HorsesAss.Org

Finish up that 1040, stamp it, seal it, and drop it in the mailbox. And then join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. The festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at 8:00 pm. Or stop by earlier for dinner.

Tonight we’ll probably spend some time finalizing our super secret plans for infiltrating the Wingnut teabagging events.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrfEy5-Do30[/youtube]

Not in Seattle? The Drinking Liberally web site has dates and times for 328 chapters of Drinking Liberally spread across the earth.

In the autumn of 2004, about six months after the death of my horse’s ass initiative, and about six months before I would start blogging, my fellow activist Steve Zemke somehow managed to arrange a meeting for us with House Speaker Frank Chopp and then House Finance Committee chair, now State Treasurer, Jim McIntire.  Our purpose was to urge them to pursue some sort of progressive property tax reform in an effort to preempt Tim Eyman’s next initiative, but the conversation drifted broadly toward our structural revenue deficit, and thus inevitably, to an income tax.

Both Frank and Jim supported an income tax—in theory—but neither seemed too keen on raising the issue anytime soon.  In fact, I clearly remember Jim warning me that any attempt to push an income tax prematurely could set our efforts back by a decade or more.

But Jim did put forth one scenario in which he could envision an income tax passing voters, a thesis I’ve since heard from other Olympia insiders, and which I’ve dubbed the “Phoenix Model.”  Under this scenario, a brutal economic downturn combined with a decades-long erosion of our sales tax base could create a budget crisis so severe that legislators and voters would have no choice but to resort to an income tax, or… dramatically reduce the role and scope of Washington state government.  Out of this budgetary Armageddon a new tax structure would be born, so the theory went, like the mythical phoenix rising from its own ashes.

So… um… aren’t we in that scenario now?

How much worse does the budget crisis have to get before voters and their elected officials accept that we cannot build a 21st century economy on the back of an early 20th century tax system?  How many more hundreds of thousands of Washington citizens must be thrown off the health care rolls or denied a college education?  How many businesses must flee our state or avoid starting up here due to the lack of an adequate transportation system or educated workforce or any number of other vital investments in public and human infrastructure?

How many billions of dollars must our budget be in a hole, and how many consecutive budgets must this hole be plugged through cruel cuts and regressive stopgap measures before the emergence of political leaders who are more concerned with long term solutions than with short term political gains?

In the Senate, I have been heartened by the leadership provided on this issue by Majority Leader Lisa Brown, and by the public support displayed by Senators Kohl-Wells, Regala, McDermott, Murray, Kline, and Fraser.  Folks in the know suggest that should a high-earners income tax come to a vote in the Senate, Brown could likely corral enough support to put it on the fall ballot.

But from the House leadership, all we hear are crickets.

If House Finance Committee chair Ross Hunter (D-48) were to take the lead on a high-earners income tax he could rally support behind it and perhaps even push it to the floor for a vote.  Yes, I know he’s focused on passing the education reforms on which he’s passionately dedicated himself for years, but few of these reforms are possible without the funding to back them up.  And yes, I understand that he plans to run for King County Executive, but taking the lead on a high-earners income tax could be exactly what he needs to grab the edge with Seattle voters over Seattle liberals Larry Phillips and Dow Constantine.

But Hunter isn’t even technically a member of the House Democratic Leadership.  So where’s Rep. Larry Springer (D-45) who represents an Eastside district where education funding routinely tops the list of voter concerns, or Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-11) a guy at least as comfortable palling around with DFH’s like me as he is with Olympia power brokers?  Where’s my own representative, Majority Whip Sharon Tomiko Santos (D-37), a long time member of the Tax Fairness Coalition who represents citizens about as adversely effected by our regressive tax structure as any in the state, and who would suffer mightily under the proposed cuts?

For that matter, where the hell is our entire Seattle House delegation?

Yes, I know, I know, I know that Frank is as steeped in the conventional Olympia wisdom as the majority of the observers in the establishment press, and I know that he fears for his majority.  And I know that Frank doesn’t really believe a high-earners income tax could pass voters, regardless of its surprisingly good showing in recent polls.  But he can be nudged.  He can be pushed.  He could even be shoved.

Frank’s not a monolith.  He is open to persuasion, and he does change his mind.  But he’s clearly not going to take the lead on this issue on his own.

That’s why for those of you in the House who believe that an income tax is the only solution to our long term structural deficit, and who understand that after the federal stimulus monies disappear and a temporary sales tax increase expires, we’ll be right back where we started, even with an economic recovery—and I’m confident that covers the majority of the Democratic caucus—the only responsible thing to do is to stand up and take the lead on this issue now, while we actually have an opportunity to pass it.

