A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race was released yesterday. The SurveyUSA poll conducted from June 7th through the 9th asked 637 likely voters who they would vote for in an election held now. Governor Christine Gregoire received 50.4% of the “votes”, Dino Rossi received 46.9%, “other” received 1.4%, and only 1.3% were undecided.
The +3.5% lead for Gregoire is substantially narrower than her +11% lead in a May 12 Rasmussen poll. But the current result falls squarely in line with all other recent polls: a late-April Elway poll that gave Gregoire a +5% lead, a mid-April SurveyUSA poll that gave Gregoire a +4% lead, and a Rassmussen poll in late March that gave Gregoire a +1% lead.
The current SurveyUSA poll results are within the 4.0% margin of error, which means that, given a sample of only 637 likely voters, the probability that Gregoire’s lead is “real” (in an election held now) is something under 95%. This is commonly called a “statistical tie,” but we can do better than that. We can estimate the probability that Gregoire would beat Rossi (and vice versa) in an election held now.
I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 637 voters each election. Each voter in each election had a 50.4% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 46.9% chance of voting for Rossi, and a 3.5% chance of voting for neither.
Gregoire won 824,097 of the elections, and Rossi took 9,687. In other words, the poll results suggest that, for an election held now, Gregoire would have an 83.2% probability of winning the election and Rossi would have a 16.8% chance of winning the election.
Here is the distribution of number of votes (converted into percentages) from the million elections (Rossi victories are those to the left of the red “tie” line, Gregoire victories are those to the right):
The good news for Rossi is that this poll places him back in the running, unlike the previous Rasmussen result. Rossi may have been “unlucky” during that poll—that is, just by chance, perhaps too many Gregoire supporters were polled. Alternatively, Gregoire may have experienced a large surge in support last month.
The bad news for Rossi is that Gregoire has held the lead for six polls in a row now, and has led in seven out of the eight polls taken this year. (The last time Rossi led was in a March 5th Rasmussen poll, in which he held a slim +1% advantage.)
With poll after poll showing Gregoire up, it becomes very difficult to attribute her leads to chance. In other words, the consistency across polls suggest that Gregoire really does hold a solid lead over Rossi—at least at this point in the election season.
Rossi = Bush
A retreat to corruption, arrogance, cronyism and favors to those (BIAW) who only want the worst for this State.
Spare some bucks for Chris Gregoire. We can’t let Rossi, this mean-spirited, disaster-in-the-making come to pass.
I’m a bit dissapointed that Gregoire’s campaign hasn’t been very visable to those who aren’t very interested in politics on a daily basis (reading newspapers, blogs, etc.). She needs to trumpet her accomplishments, or at least have some do it for her, on radio & TV. I know she is probably saving money for campain buys in Sept. & October, but as governor she has the ability to be in the news a lot more than she is.
The lesson she should have taken from 2004 is that it isn’t enough to post your resume and rely upon the news media to point out the relative gap in qualifications between yourself and your challenger.
If I were in charge I’d have someone in front of a microphone every day talking about how much better Washington’s economy is doing than the rest of the country (especially in the West), how Washington government ranked near the highest in terms of cost efficiency and delivery of services, and reminding people that Rossi’s “environmental plan” simply copied 2/3 of the plan which Gregoire is already implementing (and the remaining one-third is simply nonsense).
I guess we could simply wait for Rossi’s campaign to self-destruct. But since I have been calling upon Republicans to post the accomplishments of Reichart in Congress, rather than simply running down his opponant, then I feel compelled to do the same with my own candidate in the Governor’s race. Fortunately, it’s relatively easy to list Gregoire’s accomplishments and qualifications, compared to Rossi’s.
But I came in rather late as a Gregoire supporter. I was pretty luke-warm in 2004, as I thought she could have done a better job in the AG office and the Dept. of Ecology. But she’s turned out to be an excellent governor. Anybody who can get the doctors and lawyers to compromise and not put us through another “tort reform” battle is a bit of a miracle-worker, and deserves my vote.
