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Another Eyman Initiative ruled unconstitutional

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 11:07 am

Via Slog:

Tim Eyman’s 2/3 majority requirement for raising new state revenue is unconstitutional, according to King County Superior Court Judge Bruce E. Heller.

The law enacted through Initiative 1053 is ruled unconstitutional; it directly contradicts the Washington State Constitution, Article II, Section 22:

No bill shall become a law unless on its final passage the vote be taken by yeas and nays, the names of the members voting for and against the same be entered on the journal of each house, and a majority of the members elected to each house be recorded thereon as voting in its favor.

Of course, the ruling will be appealed and, ultimately, settled by the Supreme Court. With any luck, the Supreme Court won’t be able to weasel its way out of a substantive ruling this time….

The next question: If I-1053 is unconstitutional, what should be the fate of its latest incarnation, I-1185, should it get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot? Will AG Rob McKenna sue Eyman to keep an unconstitutional initiative off the ballot?

You know, like AG Christine Gregoire did with Goldy’s Horses’ Ass initiative.

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Another Isolated Incident

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 7:44 am

These anti-choice acts of violence that have nothing to do with any other act of violence have come fast these last few days.

A New Orleans women’s health organization was destroyed last week by an unknown arsonist, becoming the latest target of attacks on women’s health clinics in the south.

The organization, Women With A Vision, was likely singled out because it offers AIDS prevention help, HIV testing, and substance abuse assistance to sex workers, transgender women, poor women, and women of color. The clinic also does community outreach and education on those issues. Like two incidents in Georgia last week, no one was injured in the fire, but the clinic lost a good share of its resources.

This incident and the countless — unrelated — ones like it that have nothing whatever to do with the political rhetoric that opposing women’s rights to control their own bodies. It certainly has nothing to do with a climate of violence.

[h/t]

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Judge: Rob McKenna is off the hook because his lies were political

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 7:05 pm

Rob McKenna is being sued by some 90 women. The reason is his participation in the Attorneys General lawsuit against the 2009 Patient Protection and Affordable Care act (i.e. “Obamacare”). The group argues that:

[…] McKenna violated his ethical duties as an attorney by pushing for the entire health-care law to be overturned; that McKenna should be forced to file a corrective pleading with the US Supreme Court saying that he only opposes the individual mandate aspect of the health care law, which requires every US citizen to get insurance; and that the court should find McKenna guilty of issuing “false and misleading statements” about the health care law because he claimed that his lawsuit was aimed not at overturning the entire act, but only at eliminating the individual mandate.

McKenna has been lying to Washingtonians. He has repeatedly claimed that he supports some aspects of the law, all the while participating in the effort to overturn the entire law.

Today we learn that King County Superior Court judge Sharon Armstrong will not issue preliminary injunction directing McKenna to fix the inconsistencies between his public and legal positions by amending his Supreme Court briefings.

The meme in the mainstream media seems to chalk the ruling up as a perliminary victory for McKenna. But Publicola political uberwonks Erica C. Barnett and Josh Feit (now at Crosscut) catch the more nuanced meaning of the ruling—the courts won’t judge McKenna for his political lies:

Although King County Superior Court Judge Sharon Armstrong’s rejection of a request to enjoin McKenna from arguing against the federal health care law certainly looks like a win for McKenna, the ruling effectively finds that, contrary to his public statements, he has in his legal motions consistently opposed the entire Affordable Care Act, not just the requirement that every American buy health insurance. The judge specifically said that McKenna’s public statements were “political statements” that had to be judged in the political realm rather than the courtroom. As to McKenna’s going along with other states’ attorneys general in seeking to have the law overturned in its entirety, Armstrong said the court lacked authority to second-guess whether it was a wise legal strategy.

In other words, Judge Armstrong leaves it to the voters of Washington to judge McKenna for his political lies.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 3:47 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics, conversation and birth certificate scrutiny over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night as well. Also next Monday, the Olympia, Yakima, and South Bellevue chapters of Drinking Liberally meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Open Thread 5/29

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 5/29/12, 7:57 am

– If you drove hundreds of miles out of your way for booze this weekend because of the transition between state and private stores, it may be because you’re a lush.

– Washington state politics are this fucked up.

– I think this sort of writing about race–and really about American politics–as though history doesn’t exist is a problem. Specifically, journalists are fond of saying “racism is only one factor” without realizing that any racism is unacceptable.

– I’m not saying the fact that Nickleback is Rob McKenna’s favorite band should disqualify him from being governor (that’s what his policies are for) but it’s certainly a mark against him.

– How the GOP is fighting for you.

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Memorial Day open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 5/28/12, 10:01 am

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 5/27/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was Tacoma.

This one is related to something in the news from May, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/27/12, 7:00 am

Leviticus 18:17
Do not have sexual relations with both a woman and her daughter. Do not have sexual relations with either her son’s daughter or her daughter’s daughter; they are her close relatives. That is wickedness.

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/25/12, 11:58 pm

Young Turks: Americans are fundamentally progressive says new poll.

