HorsesAss.Org

Just like the Seattle Times, I too have budgeting advice for state House Speaker Frank Chopp:

With revenue forecasts showing no sign of recovery, a Republican majority in the US House virtually assuring the cutting off of federal money, and I-1053’s ridiculous requirements back in place, our state budget is now what economists technically refer to as “totally fucked.” So hell yeah, Frank, give the Republicans what they asked for: dismantle the welfare state and finally let Republican voters in rural Washington pay for their own roads, their own healthcare and their own goddamn schools.

Read the whole thing over on Slog.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at about 8:00 pm. Stop by even earlier and enjoy some dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 250 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Standing in the security line at Sea-Tac around the time Obama was elected in 2008, I thought that it would be a good indication of how much actual “hope and change” we’d be getting if the Obama Administration made some common sense changes to TSA procedures upon assuming office. It’s fairly well known that things like removing shoes and taking liquid items away doesn’t make much sense in any risk mitigation sense, and a new regime that billed itself as being more wedded to sound science than its predecessor would theoretically consider such changes to be no-brainers. Instead, we’ve continued to slide backwards in this respect, to the point of complete absurdity.

Our supposed national inclination towards personal liberty is nothing more than a mirage. What makes me even more convinced of this is that over 80% of the American public supports these body scans, while only 44% (Nate Silver estimates it’s far less than that) of Americans have even flown on an airplane in the past year. That means that there’s a significant number of Americans who never even face the miniscule risk of terrorism on an airplane who still insist that people’s naked images should be viewed by a government employee (or be sexually molested by one) before one can board a plane.

As Silver also points out in this post, people who travel most often are the most dissatisfied with airport security, and that was long before the porno-scanners were put into use. This seems perfectly normal to us, but it shouldn’t be. The people who should be most satisfied with a system of protecting air travelers are those most at risk from the security threats to air travelers. In a country where personal liberty is valued at some level, the people who aren’t at risk should be the least likely to go along with draconian security measures. Instead, they appear to be the most likely.

The brewing backlash against this insanity is good news, but the fact that it devolved to this point before people got this angry says a lot about how much we actually value freedom and how willing we’ve been to have blind faith in our government’s ability to “protect” us.

Two weeks after election day there are still two legislative races that remain too close to call, though the Republican has got the edge in both of them: the 41st LD Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Randy Gordon and faux-moderate Steve Litzow, and the the 25th LD House race between incumbent Democrat Dawn Morrell and proto-fascist hate-talker Hans Zeiger.

After today’s results, Litzow leads by 214 and Zeiger leads by only 36… both within the automatic recount margin. But I’d be pleasantly surprised if either Dem pulls this out.

Oh, and by the way, had the ballot deadline been received by election day instead of postmarked by election day, we still wouldn’t know the final result any sooner.

The state Senate Democratic Caucus just released its recommendations for committee chairs, elevating Seattle Sen. Ed Murray to the top position on the powerful Ways and Means Committee. And according to a statement released through the caucus, this leaves Ed very, very humble.

“I’m humbled to be considered for the role of Ways & Means chair.

I don’t come with any illusions about the challenges facing our state budget. But I believe my experience working across the aisle to write a budget well prepares me for the significant task ahead.”

I dunno, Ed’s never struck me as particularly humble, but he is the kinda a guy who will occasionally show up at Drinking Liberally and argue with dirty bloggers, so I’m cheered by the news.

So congrats Ed. And if you stop by DL tonight and join us for a frosty brew, I’d be happy to tell you how to solve the budget crisis.

With the public battle over King County’s new budget coming to a head just as word came of an agreement to acquire a controversial Maury Island gravel mine and preserve it as parkland, it didn’t take much to anticipate the anti-tax/anti-government crowd’s reaction: “How could we possibly be spending taxpayer money acquiring more parkland at the same time we’re slashing the Sheriff’s office by another 10 percent?”

Well… the Seattle Times explains:

WILLING seller, eager buyer and available, dedicated funds to make it happen. That is the dynamic behind King County’s plans to buy, preserve and protect 235 acres and a mile of Puget Sound shoreline on Maury Island.

