HorsesAss.Org

Will the Republicans come up with a credible challenger to Sen. Maria Cantwell for 2012? The topic came up at Drinking Liberally last week, and I’ve been been thinking about it on and off since then. Specifically…who?

Jim Brunner puts together a good analysis. At this point, the big challenge for any potential Republican is money. The clock is running. Cantwell is raising money. Her non-existent Republican opponent isn’t.

Former Washington state Republican Chairman Chris Vance has the political side figured out. (I like how he is able to say reality-based stuff that current Chairman Kirby Wilbur could never say):

“[R]ight now, it’s very much in doubt whether there is going to be a strong candidate.”

“The Republican brand got hammered on the West Coast during the Bush years, and it has not recovered….There are just so many more Democrats than Republicans in Washington state right now — the math just becomes very difficult.”

and

“If a Republican is going to have any chance to beat Cantwell, they have to immediately and sharply distance themselves from the national Republican Party”

Brunner offers three possible challengers: Susan Hutchison, who lost a race for King County Executive to Ron Sims Dow Constantine in 2009, Rep. Dave Reichert, and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant.

Not impressive.

Dino! Your party needs you!

– It’s tough to imagine, but I think this is one of Krugman’s most depressing columns.

– The Live Free or Die State

– Seattle should follow Cambridge’s lead until the feds repeal DOMA.

– Ants farm meat, maybe.

Last week’s contest was a tough one, but it was won by Brian. It was Fredericton, New Brunswick.

This week’s contest is related to a TV show or a movie, good luck!

Ephesians 6:5
Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ.

Discuss.

I’m definitely one of McGinn’s biggest supporters. But I don’t cover all or even most of the McGinn stories, and I was all set to pass on the story about how the city pulled ads from The Seattle Weekly. I mean maybe he should have waited until after the meeting, but it’s pretty clear that backpage.com’s policies are a problem. And the city doesn’t have an obligation to spend money advertising with them.

It seems like such an obvious thing that of course you can get behind it. But then I went on Facebook and Twitter where I saw that some people I usually like, despite disagreeing about McGinn in general, had a lot of nonsense to say. So, I just want to address a few things:

This isn’t about silencing an opponent in the media. The Seattle Times still gets advertising money from the city, as it should. If VVM and backpage.com can do a better job of making sure its ads are from people 18 and older, they’ll probably get advertising money back. If not, then we can demonize McGinn.

The mayor isn’t picking and choosing what weekly papers he’s supporting. The Stranger has policies in place to ensure people in its adult service ads are over 18. Even if they didn’t, 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

This isn’t about sex negativity. Good lord.

This may be a part of McGinn’s brash style. As I said, I understand the argument that he should have waited until the meeting with them. If you’re not a fan of that style in general (although I am), I can see why you wouldn’t like the way he made this decision. Still, it’s the right call and not even close.

Finally, nobody thinks this move will solve child prostitution, in general or in Seattle. But the cynical bullshit machine always makes similar arguments for inaction on every issue. Instead of evaluating this on if it’s good policy smart people, who I generally like, are evaluating it on if it’s perfect policy. No, it isn’t. Nobody expects a single move to solve everything. It’s part of a larger strategy that also includes adding cops to troubled areas and updating the SOAP (not the mayor’s office, but a city policy).

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pentagon is Worst Person in the World.

The final shuttle launch:

Liberal Viewer: FOX News admits bias to attack Media Matters?

Maddow: Ninth Circuit Court bars DADT enforcement.

Young Turks: GOP voter suppression like Jim Crow laws.

White House: West Wing Week.

Independence Day:

• Obama on the 4th of July.
• Newsy: The 4th and the Founding Fathers
• White House 4th of July.

Olbermann: Will Newscorp survive the scandal?

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

The Last Word: FOX Murdoch’s News of the World scandal.

Pap: How the G.O.P. is trying to fool African Americans.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Miasmatically Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Republicans refuse to negotiate on debt.

Thom: Republicans have destroyed the American way.

Young Turks: Republican Senator Orrin Hatch argues that the Poor don’t pay enough taxes.

Palin Around with Crazy:

• Olbermann reads some Sarah Palin Poetry:
• Young Turks: Bristol on her stolen virginity on The View

Thom: Is Bachmann’s Christianity radical even for evangelicals?.

Mark Fiore: Trickle-down Tales.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) on Clean energy.

The Daily Show’s best 2nd Amendment moments.

Thom with John Dean: How to get rid of Justice Thomas.

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

Pap: The criminal activities of Justice Thomas.

Young Turks: Slave labor for Wisconsin?

The POTUS Tweets.

Ed: Psychotalk from FOX’s David Asman accusing young Obama of gaming college system.

