It has been awhile since I’ve done one of these. Leave your thoughts on the election in the comment thread!
5:07: Four years ago on election night my house lost power for a few hours. Today, a bit after 2pm, I lost power for a few hours. I hope that isn’t a bad omen!
5:24: Ahhhh…finally got to pour myself a beer!
5:31: MSNBC: “Breaking news…Polls close in Arkansas…here’s what we can tell you…It is too close to call” Not really “breaking” news as much as prematurely ejected news.
5:41: Texas is interesting, but way too early. Florida isn’t looking good, but way too early to tell.
I am having flashbacks of 2018 when my twitter feed was full of people hysterically clutching their pearls that the blue wave hadn't materialized around this time. But when all the votes were counted …
Everyone said be patient. We knew it could come down to Pa. #ComeOnMan
— digby (@digby56) November 4, 2020
6:30: The first Senate seat to flip…Hickenlooper in Colorado.
He spent 4 years golfing. And people are still voting for him. I will never understand it
— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) November 4, 2020
Well when you lose power, USA changes power :) What the heck ever happened to this website? Sadly Trump wasn’t ever able to stir things up in a positive way. Didn’t vote for him either time, but very disappointed in his time in office regardless. The odds of restoring sanity are lower than you predicted, but I still think above 50/50
Darryl, given the fairly quick final-week shifts that occurred in 2016 and, so far it seems, in 2020 do you think that a 10-day poll window in your analysis is too long? I guess following on that, would a 7-day or 5-day window have come closer to matching results? I realize that the second question cannot be answered right now.
It’s entertaining looking at some of the election night threads at a batshit nuts always wrong wing site.
Half of the commenters are saying they’re stress eating, drinking, pulling their hair out, etc but all are convinced the orange dear leader is going to win.
I see stuff like this
and I think of that silly-ass taco salad tweet by Trump on Cinco de Mayo in 2016 and I just have to wonder how the fuck results like this happen in 2020.
And then I remember: his opponents were Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. And it makes much more sense.
So far.. Nothing has changed from 2016…
except..
One Senate flip for the Dems in Colorado… Nailbiter, yes..
Someone at the batshit nuts site seems to think the House has been called for the Dems. Fwiw..
Fox called VA for Biden, then retracted it. WTF.
@godwinha @2,
I used a 10 day window in 2016. I doubt it would make a difference. But, I can test that…
Oh yeah! The batshit nuts commenters rip on Faux.. Newsmax and OAN is much preferred.. Heh. A lot of them link to the Epoch Times.
Too damn funny!
Wait ’til she sees the crosstabs.
@godwinha @2
Just ran a simulation for today using a 7 day poll window.
Biden: 354
Trump: 184
Joanne Kloppenburg, call your office.
Wheelchair dude won NC-11. Ya simps.
By “midwest”, I wonder if he is including OH.
On the NYT interactive site:
Ford and GM are recovering. Trump’s not gonna kill fracking like Biden has come way, way too close to saying he will do.
The Lincoln Project is not having a good night.
The target of his wrath is partially paralyzed and uses a wheelchair.
Two Miami-area House seats, including Donna Shalala’s, flipped to GOP tonite. The other was won by the mayor of Miami.
@godwinha,
Yet…Dems will make gains in the house.
@ 18 Yep.
Just read from Josh Kraushaar that Trump’s grudge against McCain may end up costing him the election.
‘nite, all.
15,
Think twice about passing along “exit poll” results in a year where over 3 million or about half of OH voters cast early.
Or don’t. That kind of stupidity is “on-brand” for you after all.
19,
And more than one Senate seat.
It was your grudge too, iirc
(insert fat-chick joke about Megs here).
16,
Sorry if you missed it, but Cawthorn, though he may also be disabled, is in fact a Nazi.
Reverently visited Hitler’s Eagles Nest in Berchtesgaden and paid homage to “his Fuhrer”. His words and deeds. You may love that he’s “in their faces” and confronts “the libs” but he’s still an avowed Nazi. You’ll probably come to regret it if you decide to valorize him at this point.
But then again, I thought you’d regret valorizing and worshiping Trump. And I was certainly wrong about that.
