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Friday Open Thread

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A little drizzle and wind, and you can breathe again in Downtown Seattle. It’s maybe a bit hazy, but it’s nice. Greater rain will get the rest of it.

Going forward, we’ll have to figure out how to not make this a yearly thing. Better forestry practices and fixing — or realisticly preventing the worst of — global warming are obviously priorities. Also, maybe building code updates so less smoke gets inside.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Seriously, the bivalent booster is a miracle.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Neither snow nor rain nor cold nor gloom of smoky nights stays these liberals from the swift consumption of their fermented rounds….or from rounds of vigorous discussion. That’s right, the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight! Stop by if you fancy.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may prefer to stay in the back room of the pub.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Open Thread Monday

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Hey, you know what would be great? If there wasn’t so damn much smoke everywhere. And maybe if we we don’t break records in October. Give us a good, hard rainy day. Just a day to get this shit done with. I know, in February, I’ll be done with it, but the fires need putting out. No smoking, Seattle. I don’t want to wear a mask just to go on a walk.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. The bivalent booster is great, and you protect yourself and your community by getting it.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Ali Velshi: The viral political ad women have been waiting for

Seth Meyers: Vice President Harris talks Biden’s marijuana pardons, 2022 midterms and abortion rights
Seth Meyers: Vice President Kamala Harris discusses the next steps for pardoning marijuana possession

Desi Lydic investigates paper shortages affecting upcoming elections

Трамп and His Band of Lying Seditionists:

John Oliver: Crime reporting

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Seth Meyers: FAUX News’ Halloween fearmongering—Hot Tamales, Sugar Daddies

SNL Weekend Update: Political news of the week

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread

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Hey, people with marijuana convictions in King County: The county is still making efforts to clear those convictions from before it was legal. And their budget includes outreach to some of the toughest people to find. It’s good, and it is still producing results a decade on.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. I got boosted and a flu shot at the same time, and my only symptom is that my arm is a bit sore.

Wednesday Open Thread

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SPD behaved so poorly during CHOP that sometimes you forget whole ass portions of it. Reading about the report by the Inspector General, I completely forgot about SPD making up armed checkpoints out of whole cloth. Wild that they want more offers and 0 accountability after that mess.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Vaccination rates are low for the bivalent booster, so make an appointment soon.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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Who else is sick of the smoke from the Bolt Creek Fire? It has been more than a month of this disgusting sky. We could all use some rain.

One thing I am surprised by is that so few people are wearing N95 masks in it. Surely we all swimming in them after COVID-19. And they’re free at most drug stores. Just ask for one.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders

LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever

John Oliver: Museums and antiquities

WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward

Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons

Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power

Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?

Трамп and His Felonious Fans:

Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown

Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.

WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion

Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG

The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread

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What the fuck is happening with the King County jail? Jesus, man. Cloudy water? Cloudy water. For a week. It’s so terrible. They are people in our custody, and we have a moral responsibility to do fucking better.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And sign up to get vaccinated or for the bivalent booster right now.

Wednesday Open Thread

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Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.

We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Senate Race 2022

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
97.2% probability
2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats
Mean of 49 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 47
Strong Democrat 3 50
Leans Democrat 0 0 50
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 50
Weak Republican 0 0 0 50
Leans Republican 5 5 50
Strong Republican 10 45
Safe Republican 35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 9 6018 54.3 45.7 100.0 0.0
AR 1 618 41.3 58.7 0.1 99.9
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 3 2667 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
CT 2 2435 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
FL 6 3396 47.5 52.5 2.0 98.0
GA 8 7128 51.2 48.8 92.9 7.1
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 805 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
IN 1 456 48.7 51.3 35.1 64.9
IA 1& 514 45.3 54.7 6.9 93.1
KS 1 784 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.3 99.7
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 2 1560 43.3 56.7 0.0 100.0
NV 5 3721 48.8 51.2 15.6 84.4
NH 7 5381 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
NY 2 1454 62.6 37.4 100.0 0.0
NC 5 3603 49.2 50.8 24.3 75.7
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 5 3698 49.3 50.7 26.9 73.1
OK 2 814 43.6 56.4 0.4 99.6
OK 1 430 39.5 60.5 0.1 99.9
OR 2 1507 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
PA 9 6780 52.6 47.4 99.9 0.1
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 3 1198 46.6 53.4 4.7 95.3
VT 1 996 53.5 46.5 94.5 5.5
WA 5 3361 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
WI 8 5709 49.2 50.8 18.4 81.6

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle

This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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Good morning. Let’s start taking steps to get to a place where we can breach the dams on the Snake River. Excellent for salmon. We’ll have to figure out ways to replace the energy the dams produce. But it’s great to push for.

Rep. Dan Newhouse is opposed to any dam removal because he’s fighting a war on fishing. He wants the Snake River as dead as possible. He hates the recreation and transportation that could be achieved.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

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