Oil Spill in Montana:

• Thom: Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) on the river oil spill.
• Young Turks: An oil spill in Montana

What have unions ever done for us? (Via Slog.):

Ohio State Rep. Robert Mecklenborg is Worst Person in the World.

The Daily Show’s Best 14th Amendment moments.

Ann Telnaes: Sen McConnell on raising taxes.

White House: Impressions on the Twitter Town Hall.

The G.O.P. Candidate Asylum:

• Ed: Mitt doublespeak.
• Does Mitt thing nobody is paying attention to his own words?!?
• Santorum’s major math FAIL (via Slog).
• Olbermann: Santorum and Romney gaffe-fest.
• Ed: Psycho-ignorance from Rick Santorum.
• Bachmann hopes high unemployment will help her campaign (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ed: Michele & Marcus Bachmann’s record of intolerance, homophobioa and bigotry:
• Young Turks: Santorum’s very bad math.
• Ed: Allentown Mayor blasts the Mittster.
• Maddow: The crazies vs. the Rombots.
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann on women being submissive to their husband.
• Last Word: The Right-wing anti-porn pledge.
• Maddow: Klansman David Duke to run for President as a Republican and other strange G.O.P. tales

Ed with some Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) psychotalk.

Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s anti-Porn vow.

Thom: Republicans ran up the bill…now they don’t want to pay.

Some airline employee is Worst Person in the World.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The NWroots conference is tomorrow (July 9th).

Speakers:

• Attorney, Rhodes Scholar, and community leader Cyrus Habib
• Undocumented immigrant/UW graduate Alonso Chehade
• Congressional candidate Jay Clough
• Congressional candidate Roger Goodman
• Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson
• Rep. Jim McDermott
• Rep. Jay Inslee
• Rep. Dennis Kucinich
• Former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh

Music: Irthlingz and the Total Experience Gospel Choir.

Registration: Registration/breakfast begins at 7:30am, $50 ($25 students). Or register online.

When: The conference is from 8:30am to 5:30pm.

Where: Comedy Underground in Seattle’s Pioneer Square.

Food: The conference includes breakfast at Swannies & lunch at Fx McRory’s.

The King County Young Republicans met at the North Bellevue Community Center last night to hear Rob McKenna speak. It didn’t go as planned.

The event was held in a public venue, advertised openly, and had a speaker who represents the state as an elected official and is also a high-profile public candidate.

Zach Wurtz, a videographer for the Washington State Democrats, who, I suspect, has been hired to record all of McKenna’s public appearances, showed up to record McKenna.

McKenna stopped and asked the man who he was with. The man gave his name, Zach Wurtz, and said he was with the Washington State Democrats. The Young Republicans club president, Jennifer Fetters, asked him to leave. Nope. McKenna told Wurtz to turn off the camera. Wurtz refused. McKenna’s voice got sharper, “Turn it off. Now!”

After further intimidation didn’t succeed in shutting down Wurtz’s camera, the cops were called. They took a long time to get there.

In the mean time…

McKenna stepped outside by the cupcake table.

Really?!? He escaped the scary video man by seeking safe harbor at the “cupcake table”? That’s simply precious!

One big advantage that McKenna has over Dino Rossi is that he’s far more adorable! I mean, you have to admit, retreating like a frightened boy to the cupcake table is a lot more endearing than, say, putting your goons to work on the videographer. So good call on the cupcake table, Rob.

McKenna apparently realized that he could not prevent the recording of political activity in a public place, because he never gave his speech.

Question: Why the hell couldn’t McKenna give his talk in the presence of “the enemy.” What’s he hiding? Was McKenna prepared to tell the Young Republicans things that he could never say to the general public?

Is McKenna, say, talking like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker behind closed doors, and then goes all smiles and cupcakes before the general public?

And what is this bullshit about not being video tapped? It’s now routine for campaigns to shadow each other. McKenna and Inslee should expect that all of their appearances will be recorded, scrutinized and, if something controversial is said, publicized.

Deal with it, Rob! You won’t always have a cupcake table to fall back on.

The Publicola story points out that Wurtz was forcibly removed from McKenna’s announcement press conference. Goldy was denied admission as well in his role as a reporter for The Stranger.

Knock it the fuck off! The “friendly room” strategy didn’t work for Rossi, and it isn’t likely to work for McKenna, either.

– Save King County Metro

– The News of the World story has been fascinating. Fox News doesn’t have much to say about it; I wonder why.

– Marriage =

– Diggin’ Shoreline.

– I’ve always thought salad days was underrated (as a Shakespeare quote).

– “Hey, got any speed?”

In case you missed it at Shakesville , What Tami Said, and on Twitter.

I haven’t got through it all yet, but I think it’s important for people to have a chance to tell their stories. Often times, the legislative and other battles over reproductive freedom get turned into abstractions pretty quickly. And there’s a temptation to forget the real people who have their lives effected by policy decisions. But abstractions aren’t the ones who have their lives improved by Planned Parenthood.