[…] State Rep. Sharon Nelson, an island resident, secured $14.5 million in ASARCO pollution settlement funds. The King County Conservation Futures Fund, for just such purchases, is paying $19.1 million. Another $2.4 million is a credit the owners accepted in exchange for extension of an existing mining lease on the island.

The emphasis on the word “dedicated” is mine, but it gets to the heart of why I just roll my eyes whenever I see others roll their eyes about spending billions of dollars on a tunnel or something at the same time we’re slashing spending on this or that. See, government budgets are a helluva lot more complicated than, say, King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn makes them sound when he storms out of budget negotiations in a fit of mathlessness.

And that’s why I also roll my eyes when I hear Republicans talking about how easy it would be for them to fix our fiscal crisis, if only they were in complete control.

Speaking of 2012, if you thought this year’s election was intriguing, just wait for the fun we have in store, when a depleted political bench vies for a smorgasbord of tantalizing open seats over the next few years.

Let’s start at the top, where every indication is that Gov. Chris Gregoire will most definitely not run for a third term, setting up the long anticipated showdown between Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee and Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna. Other incumbents considering abandoning their offices for a shot at the governor’s mansion include Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, and nominally Democratic State Auditor Brian Sonntag, but Inslee and McKenna are just about sure things.

That of course leaves their seats open, which at this point has the AG’s race looking like a runoff between two King County Council members, Democrat Bob Ferguson and Republican Reagan Dunn, the winner of which leaves his seat open for the taking. As for Inslee’s 1st CD seat, depending on its boundaries after redistricting, that might be an attractive target for Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon, and any number of legislative and council incumbents of both parties.

And speaking of congressional seats, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect at least one or two more to come open in 2012. No doubt 74-year-old Rep. Jim McDermott (WA-07) was rejuvenated by a stint in the majority these past four years, but nobody would be surprised to hear him announce his retirement… an announcement that itself could open up more than a few legislative seats amongst the horde of Congressional wannabes. Meanwhile, Rep. Dave Reichert very well may find his Auburn home outside the borders of a redrawn 8th CD, perhaps pulling Dunn from an AG run, and/or perhaps setting off further musical chairs down ticket. And don’t forget the newly created WA-10.

So in 2012 alone we could see competitive races for open seats for Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor, WA-01, WA-07, WA-08 and WA-10, not to mention a half dozen or so legislative seats opening up due to incumbents looking to advance. And this in turn will likely open up some council and/or executive seats for 2013. Throw US Sen. Maria Cantwell and President Barack Obama into the 2012 mix, and it’s gonna be a heck of a few years.

Republicans nationally have a lot to crow about after their big Election Day victories, but here in Washington state… not so much.

In what was arguably the most pro-Republican/anti-Democratic political climate since 1994, WA GOPers only managed to pick up three, maybe four seats in the state Senate, all of them against freshman incumbents in traditionally Republican-leaning districts the Dems had just recently captured during the Big Blue Wave of 2006. In the state House, Republican’s did manage to knock off a couple long term incumbents, but still only captured four or five seats, barely eating into the Dems’ huge majority.

But as disappointed as over-exuberant R’s might be by their candidates’ underperformance in in the Legislature, where Dems still firmly control both houses, their party’s performance at the top of the ticket was downright dismal. Once the dust has settled and the final votes are tallied, Democratic incumbent US Sen. Patty Murray will have defeated three-time Republican loser Dino Rossi by a nearly five point margin, while for all their talk of a 1994-like wave, the Republicans’ only US House pickup will be an open seat in WA-03… a seat the Dems were almost certainly going to lose in 2012, after it’s inevitably redrawn as a strongly Republican-leaning district.

In fact, the biggest upset of the election season went against Republicans in the putatively nonpartisan State Supreme Court race, where unofficial Democratic favorite Charlie Wiggins defeated unofficial Republican favorite Richard Sanders in a rare unseating of an incumbent justice.

All in all, considering the circumstances and the expectations, not a bad election year at all for Washington Dems. Which means it wasn’t all that good an election for Washington State Republican Party chair Luke Esser, who as a result, now faces a very serious challenger from former KVI talk radio host Kirby Wilbur.