Thom: The myth of the 1% job creator.

Sam Seder: Bigoted Pastor wants to round-up gays & wait for them to die.

Kimmel: Mitt’s first day in office.

Actual Audio: Mitt on Bain.

Young Turks: Barry Obama & The “Choom Gang”:

Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Iowa G.O.P. platform is insane.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Missouri experiments with execution.

A A rallying call for Democrats.

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Memorializin’ the War on Women.

Young Turks: Which Presidents have higher spending growth, Democrats or Republicans?

Thom: Why Joe Biden needs to blurt out a defense of pot.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh gets creepy with 14-year-old girl.

Ann Telnaes: Pelvic Politics.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Pres. Obama is right about same sex marriage.

Letters to the President: Tanisha’s Story.

Pap: The worst Republican Party in history.

Sam Seder: FAUX & Friends nutty ideas about food stamps and the unemployed.

Stephanie Miller: Lessons Romney needs in education.

And the Drone Goes On:

  • Ann Telnaes: Drone strikes and collateral damage.
  • Mark Fiore: Dronetopia!

Thom with Nick Hanauer: Is Romney a preditor?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Stigmatizing Poor People is Good?!

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Wisconsin edition.

Maddow: The Reverse-Robin-Hood Republicans.

Mitt Romney: Not a job creator.

Sam Seder: Heartland institute gets blowback over Unabomber/Climate Change denial campaign.

Alyona: Romney’s education plan FAIL:

Fred Karger for President.

White House: West Wing Week.

Obama and the fight for LGBT rights.

Greenman: How to talk to an Ostrich.

Maddow: Anti-abortion activists terrorize doctors in Georgia.

Thom with even more of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Alabama doubles down on undocumented immigrants.

The Neo-Racists Birfers:

  • Ed and Pap: Romney is embracing Birfers.
  • Young Turks: NBC should fire birfer Donald.
  • Bill Maher: Countering Birferism with Wiferism.

Buzz 60: Summer of presidential politics.

Obama speaks to Iowans:

Young Turks: Clinton poses with porn stars.

Ann Telnaes: Physical limits in Afghanistan.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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The Trump Vehicle

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/25/12, 6:40 pm

Over at Shakesville, there’s the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen. It’s part of an announcement that you can enter yourself to win a dinner with Donald Trump if you donate a small amount of money. I can’t imagine wanting to have dinner with Donald Trump, but whatever. That’s not the thing that I find amazing.

Lots of candidates have that sort of thing. Obama has the same thing for his supporters.

No, the amazing thing is you’ll also win a trip from the airport in “the Trump vehicle.” I mean, I know he named most (some? all but The Apprentice?) of his business ventures after himself. Business people do that. No he named his car after himself. The only other wealthy business person who names his car after himself that I know of is Batman.

And he’s fictional. Also, he has the good sense not to call it the Waynemobile.

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Poll Analysis: Romney wins some, loses some

by Darryl — Friday, 5/25/12, 12:33 pm


Obama Romney
99.5% probability of winning 0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

There were lots of new polls released in the two days since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 17-May 20-May 500 4.4 43 50 R+7
CA PPIC 14-May 20-May 894 — 50 39 O+11
FL Marist 17-May 20-May 1078 3.0 45 40 O+5
GA InsiderAdvantage 22-May 22-May 438 — 39.9 52.3 R+12.4
MD PPP 14-May 21-May 852 3.4 58 35 O+23
MA Suffolk 20-May 22-May 600 — 59.3 34.0 O+25.3
NC Civitas 19-May 20-May 600 4.0 45 47 R+2
OH Marist 17-May 20-May 1103 3.0 45 40 O+5
VA Marist 17-May 20-May 1076 3.0 46 42 O+4
WI St Norbert College 17-May 22-May 406 5.0 49 43 O+6
WI Reason-Rupe 14-May 18-May 609 4.0 46 36 O+10

The good news for Romney is that Arizona gives him a modest +7% lead over Obama. And Romney will need it, now that Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R-AZ) has concluded that Obama really was born in Hawaii. Although there is an occasional poll showing Obama ahead, the larger trend shows the state in Romney’s column:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Arizona
Other good news for Romney is that North Carolina has him up by +2% over Obama, and he takes three of the four May polls. The larger trend has favored Obama since late 2010, but things are clearly changing in the state:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12North Carolina

Florida is up to its old tricks of bouncing between candidates. After being down -6% in the previous poll, Obama scores +5% over Romeny. The overall trend in FL looks more favorable to Obama, but that can clearly change:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Florida

In good news for Obama, we finally get the first poll out of Maryland. Obama has a dominating +23% lead over Romney.

Obama takes another Ohio poll with a +5% lead over Romney. Obama has now led in the last ten Ohio polls, dating back to late February.

Virginia gives Obama +4% over Romney. The recent trend still favors Obama in the state, but there is at least a hint that the state is swinging toward Romney:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Virginia

Both Wisconsin polls give Obama the lead over Romney, and solidify his lead in the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,494 times and Romney wins 506 times (including the 51 ties). Obama receives (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.5% probability of winning.

