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What are some of the conversations you are likely to hear at the Montlake Ale House tonight? Let’s see…

• Gregoire vetoes the medical-marijuana bill
• The first poll of the 2012 gubernatorial election is out
• OBL is dead
• And Rep. Dennis Kucinich is coming to Washington State?!?

So please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 223 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Just a quick follow-up to yesterday’s post on the request for Rob McKenna to weigh in with his legal opinion on the recently vetoed medical marijuana bill. I just spoke with Rep. Roger Goodman who tells me that Congressman Jay Inslee will be sending a similar letter to Attorney General Eric Holder.

UPDATE: Dominic Holden has the most detailed explanation of why Gregoire’s partial veto is such a disaster. This doesn’t just leave us where we were before. This removes all of the gray area wiggle-room that allowed for progressive prosecutors like Dan Satterberg to allow for some dispensaries to quietly operate. Now, those dispensaries are clearly in violation of state law, meaning that thousands of medical marijuana patients who had access to medicine before this bill passed are likely fucked now.

I met up with Douglas Hiatt for a little bit yesterday afternoon, and he told a story of a woman who once had to rely on her teenage grandson to get marijuana for her at his high school. Governor Gregoire’s veto puts us back in that situation. And it’s not clear she has any interest in fixing it.

A new King 5/SurveyUSA poll of the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race has Attorney General Rob McKenna (R-WA) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) by +7 (48% to 41%). A match-up with Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) has Reichert slightly ahead of Inslee, 46% to 44%.

The poll also matched up Gov. Christine Gregoire (D-WA). (Right…Like that’s gonna happen.) She’s down 12% to McKenna and 4% to Reichert.

The poll sampled 610 registered voters and has a margin of error of about 4%.

I decided to grease the gears and wind-up the ol’ calculating machine to tabulate some probabilistic outcomes from these poll data. I’ve posted these Monte Carlo analysis on HA for many years now, but in case you want more details, see that (somewhat outdated) FAQ. Here are results for the Inslee match-ups.

In the Inslee versus McKenna race, a million simulated elections has Inslee winning 95,892 times to McKenna’ s 898,897 wins. That is, if the election had been held yesterday, Inslee would have a 9.6% chance of winning, to McKenna’s 90.4% chance. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

That’s a lot of red.

Less so in the Inslee versus Reichert match-up. Inslee takes 350,198 of the simulated elections to Reichert’s 638,521. That is, Inslee would have about a 35.4% chance of beating Reichert in an election held now, based only on the evidence collected by the poll. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

So…is Washington going all Wisconsin on us? Are we going to get our own replay of the radical right-wing War on Workers, War on Women, War on Railroads, War on Health Care, and relaxation of child labor laws, seen in other states with newly elected Republican governors? It could be, but not really based on these polls. They are taken way, way too early to have any predictive power for an election held in a year and a half.

If there is any message here, it is that its never too early to start working for the candidate that most closely reflects your vision of what Washington should be.

Fifteen State House Representatives, led by Roger Goodman, have sent Attorney General Rob McKenna a letter asking him to weigh in with his opinion on the recent furor over Governor Gregoire’s partial veto of the medical marijuana bill. The legislators would like to know McKenna’s official opinion on the following three things:

1) Where the federal Controlled Substances Act prohibits state activities that create a “positive conflict” between state and federal laws (see 21 U.S.C. Section 903), would the exercise of our state’s (and its instrumentalities’) regulatory, licensing and zoning powers related to cannabis cultivation, processing and dispensing, as set forth in SB 5073, create a “positive conflict” with federal law, even where no state employee would be required to engage in specific activities that are prohibited by the Controlled Substances Act?

2) What is the likelihood, in consideration of current federal policy respecting individuals whose actions are “in clear and unambiguous compliance with existing state laws,” (see so-called “Holder Memorandum” of 10/29/09) that Washington state employees would be subject to federal criminal liability for activities to implement the cannabis cultivation, processing and dispensing system as set forth in SB 5073, where no such comparable federal criminal liability has ever been attached to any state employees in the past and where state employees’ activities in this case would fall far short of “aiding and abetting” the violation of federal law?

3) How enforceable is Washington’s medical cannabis law in general and what is the permissible extent of Washington’ police power to protect the health, welfare and safety of the people in the face of the absolute federal prohibition of cannabis?

The first two parts of this letter focus on the main excuse Governor Gregoire has used to justify her partial veto. She continues to claim – despite UW law professor Hugh Spitzer’s dismissals – that state employees are at risk of arrest for regulating the industry.

It’s been brought up several times that other states regulate marijuana production distribution without any problem. This is far from secret. In fact, in a recent episode of CNBC’s “Marijuana Inc” series, you can see one of those state employees at work. Go to the 10:30 mark of the following video to see a Colorado state employee – a former narcotics officer, no less – doing exactly what Christine Gregoire says her state employees will get arrested if they do.

