HorsesAss.Org

Jesus Christ, do they ever bother to fact check any Seattle Times columnist? I mean, I’m an idiot and I can spot the problems with the lede.

Someday Seattle needs to vote no on a tax increase. Just to set a limit — some limit, somewhere.

The links added by me, and I swear were just off the top of my head. I know one is King County, but it’s not like Seattle taxes go up if we accept them but the county as a whole doesn’t. And I didn’t include Roads and Transit for the same reason (I’m not even sure if those measures passed or failed in Seattle). Or any Washington State initiatives. And by the by all of the tax cutting initiatives in Washington state over the years: they cut taxes for people in Seattle too, so we can increase our taxes before we hit the “limit” of before Eyman started relentlessly destroying the public good.

Anyway, then Ramsey goes on first to the Families and Education levy:

It is not a school levy. Voters already have approved those. Families and Education is a seven-year city levy that pays for preschool, clinics, tutors and after-school programs. This year’s levy will hit the average property owner at $124 a year. In the amount of money it raises, it doubles the existing seven-year tax, which was a 69 percent increase over the previous seven-year tax.

Preschools, clinics, tutors, etc., have not gone up in cost that much. Proponents want more of them.

Well, the state has been cutting education. They cut it in part because of the economy, in part because things that are dedicated to education like timber have been declining, in part because we rely too heavily on a sales tax that’s a shrinking share of the economy, and in part because of those statewide tax cuts that also cut taxes in Seattle. So it’s not just the cost of those things but the need to fill in the gap the state left (and beyond that the greater need in a recession).

Then while trying to argue that we should reject the car tabs, he makes the case that they should be larger:

One reason is that it is not pegged to anything big. The $204 million it will raise over 10 years will be spread over the city — a spoonful here and there on potholes, a serving of sidewalks, a slice of bus signals and bus electrification, more bike lanes, etc. Many of these are worth doing. Then there is the 9 percent earmarked for streetcars, which appeal to people who judge vehicles on how they look.

Ha, it’s funny because even though the SLUT has been so successful that we’ve had to add another car, streetcars look funny (???) or whatever. But, yes, I agree I’d like more big projects. You get that with higher car tabs, not by rejecting the car tabs.

Also, he enthusiastically quotes people who don’t like the regressive nature of the tax. I agree with that, but somehow, I doubt Ramsey would be for it if we raised the same amount of money (or enough for something big) by basing it on the blue book value with an exemption for the first $500 or whatever. In any event the state, not the city, is the problem here. I think it’s safe to say that if Olympia gave us the ability to raise the money in a more progressive way, Seattle would agree to that.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for a quiet dinner.

Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Tonight the Bellingham Chapter also meets at 7:00pm. Tomorrow night at 7:00pm, the Burien chapter meets. And next Monday, the Olympia and the South Bellevue chapters of Drinking Liberally meet at 7:00 pm.

With 225 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are good there is one near you.

1) Crime is down in the city, but we’ve seen some horrible incidents with the police in recent years. How do we ensure public safety and not have those sorts of things happen in the future?

We make certain the Office of Professional Accountability, and the related civilian Auditor and the seven-member civilian Review Board, have the tools and resources necessary to thoroughly investigate complaints of misconduct.

This may seem insignificant, but we should transform the public face of the OPA—printed materials that explain the process of investigations, notification and update letters and the office environment. The current OPA environment—website, printed materials, offices—express a strong police orientation. Instead, the OPA environment should be professional, neutral and welcoming. First impressions matter.

As we have heard from the past four civilian OPA Auditors, the quality and thoroughness of OPA investigations are not the issue. The real issue, as identified by current Auditor Anne Levinson, is what we don’t know. Some in the city believe that our police officers use force far more often than is reported. My office will soon ask the City Auditor and the OPA Review Board to examine this issue and conduct independent research of arrestees to determine whether force was used during their arrest and whether the arresting officers properly completed required “use of force” reports. This type of external, proactive examination will identify problems and will also help build public trust and confidence in the Police Department.

Turning to crime prevention, emerging evidence indicates that we should shift away from the policing of people, but not all people, to the policing of place. This would be a major shift in American policing.

