Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the home of the Sikh Temple shooter in Cudahy, WI.
This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!
by Lee — ,
Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the home of the Sikh Temple shooter in Cudahy, WI.
This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!
by Goldy — ,
[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]
Book of Mormon, Ether 11:14
And it came to pass that Ethem did execute judgment in wickedness all his days; and he begat Moron. And it came to pass that Moron did reign in his stead; and Moron did that which was wicked before the Lord.
Discuss.
by N in Seattle — ,
I’m fortunate.
When I was laid off from my job last month, I was eligible for continuation of my health insurance. I have enough money saved up that I can pick up the large portion of the premiums that used to be contributed by my employer. I was persistent enough, and knowledgeable enough, to navigate through the shoals of bureaucracy that lay between employer-based and formerly-employed insured status.
It was frustrating for several weeks. For instance, I wasn’t allowed to apply for continuation coverage while still insured. Then I couldn’t write a check for the first month of coverage until my application for continuation coverage was received, processed, and accepted. It took over a week after my check was deposited before my status was updated from no coverage to insured. Even after that change was acknowledged, it required a call to the PBM (pharmacy benefit manager), a business separate from the insurer, to update my prescription insurance.
When it all settled out, the insurance was reinstated retroactively to the first day of the month. But I still had to make sure that the claims rejected while I was in limbo were resubmitted (I haven’t yet contacted the lab that drew and tested a blood sample). Every one of those steps wastes money—customer service operators who could have helped someone else, clerks who had to open, photocopy, and file my applications, eligibility assessors who had to process my paperwork, personnel at my providers who had to send my claims to the insurer for a second time, computers that had to rerun those claims. It was only a little bit of money each time, but of course those infinitesimal amounts add up to big bucks when multiplied by thousands or millions of incidents. At least I get my EOBs electronically, so I didn’t kill many trees by generating all those papers twice.
My office visits and lab tests hadn’t made it through the providers’ billing systems by the time I became retroactively covered, so they had no visible impact on my wallet. Because the office personnel don’t know the alleged prices of their services, they probably couldn’t require up-front payment anyway. Not so when it comes to prescriptions … I had to pay the full retail price before I could get my medications. Once covered, I went back to the drugstore to have my credit card reimbursed for the cash I’d laid out.
As it happens, I take six “maintenance medicines”, prescriptions that I refill every month. All six are generics, costing appreciably less than the brand name versions of those medications. Even so, the full retail price of a month’s-worth of my meds was rather hefty — $445.74 (brand names would have run $864.67). After my coverage was restored retroactively, I went back to Bartell so that they could resubmit the prescriptions to my insurance. After applying the (appreciably lower) price negotiated by the insurer, and after accounting for the portion of that price paid by the insurer, my out of pocket cost for those six prescriptions came to just $11.98. I have very good insurance.
Similarly, were I not insured, the price of an office visit would be $219.00. My insurer had negotiated an allowed amount of $83.01 for that sort of visit, only about 38% of the alleged retail price. And my out of pocket portion of the insurer-negotiated price comes to a mere $12.45. To reiterate, I have very good insurance.
I knew it would work out as it did. And I had the resources to ease the difficulties of the bureaucratic delays. But suppose I didn’t have a credit card. Suppose I lived from paycheck to paycheck, with only a debit card and a meager bank account. Then, I would have had a problem. Then, I might have been required to choose between maintaining my health and buying groceries, or maybe even between medicines and rent. Forced into such a dilemma, filling prescriptions would undoubtedly fall behind food and shelter.
Being unemployed and uninsured, then, is a double triple-whammy:
I could go on. I could mention the uncertainties faced by providers; because of the myriad insurers with myriad rules and myriad methods of bill submission, they never know how much they’ll actually receive in reimbursement for their services (and they must hire additional staff to handle all those procedures). I could argue for something like Medicare for all, or for a sensible healthcare system like those in civilized nations (there are many models to choose from, all of which are better and less costly than ours).
Instead, I’ll just thank my lucky stars that my layoff isn’t the kind of financial and health disaster that it could be if I didn’t have resources. And I’ll pay my insurance premiums every month.
[Cross-posted from Peace Tree Farm]
by Darryl — ,
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:
The debate between Inslee and McKenna.
Who is Paul Ryan?
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:
Pap: GOP bound to fail.
Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!
Clint on Obama:
Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.
The Democratic plan for gun control.
Veterans who support Obama.
Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?
Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.
Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.
Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Labor Day weekend is here once again. And while we can all enjoy the barbeques, the sales, and Bumbershoot, it’s important to remember what this season is all about.