In response to the growing awareness that Gregoire’s stated reasons for the partial veto are fiction, she’s now claiming that the policy under Obama has changed recently. But as Dominic Holden points out, Western Washington’s U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan disputes that. The Obama Administration won’t go after folks who are in compliance with state law. Goodman’s letter to McKenna is an attempt to have the Attorney General weigh in to provide some clarity in this mess.

UPDATE: Dominic Holden has more analysis at Slog.

Juan Cole has a tremendous post on the life and death of Osama Bin Laden, and how we can use his death as way to continue to make progress against Middle East extremism:

The Arab Spring has demonstrated that the Arab masses yearn for liberty, not thuggish repression, for life, not death and destruction, for parliamentary democracy, not theocratic dictatorship. Bin Laden was already a dinosaur, a relic of the Cold War and the age of dictators in which a dissident such as he had no place in society and was shunted off to distant, frontier killing fields. The new generation of young Arabs in Egypt and Tunisia has a shot at a decent life. Obama has put the US on the right side of history in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Libya (where I see crowds for the first time in my life waving American flags). People might want a little help from a distance, but they don’t want to see Western troops deployed in fighting units on their soil.

If Obama can get us out of Iraq, and if he can use his good offices to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to lighten up, and if he can support the likely UN declaration of a Palestinian state in September, the US will be in the most favorable position in the Arab world it has had since 1956. And he would go down in history as one of the great presidents. If he tries to stay in Iraq and he takes a stand against Palestine, he risks provoking further anti-American violence. He can be not just the president who killed Bin Laden, but the president who killed the pretexts for radical violence against the US. He can promote the waving of the American flag in major Arab cities. And that would be a defeat and humiliation for Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda more profound than any they could have dreamed.

UPDATE: And on a less serious note, this Washington man finally shaved his beard.

UPDATE 2 [Darryl]: The White House releases some photos of the day’s events from within the White House.

Still waiting for President Obama to speak, but sources tell me that the CIA tracked down Osama bin Laden’s location via his iPhone. Happy “Spring Offensive,” Taliban!

Consider this a Dance on bin Laden’s Grave open thread.

UPDATE:
Not a Predator attack, not renal failure, but a US Special Operations mission (Navy Seals), eight months in the making. Meanwhile, let’s all take a moment to remember the immortal words of former President George W. Bush:

“So I don’t know where he is. You know, I just don’t spend that much time on him. And, again, I don’t know where he is. I — I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.”
— 03/13/2002

Last week’s contest was won by David Aquarius (and thanks to Change in Time for the link). It was the TEPCO building in Tokyo.

Here’s this week’s contest, a random location somewhere in the world. Good luck!

Deuteronomy 28:22
The LORD shall smite thee with a consumption, and with a fever, and with an inflammation, and with an extreme burning, and with the sword, and with blasting, and with mildew; and they shall pursue thee until thou perish.

Discuss.

Maddow: Michigan Gov. thinks Democracy is a problem (via Crooks and Liars).

Thom: Who is organizing the Republican War on Workers?

G.O.P. budget plan having some difficulties at home.

Mitt on Hanging Obama:

Ed and Pap: Boehner is corporate America’s bagman.

GritTV with Thomas Frank: What is happening in the town hall meetings this year?

Ann Telnaes: Privatizing Social Security.

Thom: Republicans organize like KKKrazy to lie.

The Carnival Barker:

• The Donald drops a few F-bombs.
• The Donald’s obscenity laced rant unbleeped (via Crooks and Liars).
• Sam Seder: Trump thinks outsourcing to China is bad…but his own clothing line is made there.
• Stephen: Obamas and The Donald (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ed and Pap: Trump is the New Village Idiot along with his birfer friends
• David Letterman on The Donald (via Slog).
• Young Turks: Another racist comment from Trump.
• John King: Debate with The Donald.
• One proud Carnival Barker (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Liberal Viewer: NBC Trump abortion privacy question made both look bad?
• Tweety: Trump’s sorry-ass voting record.

Cenk: Introducing potential radical G.O.P. candidate Rick Santorum.

Ann Telnaes: Sen. Kyl amends the record…

Oklahoma…apparently NOT OK:

• Young Turks: Oklahoma KKKrazy.
• Oklahoma Rep.: Women and Blacks ‘Lazy’.

White House: West Wing Week.

ONN: Troubled Democrats to undergo party counseling.

Newsy: Ummm…check your watch.

Sam Seder: Atlas bombs.

Long Form Birferism:

• Obama: “Ahh…Here.”
• Sam Seder: The Birth Certificate
• Thom wears a tin foil hat for World Net Daily
• Young Turks: Lawrence O’Donnell gives the Birfer Queen The Boot
• The Froot Loop® Brigade play with their new toy (via Crooks and Liars).
• Mark Fiore: The United States of Reality TV.
• Deathers ask, “Is Obama alive?”
  