This change is necessary because crime is geographically concentrated and anchored at micro places. Crime is not randomly distributed across a city. In Seattle, using 16 years of crime data, researchers have found that about 50% of reported crime is found at just 5% to 6% of our street segments. More than 20% of crime in Seattle is concentrated at just 1% of street segments.

Changing to policing place would have dramatic impact in reducing crime and improving police-community relations. Inherent in the “policing of place” is a strong community-based orientation; police officers working with the community to resolve problems, rather than police officers arriving to just arrest people or “enforce the law.”

This strategic shift would transform the Police Department. It would give officers a strong sense of mission. A spirit of innovation would take hold as officers digested crime data and worked with community members to design appropriate intervention tactics.

2) Now that the Viaduct is coming down, what should the waterfront look like?

The central waterfront should become a place that celebrates Seattle’s maritime and industrial history, honors our Native American heritage, reconnects the city with Elliott Bay along key east-west corridors, and provides a series of public places where individuals and families can enjoy parks, pedestrian promenades, outdoor restaurants and views stretching from Pike Place Market to the stadium district. Port of Seattle operations and jobs must be protected.

3) As the great recession drags on, the city budget is still hurt. What do we need to cut, what do we need to keep, and do we need to raise more money via taxation?

We should adopt an outcome-based budgeting philosophy so we understand why we are investing in particular projects and what we are achieving. Unfortunately, we don’t really know what many of our investments are producing, especially when it comes to human services, youth and family, and crime prevention expenditures. A much stronger performance orientation is needed in city government.

We should continue to protect human services and public safety programs as our highest priorities. For example, one of the best crime prevention programs in the country is the Nurse Family Partnership (NFP), a 30 year effort to link specially trained nurses with first time mothers living in poverty. Seattle currently provides funding to reach about one-third of the eligible moms in the city; two-thirds of those who qualify do not receive services. Yet, the NFP has consistently shown through high quality research that it can reduce criminal behavior, strength the families involved and save government tens of thousands of dollars. We should fully fund the
NFP.

I helped craft the renewal of the Families and Education Levy that is on the November 8 ballot. If passed by the voters, this measure will nearly double the amount of funding for highly targeted intervention efforts for our most at risk public school kids. This tax increase is justified because continuing to accept the status quo in public education where nearly half of our students are at great academic risk will only cost much more long into the future.

4) With its budget shrunk at least until the end of the recession what should Seattle parks look like?

We need to maintain our parks so they are inviting and accessible to all. Funding for parks maintenance has suffered in recent years because of the economic slump. In 2008, I worked with Councilmember Rasmussen to craft a Parks levy for the November ballot. That measure passed overwhelmingly.

There are discussions under way to identify other Parks funding options.

5) What is the Seattle’s role in education and public transportation given how important they are to the city, but that other agencies are tasked with them?

With regard to public education, our role is to make certain that Seattle students receive a high quality education. The City has many opportunities to influence the direction and policies of the Seattle School District— Families and Education Levy, joint use agreements for school playgrounds and parks, collaboration between the Council and the School Board.

City services should be aligned with the policies and outcomes of the School District. For example, we do this now with the Levy that is designed to provide academic and support services consistent with the District’s goals and with police services at specific District buildings.

SDOT is responsible for city streets and bridges and we work closely with King County and state agencies related to Metro bus services and state highways that traverse Seattle. We have good relationships with these other agencies; witness the new regional transit service principles for allocation of Metro service that eliminated the old and flawed 40-40-20 rules.

Looking forward to this Ken Burns special next week:

There is another statewide poll result released by King 5 today. This one is for the 2012 Attorney General race between King Council members Bob Ferguson (D) and Reagan Dunn (R). Like the gubernatorial poll I wrote about earlier, 523 registered voters expressed a preference.

A total of 388 had a preference, of which 207 (39%) went for Ferguson and 181 (34%) went for Dunn. Some 27% had no preference—hardly surprising since both politicians are mostly known in King County. The normalized percentages are 53.4% for Ferguson and 46.6% for Dunn. But the poll has a very small effective sample size.

The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections finds Ferguson winning 825,042 times to Dunn’s 165,625 victories.

If an election was to be held today, we would expect Ferguson to win with an 83.3% probability. Of course, the polling results are not “significant” by traditional criteria.