Don’t wait for Frank!  He’s way behind the electorate on this issue, and while I’m confident he’ll do the right thing and do it well once he’s brought up to speed, he’ll never get there unless some influential members of his caucus clear the way.

If a temporary sales tax increase was a sure thing at the polls, I’d understand your reluctance, considering the dire consequences should a revenue measure fail.  But it isn’t.  And in many ways, a high-earners income tax has considerably more political upside than any sales tax proposal.

So take a look at the recent the polling, and dive into the details.  Talk to your constituents and listen to their concerns about further regressivity.  And then somebody, anybody, please stand up and take the lead.

I’ll be on KUOW’s The Conversation this afternoon, between 12:15 and 12:30, talking about proposals for a temporary sales tax increase.  Listen live or download the podcast.

And for those of you listeners coming to HA looking for the statistics I’ve cited, here are some useful links.

Sales Tax vs Income Tax: A Short Primer in Fairness and Adequacy

Out of control spending?

Per capita revenues at 15-year low

Structural deficit

UPDATE:
If KUOW listeners are typical (and I’m not suggesting that they are,) they are a lot better informed, and a lot more supportive of an income tax than many of our politicians imagine.

Ow.

Washington state’s unemployment rate shot up to 9.2 percent last month, still higher than the national rate and nearly double what it was a year ago.

The increase was nearly 1 percentage point from February’s revised rate of 8.3 percent.

And in Oregon, really, really ow.

I’m taking a couple of days off, but I can’t help thinking about the news that Oregon’s unemployment rate has now climbed to 12.1 percent – equaling the worst of the state’s last deep recession, in the early 1980s.

It seems we’ve moved, as predicted, from a financial-sector-housing fraud-bubble crisis to a continued downward slide.

Both states need to reform their tax systems. Oregon hamstrung itself with California-style property tax restraints, and of course up here in Washington we have the stupid, broken, Depression-era “temporary tax system” that has been in effect for seventy years or whatever.

Nothing is a panacea, but having the traditional “three-legged stool” of state taxes would seem to be worth considering. Sales taxes play a role in moderating consumption, allowing consumers not to pay some of the tax by buying less. But income taxes have the advantage of automatically adjusting to changing economic conditions.

When you talk to regular folks about taxes, one of the first things they will say is that if you allow a new form of taxation, “they’ll just raise our taxes more.” Which, you know, is understandable, as the right-wing culture of resentment has been pushing this line of thought for forty years. But given the serious nature of the crisis and the threat to our long-term economic well being, especially in education, it would be nice if the state could at least try to reform the stupid, broken tax system.

I don’t know who the bidness guys and gals think are going to be the workers and leaders of tomorrow, but with massive tuition hikes and drastic cuts to K-12 looming as distinct possibilities, there is a danger the real threat to our future comes not from government spending but from savaging our public assets. Good luck with all that international investment in about ten-twenty years, guys. Most international corporations are looking for a highly skilled, highly educated work force.

It’s all a bit harder to explain than how to wave a teabag, but I figure most ordinary folks are still pretty darn worried about retirement and education. There’s an inherent suspicion about government, but there is also a genuine desire to have quality services in public safety, health care, transportation and education. What regular folks expect is value for their taxes, and if one cuts the very programs that help create a large, stable middle class, one is basically doing the work of the right for them.

So the issue for the leaders of this state is rather simple. Do something meaningful now about our stupid, broken tax system and be prepared to wage a battle against the know-nothing right wing assholes funded by right-wing foundation and PAC money, or do piddly little regressive sales tax measures in the hopes of threading a needle that can’t be threaded, and then be prepared to do battle against the know-nothing right wing assholes funded by right-wing foundation and PAC money.

The question isn’t when or how the right wing assholes will attack, the question is how much ground Democrats cede to them before actually fighting. (Does this sound in any way familiar to anyone? Did we not learn anything from the last eight years?)

In other words, fight now or fight later. Might as well do what’s in the best interest of the citizenry as a whole. In an economy continuing to fight deflationary pressures, public spending and investment is in the public interest.

In the most positive assessment since Gallup started polling the question in 1956, 48% of Americans now say the amount of federal income tax they pay is “about right,” while 46% say it is “too high,” marking a dramatic shift from the historic norm.

On the macro level, this shift in opinion should serve as a warning to Republicans who have long relied on cutting taxes as the central theme of their political campaigns.  But on the local level, I hope it prompts Democrats in Olympia, and their various constituent groups, to reevaluate the conventional group-think that insists an income tax is a non-starter for Washington voters.

Yeah, I know, I know… a broad personal income tax got trounced at the polls the last time it was on the ballot back in 1973, and an off-off election year is typically the worst time to put a progressive measure before voters who will surely skew to the right.  But this isn’t 1973, and in the midst of the Great Recession and an extended Obama honeymoon, we may be passing up a once in a generation opportunity to enact real reform.

