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Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
13.3% probability	86.7% probability
Mean of 48 seats	Mean of 52 seats

Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.

My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.

Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.

What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.

There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.

Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.

Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.

Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	44
Strong Democrat	2	46
Leans Democrat	2	2	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	1	1	1	52
Leans Republican	1	1	51
Strong Republican	9	50
Safe Republican	41

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		16	11772	51.1	48.9	94.5	5.5
AR		1&	451	32.2	67.8	0.0	100.0
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		4	3028	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
CT		1	773	66.2	33.8	100.0	0.0
FL		7	4408	46.2	53.8	0.0	100.0
GA		15	12247	49.9	50.1	46.3	53.7
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	441	59.2	40.8	99.5	0.5
IN		1	615	43.7	56.3	1.4	98.6
IA		1	753	43.6	56.4	0.8	99.2
KS		1	868	37.6	62.4	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.1	99.9
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1&	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		5	4295	44.0	56.0	0.0	100.0
NV		9	6281	48.2	51.8	2.5	97.5
NH		9	10733	50.7	49.3	84.4	15.6
NY		5	4024	60.1	39.9	100.0	0.0
NC		7	6807	47.4	52.6	0.1	99.9
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		8	7425	46.9	53.1	0.0	100.0
OK		3	2024	41.6	58.4	0.0	100.0
OK		3	1984	38.8	61.2	0.0	100.0
OR		2	2171	58.2	41.8	100.0	0.0
PA		14	11479	49.8	50.2	37.0	63.0
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.1	99.9
SD		1&	1275	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
UT		2	1242	43.2	56.8	0.1	99.9
VT		1&	987	66.4	33.6	100.0	0.0
WA		3	2183	51.1	48.9	76.1	23.9
WI		8	6410	48.5	51.5	3.8	96.2

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Vote you jerks. Get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow (Tuesday). Please vote for the Democrat in all the races against Republicans. And there are good resources statewide if you’re still unsure. You can also probably still volunteer with your favorite candidate. Tell your friends to vote. It’s crunch time. Let’s do this.

And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

John Oliver: Bail reform

Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle

SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West

Electile Dysfunction:

• Stephen: A Rare Correkshun: Michigan Voter Does Exist
• Trevor: Campaign attack ads are out of control this election season
• SNL: PBS NewsHour—Republican momentum
• Bill Maher: Democracy’s deathbed
• The New York Times: Millions suffered. Hundreds died. Greg Abbott will probably get re-elected anyway
• Steve Hofstetter: All the problems with Ron Johnson
• Vice News: Election conspiracies are disrupting the midterms
• Alex Wagner: Election workers become heroes and villains in midterm spotlight
• The Daily Show: Georgia Ninja voter with Roy Wood Jr. & Desi Lydic:

• Jordan Klepper: America unfollows Democracy
• Vox: The 3 possible outcomes of the 2022 US election
• Ari Melber: As Obama says Democracy on ballot, new calls to “Vote with your wallet” (Pharrell-Melber interview)
• WaPo: Obama warns against rising political violence
• Seth Meyers: Graham ordered to testify in Georgia and Mike Lindell says he’s monitoring midterms
• Alex Wagner: Federal judge rules against intimidating ballot box vigilantes in Arizona
• Parody Project: ♫ Waiting For The Miracle—Election Day Nov 2022 ♬
• NowThis: Why you should vote (in less than 90 seconds)
• The Late Show: ♫ Dr. Oz is Surfin’ PA ♬
• Seth Meyers: Obama campaigns against Kari Lake and warns about threats to democracy
• Trevor: Obama roasts Herschel Walker on the campaign trail
• Robert Reich: This one thing may stop Трамп from running for election
• Ari Melber: Трамп legal peril—Blows past Jan. 6 subpoena as DOJ eyes special counsel
• Chris Hayes: Vote to preserve your right to throw the bums out
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Voter Fraud is a Fraud ♬:

• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: LIVE from Kari Lake’s campaign headquarters
• The Daily Show: Трамп’s wild radio interview
• Al Franken: GET OUT THERE AND DOOR KNOCK!!!!!!!!!!
• Rachel Maddow: Трамп and acolytes are working to turn Republicans against elections (and succeeding)
• Bill Maher: Closing arguments
• Late Night: Jeff Wright holds a support group to help out voters
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reveals Barron’s costume
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell urges people not to vote early and it’s hilarious
• Seth Meyers: Republicans are already claiming the midterms are rigged unless they win

LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed

Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past

Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬

The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп is NOT Who Трампers Think He Is ♬
• J-L Cauvin: The one Трамп you should not make fun of
• Alex Wagner: Трамп’s stunt lawsuit backfires as NYAG uses it to show his bad intentions
• Jimmy Kimmel: Kanye has a thing for Hitler, Republicans set sights on abortion ban & the state of our Democrac
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ All We Want is a Little Bit of Normalcy ♬
• The Daily Show: OneVestigation—Keeping Трамп’s crime organized:

• Robert Reich: Debunking the Big Lies coming from Republicans
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s “Captain Comb-Over” Theme Song ♬
• Mark Fiore: Nutzy explains away right wing violence
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Republicans and The Monster They Created ♬
• The Late Show: This is how Kari Lake’s comments would sound if they were actually creatively edited
• Alex Wagner: Jan. 6 Committee to hear more Secret Service testimony as new answers yield new questions
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ He’s Fucking Nuts! ♬
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Two-faced talking points:

• Tommy Campbell: Don Jr. Cowers after mocking Paul Pelosi
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп sticks with Kanye, Herschel Walker’s lies add up & FAUX News’ fake fentanyl crisis
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Sen. Ron Johnson—Though Lacking in Substance, He’s Remarkably Dense! ♬

WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment

Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack

Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

If you haven’t voted yet, you should plan to do it this weekend. Dropboxes are convenient and you can get them in the mail this weekend, you can forget about them. I mentioned it during the primary, but the new location for the Downtown Seattle dropbox is closer to Lumen Field. But wherever you go to drop off your ballot, get it finished.

And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Bivalent and flu are keeping people safe.

I’m no lawyer, but I like the Attorney General’s lawsuit to block Albertsons’ dividend payments ahead of their merger with Kroger. Wait until the deal is complete. Or just don’t be a monopoly?

Again, I want to stress that I have no legal training whatsoever. But the AG’s office under Ferguson has had a good track record.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Election season is upon us. Next Tuesday is election day, so today is a great day to fill out your ballot, drop it off in a mailbox or ballot drop box, and then swing by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We’ll be discussing politics of all types over drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Good morning to the Weyerhaeuser workers whose strike just ended. It looks like a mixed bag in terms of gains, but hopefully the fixed costs instead of percentages will be meaningfully better health care.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And you better get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Stephen: Sec. Pete Buttigieg on why fixing America’s infrastructure is fun and exciting

LeagleEagle: Ghosts are legally real

Electile Dysfunction:

• Mark Fiore: The Republicans closing argument
• Alex Wagner: How election officials (and individuals) can guard against ballot box intimidation tactics
• The Late Show: This hospital is run by local political leaders
• Robert Reich: The huge problem with voting (it’s not what you think):

• Now This: Chelsey Hall on why local and state elections are crucial
• Jon Stewart: Interview excerpt with Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich
• WaPo: How states are countering the assault on elections
• Chris Hayes: Republicans set stage to rerun Трамп Big Lie playbook for 2022 midterms
• The Late Show: JD Vance neuters monkeys

Jon Stewart: Why are states undercutting their own workers?

Now This: How young people are leading the way on gun reform

The Lying, Cheating and Scheming Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Pigs may soon fly ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s debate lies & Mike Lindell’s tech fails
• Alex Wagner: Texas Republican stunt costs police millions and blocks other important spending
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS Tom Brady-Ron Desantis Bromance
• Chris Hayes: Pelosi home invasion comes after years of Трамп targeting the speaker
• Jimmy Kimmel: Repulsive Ted Cruz heckled in New York and Трамп & Marjorie Taylor Greene running mates!?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I LOVE America, so I DON’T Love Трамп ♬:

• The Late Show: ♫ Throw Ted Out Of The Ball Game ♬
• Katy Tur: Bob Woodward’s interviews with Трамп shows “His negligence was criminal” on covid
• Jordan Klepper finds out if democracy is dead
• Ari Melber: “Coward” Cruz hid in a closet amid insurrection then fueled Трамп’s Big Lie
• Bill Maher: Twenty four things you don’t know about Marjorie Taylor Greene
• Jordan Klepper: Is America headed to another civil war?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ This is NOT Where I Thought We’d Be Going ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump’s UNBELIEVABLE Woodward interviews, Adidas dumps Kanye & Herschel’s war on Halloween
• Stephen: Dr. Oz wants local officials in charge of abortions and another Herschel Walker abortion scandal
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Buckley Carlson Did NOT Get his Job Because of His Dad. Really ♬
• Liberal Redneck: Inflation and the GOP
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Rishi Sunak becoming Prime Minister
• Jimmy Kimmel: Lindsey Graham tries to save Herschel Walker and Kanye’s Hitler bombshell
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп Ain’t Man Enough to Dare to Testify ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Dr. Oz investigated over the fraud claims Fetterman pressed him on
• The Daily Show: 30 for 30—Ted Cruz, bleacher creature
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to attack on Paul Pelosi
• Rocky Mountain Mike: The Flaven — 2022:

• Ari Melber: Closing in on Трамп? Criminal probes intensify amid historic subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ CDC to Require Fox Vaccine ♬
• Alex Wagner: Migrant plane stunt haunts DeSantis as judge rejects effort to conceal records
• Chris Hayes: Трамп is planning to challenge PA 2022 election results
• Jimmy Kimmel: Another Herschel abortion scandal, Eric Трамп’s sad call to daddy & Kanye shows up uninvited
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Half Fast, but Proud of It ♬

Desi Lydic: Halloween—Why do we celebrate this?

