily Heffter and the Seattle Times. You just assured progress on key issues like transportation and environmental protection in the 8th District won’t have an effective proponent in the House. At least we’ve got good Senators.

I want to thank all of you here at HA who contributed so much time, money and support to Darcy during her two campaigns.  And I want to thank Darcy for dedicating four years out of her life to this cause.  I don’t know if she’ll ever serve in Congress, but I sincerely doubt that this is the last we’ve heard of Darcy Burner.

Super Obama World

David Carrier, who mounted a vigorous campaign against incumbent Sen. Don Benton, R-Vancouver, has conceded the race this evening as today’s totals show Benton with a lead of roughly 51%-49%. In a news release Carrier urged citizens to be vigilant.

We can’t afford to sit back while Senator Benton blocks legislative solutions that will improve our lives and the lives of our children. We can’t allow him to miss legislative sessions, committee meetings, and important votes. We can’t allow him to blow off meetings with constituents. We can’t let him get away with false allegations and deceptive campaign tactics. The people of the 17th Legislative District deserve better, and must hold him accountable.

Doesn’t sound like Carrier’s going to fade away quietly to me.

Carrier’s run was an impressive showing by a novice candidate running against one of the best funded Republican incumbents in the state. Here’s hoping Carrier decides to run for office again at some point, be it in the 17th LD or for some other position.

I’ve read a number of analyses attempting to explain Gov. Chris Gregoire’s decisive, 8-point victory over Dino Rossi in what has long been heralded as a nail-biter of a race, and I find it curious that everybody seems to miss the obvious:  voters were largely satisfied with the Governor’s job performance during her first four years in office.

Everybody was so focused on casting this race as a rematch of 2004’s virtual tie, that they seemed to ignore the dramatically different circumstances.  Four years ago this was a race for an open seat, pitting two contrasting personalities against each year.  The state decidedly leans Democratic, but Rossi came off as more personable, while an over-confident Gregoire campaign failed to challenge the Republican’s vague mask of moderation.  Meanwhile, Rossi’s “she’s too liberal,” “she’s gonna raise your taxes,” “she’s an Olympia insider” attacks resonated enough to make Gregoire appear a risky choice to many crucial swing voters.

But over the past four years Washington voters have come to know Gov. Gregoire… not as well as they should have, but well enough.  And as it so happens, it turned out she wasn’t too liberal, she didn’t ignore Eastern Washington, and apart from the gas and estate taxes—both approved overwhelmingly at the polls—Gregoire didn’t raise our taxes.

Fear of the unknown is a powerful force, but this time around Gregoire was known… and she just didn’t come off as all that scary, no matter how many times that asshole pitchman poured gasoline on a flaming stack of money.

This isn’t rocket science.  This was a referendum on the Governor’s job performance.  And on that measure, Gregoire won hands down, increasing her margins in 30 of 39 counties.

Of course, the strategy and execution of the two campaigns also came into play, as did various other external factors, and I’ll have more to say on that a little later.  But with even the post-election analysis of Gregoire’s own campaign manager failing to mention Gregoire’s job performance as a critical factor, I just wanted to give a little credit where credit was due.

For all our differences on policy and strategy, and there are more than a few, Chris Gregoire has proven herself to be an excellent governor… and in reelecting her, our state’s electorate has proven itself to be an excellent judge of both character and competence.

From Editor and Publisher yesterday:

The American Press Institute (API) will host an invitation-only, closed-door “summit conference” Nov. 13 in which 50 CEO-level executives will ponder ways to revive the newspaper business.

The one-day conference at API’s Reston, Va., headquarters will be “a facilitated discussion of concrete steps the industry can take to reverse its declines in revenue, profit and shareholder value.”

And here’s Robert MacMillan of Reuters writing about the closed door policy at the crisis summit in a post today:

Many sources whom we deal with in the media world — particularly reporters, editors and other members of the editorial staff — find it funny that the industry they’re in (finding and reporting information, truthsquadding the government, holding the powerful accountable, etc. etc.) relies on publishers and other executives who are among the most press-averse people in the business world. Some executives talk. But many others hide, and only come out once a quarter to share some more bad news.

Maybe reporters should try publishing false accounts of their owners’ educational backgrounds, that might shake things up a bit. We’ll call it the Heffter-Pickler Reporting Method.

Initiative 1029 is passing by a lopsided 73-27 percent margin, and how do the editors at the Seattle Times celebrate this exercise in direct democracy?

The Legislature and the governor should exercise their right to overturn this initiative immediately. That’s a tall order, because it would require two-thirds vote of both houses if lawmakers opt to do it within two years of passage.

Hear that?  The Times thinks three quarters of its readers are idiots, easily deceived by an “artfully worded ballot measure.”

I’ve long argued that the intiative process is a crappy way to write legislation, and I don’t doubt that I-1029 might have benefited from a more deliberative process.  But for a paper that routinely defends anti-tax, anti-government, anti-labor initiatives as inviolate expressions of “the will of the people,” this editorial reads as a masterful stroke of unselfconcious hypocrisy.

Had the execrable and unworkable I-985 passed on Tuesday, even by the slightest of margins, would the Times have demanded that the Legislature exercise its “right” to overturn the initiative?  How about the blatantly unconstitutional and anti-democratic I-960, that passed by a narrow 51-49 percent margin, yet requires a two-thirds majority for any tax or fee increase?  Would the Times cheer a legislative effort to exercise their “right” to overturn that initiative?

I don’t think so.

So be forewarned.  The next time the Times editors defend an initiative or the initiative process by cynically appealing to “the will of the people,” I’m going to shove today’s editorial so far up Fairview’s fanny they’ll have newsprint coming out of their mouths.