I suspect that this poll is biased in favor of Ferguson. My reason is that the largest share of undecideds probably come from outside of King County, where there is low name recognition for both candidates. Therefore, what we see is likely dominated by Democratic-leaning preferences within King County. A small countervailing bias might arise from the better name recognition outside of King County for Reagan Dunn, on account of his late Mother, Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R). Still, Ferguson gets a few points advantage out of the poll at this stage of the election season.

The contrast between this race and the gubernatorial race is interesting. At first glance, it might seem concerning that Ferguson (D) leads Dunn (R) for Attorney General in the same poll that finds current Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D) for the Governor’s race. Rather than spelling doom for Inslee, I think this just shows that McKenna has much better name recognition statewide, and even within King County. The position of Attorney General can be high-profile, and McKenna has certainly not been bashful about taking advantage of it to raise his profile. And while Inslee has been very popular in the 1st CD (winning by double digits in every one of his last six reelection bids), he hasn’t nearly the name recognition outside of his district.

In sum, Inslee is a little better off than today’s poll suggests, and Ferguson is a little worse off than today’s poll suggests. Both races are probably closer to 50%-50%.

Update: As Richard Pope points out in the comment thread, the numbers in the post didn’t match the headline. The headline is correct. I screwed up typing Inslee’s number into a database, and the error spread from there. All fixed now.

A new poll is about to be released in the Washington gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and state Attorney General Rob McKenna. The poll surveyed 532 registered voters and was conducted on behalf of KING 5 by Survey USA. KING 5‘s Robert Mak gives a brief overview of the results.

0f the 532 surveyed, 404 436 had an opinion: 170 202 (32 38%) supported Inslee and 234 (44%) supported McKenna. The undecided group made up 24.1 18%. I did my typical Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections at the observed percentages. Inslee “won” 11,474 136,028 times and McKenna “won” 987,293 856,218 times.

The results suggest that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 98.9 86.3% probability. Note that since McKenna’s probability of winning is less than 95%, the lead is not considered “significant” by traditional statistical reasoning.

It is, of course, too early to panic over this poll, particularly with 24 18% undecided. Nevertheless, this poll puts McKenna in the lead. Last week a poll from Strategies 360, a Democratic consulting firm, showed a similar lead for McKenna, 46% to 39%. I generally ignore polls from partisan consultants or polls commissioned by campaigns, but the similarity in results is noteworthy. The previous “real” poll for this race was from Survey USA in late June and showed Inslee with a small, non-significant lead over McKenna, 47% to 44% (my analysis is here).

Mac points out for today’s poll:

McKenna’s early lead can be attributed in part to his strength in the Puget Sound area. In King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, he’s even with Inslee at 41% each, which is significant for a Republican candidate. As expected, McKenna picks up votes in more conservative eastern Washington with a 59%-25% advantage.

Inslee has, apparently, lost ground to McKenna on both fronts: in June he was up 49% to 42% in Seattle and McKenna was up 51% to 41% in eastern Washington.

This race is being touted as the hottest Governor’s race in the country, and the best G.O.P. gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation. It’s certainly living up to the hype!

– Not this one either.

– The Tea Party are the people to clean up government.

– Its a short-sighted point of view to say that none of us alive today were responsible for expelling the Chinese, stealing a canoe or killing Leschi, so why should we go through the process of honoring the better choices our ancestors could have made?

– GOP: We support the troops. No, not the gay ones.

– The movement…the struggle will be there when you come back…and it needs you strong, solid, and ready to get set and go.

– This police officer pepper spraying an Occupy Wall Street protester is a disgrace.

– At week 3, we can all sigh a bit of relief that the Seahawks have at least won a game.

Last week’s contest was won by Siberian Dog. It was Kent, WA.

Here’s this week’s contest, related to a news event from September. Good luck!

Genesis 6:1-4
And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the earth, and daughters were born unto them, that the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose.

And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.

There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same became mighty men which were of old, men of renown.

Discuss.

– The group Patients Against New Approach Washington sent the New Approach Washington campaign a letter outlining their concerns over the DUI provisions in Initiative 502. Earlier this week, I discussed why these limits aren’t just unscientific, but could lead to unnecessarily overburdening a system that’s already not very good at keeping dangerous drivers off the roads.