Let’s put it this way: voters know Christine Gregoire, who has served an a variety of posts in the Washington State executive branch for thirty years. Voters don’t know Rossi very well, as much due to his own reticence to articulate his extreme right-wing stances as anything, and when they get to know him, they won’t like what they find, at least not here in blue WA.
It also seems blindingly obvious that Chris Gregoire has NOT yet hit her ceiling of support–but I’ll bet Dino already has.
Oh, and Dino hurt himself by refusing to take a stand on i-612, was it? The transportation package repeal? That’s leadership you can find cowering in a corner sobbing that he won the last time.
Hey, what’s Dino’s stand on Plan B contraception?
The question is will those same republican cheaters that the republican judge found voted illegally for Rossi last time try to scam the system again?
Interesting data-points:
– Rossi gets 58% to 31% of the Hispanic vote. That Republican/GOP immigration
platform sure won’t help him retain that.
– Moderates like Gregoire, but Independents back Rossi.
– 32% of pro-choicers still back Rossi. This should be an issue.
– A larger percent of those supporting Rossi feel they could change their mind.
– Gregoire only gets 53% of Metro Seattle.
– Rossi wins with xenophobes that fear terrorists and worry about Social
Security and the economy.
BTW, she has a diary up at Kos today.
@ 5: They are probably all out trying to register their dogs to vote.
It’s only logical that Gregoire would lead Rossi in every poll. She’s the most qualified governor Washington has ever had; she has more credentials than a blue-ribbon committee; she has commonsense plans for our state and a solid executive track record; and she’s running against a totally unqualified greasy little real estate salesman whose only management experience is supervising one part-time janitor while a college student, and whose only accomplishment is kicking 40,000 poor kids off health care. The only thing surprising about these polls is how much support Rossi has! Makes you wonder what the hell 46% of Washington’s citizens are thinking.
The more I look at that poll, the stranger the results become. Maybe the polling wonks can explain it to me. It seems Gregoire’s lead cross all age ranges. And I understand Gregoire’s lead among women. But the Rossi lead among men is a bit surprising, I would expect it to be more in line with the general results. Also, it seems to give Rossi more cross-over votes among Democrats than I would expect.
Given the turnout for Obama among new (young) voters, I would have expected Gregoire to have a significantly higher results there. But I’m wondering if the fact that most young people don’t even have land lines, and use cell phones only, might be distorting that result. The polling may be missing them entirely.
As for the Hispanic vote, it doesn’t make any sense to me for Hispanics generally to be upset with the GOP but leaning towards Rossi. Sounds like some voter education might be in order there – is he advertising a lot on Hispanic radio stations? Maybe he should be cornered into taking some positions on worker rights and immigration issues, and we will see how well those figures hold up.
A couple of my co-workers are new citizens (one from China, the other from Korea). The one from China reports that one of her neighbors has an organized effort to “educate” new voters. His theme: “Democrats are communists who want to take away all your money and give it to the lazy black people who do drugs and are on welfare”. Yep, that’s what she reported that he said – no paraphrasing, pretty much a direct quote. Democrats may need to do some more work in the immigrant communities to make sure they hear both sides of the issues.
Goldy:
(off topic, sort of)
Did you RECRUIT the McCain campaign to run ads on this blog?
Or did they approach you?
My Gawwwwwd. Anyone voting for any Republiconvict should be committed.
I’m serious.
Rossi is a fraud. Just like every other Republiconvict.
Dino = Democrat in name only
Dino Rossi = Moderate in name only
or Wolf in sheep clothing
or anti-abortion, anti-environment, anti-labor, and anti-education trogolodite republican in lockstep with Bush.
Rossi drives a hybrid gas guzzler – he thinks that makes him an enviromentalist and the gullible press reports it. This is the same idiot who said that he “wasn’t sure” if global warming was happening. He wouldn’t know a scientific fact if it hit him on the head.
Jim,
“Did you RECRUIT the McCain campaign to run ads on this blog? Or did they approach you?”
I think the correct answer is “Neither.” Rather, Google ads finds certain “keywords” on Goldy’s page and feeds related ads to his page automatically.