Jon Stewart and friends: When states compete to win jobs, residents pay the price

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Geez. I am a bit wary of ascribing motives to people ahead of actually knowing. And random events do happen, so grain of salt here.

But it seems like the most likely explanation of someone attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband in their home is related to her politics. Awful awful stuff. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Get the bivalent, it’s great.

I would prefer actual facts to random speculation. But with Joe Kent and his campaign refusing to give any actual information about his previous employer, bad speculation is going to replace it. So, he probably wasn’t in the CIA. He maybe was given a bullshit make work job, or was just lying. I wish we had better information.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Hey…it’s the Tuesday after ballots dropped (in King County, anyway). Stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and we can discuss it.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

I don’t know the law well enough to guess how the judge will rule on allowing the Seattle Police Department to be added as a defendant in a sex trafficking case. But damn. There should be mechanisms to hold SPD accountable, even if a lawsuit isn’t it.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Spitting Image: Best of Biden

John Oliver: Transgender Rights, Part II

Electoral Dysfunction:

• Joy Reid: Florida’s saying votes aren’t welcome if you’re Black, brown, poor, or not going to vote GOP
• Liberal Redneck: Trashin’ Alabama for three straight minutes
• Mehdi Hasan: Ron DeSantis escalates his fascistic voter suppression efforts
• Jordan Klepper: Michigan midterm voters
• Alex Wagner: Election offices add protection against Трамп “Stop the Steal” conspiracy theorists
• Liberal Redneck: Voting Republican to “save the economy”
• NowThis: Slavery is on the ballot during the 2022 midterms
• Jonathan Mann: ♫ Will Dr Oz Eat A Cheesesteak? Ah No. ♬

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Alex Wagner with Trevor Noah: American racism vs. overt racism in South Africa

Chris Hayes: What abortion ban with exception for “life of the mother” really means

WaPo: How SNL’s January 6 committee hearing compared to reality

The Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

• Trevor: Трамп doesn’t find Trevor funny
• Alex Wagner: DeSantis’ new education restrictions puts Florida teachers’ certification on the line
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Reacts to Steve Bannon Going to Prison
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Nancy Pelosi, January 6th’s Commander-in-Chief ♬
• Rocky Mountain Mike: ♫ Ivana’s Casket ♬
• Mark Fiore: Your very own social network
• Ari Melber: Bannon becomes first Трамп vet sentenced to prison in a Jan. 6 probe
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: “The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress” award:

• Chris Hayes: House inquiry finds Трамп charged Secret Service “exorbitant” rates for hotel stays
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ D.J.T., or Doing Jail Time ♬
• J-L Cauvin: The greatest love story of all time—Clarence and Ginni Thomas
• Robert Reich: The case for prosecuting The Dotard Трамп
• Ari Melber: Roadmap to coup culpability—Трамп hit with historic subpoena
• Tommy Campbell: Herschel Walker’s prop badge fail & Трамп hotels scammed taxpayers
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Why Трамп Should Be Arrested ♬
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп lawyers prove they don’t know why they asked for a Special Master
• SNL: Jan 6th final hearing
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Punch Trump, Get Happy ♬
• Ari Melber: “MAGA trifecta of crimes’—DOJ vet on legal heat for Трамп and Bannon
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s Secret Service Secret Shame ♬:

• Legal Eagle: Alex Jones’s billion dollar bad day (and why it’s going to get worse)
• Rachel Maddow: Report reveals greater extent of Трамп admin interference in CDC than previously known
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ No President Has Done More for Israel Than Трамп Has ♬
• Alex Wagner: Трамп’s conspiracy theory collides with reality in another embarrassing Durham failure
• Ari Melber: From “FUCK Трамп anthem” to mass protests, new report shows how people power can win
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Trump & Taft, Twins? ♬
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп’s 14-page response to Jan. 6 subpoena

Jon Stewart: Why Americans hate paying taxes

Alex Wagner: Peril of abortion bans to women’s health becomes dreaded reality

Jonathan Mann: ♫ Debt Forgivness 4eva ♬

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

A little drizzle and wind, and you can breathe again in Downtown Seattle. It’s maybe a bit hazy, but it’s nice. Greater rain will get the rest of it.

Going forward, we’ll have to figure out how to not make this a yearly thing. Better forestry practices and fixing — or realisticly preventing the worst of — global warming are obviously priorities. Also, maybe building code updates so less smoke gets inside.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Seriously, the bivalent booster is a miracle.