– The RAND Corporation released a study from Los Angeles that showed that when medical marijuana dispensaries are closed, the amount of crime in the immediate area increases. The study looked at the 10 day windows before and after Los Angeles shut down over 70% of its dispensaries. They found that crime around the closed dispensaries was 60% greater than around the dispensaries that continued to operate. This is just another reminder that anyone who calls medical marijuana dispensaries “magnets for crime” is either unaware of how magnets work, or is completely full of shit.

– The White House is once again using the internet to find out what issues “We the People” want the government to deal with. And once again, a petition to end marijuana prohibition is winning by a lot. Even Mexican President Felipe Calderon is starting to come around on this, but it’s still pretty clear no one in the White House is willing to listen. Same for Canada.

– This past Wednesday, I went to an event sponsored by MAPS. They continue to do a lot of great work on finding PTSD treatments, but continue to run into roadblocks from the drug war. Despite that, the evidence continues to pile up that they’re on to something.

– New York is finally cracking down on the very cynical way that they trick people (read: minorities) into more serious drug offenses by having them show their drugs to them.

– It’s good to be reminded that police officers don’t always tell the truth.

– Some Texas cops had a fun night.

Obama: Address to the U.N.:

Ann Telnaes: The dangers of privatizing Social Security.

Pap: Trade deals are killing American jobs.

Thom: How Republicans are trying to steal elections.

Capital Punishment:

• Ann Telnaes: The problem with capital punishment….
• Thom: Have the psychopaths taken over America?

Mark Fiore: SolyndraGatePocalypse.

Young Turks are going to Current TV.

Something to make Puddybud’s head implode: Al Gore welcomes Cenk and the Young Turks to Current TV:

New co-chair of “Rick Perry’s Florida Presidency 5 campaign leadership team” is Worst Person in the World.

Ed with some psychotalk from a poor impoverished Republican.

Sam Seder: First hand account of “Occupy Wall Street”.

Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

• Thom and Lt. Dan Choi on repeal of DADT.
• Jay Inslee on repeal of DADT.
• Lawrence O’Donnell and Dan Savage on DADT
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part I).
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part II).
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.

Obama: The American Inventions act.

Actual Audio: James Carville wants Obama to fire somebody.

Pap and Ed: The truly evil nature of FAUX News.

Jon interviewed by Rolling Stone.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• Liberal Viewer: Are Republicans pro-Life or pro-death
• David Lettermann mocks the GOP debate.
• GOP 2012: A lot of reasons not to elect ’em
• Sam Seder: Candidates silent as debate audience boos gay soldier.
• David Schuster on anti-intellectualism in the G.O.P. primary.
• Newsy: Covering the crowd’s booing a gay soldier.
• Michele Bachmann chooses HPV:
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann & dangerous food
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Michele Bachmann, “The banks are getting killed.”
• David Shuster and comedian Andy Borowitz on Bachmann’s Tonight Show appearance.
• Pap: Michele Bachmann’s warped world view.
• Young Turks: underinformed voters love Perry.
• Aloyna: Perry Chokes.
• Sam: God tells Rick Perry to kiss AIG ass.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s Armageddon.
• Rick Perry’s Texas Miracle:
• Tweety: What Texas miracle?
• Young Turks: Perry’s secession lie.
• Newsy: Romney and Perry trade blows
• Mitt-pocrisy on the American Jobs Act.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Middle-Class Mitt.
• Sharpton: Mitt’s personal investments…
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.
• Sam Seder: Rick Santorums all over Google.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Santorum’s Google problem.
• Comedy Central talks to Gary Johnson (he’s running for President).

White House: West Wing Week.

David Schuster with Comedian Jamie Kilstein on Tea Party untruths.

American Family Association breaks into Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Newsy: Political ads on Twitter.

Oh Nos! Class Warfare!

• Ed and Pap: It’s not class warfare…it’s class genocide!
• Olbermann and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm on class warfare.
• Stephen: The Buffet rule and Obama’s class warfare.
• Ann Telnaes: Class warfare, GOP style.
• Pap: The class warfare that needs to happen.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen: Obama wasted no time emarassing US at the UN.

Pap: The hatred coming from the Teabaggers.

Thom: Republicans are taking more hostages, are you next?

