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Juan Cole is skeptical about the results of the Iranian election yesterday, pointing out what appear to be some rather glaring red flags. The big question that’s on a lot of people’s minds is the effect that Obama is having on this and other recent elections in the Middle East. I’ve been fairly pleased with Obama’s approach to the region so far. His speech in Cairo was well-timed and struck the right chords. But I also tend to agree with Josh that it’s wrong to give him all the credit for Hezbollah’s poor showing in the Lebanese elections earlier in the week.

That said, I disagree with this:

Let’s rewind with a little context: Contrary to all conventional wisdom (even conventional wisdom in Israel), Israel’s war on Hezbollah in 2006 was actually successful. It was not, as everyone reported, a sort of mini-Vietnam for the Israeli army. I’ve been arguing this for a while. And anticipating Hezbollah’s troubles.

Check it out: Israel routed Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon.

I think this AP report provides better context for what happened there. While the author contends that Obama actually did weigh on the minds of Lebanese voters, concerns over Iranian influence were the main impetus behind the rejection of Hezbollah.

Lebanon is a nation used to being caught in the middle of larger battles, between Israel, the U.S., Syria and Iran. The Lebanese Civil War on the 80s splintered the country into a number of factions, many of which became specifically aligned with one or more of those outside powers. The recent trend in Lebanese politics has been to oppose whichever faction appears to be taking the hardest line within those larger conflicts and raising the temperature in Beirut. When that faction was Israel in 2006, Hezbollah gained in strength. Today, that faction appears to be Iran. And while I agree that Obama’s speech in Cairo didn’t necessarily directly inspire Lebanese voters to vote one way or another, the perception of change that Obama’s election has brought to how the U.S. will deal with the region most likely altered the perceptions of who many Lebanese see as a greater threat to their stability.

UPDATE: Gary Sick has an interesting post on what’s happening in Iran.

TPM links to a KOMO story at the P-I web site concerning the arrest of an Everett woman accused in a double homicide in Arizona. Turns out she’s described as a leader of the “Minutemen American Defense.” From KOMO via the P-I:

An outspoken anti-immigration activist from Everett has been arrested in Arizona in connection to a deadly home invasion robbery.

Shawna Forde, the executive director of the Minutemen American Defense, is one of three accused in the shooting deaths of 29-year-old Raul Flores and his daughter, 9-year-old Brisenia Flores, at their home in Arivaca, Ariz., a town 10 miles north of the Mexican border.

Two others – 34-year-old Jason Bush and 42-year-old Albert Gaxiola – were arrested. All three have been charged with two counts of first-degree murder, one count of first-degree burglary and one count of aggravated assault.

According to the Pima County Sheriff’s Office, two men and a woman posing as police officers forced their way into the Flores ‘ home in the middle of the night on May 30.

It is not known exactly what transpired next, but Raul Flores and his daughter were shot and killed. The girl’s mother was wounded and is recovering in a local hospital, deputies said.

The Everett Herald ran a piece about Forde in February after she made allegations that Mexican drug cartel figures were somehow connected to the shooting of her ex-husband, but it’s fair to say the article casts serious doubt on that contention. There’s also some interesting um, other stuff. From the Everett Herald on Feb. 22, 2009:

Exactly what Forde does on the border is unclear. She reports being interviewed about immigration issues by dozens of journalists; a handful of articles appear to have been published.

Her Web site features shaky videos, often focusing on the garbage left in the desert by people sneaking into the country. On one film clip, Forde claims to have found a place in the desert where human smugglers regularly rape women. On another, she suggests border agents have found bodies of drug smugglers whom she claims were duped by terrorists into carrying radioactive materials into the U.S., hidden inside loads of marijuana.

On the video, Forde says the smugglers’ bodies can’t be touched because “the radiation is so heavy (it) will kill you on contact.”

Forde is circumspect when questioned about how her group works with law enforcement agencies. In the interview at The Herald, she described presenting what she called “after-action reports” to a man she declined to identify, except to say he is a former employee of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Very sad. Obviously law abiding groups that want to change immigration laws cannot be held accountable for what appear to the heinous actions of a lunatic, but it’s also clear that the lunatics are acting out with increased frequency right now.

What’s also sad is that there are no easy answers. The First Amendment gives us all very broad freedoms, especially when it comes to political speech, meaning that all citizens need to evaluate the credibility of those who speak and the types of persons with whom they associate. Who would imagine that people who run around in the desert playing army would have mental issues?

The responsible thing to do right now is decry violence. The killings of a doctor, military recruiters, a museum guard and a nine year old child are reprehensible examples of deranged losers using politics as a cover for their inability to function in the world, and reasonable Americans are sickened by the current outbreak of violence.