• Newsy: Did Obama put the Birfer controversy to rest?
• Thom does Orly Taitz
• Maddow: Donald Trump and the racist roots of ‘birtherism’.
• O’Donnell savages the Birfer Queen.
• Tweety & friends: Obama wins
• Baratunde Thurston’sheartfelt message.
• Ed and Pap: Republicans suffer from shared psychotic disorder.
• Tweety: ‘Pitch-Fork’ White Nationalist Pat Buchanan says ‘Obama is affirmative action all the way’
• Thom goes to town on Philip J. Berg, Birfer Esquire.
• Cenk: Does the G.O.P. have a racism problem?

Sam Seder: Gov. Chris Christie revives the Xanadu Project.

Cenk: G.O.P. = The Gas and Oil Party.

Young Turks: Another racist comment from Trump.

Greenman: Climate denial crock of the week…the “trick”:

Ann Telnaes: The Republican’s trickle down economics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Well, it’s official. Governor Gregoire has vetoed much of the medical marijuana bill, leaving patients and providers across the state at greater risk of arrest and with less access to the medicine that their doctors have authorized them to have. To call this a failure of leadership is an understatement. To knowingly lie in order to promote bad policy is a failure far greater than that of mere leadership. It’s a failure of character and integrity.

I used to be somewhat regretful over my vote for Dino Rossi in 2004. But as clownish and smarmy as Dino Rossi is, having him serve a term as governor would have been a good wake-up call for the progressives in this state. What we’ve just seen from Governor Gregoire is what happens when you blindly support the candidate from your party no matter how incompetent they are. I’m rather convinced at this point that we’d be in a lot better shape on a variety of issues in this state – from education to health care to transportation to tax policy – if Rossi had won that razor-thin election in 2004 and Democrats had a chance to do some soul-searching and run someone who had potential to be a good governor in 2008 (when it was a much easier go for Democrats everywhere).

Kudos, Seattle Times: I didn’t think Civil Disagreements could get sillier. So, it’s a bit surprising that ostensible liberal Joni Balter and ostensible guy who can grow a mustache Ryan Blethen are the new faces of the thing (I guess, maybe Lynn and Bruce are on vacation). Anyhoo, here’s their first, (I guess) one. It’s super current.

Ryan, I was happy to see the Seattle City Council decided to replace the old ticky tacky Fun Forest with the new Dale Chihuly glass art pavillion [sic] at Seattle Center. I know you feel much [sic] differently. Let me make my case.

I know the vote happened on Monday, and this is a weekly feature. So, yes, this is the first time they can talk about the vote that happened. But wouldn’t people who believe they influence the debate want to talk about something before it happened? We’ve known it’s going to happen for quite some time. In fairness, I just wrote about the NLRB’s Boeing decision, so timeliness isn’t everything, but on the other hand fuck Joni Balther and Pedostach (PS, new sitcom: Balter and Pedostach, Cop show, maybe, should be a good pitch meeting). And, yes, now that you mention it, I do have questionable facial hair.

To me, Seattle Center is neither a greensward-like Central Park, nor a place completely frozen in time. The Fun Forest was truly enjoyable while it lasted. But as an attraction, the fun and the forest were slipping; rent became a problem. The whole center needs an upgrade. In the old days, the Center was an eclectic collection of venues and it remains so today. Chihuly glass adds to the ballet, opera, theater, EMP, the fountain and everything else.

Look, it was fun, it was enjoyable, it was great for children. But it’s no glass whatever. Anyway, here’s my favorite paragraph:

I really like Chihuly and am not bothered by the fact that he shows and — gasp, sells — his stuff in Vegas, Venice and many other places. He is a one-of-a-kind talent who has trained many disciples.

Gasp. Straw men feel so offended that he sells his art in Venice! And he’s super unique, but has many, many, many people who he’s trained to be just like him.

Anyway, then Ryan Blethen says Joni is right, but he’ll be sad. Civil Disagreements, folks.

The top-dog Carnival Barker has a little memory problem (via The Smoking Gun):

Despite Donald Trump’s claim this week that he avoided serving in the Vietnam War solely due to a high draft number, Selective Service records show that the purported presidential aspirant actually received a series of student deferments while in college and then topped those off with a medical deferment after graduation that helped spare him from fighting for his country, The Smoking Gun has learned.

And after boasting about his unforgettable memory of the period…

“I actually got lucky because I had a very high draft number. I’ll never forget, that was an amazing period of time in my life.”