@1 Welcome back, Richard. Glad to see you’re still around.
@10 Yeah, that does seem like a stupid comment. Guess she never heard of Cuban-Americans. Still hoping to retake Cuba, I guess. and Latinos in general aren’t a solid bloc, despite Trump’s war on toddlers.
@23 America isn’t as good a country as we hoped and wished it were, in case you didn’t notice back in Vietnam/Nixon days, if you were around then. The USA has always had a lot of assholes.
But I’m glad to see doc is being civil tonight.
No surprises in Washington races. Everybody you expected to win did. No turnover anywhere.
The only surprise in our state is that Culp (40%) is doing better than Trump (36%).
Daryl spews: “I lost power for a few hours.”
A typical Seattle winter produces several outages like that.
After putting up with it for more winters than I can remember, I finally got tired of freezing in the dark, and installed a full-house generator that runs on natural gas.
Buying a smaller unit that only powers the 110v circuits (a Briggs & Stratton Fortress 12kw) kept the cost under $10k including installation. The clothes dryer and stove (220v) won’t work if the grid power is out, but everything else does. I have heat, hot water, lights, computer, and can cook with a microwave and/or a cheap hotplate. No more freezing in the dark for this old rabbit.
NBC/MSNBC news analyst:
I know there are nearly 2M ballots still to count. But Biden’s down more than 700,000 votes, and a lot of those ballots are from six Trump-favoring counties that won’t start to count until tomorrow.
700,000+ is a lot of votes to make up.
@29 The election night count was expected to favor Trump, because mail ballots take longer to count, but it’s obviously going to be tighter than the polls suggested.
Stock futures, which were up earlier, have turned negative. I’m packing it in for the night.
27)On Facebook, some were complaining the race was called for Inslee before any results were posted. I actually agree on that.
Looks like Austin has finally passed rail expansion. Several times it had failed. They are lagging behind Dallas and Houston. The turnout may have helped.
https://www.statesman.com/news/20201103/austin-proposition-election-71b-rail-measure-passes
Ranked Choice Voting lost in Massachussetts and Alaska on the statewide ballot.
In Minnesota, 2 more cities voted to adopt it, Minnetonka and Bloomington.
https://www.hometownsource.com/sun_current/free/bloomingtons-ballot-questions-feature-wild-outcomes/article_b05e6342-1e4f-11eb-bd2f-37b673ab28ed.html
Another option gaining traction iscapproval voting. Basica,ly instead of ranking candidates, you vote fot all candidates you approve of. I am not against it, just with it only being used for one election in Fargo, just want to see more results first. St. Louis just approved Prop. D. We’ll see what happens.
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/politics/elections/st-louis-approval-voting-primary/63-49bf3c9d-fba0-4377-a3b6-096c8f931cff
Milwaukee just reported, waiting on Kenosha and Green Bay.. Narrow lead for Biden, but will it hold?
29,
Like quick-counting (small) states, quick-counting counties also create a “mirage” effect. For example, there are at least 400,000 votes out in Philadelphia County alone. 300,000 in Bucks and Lehigh. Some of these are jurisdictions where they haven’t even begun to count early vote. Likewise, many of the solidly red Trump counties in PA (and some other states) are also waiting until this morning to begin the count of early ballots. And while those counts won’t change the outcome “in those counties” that too is a mirage created by election analysts and computer graphics artists. Electoral votes are not awarded on a county by county basis, as you already know. So those thousands of early votes coming in this morning from each of a a few dozen counties can upend the picture statewide.
The expectation by most media analysts and consequently by most viewers, that they would be able to watch the ballot count in this election unfold like any other proved too tempting to be resisted. Every media reporting outlet I’ve looked at gave in to it. I suspect by design. It created the sense of drama and suspense they hope to use to drive subscriptions, etc. It’s not an accident that the NYT offered free access to their analysis* but only until midnight. They are selling lots of new subscriptions this morning.
*I for one am deeply skeptical of “The Needle”. But we’ll see.
One additional caution that will probably play a big role in the idiotic and frankly undemocratic rhetoric we can expect to see unfold today and in the days ahead.