The probability is a slight improvement for Romney, up from a 0.2%. On the other hand, Romney’s expected electoral vote total drops from 220 to 215, as Obama’s increases from 318 to 323.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Candidate Questions

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/25/12, 8:02 am

As I discussed a while ago, I’m sending out these questions to various Democratic candidates for contested races. I’m being somewhat more selective than I was with City Council where I just asked both people going on no matter how serious people might consider their candidacy. So no questions for Inslee’s or Cantwell’s Democratic primary opposition. Also, no Kastama since it’s Democrats only. I also didn’t do the 1st Congressional District since it’s being fairly well covered, and I didn’t do Superintendent of Public Instruction since it’s non-partisan and I may do some more of these for the general.

These will go Monday, so it’s your last chance to get something in. It’s the same question to every candidate, and it has to be fairly general, and since it’s email there won’t be follow up; if people give bullshit answers, you should feel encouraged to call bullshit in the comments.

Sec of State

1) How will you make sure elections are fair?

2) The last Democratic Secretary of State retired in 1964. What makes you think you’re going to finally flip that?

3) Sam Reed has been pushing to count the ballots that are received by election day (like in Oregon) rather than the ones postmarked by election day. Do you support or oppose this?

4) What legislation, if any, will you lobby for as Secretary of State?

Auditor

1) How will you use the performance audits as a tool to improve governance.

2) What in your background would make you a good auditor?

3) What legislation, if any, will you push as auditor?

36th and 46th Legislative Districts

1) The state’s paramount duty is education. Do you feel the state is living up to that duty? If not, what needs to happen to live up to it?

2) Washington State voters recently rejected an income tax. Most of the revenue that the legislature might be able to pass is quite regressive. Will you push for revenue, and if so, how will you make sure the burdens don’t fall on the poorest Washingtonians?

3) There is a good chance that the State Senate and/or the Governor’s Mansion will be controlled by Republicans after the next election, and certainly most legislators will be more conservative than people who would be elected in a Seattle district. Given that how will you get your agenda passed?

4) You’re running in a race with many Democrats who share similar positions. What separates you from the rest of the field?

5) Seattle and King County give more to the state than they get back. Part of this is reasonable things like the cost of providing education and social services in rural and suburban areas, but part of it is a lack of respect for Seattle and King County with the legislature that treats us as an ATM. How will you make sure your district gets its fair share of revenue without harming education or social services throughout the state?

…And they’re sent. I edited them a bit from when I first posted them.

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Happy Birthday, Bob!

by N in Seattle — Thursday, 5/24/12, 1:55 pm

Date of birth: May 24, 1941
Place of birth: Duluth, Minnesota
Name at birth: Robert Allen Zimmerman

In case you somehow don’t know anything about the man born 71 years ago today, here’s an eight-minute profile:

The Life and Career of Bob Dylan – The most popular videos are a click away

Whether he likes it or not, he is truly The Voice of a Generation. Dylan has created so many brilliant albums, so many wondrous songs … and he’s still out there playing music. He’s been running the Never Ending Tour since June, 1988 (that’s 24 years, folks!), and shows no sign of stopping.

I know, I know … no Seattle or Washington content whatsoever. Tough shit. Bob’s a special case.

If you desire more listening pleasure, click below to get to a few more videos (please excuse the brief ads on some of them).

[Read more…]

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Open Thread 5/24

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/24/12, 7:59 am

– The Democratic Conversation.

– Rob McKenna’s time at the County Council was totally above board.

– On the one hand Hustler is misogynistic is hardly a story on the other hand yiiiiiiiiikes.

– This is quite old and I don’t remember who gets the hat tip, but this map of Seattle’s racial profile as of the last census is pretty interesting.

– Some of these are a bit of a stretch of either “Seattle” or “under $25” but I can recommend many of them.

– Folklife is this weekend. The Flying Blind Blues Band at 2:05 on Friday features HA’s own Darryl.

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Walling Off a Public Good

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/23/12, 9:47 pm

This afternoon, for the first time since it opened, I walked by the new Chihuly exhibit. I wasn’t going to pay $19 to get in* so I can’t speak to the exhibit itself. Still, walking by I was struck by having to walk by it. Where once you could cut through the fun forest, the area is now fenced off.

That’s been true for some time, of course, but with the construction fencing down, and seeing Seattle Center how it’s going to be for the foreseeable future, now is as good as any time to reflect what we lost.

I know thinking of privately owned silly amusement park rides as a public amenity is over the top. But it’s more of one than a walled off courtyard. And I know there are plenty of areas in Seattle Center that are walled off. I’ve been to enough plays and concerts there. I know with the Science Center, the Children’s Museum and the Children’s Theater, (not to mention plenty of open space) Seattle Center is still more family friendly than much of the rest of the urban core. But it still feels like the loss of a public good.

[Read more…]

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