It’s been pointed out that I’ve been imprecise in my use of the term “primary challenge.”

Of course, that’s old language, that doesn’t really fit Washington’s ridiculous top-two primary reality, especially not in districts like those here in Seattle, where one party or the other is impossibly uncompetitive.  Challenge a Seattle incumbent in the August primary and it’s really just an exhibition game, that at most suggests a likely outcome for the November general election.

So I guess what we’re really talking about here is an intraparty challenge, in which a Democratic incumbent is challenged by a fellow Democrat. Same idea, different words.

Speaking of which, the results of the House intraparty challenge elimination round poll have so far been unsurprising.  Of course, the overwhelming winner (loser?) thus far is Frank Chopp, though as speaker, he’s not exactly a ripe target for a serious challenge. But the next three highest vote getters are also the three names I’ve heard mentioned most often as being in need of an early retirement.

We’ll see if that holds up once all the votes are tallied.

From the AP:

RICHLAND — Workers cleaning up the Hanford nuclear reservation are going after radioactive wasp nests.

I think I’ve seen this movie, and it didn’t turn out well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yk2snZPsjk[/youtube]

(And there are some 60 other media clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

Susan Hutchison is clearly running as an anti-tax candidate for King County executive (I won’t say “the” anti-tax candidate, as Fred Jarrett and Ross Hunter seem to be vying for that vote as well), what with her vague, nonspecific talk about “bloated government” and the county needing to live “within its means.” And exactly what experience does she have cutting all that waste, fraud and abuse?

Hutchison said she solved a significant budget shortfall as chairwoman of the Seattle Symphony board of directors. “I solve problems and I fix things,” she said, “and King County needs a fix.”

Except… she helped solve the Symphony’s budget shortfall largely by raising more money. That’s what not-for-profit arts board members do.

Jesus… you’d think somebody might want to ask a follow up question or do a tad of digging before reprinting her rhetorical bullshit unchallenged.

I’ve apparently pissed off more than a few Democratic Party establishment types in recent weeks. Oh, it’s not my reaction to the past legislative session that’s causing consternation; most rank and file Democrats were disappointed, if not downright disgusted at the cowardly all-cuts budget, and leadership’s generally pro-business/anti-progressive agenda. Some legislators too.

No, apparently, where I’ve crossed the line, is not in criticizing the Democratic caucus, but rather in suggesting what I think is an obvious solution: specifically, that if we’re not being adequately served by our Democratic legislators, perhaps it’s kinda, sorta, maybe time to replace them.

Judging from some of the comments and emails I’ve received, the mere suggestion of primarying a Democratic incumbent in a safe Democratic district brands me as traitor, a blowhard, an idiot or some combination thereof. Yeah, the establishment hoo-hahs love me when I’m raking muck on Republicans or doing my best to squash the conservative frame on some manufactroversy or another. But attempt to be taken seriously on a policy issue or dare to dip our toes into electoral politics and… well… we lowly bloggers are scolded to know our place.

The irony is, we all know there’s a fair share of deadwood in the Seattle delegation, along with a handful legislators who simply aren’t as progressive as their constituents on a number of important issues, such as pay day lending, the homebuyers bill of rights, tax restructuring, and more. Indeed, start this conversation at nearly any political gathering, and the same names keep popping up again and again, the usual suspects of Democratic incumbents who deserve a serious, well-financed primary challenge, and who just might not survive should they face one.

So why don’t I name names, as some in the comment threads have challenged me to do?  Oh God, I’m tempted, but coming from a lowly blogger like me it would only come off as a personal hit list, and do little more than earn me animosity from those legislators on it, some of whom I personally like, even if I think it past time for them to move on and give somebody else a chance at getting stuff done before Republican Rob McKenna seizes the line-item veto pen.

No, the names have to be named by you, so that everybody knows that everybody knows who the weak links in the Seattle delegation truly are. And that’s why starting today I’m launching a series of polls to enable you in our local Democratic community to name these names yourself, and help pick the Seattle legislators most in need of a primary challenge.

Our first poll, now live at the top-right corner of the home page, pits all 12 House incumbents from Seattle’s 11th, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd and 46th Legislative Districts against each other in an open primary. Feel free to vote for more than one; the top House vote-getters will face off against each other in a “loser takes all” general election of sorts, as will the four Seattle state Senators up for reelection in 2010.

Oh, and don’t everybody just vote for Frank out of a sense of retribution; pick the reps who you genuinely think are most out of step with their district and/or have proven themselves least capable of bringing home the bacon for Seattle and the progressive community at large.  And as a tie-breaker, I’d also suggest considering which incumbents would be most vulnerable to a serious challenge, should one materialize.