Not that I care for Rossi but doesn’t Mayor Nickels also drive a hybrid gas guzzler as was discussed when he wanted to make taxis use cars that get 30+ mpg?
Gregoire, in all reality, leads by at least 8-10 points. This survey was only of 900 people.
I would like to see someone put up a minor party presidential ticket on the November ballot with the name “G.O.P. Party”. Hopefully, with some really flaky candidates.
That way, the presidential race will have “Democratic Party”, “Republican Party”, “Libertarian Party”, “G.O.P. Party”, and probably several other minor parties. Hopefully, whoever files under the “G.O.P. Party” will come accross as a total flake.
Since Dino Rossi has chosen to run as “G.O.P. Party”, instead of “Republican Party”, he will look as a real dumb-ass in November, running on the “G.O.P. Party” ticket with some total flake for president, instead of the “Republican Party” ticket, headed by the semi-respectable and semi-popular John McCain. Rossi thought that “Republican Party” would hurt him by associating him with McCain, but if we could get a total flake “G.O.P. Party”, the association would hurt him even worse.
17 RP
I think the “total flake” for president on the GOP Party ticket is Ron Paul.
But isn’t this whole structure of weird names solely about primaries and not the general election? hmmm….nope, it’s the general too. Ridiculous.
So when the polls for Gregoire outnumber the polls for Rossi, say, 10-to-1, will we get to say she’s ahead? Will any Republican admit that it will be an uphill battle?
Or will they remain convinced that once people hear THE TRUTH about this thrity-year public servant as served up by Dino Lossi and the BIAW, voters will flock to them?
Goldy,
As Benjamin Disraeli is quoted as saying, “lies, damned lies and statistics.”
The fact remains that a well-financed incumbent should be getting much more than 50% of the vote — especially if she’s had a friendly Legislature.
The fact remains that Rossi is doing much better with fundraising this time.
The fact remains that Dean “Mr. Voter Fraud” Logan is tainting elections in LA County now.
And that’s just for starters.
Just like Obama, the polls should not be this close.
The Real Mark,
Be careful what you wish for Wingnut. Another poll just came out for this match-up.
@20 The fact remains that BIAW’s lackey, Dino Rossi, will lose to Gregoire. It won’t even be close. Not that that will stop you and every other commie-fascist Republican from whining your ass off.
Darryl,
I sincerely apologize for giving Goldy “credit” for your idiotic post.
It remains that both Obama and Gregoire should have MUCH greater leads than they really do.
Also… why do you imply that these games should mean anything when you claim on your website that your simulations are NOT projections of election day?
If you actually knew anything about consumer behavior, you’d know that your little games mean nothing without context and more variables. For example: current political news, impact of campaign expenditures, time before election day, and so on. For all we know, the people being polled have given very little thought to the WA gubernatorial election and the poll results are nowhere near indicative of November.
An incumbent should have much greater than 50%. She and Rossi are, essentially, starting out tied — not good news for her. The race is Rossi’s to lose because she’s had the last 4 years to make her case and he’s just getting started. He has FAR more upside.
If you were intellectually honest, you’d factor in the typical % gain an incumbent can expect during a campaign vs. what gains the challenger can make.
@23 “He has FAR more upside.”
Upside? He’s a Republican in the year 2008. He’s gonna lose and he’s gonna lose big.
Steve @ 24
“Upside,” “headroom” or whatever you want to call it.
Gregoire has had 4 years to define herself by her actions. If she’d done a good job in office, she wouldn’t have a 56% “fair” or “poor” rating. If Gregoire had done a good job, she could say that she’ll give the public four more years of the same and she’d have evidence. Unfortunately, that won’t fly with 56% of the public. She will have to somehow convince people that she’ll be better / different than she has been since 2004.
Rossi, on the other hand, has a generally positive history in the Legislature (balanced budget, etc.) and can paint a picture of how he’d run the state — thus giving him more headroom to improve his polling.