The reported “vote still out” are based on local estimates. And they are just that – estimates only. Some are quite incorrect. We simply will not know how many voters cast ballots in many of these jurisdictions until all their results are reported. Again, even the percentages you see splashed across graphics screens on either a statewide basis or on a county level, are often very inaccurate. That can be incredibly significant in a close election. And it’s entirely why Trump/GOP have engaged in the false rhetoric that they have for the past several weeks.
Additional votes are not going to be “found” today or tomorrow or even next week. But ballots that have always been there, sitting in boxes, waiting to be processed and counted will begin to be processed today and in the days ahead. These are all legal, valid ballots from qualified voters who voted early by mail. We don’t even have a way of estimating their number yet. But people are already falling for it.
The credulous, conspiracy mongering, Birf-certificate-Whitey-tape-Baby-cannibalism expert The Q Clearance Cat Lady declares that PA has 2 million ballots still to count. He simply does not know that. It could be 2.5 million. It could be 3 million. All we know is that over 3 million mail ballots were requested in PA. And we know that 2.5 million had been returned as of the most recent report on the morning of Nov. 3. PA county election offices will continue to receive mail ballots until midnight this Friday. When bad raw numbers get thrown around it leads people like him and many other scab-pickers and nail-biters to leap up and declare “conspiracy!” when the bad numbers get updated later.
Trump is already preparing that ground this morning by arguing that counting should stop and these voter’s ballots thrown out. He’s already implying that these are votes somehow “cast” after the polls have closed or that they are being “found” after the polls have closed. It’s all bullshit. Don’t play along by repeating and amplifying the bullshit numbers that their bullshit is based upon.
Silly wabbit… There are Cuban Hispanics of which Puddy has two nephews by marriage vs. PortaPotty latinos who are as clueless over socialism and communism as PortaPotty is to a job.
Cubanos know what hardship is and want no part of BiteME! They lived it and/or their parents lived it. So, they vote from the heart, soul and mind. Too bad you are too senile and dense to comprehend their values and political differences. Sisters voted BiteME! while their children, spouses and old enough grandchildren voted Trump! Plain and simple.
What gets Puddy is how all those people whom migrated from California to Texas and Arizona to get away from the crime and high taxes due to dummocretins in the legislature and senate making California a sanctuary wasteland; then to go to vote in Texas and Arizona for the same dummocretin political thought they ran away from earlier.
dummocretins are a stoooooooooooopid bunch.
So why do dummocretin go Fascist and Nazi when they don’t get their way?
We see when dummocretin are out of power they don’t have a life otherwise! Politics is their boon!
Lindsey Graham & Mitch McConnell won BIG! $200,000,000 dummocretin $$$$ wasted. Could have gone to feed the poor dummocretin claim to care about.
Another blatant lie from dot bombed’s fingers.
Trump said: “We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list, okay?”
So in simple English even dot bombed can comprehend, Trump doesn’t want dummocretin people VOTING after November 3rd, or fraudulent post election dummocretin dead people from the grave votes or post election senile old folks modified ballots delivered. Figger out how many votes are needed and find that necessary percentage in the “uncounted ballots”. That is Federal law dot bombed.
So Florida passed a $15 minimum wage?
Careful of what you wish for always wrong drumpfy wingies..
Heh. Oh but Florida isn’t THAT always wrong wing… No….
41)See how the Florida legislature nullifies this one.
all those people whom migrated from California to Texas and Arizona to get away from the crime and high taxes
Los Angeles County has a higher population than 42 states dumbass..
710 billion dollar GDP – equivalent to Saudi Arabia. One county.
Can’t stand the heat then leave.. Sux to be you.
Once again PortaPotty doesn’t get it. It posts
Has nothing to do with Californian migration to Texas and California?
Whatamoron.
No, it sux to be you. You can’t even think of something original. Hence the name PortaPotty!
Has nothing to do with Californian migration to Texas and California?
Has everything to do with why people live in LA County and Silicon Valley and San Fran etc…
If you don’t like it fine – LEAVE… Sux if you can’t hack it.