There might not be much room to elect more Democrats to the Washington state legislature, but after this last session, I think we can all agree that we could certainly elect better.

Political recluse and King County Executive wannabe Susan Hutchison finally showed up at a candidate forum, though apart from boldly vowing to fix county government by cutting waste, fraud and abuse, she was by most accounts, short on details:

In a conversation with reporters afterwards, she said more of her positions would be known in the coming weeks.

You know, after her positions have become known to her.

Geez.

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) compared President Obama’s actions in the auto bailouts to Vladimir Putin. “They said, ‘Set aside the rule of law, let’s strip secured creditors, bondholders, of their rights. Take them away outside of the bankruptcy process and give them to the political cronies and the auto workers’ unions,'” said Cantor. “It’s almost like looking at Putin’s Russia,” he added. “You want to reward your political friends at the expense of the certainty of law?”

It must be rough being one of the richest people in Congress.

Cantor’s net worth comes largely from dozens of investments in mutual funds and individual stocks. Cantor’s wife draws salaries from a New York bank and the Virginia College Savings Plan, as well as director fees from Media General Inc. and Domino’s Pizza.

But Cantor’s net worth has suffered along with other members who invest in the stock market. For example, Cantor invested between $1,000 and $15,000 in General Motors on June 4, 2008, when the stock was trading at $17.01. On Wednesday, General Motors stock closed at $1.45.

This is Republican logic for you: “we ruined the economy, and even though we’re still rich we’re not as rich as we used to be, therefore Obama is a socialist.”

Up is down, etc.

The New York Times reports on a CDC study concerning the most common sources of food poisoning.

Poultry was the most commonly identified source of food poisoning in the United States in 2006, followed by leafy vegetables and fruits and nuts, according to a report released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It sounds like serious efforts are underway to improve things:

A bill that would substantially reform the food safety program at the Food and Drug Administration edged a step closer to a vote on Wednesday during a markup session at the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health. A companion measure is being considered in the Senate. Margaret A. Hamburg, the F.D.A. commissioner, said last week that she supported the legislation, although she had asked for some changes.

After the nightmare of the Bush administration, it’s about time government got back to performing basic public health and safety functions with renewed vigor. We shouldn’t even need to be doing this one-hundred years or so after Upton Sinclair published The Jungle, but that’s what neo-liberalism wrought.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5-mX1OLdOs[/youtube]

I’ll just watch the river flow.

Lots of medical marijuana news recently. Here’s a recap:

– Andy Hobbs writes in the Federal Way Mirror about the shortcomings of our state’s medical marijuana law along with the situation that patients and providers find themselves in as a result. There will be a part 2 posted later. UDPATE: Here’s part 2.

– The Tri-Cities Herald printed an interesting editorial suggesting that the way to solve Washington’s medical marijuana supply problems is to have the police supply patients with marijuana confiscated through drug raids. As Russ Belville points out, this is not a new idea, and it’s one that has been rejected by police agencies. It’s also not a very good idea in the first place. Medical marijuana patients should be getting marijuana that’s being grown by people who know what they’re doing, not from the police evidence locker where they can’t verify the age, purity, strain, etc.

The main obstacle to states establishing these kinds of distribution systems has been the federal government. That’s the reason why California’s loosely regulated system of dispensaries had been so loosely regulated. If a city or county documented a bunch of information about their operations, the DEA would simply obtain those records and shut down the operation. Any state that tried too hard to set up their own system put themselves in a position where the DEA and DOJ could quickly dismantle it.

But the entire dynamic may be changing. Attorney General Holder reiterated that the Obama Administration intends to respect state laws on medical marijuana, meaning that states should be free to establish their own systems for growing and distributing marijuana to patients without federal interference. New Mexico has been at the forefront of this, trying since 2007 to establish state authorized providers. Even with those reassurances from the Obama Administration, the initial state-authorized dispensary in Santa Fe was nervous about being named in news reports for fear that the DEA will move to shut them down.

– In Rhode Island this week, their state Senate voted 30-2 to legalize medical marijuana dispensaries. The answer to the dilemma raised in the Herald editorial is to move in the same direction as Rhode Island and New Mexico and establish more secure avenues for allowing medical marijuana patients to obtain their medicine from state-approved growers who grow specifically for patients. That the Rhode Island legislature can vote nearly unanimously to move in this direction while the Washington legislature is doing absolutely nothing about our clearly broken system just re-emphasizes the fact that we have a testicular deficiency in Olympia.

– UCLA-based anti-drug researcher Dr. Donald Tashkin now supports the legalization of marijuana. Tashkin is most well-known for conducting a study funded by the National Institute of Health, where he hypothesized that there’d be a definitive link between marijuana smoking and lung cancer, but discovered that there was “no association and even a suggestion of some protective effect”. Caren Woodson from Americans for Safe Access, a medical marijuana advocacy group in California, writes about some recent studies done on the use of marijuana for alleviating the pain associated with HIV/AIDS.

– Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty vetoed what would have been the most restrictive state medical marijuana law in the country. The legislature approved the bill after hearing some compelling testimony from patients and relatives. It’s been speculated that Pawlenty’s decision was made with an eye for a Presidential run in 2012, but it’s not entirely clear that vetoing the bill was the smarter move when nearly 3/4 of the American public supports medical marijuana laws. Instead, it may be a good indication of how detached the groupthink of the Republican leadership is from the reality of what the average American cares about.

– California dispensary operator Charles Lynch was sentenced to a year in prison. Many had hoped that since dispensary owners like Lynch are no longer being targeted under the Obama Administration that they’d support Judge George Wu’s request for leniency from the mandatory minimum sentencing restrictions.

As Publicola reported yesterday, Dow Constantine went on the offensive in the King County Executive race (or at least as offensive as the mild-mannered councilman can get), insisting that the politically reclusive Susan Hutchison has “an obligation to voters” to explain her positions to voters.

Calling her “pleasant” but “far to the right of the electorate of King County,” Constantine said, “that’s fine, everybody has a right to their political opinions, but if you’re holding yourself out as a candidate for the highest office in King County, you have an obligation to voters to tell them where you stand.”

Constantine wanted to know where Hutchison stood on a women’s right to choose—which he said was a relevant issue for King County Executive because King County Health runs health clinics, like one in White Center, that counsel low-income women on pregnancy issues.

Not surprisingly, Hutchison took umbrage at Constantine citing her many conservative Republican bona fides, loudly complaining to the Seattle P-I’s Chris Grygiel:

“This is inexcusable. In sum total he’s accused me of being an extremist and I’m a moderate.”

But when asked what she would say to voters to demonstrate her self-proclaimed moderation, Hutchison demurred:

“I don’t have to say anything to the voters,” said Hutchison, a long-time local television personality. “They’ve known me for 20 years on the air. They’ve known me for another seven years as someone who has served in the community.”

Really, Susan? You’re running for countywide office… essentially the equivalent of being the governor of a small state… and you honestly believe that you don’t have to say anything to the voters? That’s your final answer?

On second thought, perhaps holing Hutchison up in an undisclosed location is in fact the best political strategy her Republican handlers can reasonably devise, considering the arrogant, haughty and uninformed candidate they’re working with.

The bidness guys ‘n gals are truly excited about potentially reducing health care costs that affect their bottom line. Well, not really.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it will spend $100 million in an effort to stem the “rapidly growing influence of government over private-sector activity,” in a major new move by the powerful business group to counter the Obama administration’s regulatory agenda.

Because regulation would lead to horrible things like rationing, high overhead costs and bureaucracy, none of which exist in the current system. Most private insurance plans are simple, comprehensive and cover pre-existing conditions and specialist visits with little or no hassle.

Obama could come up with a proposal that costs them each one cent per year, drops manna from the skies and gives them eternal youth and three hour and fifty nine minute erections, and they would still hate him because manna represents “socialism.”

Tribes must stick together, no matter the little kiddies with teeth rotting out and old folks losing their houses after illnesses. Neo-liberalism may be dead as a doornail, but until the very serious people who destroyed the economy actually understand what has happened, which will be never, moving forward will be a slow slog.

You wouldn’t want to wind up with a crazy-quilt, nonsensical insurance system that places arbitrary hurdles in front of people, that would be terrible.

The World Health Organization declared a swine flu pandemic today, raising the global H1N1 alert level to six, on a six-point scale. It’s been 41 years since the last pandemic, the Hong Kong flu, killed about a million people worldwide.

While WHO is urging people not to panic, emphasizing that the declaration represents the virus’s global spread, not it’s severity, DemFromCT (in a lengthy post on Daily Kos that is really worth the read) argues that we should take full advantage of this teaching moment:

While the media includes “don’t panic’ overtly or subtly in every message they put out, complacency is a bigger danger than panic, and the right thing to do is to keep talking about it and bore the hell out of everyone until it’s routine to wash your hands, cover your cough and stay home for seven days from onset (or 24 hours of no fever if longer than seven days) before you go back to work or send your kids out to infect everyone else. And if you think ahead, you’ll stock up on what you need to stay in the house for a week (or two) in case you’re too sick to go out.

Even if, as it appears at the moment, H1N1 proves no more severe than the typical seasonal flu, its novel make up gives it the potential to infect many more people. Seasonal flu typically kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide; if the number of flu cases were to double or triple, the number of fatalities would rise proportionately.

Wash your hands.