An Elway poll taken last week and released today has some not-so-bad and some not-so-good news for Rob McKenna (via Publicola).

But first the not-so-bad news for McKenna. The poll didn’t really do a typical head-to-head between Jay Inslee and McKenna. Rather, they took a smorgasbord approach (rotating the order of answers, of course):

Several candidates may run for Governor next year. As things stand today, whom would you support if the candidates were:

• Republican Rob McKenna
• Republican Bill Bryant
• Republican Clint Didier
• Democrat Dow Constantine
• Democrat Lisa Brown
• Democrat Aaron Reardon
• Democrat Jay Inslee
• Democrat Brian Sonntag

The not-so-bad part for McKenna is that he took 20% to Inslee’s 17%. But with five Dems to three G.O.P. names on the list, and about half the respondents offering no opinion, the question does little beyond assessing the potential viability of any candidates besides Inslee and McKenna.

(The answer: none shows any potential. Still, Mr. Didier, don’t let numbers and reality stand between you and the Governor’s mansion!)

The not-so-good news for McKenna came from another question:

Asked which type of candidate they were most likely
to support, 48% said a Democrat and 36% said a 
Republican. More specifically: 

• 22% said a “liberal Democrat” 
• 26% said a “moderate Democrat”  
• 16% said a “moderate Republican” and  
• 20% said a “conservative Republican. 

McKenna has spent years cultivating his image as a moderate Republican. He has shown remarkable discipline doing so.

But it was a single decision to “go rogue” in joining a lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—action he took against the wishes of the Governor and the legislature—that will prevent him from gaining the support of independents and moderate Democrats.

So, the not-so-good news is less good than the not-so-bad new, which isn’t really so good anyway.

I’ve written similar introductions (can we kill “lede” as a word in the 21st century?) so I don’t want to pick on Joni too much.

It seems a bit mad to be talking about exactly who is in and who is out of Washington’s 2012 governor’s race — 16 months away — but that is what we are doing in July 2011.

Joni then spends 10 paragraphs talking the governor’s race. Proving she’s “a bit mad” I suppose.

I actually don’t think it’s too bad talking about the Governor’s race, except if it crowds out local races, but I don’t think that has to happen. Especially in a blog like Ed cetera, where they can type as many words as they like. But this post could have been done in a paragraph or two, instead of a bunch of analysis of Inslee and McKenna and how the race will be close.

I have family up North, so I’ve taken my bike up there a few times since they started construction on the Burke-Gilman Trail. It’s less convenient than the trail; it’s not a bad ride but it’s hilly and curvy. Meandering through North Seattle and Lake Forest Park when it’s nice out is certainly fine. I imagine when it starts raining, I’ll be a bit less thrilled. I always appreciate a change of scenery, so for now it’s quite good. A few things I noticed, of course it’s all small sample size, and my experience:

• The cars are pretty good at giving room, and none have honked at me for the crime of being on the same street as them. This isn’t always the case for suburban streets, so it’s appreciated.
• People seem to be out more on the Seattle side of 145th than on the LFP side. A few LFP people walked their dogs, but more Seattle people were out. I don’t know if that’s actually a thing, or a coincidence.
• Some of the reroute signage is confusing. I’m not sure I went the way they were thinking behind the cemetery, but it worked, and part of being a bike person is being able to improvise.
• Even having lived in the area, I was surprised how much of the area I didn’t know.

The Seattle Weekly gets UW political science Prof. Matt Barreto’s take on the 2012 election. (Prof. Barreto is frequently heard on KUOW discussing elections and election results, and he is the director of the Washington Poll.)

Here’s his take on what will happen in Washington state:

“I think in the presidential election Obama will win handily, Cantwell could end up winning by 15 points, and the governor’s race will come down to the wire.”

“In 2008 Gregoire had a pretty sizable win thanks to the huge pro-Obama vote. Obama is likely to be elected by a big margin, but he’s unlikely to have that kind of enthusiasm. And if there’s not a big enthusiasm vote for Obama, McKenna could eek out a win.”

The Inslee—McKenna race will be one of the hottest contests in the country, and the Obama campaign knows it. So don’t be surprised if Obama makes several high-profile visits to Washington state during election season.

Sure…we’re always something of an ATM machine for Democratic candidates. But most importantly, visits by Obama will help generate the enthusiasm needed to put Inslee in the Governor’s mansion.

– Boot ’em.

– I haven’t delved into this map of Metro’s possible service cuts too deeply, but the cursory look is pretty scary.

– A fundraiser for Bread and Roses coming up July 23.

– The Revolutionary War is probably a richer topic for a movie than Angry Birds.

Update [Darryl]: The dust storm that ate Phoenix – videos and images.