Voters are in a mood.  They’re anxious about the economy and angry at the fat cats on Wall Street who led us into this crisis, which may help explain why a high-earners income tax is polling just about even with a third of cent increase in the sales tax. Obama campaigned on raising taxes on households earning over $250,000 a year, and he won by a wide margin here in WA state, so why wouldn’t WA voters support the same locally?  Well, given the right package, the right reasons and an effective communications campaign, they might.  I’m not saying a high-earners income tax measure is a sure thing, but for the first time in a long time, neither is its failure.

So the next time someone points to 1973 as evidence of political futility, I say point to this Gallup chart illustrating the dramatic shift in national attitudes over the past 36 years, and ask the question:  are Washington voters really all that different from the rest of the nation? Personally, I don’t think so.

From an Editor and Publisher article about how traditional journalists may be alienating younger readers with outdated pop culture references.

The Times is a citadel of retrotalk, on its Op-Ed page especially. Columnist Frank Rich once commented that George W. Bush had “a slight, almost Chauncey Gardiner quality,” referring to Peter Sellers’ simple-minded character in the 1979 movie “Being There.”

The Queen of Retrotalk is Times columnist Maureen Dowd. Dozens of examples I’ve harvested from her columns include “Nosey Parker,” “Ma Barker,” “Norma Desmond,” “Palin’s Imelda Marcos moment” and “Hillary’s inner Eve Harrington.” To describe how it felt to drive through Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and see no women on the streets, Dowd invoked a “Rod Serling–type feeling.”

I’m not sure this is the media’s biggest problem. I find familiarity with American’s TV history to be quite valuable when considering politics.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-yLYz6ejqw[/youtube]

Guns make you safer:

A Fort Lewis soldier is dead after being accidentally shot in the head and killed by his wife in Olympia, the Thurston County Sheriff’s Office says.

Lt. Chris Mealy of the sheriff’s office told KOMO-TV the soldier was teaching his wife how to handle a handgun when he was shot early Sunday. Mealy told The Olympian that the semi-automatic handgun was the soldier’s personal property.

I’m just sayin’.

As first reported on Seattle Transit Blog, the state House passed a $4.9 billion two-year transportation budget on Friday that restored funding for moving I-90’s HOV lanes (work necessary to keep the voter-approved East Link light rail project on schedule) and which removed language that would have barred the state Department of Transportation from negotiating air rights with Sound Transit for access to I-90.

This blog has long made the case that Rep. Clibborn has long been opposed to Link crossing I-90, so we hope that this is the first sign of a House that is friendlier toward transit — perhaps due to advocacy pressure. One legislator described our outreach campaign as “a deluge of emails set off by bloggers,” but we think it’s important that transit advocates let the state know how important voter-approved light rail projects are to the region.

It is difficult to accurately gauge the impact of citizen advocacy, but the folks at STB deserve a ton of credit for taking the lead on covering this issue, and pushing awareness amongst both rail supporters and legislators alike.  If I were them, I’d quietly put another notch in my belt.

But after talking to a number of reliable sources both in and outside Olympia, I’m not so sure it was Rep. Clibborn’s opposition to Link crossing I-90 that was the real motivation behind the anti-Link nature of the original bill.  Clibborn and others, I’m told, weren’t really hoping to scuttle East Link, which is pretty much accepted in Olympia as a done deal.  No, this was more of a shakedown… part of a calculated effort to extort a billion dollars or more from Sound Transit for access rights to I-90… money House Speaker Frank Chopp hopes to target to his preferred, but monstrously expensive, “Option K” Montlake tunnel alternative for the Western approach to the new 520 floating bridge.

At least a billion dollars, possibly two, that’s what Chopp has privately told lawmakers and lobbyists he wants for access to I-90 (a bridge, by the way, built 90% with federal dollars), and that’s why, I’m told, he had his lieutenants throw roadblocks into DOT’s negotiations with Sound Transit.  That’s potentially enough money to fund all of the controversial Option K tunnel.

Now, as House Speaker, I kinda expect Chopp to play games like this.  That’s politics.  It’s part of his job description.

But Chopp also represents the voters of Seattle’s 43rd Legislative District… voters who overwhelmingly voted last November to tax themselves to build light rail across Lake Washington, not a highway tunnel under Montlake.  We tried to pass a roads and transit measure back in 2007—I aggressively supported it—and it failed.  The successful 2008 ballot measure, on the other hand, was explicitly transit only.

The Speaker’s efforts to steal money from East Link to help pay for Option K, may be a clever political maneuver, but it clearly ignores the will of the voters, and threatens the ability of Sound Transit to complete a project that, due to the Great Recession, is already seeing lower than projected tax revenues, and for which ST had never factored in the cost of tunneling under Montlake.

