Obama | Romney |
99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
Mean of 326 electoral votes | Mean of 212 electoral votes |
Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.
There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AZ | PPP | 04-Jun | 05-Jun | 791 | 3.5 | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
CO | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 799 | 3.5 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
FL | Quinnipiac | 12-Jun | 18-Jun | 1697 | 2.4 | 46 | 42 | O+4 |
IA | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1086 | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
ME | WBUR | 13-Jun | 14-Jun | 506 | 4.4 | 48 | 34 | O+14 |
MI | Mitchell | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 750 | 3.6 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
MI | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1010 | 3.1 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
MI | Rasmussen | 14-Jun | 14-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
MI | Baydoun | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 1783 | 2.3 | 46.9 | 45.5 | O+1.4 |
MT | Rasmussen | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 400 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
NE | PNA | 11-Jun | 13-Jun | 601 | — | 40 | 52 | R+12 |
NV | PPP | 07-Jun | 10-Jun | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
NH | Rasmussen | 20-Jun | 20-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 43 | O+5 |
NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 31-May | 04-Jun | 1065 | 2.9 | 56 | 33 | O+23 |
WA | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 1073 | 3.0 | 54 | 41 | O+13 |
WA | Elway | 13-Jun | 16-Jun | 408 | 5.0 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
WI | Marquette | 13-Jun | 15-Jun | 594 | 4.1 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
WI | Rasmussen | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 47 | R+3 |