Yeah, I know, Esser is Rob McKenna’s political altar boy, and it seems unlikely the Republican establishment would want to cross McKenna by ousting Esser just as the two were preparing to launch McKenna’s 2012 gubernatorial campaign. But with the rise of Clint Didier and the “Tea Party” movement, it’s not at all clear that the Republican establishment is still in firm control of the Republican Party.

See, the problem for Esser is, even the Republican Party is somewhat small “d” democratic when it comes to electing a chair, and if the teahadists have managed to take over enough local committees, he could be in for a real fight, especially against a well known opponent like Wilbur, who has long been active in party affairs, yet convincingly manages to strike that tone of ideological purity the teabaggers demand.

And it’s not like the WSRP doesn’t have a history of punishing its chair for disappointing results at the polls. Just ask Chris Vance and Diane Tebelius.

So if Esser isn’t already looking over his shoulder, he should.

– Vivian McPeak on cannabis and cancer.

– Glenn Greenwald on Obama’s 180 on trying Khalid Sheikh Muhammad in Federal court.

– Adam Serwer explains how Eric Cantor is accusing himself of committing a felony.

– Steve Elliott writes about an unscrupulous medical marijuana dispensary owner in Tacoma. This man was in the audience at the CDC’s forum with 36th LD Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles and when given a chance to ask a question of the Senator, he ranted a bit about how government regulation would doom his business. No kidding.

Last week’s contest was won by uptown. It was the center of Colchester, England.

This week’s is related to a TV show or a movie. Good luck!

Job 1
Now there was a day when the sons of God came to present themselves before the LORD, and Satan came also among them.

And the LORD said unto Satan, Whence comest thou? Then Satan answered the LORD, and said, From going to and fro in the earth, and from walking up and down in it.

And the LORD said unto Satan, Hast thou considered my servant Job, that there is none like him in the earth, a perfect and an upright man, one that feareth God, and escheweth evil?

Then Satan answered the LORD, and said, Doth Job fear God for nought?

Hast not thou made an hedge about him, and about his house, and about all that he hath on every side? thou hast blessed the work of his hands, and his substance is increased in the land.

But put forth thine hand now, and touch all that he hath, and he will curse thee to thy face.

And the LORD said unto Satan, Behold, all that he hath is in thy power; only upon himself put not forth thine hand. So Satan went forth from the presence of the LORD.

Discuss.

This weekend is the 10th anniversary of one of my favorite sites, TPM. Its format has grown from a simple one-person blog to a full-fledged news site, and they’ve done a good job of changing the perceptions of how news sites can be done. Joshua Green has a fun recounting of the early days of the site.

Justice Richard Sanders has kinda-sorta conceded his race to challenger Charlie Wiggins, after yesterday’s tally left him trailing by 5,787 votes. Writing in an email to supporters, Sanders explained that “campaign experts say that we are unlikely to make up that difference as the counties finish their tally over the next few days.”

And to what does Sanders attribute his upset loss?

In an interview Friday night, an emotional Sanders blamed The Seattle Times for what he called certain defeat, saying the newspaper unfairly portrayed him as believing African Americans are more prone to commit crimes.

Yeah, as I wrote over on Slog, the Times pulling its endorsement likely was the straw that broke the camel’s back. But you’ve got to give credit to the Stranger too, for setting the frame on Sanders. Indeed, you gotta wonder if the Times would have reported on or reacted to Sanders’ comments quite the same way if not for the other Sanders’ devastating expose?

And in case you’re wondering about the numbers, and why “election experts” believe a 5,787 vote gap out of nearly 2.5 million ballots cast is an insurmountable lead, well, there are now less than 93,000 ballots remaining, more than half of them in King County, where Wiggins is currently leading by a 58.6 percent margin. If you just project county-by-county based on cumulative margins, Wiggins would end up with about a 9,800 vote lead; if you project based on the post-election-day trend, that lead jumps to over 12,000.

That’s not much different from the projection I made, back when I called the race on Tuesday.

(There are more than thirty links to media from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

King County Councilman Reagan Dunn is running for Washington State Attorney General in 2012 (unless, possibly, redistricting or Reichert’s retirement leaves an open seat in WA-08). So what kind of bold leadership can we expect from Dunn? Not much.