Three days and three new polls in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R). Today’s poll is by Rasmussen and shows Murray leading Rossi 51% to 46%.
These new results are completely consistent with polls released over the past two days. Two days ago, an Elway poll showed Murray leading Rossi 50% to 41%. And yesterday we saw the release of a CNN, Time, and Opinion Research poll that had Murray leading Rossi by a remarkable 53% to 44%.
I’ll post more analysis of this new poll and some joint poll analyses later today.
The repukes will spin this by saying Rossi is closing the gap.
Looks like Rossi peaked about 6 years too early.
Wait for it … some wingnut is going to claim that it shows Rossi gaining an incredible 5 points in just three days! By the time of the election, Rossi will have over 300% of the vote!
Of course, the important figure is that Murray is consistently over 50% in all three polls. Rossi can’t rely on winning over independents. He has to convince more than half of the likely Murray voters to change their mind, or a very significant percentage of them to not vote at all.
Fat chance of that.
Correction – Rossi has to convince more than half of the “gap” between likely Rossi and Murray voters to change their minds.
Problem for progressive voters is that there’s a tendency for us to believe these polls too much — and neglect the contributions and work necessary for the Murray campaign to actually realize the victory in November. No slouching!
Look, Rossi’s closing the gap! Tea Party 2010!
There’s a hell of a lot of blue on this page:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....html#polls
Darryl’s statistical analysis are beyond my abilities, so I’ll settle for a quick and dirty “average” of the numbers of these last three polls. The results are:
Murray: 51.33%
Rossi: 43.67%
Murray’s lead of 7.67 points is well beyond the margin of error of all three polls.
So to win, Rossi has to
(a) win over ALL uncommitted voters, PLUS
(b) convince 1.33% (plus one vote) of the likely voters who had already indicated a preference for Murray to switch to Rossi, instead.
As the uncommitteds chose sides, that task is going to be even tougher for Rossi, since he has to make even more committed Murray voters change their minds.
And the more you get to know Rossi, the less you want to vote for him.
# 5: Agreed. It’s all about turnout. And with the mail-in ballots, voters have to be convinced at least two weeks before the election. After that, you are campaigning to an increasingly smaller audience (those who haven’t mailed their ballots yet).
Wait, Rossi gained two points just by having a different poll. That is staggering; and he gained five points just by having Rasmussen do some polling. Got to love polls. NOW! GET OUT THE VOTE! MURRAY AND WA NEED IT!
Given the well-established Rasmussen bias, this one shows the largest Murray margin of all.
I stand by my earlier statements — Murray by 11%.
Of course, Libtarded Goldy and his minions say nary a thing about the Rasumssen poll prior to this one when it first came out. Oh I get it, polls are only posted, discussed, and even acknowledged when they sway towards the left. Hypocritical tenderhanded behavior, you bet! How’s that begging for money…(ahem)….”fund drive” going douche-bag? Just askin’.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co.....urray_d_46
@12 TJ spews on 09/16/2010 at 12:45 pm,
Fair & Balanced discussion about Rasmussen occurs over at Faux News.
In the meantime we’ll all shed a tear for your passion the righteous.
Wingnuts devouring wingnuts over Christine O’Donnell.
http://mediamatters.org/research/201009150047
LMFAO!!
TJ @12,
“Of course, Libtarded Goldy and his minions say nary a thing about the Rasumssen poll prior to this one when it first came out.”
And you’d be wrong there, Squirt. I did do an analysis of the previous Rasmussen poll.
I’ve pretty much done analyses for all of the polls in this race, although sometimes with delays from traveling when a poll came out.
“Oh I get it, polls are only posted, discussed, and even acknowledged when they sway towards the left. Hypocritical tenderhanded behavior, you bet!”
I hate to shake ya, Squirt, but this is a liberal blog with its biases made explicitly clear, so it wouldn’t be at all unreasonable or hypocritical to just post good news for liberals and bad news for conservatives. But with the poll analyses on my blog, I try to do ’em regardless of the results. I don’t post all of them on HA, but that is a function of Goldy beating me to it (e.g.) or the news being old by the time I can do the work.
@15
Darryl’s pretty fair about his treatment of the polls IMO, whatever one think’s of his politics.
@12
There’s way more blue, than red.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....html#polls
Any one poll doesn’t mean much, but a whole bunch of them putting the same person on top sure does.
Rasmussen’s a tool of teh liburl media and I don’t believe teh liburl media. Real American’s aren’t going to vote for the communist in tenny shoes. Come November that bitch will be back where she belongs, barefoot, in the kitchen, and baking her man a pie!
Rasmussen is the most reliable poll out there. A 5 point lead for Murray in Rasmussen makes sense when Elway says Murray has a 9 point lead.
By the way, O’Donnell has raised $1.15 million on-line since her primary victory. At least that is what her website says — perhaps as reliable as her prior claims of having a college degree.
Christine is very, very afraid of mice with human brains.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311946,00.html
11. N in Seattle spews:
Well established bias?
By whom? The Daily Kos. har-har-har
I suspect this poll is fairly close to reality IF the election were today.
Murray has dumped a ton of $$ into ads that ought to have some impact.
But remember, the biased Rasmussen had Brown & Coakley tied on Election Day and Brown won by 5 points.
Dems love to say Rasmussen is biased…with no proof. They say it enough, they even believe it!
Remember the 1st time Rossi ran against Gregoire? He was waaaaaaay down in the polls and no one took him seriously…them, kerpow!
Rope-a-dope it’s called.
Rossi had no chance last time with the anti-Bush sentiment. But that has changed. Now it is anti-ObaMao. No doubt Rossi has a lot of work to do. We’ll see. If he gets more than 7 points down in Rasmussen, he will lose. 5 points is tough…but not impossible.
[incredibly cute Christine]O’DONNELL: They are — they are doing that here in the United States. American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains.
Can these mice vote for Republicans?
Better make this posting on-topic, to be sure.
If any of these mice exist in this state, and if they can vote, can we be sure that Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, CNN/Time and Elway are properly surveying them for their preferences in the Rossi-Murray Senate race? :)
And by constantly referring to those that disagree with him, Darryl and his other brother Darryl accomplish exactly what again by using the condescending word ‘squirt’? Sounds like those with the smaller penises in the locker room and their related literal “penis” envy once again. Poor twins. :) Good luck with that, and also in that important search for the right Psychiatrist for the both of you! Sincerely. ‘Night Libtards.