Besides… Only getting 50.4% of the polling vote means that Gregoire is not getting the advantages inherent in a “blue” state. While getting some Republican votes is expected by “the devil you know,” she is only getting 85% of Democrat votes.
The Real Mark,
“It remains that both Obama and Gregoire should have MUCH greater leads than they really do.”
Uh-huh. Let’s examine this empirically, shall we. Let’s look at McGavick–Cantwell…
Pollster Date M% C%
Rasmussen 8May06 41 46
Zogby 9May06 42 50.2
Strategic V. 21May06 42 47
Rasmussen 13Jun06 40 44
Strategic V. 25Jun06 43 47
In fact, there were 25 polls taken before July 31st in the Cantwell–McGavick race, and Cantwell only broke 50% in six of those polls. From August 1 until election day there were an additional 24 polls, and Cantwell broke 50% in 18 of them. So…it would seem to be too early to apply your rule of thumb.
But what the (combined) poll results tell us is that, even with Gregoire barely breaking 50%, Gregoire’s lead is almost certainly “real” (i.e. outside the margin of error).
“Also… why do you imply that these games should mean anything when you claim on your website that your simulations are NOT projections of election day?”
I clearly stated in my posts that the results only apply to a hypothetical election held today. Any projection to November is fantasy on your part. To me, these polls provide something of a score, much like the running total we usually follow in sporting contests. A mid-game score doesn’t tell you how the game will end, but it tells you who is in the lead and by how much.
“If you actually knew anything about consumer behavior, you’d know that your little games mean nothing without context and more variables.”
Not so for political polls. It has been shown for thousands of elections that a consistent poll leader typically wins the contest.
“She and Rossi are, essentially, starting out tied — not good news for her.”
In fact, Rossi started out with a large lead two and three years ago. He was pretty consistently beating Gregoire in head-to-head polls. I only have data from two polls taken in 2006, and Rossi led in both:
Poll Date R% G%
Strategic V. 26MAR06 51 38
Strategic V. 21MAY06 50 38
Perhaps you can find more results and contradict my statement, but I doubt it. I think you will find lots of old boasting posts at Sound Politics every time a poll came out….
“The race is Rossi’s to lose because she’s had the last 4 years to make her case and he’s just getting started. He has FAR more upside.”
Nope…Rossi is lagging significantly behind in polling, according to today’s polls (and earlier polls as well). Any objective reading of the poll results suggest he would lose in an election held now. That is a lousy place to be (but certainly not fatal).
“If you were intellectually honest, you’d factor in the typical % gain an incumbent can expect during a campaign vs. what gains the challenger can make.”
If you were intellectually honest, you would first READ my post before making shit up. My post was about evidence offered by polling data as applied to the present, not about future gains or predictions for November.
@25 Rossi also has four recent years of incessant whining under his belt. Not very endearing, would you say? People usually don’t vote for whiners unless they’re the among party faithful.
Darryl @ 26
While a simple snapshot is somewhat relevant now, your Monte Carlo analysis implied applicability to November. If that wasn’t your intent, you’re just wasting everyone’s time with your mental masturbation.
The Real Mark,
“While a simple snapshot is somewhat relevant now, your Monte Carlo analysis implied applicability to November.”
No it didn’t. I explicitly stated that the results applied to a hypothetical election held right now.
“If that wasn’t your intent, you’re just wasting everyone’s time with your mental masturbation.”
Really? You mean there is NO value to knowing how well one candidate is doing against another throughout an election season?
Huh. I wonder why hundreds of millions of dollars a year are dumped into polling if it simply amounts to mental masturbation?
So, then, by that logic, is it mental masturbation to look at and evaluate the half-time score in a football game?
(* Sheesh…you wingnuts are really sump’em *)
Darrrrr-lll @ 29
I’ll type reeeeeaaalll slow for yer benefit…
I’m saying that your whole overblown analysis has little to no value.
The Real Mark,
“I’m saying that your whole overblown analysis has little to no value.”
Umm…if you are not able to comprehend or find value in the analysis, don’t read ’em, dumbass! It very simple.