And it’s not at all that clear that this effort is dead, even with passage of a relatively ST-friendly transportation bill.

Mike McGinn is running for mayor of Seattle. According to lots of people (including Publicola’s Josh Feit), McGinn rides his electric-assist bike all over Seattle:

Where’d you get that bike, Mike? Where does one get an electric bike around here?

For all the incessant attacks from Republicans questioning his fitness to be Commander in Chief, President Obama appears to have engaged rather forcefully in the recent standoff with Somali pirates:

U.S. Navy Seals had a standing order from President Barack Obama to take out the pirates who held an American captain in a standoff on the high seas, according to Pentagon officials and White House aides.

Over the course of the five-day standoff, Obama, who said little publicly about the hostage situation, received more than a dozen briefings and gave the Department of Defense policy guidance and the authority to use force if the situation compelled it.

Mission accomplished.

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the north end of the CNN complex in downtown Atlanta. Here’s this week’s, good luck!

A couple weeks ago, when I first set out on my recent series of obsessively wonky posts on Washington’s budget crisis and the structural revenue deficit at its heart, I pretty much knew what to expect.  Readership would trail off, incoming links would virtually disappear, and my comment threads would fill with automatic gainsaying, tired, anti-tax rhetoric, and pointless personal attacks on my manhood, my alleged socialism, and of course, my ethnicity.

i told u in your last post goldstein, get out of here and go to that garbage dump israel, and take that homo barney frank with u

No, my trolls rarely fail to disappoint.  And neither have the local media, whose coverage of this crisis, as expected, has largely focused on the spending side of the equation and the political machinations behind it, while providing little if any discussion of its causes, outside of the frame of the current economic cycle.

It is easy to point to a four-year period and show that spending has increased from X to Y.  It is much harder to cogently place this increase within the proper historical, economic and statistical context.  And so, for the most part, our media has failed to even try, and understandably so, for properly done, the subject matter is inherently godawful dry and boring.  Why should a daily newspaper devote precious column inches to explaining a premise that is at its best tedious, and at its worse, a maddeningly counter-intuitive and downright unpopular challenge to conventional wisdom?

Thus I was pleasantly surprised to read Seattle Times economic columnist Jon Talton this morning proclaim that now is the “Time for state to discuss taxes despite difficulties.”

It’s quixotic — or deranged. Such are most of the reactions, depending on political persuasion, to state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown’s idea of an income tax on high-wage earners to help fund education.

Huh.  Sounds like Talton is calling out his own editorial board.  But…

Even so, Brown’s proposal ought to open an important conversation about taxes and the state’s future competitiveness. It’s one that’s difficult to have without arousing partisan passions, cooked statistics and charges of socialism or a sales-tax-driven war on the poor. It’s one we should have nevertheless.

There… was that so hard?

As Talton points out, Washington’s individual and corporate tax “burden” remains relatively low while our per capita income remains high, and our heavy reliance on the sales tax leaves us with the most regressive tax structure in the nation.  Talton also peeks beneath the robes of the rarely challenged orthodoxy that inexorably links tax rates to private sector competitiveness.

Some of the states with the highest tax rates and tax burdens (taxes paid divided by income) are also the richest and most economically powerful.

These include New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and California. Some states with very low taxes also suffer from limited economies and a relative lack of well-paid jobs. This doesn’t mean that high taxes can’t ultimately hurt competitiveness, only that reflexive tax cutting is no panacea, either. Rather, tax policy seems to be one element in a state’s overall competitive DNA.

Our problem, as Talton explains, is that despite such facts, talk of higher taxes is generally political suicide.

Anti-tax activists have been effective in portraying government as always bloated and inefficient. This sidesteps answering what roles government must do well and which cost money to enhance competitiveness in a complex, global economy.

That’s all I’ve been asking for:  a public conversation on the proper size and scope of government, and how best to adequately, sustainably and fairly pay for those services and infrastructure investments we collectively want and need.  With rare exceptions like Talton’s column, we aren’t getting that conversation in our local media, and apart from Brown and a handful of other legislators, we aren’t getting that conversation from our elected officials either.

I’m not saying it’s an easy conversation, or one that won’t come with political costs.  But in the long run, it’s a conversation we can’t afford to avoid.

It looks like the Bush Administration’s war on terror continues.

UPDATE: I want to congratulate commenter Rick D, who has officially broken the world record for stupidity in the comment thread down below. When claiming that Obama hasn’t released his birth certificate is only the 3rd or 4th stupidest thing you’ve said in a comment thread, you’ve accomplished something special.

I think Jon Stewart had a pretty good take on these nutballs.