That’s right it’s LABOR Day. So when co-workers, shop clerks, and bank tellers tell me to “have a good weekend” or a “good long weekend” without mentioning labor, I let them know what’s up. When that well intentioned acquaintance wishes me the wrong words, I have no choice to tell them: “It’s Labor day. Labor. Labor. Don’t you celebrate LABOR DAY?”
You see, there’s a war on Labor Day in this country, and make no mistake about it, we are a laboring country. This country was founded by people who labored, and if it was good enough for them, it’s good enough for the rest of us. And you know, most Americans still labor today. The silent majority shouldn’t take it any longer. We need to boldly proclaim LABOR day.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Before the Republican convention, I’d have said that the GOP ID card requirements to vote in various states were mostly going after minorities and the poor. And that the suppression of the elderly that goes along with it is a side effect against a group of people who generally vote for them: Suppress more black votes than elderly votes, and you still get a more Republican electorate.
But after hearing Clint Eastwood’s speech* I think they want to suppress them because the elderly people they’re around have lost it. Now, don’t get me wrong, Clint Eastwood has had a fantastic career as an actor and a director. And I think he deserves the right vote.
But if you’re a Republican, and all of the old people around you are yelling at “Obama” in an empty chair, well, at a certain point, you don’t want them voting either. I see it now. My advice would be to spend time with a wider array of the elderly.
* And for serious, I just listened to it on the radio, so I didn’t realize he was talking to an empty chair. I’m not sure if that makes it worse or better, but at least it fills in some gaps.
by Carl Ballard — ,
7:30: I’m listening to it on NPR, but you can watch it here too.
7:36: He accepts the nomination for president. Phew.
7:37: If you say you’re humble, you aren’t.
7:38: First wrong thing: Janesville is not a small town. He’s making references to Ryan’s speech that I didn’t see. Whatever.
7:40: If you have to say you’re being positive, you’re probably not being positive.
7:41: He says nobody who came here doubted they would do better. Um, remember when your family fled the country because as you said “religious persecution“?
7:43: He’s listing all the problems after Obama got into office, not noting that the economy went to shit before Obama got there.
7:44: He says “I wish President Obama had succeeded” but maybe he should have urged his party to work with the president when they said defeating him was their top priority.
7:45: By the way, wasn’t Clint Eastwood awful? Was he drunk?
7:45: God Bless Neil Armstrong. I agree.
7:46: “When the world needs you to do really big stuff, you need an American.” Diplomacy will be fun under him.
7:48: Parents are more important than government. Um, sure, but we can have both.
7:50: Mitt Romney likes his parents. OK.
7:50: He thinks he made it on his own because he wasn’t in Michigan. Um, no.
7:52: Anne’s “job was a lot harder and more important than mine.” All right. Maybe make a little less money and spend more time having helped with her job.
7:52: God God God God Family Community God. God.
7:55: “Jobs to (Obama) are about government.” What?
7:58: He’s waxing poetic about commerce. Says we should encourage taking risks, but doesn’t say how maybe a safety net would get people more willing to take risks.
8:00: Romney says Obama can’t say you’re better off than when he took office. Um, the economy was in free fall when Obama took office. We are doing better. There’s still a long way to go, but yes, things are better.
8:01: “What America needs are jobs, lots of jobs.” Well, we need good jobs.
8:03: He says the military creates jobs. Those ARE GOVERNMENT JOBS.
8:06: “I have a plan to create 12 Million new jobs.”
– Drill the shit out of everything
– Education
– Make trade work. When nations cheat, there will be consequences. Yet, he doesn’t say how he’s going to do that.
– Cut the deficit. That isn’t a plan (also, it won’t work).
– Champion small businesses. Says he’ll repeal and replace Obama care, but doesn’t say with what.
8:07: We need a president who will respect women. Then by the time I finish typing that sentence, he attacks women’s ability to control their own bodies.
8:08: Now he’s making fun of the fact that Obama thinks global warming is a thing (will help turn back the rise of the oceans). I guess that whole global warming thing is no longer operative.
8:09: He’s lied about the apology tour, so naturally the crowd is chanting USA!
8:11: Now he says we need 23 Million more jobs. But he just said his plan is only half that.
8:12: Is he cribbing Obama’s 2004 convention speech? I mean I know there were a lot of cliches in that, but it really sounds like a poor man’s version of it.
8:13: We’re done.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– There was a debate last night between Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna.
– Fuck all of these hurdles to the Burke-Gillman Trail missing link. It might make it harder to get to 0 road fatalities.
– Seattle parks’ computer labs will be open during the rest of the library closure.
– Scab refs will be trouble.
– Park(ing) Day is coming up.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
96.9% probability of winning | 3.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.
Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CO | Keating | 21-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 1472 | 2.6 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
CT | PPP | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 881 | — | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
FL | CNN/TIME | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 895 | 3.5 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
IA | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 1244 | 2.8 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
MI | Mitchell | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 1277 | 2.7 | 46.6 | 46.7 | R+0.1 |
MO | Mason-Dixon | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 625 | 4.0 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
MO | Rasmussen | 22-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
NV | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 831 | 3.4 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 23-Aug | 25-Aug | 710 | 3.5 | 51 | 37 | O+14 |
NC | CNN/Time | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 766 | 3.5 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
NC | SurveyUSA | 18-Aug | 23-Aug | 540 | 4.3 | 43 | 43 | tie |
OH | Columbus Dispatch | 15-Aug | 25-Aug | 1758 | 2.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 21-Aug | 23-Aug | 601 | 4.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
VA | Rasmussen | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.
Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.
The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.
Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two:
In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.
The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls:
Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll:
Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.
In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.
Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I know, I know. Everyone will tell you nothing of note happens at the conventions. They’re theater and the most newsworthy thing that happened, aside from the weather, is a few supporters of one person yelled things during the vote and someone did something that might be racist.
And so we’re left with the speeches, the videos, and the rest of the theater. But, you know what: the theater is important. The speeches are important. The parties, and especially the presidential candidates, set the tone of the rest of their campaigns at the convention. They lock themselves into policies. They showcase rising stars. They get people paying attention.
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Material for tonight’s discussions: The hurricane that is the G.O.P. convention, Rob McKenna’s refusal to release his tax returns, and, perhaps, today’s Arizona, Vermont, Alaska and Oklahoma elections ….
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.
With 235 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
by Darryl — ,
Rob McKenna is refusing to release his tax returns:
Washington gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna said Tuesday he will not release any of his tax returns, dismissing the matter as a distraction from important policy discussions.
McKenna, the state’s attorney general, said he has disclosed enough information in the personal financial forms that candidates file with the state. He called the tax-return debate – both here and nationally – a “phony issue.”
McKenna, a Republican, said his political rivals are attempting “to change the subject away from the real issues of the state.”
Democratic rival Jay Inslee, a former congressman, released five years of tax returns last week, and his campaign had called on McKenna to do the same.
I’m sure McKenna wants you to believe that he is taking a principled stand in refusing to release his tax returns, but his recalcitrance is problematic for the gubernatorial wannabe.
First, even if the “principled stand” hypothesis is true, standing tall with Mitt Romney isn’t going to endear him to Washingtonians. The state is just not that into Mittens. In other words, if McKenna wants to peddle himself as a “different kind of Republican,” one that is palatable to the voters of our state, he shouldn’t emulate, pretend to be, or come off as, in any way, an entitled one-percenter.
Romney has good reason to hide his tax returns. He’s done the political calculation. Releasing his tax returns would be much more damaging than disclosure. And it really is understandable—the fabulously wealthy have more opportunity to dodge taxes in ways that, if disclosed to the rest of us, would induce a bout of severe vertigo followed by repulsion-induced wrenching.
But McKenna…not so many tax dodging options. So if McKenna is “standing on principle,” he takes all the damage of non-discosure without any of the benefits.
(And he will take damage from this. Washingtonians are big on transparency. Don’t think for a moment that McKenna’s non-disclosure is going to be swept under the rug.)
So, really, if McKenna is merely standing on “principle”, he’s foolishly hurting himself.
On the other hand, maybe Rob isn’t a fool. Maybe he has done the calculation of relative political damage from disclosure versus non-disclosure. And he came down on the side of hiding his tax returns. If so, what is Rob McKenna hiding?
Is McKenna being foolish here? Or does he really have something to hide in his tax returns?
Intelligent voters want to know.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– I haven’t finished this piece on Obama and race yet, but so far it’s quite interesting.
– These are my favorite protesters at the RNC so far (may be NSFW).
– I realize the problems are worse in California, but wouldn’t it be nice to have a governor who could rally businesses behind raising taxes?
– I’m not thrilled that super PAC’s are setting the agenda, but that’s a dumb resolution that Koster sponsored.
by Carl Ballard — ,
A hearty congrats to everyone who worked the fire.
Firefighters have extinguished nearly all of the Taylor Bridge Fire between Cle Elum and Ellensburg, except for a few hotspots, within 40 miles of fire line built around the burn area.
Containment was at 91 percent on Saturday morning, according to a news release issued as command of the firefighting effort was transferred to a smaller, regional incident management team from Southwest Washington. Members of the original incident management team continued to work with the regional team that took command Saturday.
Restrictions were lifted Saturday in areas of Kittitas County previously under level 1 evacuation orders. Hidden Valley Road remains closed at its intersection with Lambert Road, and Lambert Road is closed 1.5 miles east of its intersection with Taylor Road. State Route 10 remains closed at Taylor Bridge for construction.
by Darryl — ,