He went on to recall, “I was going to the Wharton School of Finance, and I was watching as they did the draft numbers and I got a very, very high number and those numbers never got up to.” The word “deferment” was not mentioned by Trump during his chat with the morning show hosts on WNYW, the Fox affiliate in New York City.

…he got it wrong…. Way wrong.

In fact, the December 1969 draft lottery occurred about 18 months after Trump graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, where he studied business at the Wharton School.

The story of Trump’s numerous deferments is interesting, particularly since he has, apparently, forgotten about them entirely when pressed on his lack of military service. It is his final deferment, disqualification after a medical examination, that caught my attention:

October 15, his classification was switched to 1-Y, which was given to men deemed qualified for military service “only in time of national emergency.”

The 1-Y classification came a month after Trump underwent an “Armed Forces Physical Examination,” according to Selective Service records, which note the results of the exam as “DISQ.”

Here is the extract of Trump’s Selective Classification record provided to The Smoking Gun following their TSG records request (click for larger image):

What caught my attention was the line labeled “Entries from Remarks Column” that says, simply, “YXX”.

Huh? Would that be YXX as in one extra X chromosome? The condition, called Klinefelter syndrome, is not uncommon–it occurs in somewhere from 0.1% to 0.2% of males. Aside from having an extra X chromosome, these are symptoms of Klinefelter syndrome:

• Abnormal body proportions (long legs, short trunk, shoulder equal to hip size)
• Abnormally large breasts (gynecomastia)
• Infertility
• Sexual problems
• Less than normal amount of pubic, armpit, and facial hair
• Small, firm testicles
• Tall height

Hmmm….

Among other things, the syndrome increases ones risk of attention deficient hyperactivity disorder, autoimmune disorders, depression, and learning disabilities (including dyslexia).

Hmmm….

So, while I cannot be certain the “YXX” note really means Trump was disqualified because he suffers a chromosomal disorder, it would explain the medical disqualification. And his lousy memory!

And the only way to know for sure is for Trump to—you got it—release his medical records. Otherwise, we will never know whether the Republican’s latest star candidate has a chromosomal disease….

– People keep telling me that McGinn is obsessed with Highway 99, but when I read his Facebook, Twitter, and official blog, I’m not sure it’s even the highway project he spends the most time on.

– Those green bike lanes look pretty snazzy.

– Greatest open letter ever.

– Shorter Pudge: The fact that all those people didn’t believe Obama was really American proves that there’s something bad. About Obama.

– Is HA Back on track for everyone? I haven’t noticed anything funky on the front page/comments the last few days, but the first time I tried to post this, WordPress ate it.

I’ve gotten several email alerts about a raid against a dispensary in Spokane. The CDC was doing their “how to prepare for a raid” training today in Spokane, so a number of people left to witness what was going on. I’ll update this post as I learn more.

UPDATE: Here’s a news report. Listening to some live audio from someone traveling to the scene of one raid with Steph Sherer from Americans for Safe Access. He’s reporting that there’s already a crowd gathered and some local news present. There are reports of some other raids, but no confirmation on which dispensaries are targeted.

UPDATE 2: Three dispensaries have been raided so far. Follow the #spokaneraid hashtag on Twitter for the latest updates.

Yesterday I was joking with a friend about how relieved I was to learn that Obama was born in Hawaii, and my friend says, “Why did he wait so long to release his birth certificate?”

“What the fuck????” was my response.

Okay…there are probably many Americans who don’t obsessively follow politics who really don’t know that Obama released his official birth certificate in 2008. The media isn’t helping all that much by discussing “long form” and “short form.”

There is no such thing as a “long form” and a “short form” birth certificate in Hawaii. (Even the fucking White House uses the terminology wrong.) “Long form” and “short form” are Birfer fictions. So why the hell should anyone surrender to the inaccurate framing coming from the nut cases? So let’s try to get it right.

The birth certificate that Obama released in 2008 is THE official birth certificate currently provided by Hawaii. Anyone born in Hawaii who purchases a copy of their birth certificate gets a similar computer generated birth certificate. It is not the “short form.” It is just the current form.

Hawaii does not currently produce an official, legal document that contains an image of the vault copy of the birth records. This is old news, but was verified again this week by CNN. A person CAN acquire an image of the vault copy of the birth certificate, but it is not a valid, certified document. It’s cannot be used for purposes like acquiring a passport.

There is one exception to that.

President Obama asked for a waiver of Hawaii’s practices in order to get a birth certificate bearing an image of the vault copy of his birth certificate. Loretta Fuddy, Hawaii’s Director of Health responded to the request:

…in recognition of your status of President of the United States, I am making an exception to the current departmental policy, which is to issue a computer generated certified copy.

I’m sure that someone will suggest that Obama must now be impeached for outrageously “pulling strings.” Yes…for Obama-haters this “abuse of power” will be a tangible charge to use against him for his real crime: Presiding while Black.