Alyona’s Happy Hour: Bristol Palin bar fight.

Obama on No Child Left Behind.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I agree with O-Dub in general that when protesting you’ll be more effective if you, “Get a haircut. Wear a nice shirt. Carry a sign with a message that makes some kind of sense to an average American.” I’m sort of proud of the fact that every piece of B-roll I’ve ever seen myself in at a protest, it’s been in a coat and tie. Sometimes, especially if you’re marching, it gets hot.

Still, I don’t think that if the occupy Wall Street people were dressed to the nines, that they’d be taken particularly seriously. I mean, the Tea Party dress pretty silly, and still manage to mostly get glowing coverage since they’re protesting for the pro-wealthy, pro-corporate position. No, I’m afraid that as long as you’re pointing out that power maybe shouldn’t be concentrated in a few hands, the rest of your message is going to mostly be ignored, obscured, and fought.

So while I say, dress with a seriousness equal to your cause, also, try not to blame people for protesting differently. Especially when they’re generally right.

– Can we finally admit that the war on cars is a war by cars?(h/t)

– What would you like to see in the next Seattle budget?

– What should happen in the upcoming special session?

– Will Rick Santorum ever get rid of his Google problem?

– Is there anything sadder than Jonah Goldberg trying to think?

– Does Amazon want its employees to suffer from heat stroke, or is it just indifferent?

– Anybody going to the Safe Streets Social?

– How many muffins for that surgery?

It’s time for more Republican kkkraaaaazzzzy! Tonight’s debate is brought to you by the odd team of Google and FAUX News.

The livestream can be found here.

I’ll liveblog as I have the chance and inclination…provided the dry heaving doesn’t turn into actual vomiting.

5:58: Okay…I’m getting a little more psyched. I’m curious to learn whose death will bring on raucous cheers from the audience, this time.

6:00: Gary Johnson is allowed to participate!?!

6:07: Bachmann wants everyone to keep every single dollar that they earn. Does she even know where her salary comes from?

6:08: Santorum said something, but I was writing the above comment. It sounded really icky anyway.

6:15: “And that dog don’t hunt”, Herman Cain channels Bill Clinton.

6:24: Nice…America’s least popular Governor (Scott) wishes the candidates good luck.

6:25: Rick Perry on Social Security: I didn’t really mean to eliminate Social Security…its just that we should allow people to be in other programs just like they are already doing in almost every state!

6:32: Why does Herman Cain hate Richard Nixon?!?

6:34: Newt brings back the Contract on America™!

6:41: Huh…did you know that Michele Bachmann is the mother of 5 biological children and foster mother of 23 children?

6:42: Huntsman one-ups two-ups Bachmann. He has 7 biological children.

6:44: The Great Wall of Bachmann

6:46: And…The Great Wall of Newt

6:48: And The Great Wall of Mitt

6:51: Chris Wallace just said, “Senator Santorum…no need to butt in!”

6:52: The Great Wall of Santorum. Eeeeeeewwwwwwwwwww!

6:54: Someone should tell Ron Paul that the term “data bank” hasn’t been used since 1979.

Tacoma teachers ratify the new contract.

The final vote was 1,683 YES, 15 NO and three invalid ballots. Classes will resume Friday throughout the Tacoma School District.

Tacoma teachers said the contract is a huge victory for them and their students. School district administrators and the Tacoma School Board proposed increasing class sizes, cutting teacher pay and imposing subjective and potentially discriminatory policies regarding teacher staffing decisions. Unwilling to continue working under an expired contract, and refusing to concede on those issues, 87 percent of Tacoma teachers voted to strike Sept. 12.

…

Here are the highlights of the new contract:

• Protects existing class-size/caseload limits for all TEA certificated members
• Protects existing salary scheduling; one less building optional day
• Protects current displacement language for this year; committee with equal representation from TEA and administration will study and implement new policy using objective and appropriate criteria in the 2012-13 school year. Any new policy must be approved by two-thirds of the committee members.

Kudos to governor Gregoire for bringing both sides to Olympia to hammer something out. Still, I imagine that the special session if it happens and the next regular session of the legislature are going to have a lot to do with if there are future strikes. If we get even more cuts, there will probably be more strikes as the issues will be tougher to negotiate.