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It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.
Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 360 electoral votes with a 3.89% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 3.86% probability
- 375 electoral votes with a 3.56% probability
- 363 electoral votes with a 3.24% probability
- 369 electoral votes with a 3.16% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 3.00% probability
- 378 electoral votes with a 2.87% probability
- 354 electoral votes with a 2.72% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 2.60% probability
- 361 electoral votes with a 2.43% probability
Note that all ten of these most probable outcomes are over 350 electoral votes. Would an election held now be a landslide? It totally depends on how you define a landslide.
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 363.0 (18.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 175.0 (18.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 361 (330, 404)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 177 (134, 208)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 230 | |||
| Strong Biden | 76 | 306 | ||
| Leans Biden | 45 | 45 | 351 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 351 |
| Weak Trump | 21 | 21 | 21 | 187 |
| Leans Trump | 27 | 27 | 166 | |
| Strong Trump | 88 | 139 | ||
| Safe Trump | 51 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 1008 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1 | 560 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 43.4 | 56.6 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 19 | 11270 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 799 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 35.0 | 65.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 4 | 8911 | 69.4 | 30.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 4* | 2675 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2* | 1494 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 737 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 16 | 15319 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| GA | 16 | 11 | 7445 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 76.2 | 23.8 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 829 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1120 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 950 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 6 | 3258 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 36.9 | 63.1 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 1431 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2 | 1843 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 540 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 13.0 | 87.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 5 | 3655 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 4 | 1620 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 4 | 1338 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 90.2 | 9.8 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 692 | 67.5 | 32.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 745 | 69.5 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 16 | 10554 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 8 | 5186 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 951 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 13.1 | 86.9 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 1025 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 3.6 | 96.4 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 568 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 9.3 | 90.7 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 37.4 | 62.6 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 2 | 831 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 87.6 | 12.4 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 4 | 2608 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 98.0 | 2.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 4 | 2534 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2 | 946 | 58.7 | 41.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 1044 | 58.0 | 42.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 453 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 19 | 13946 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 87.5 | 12.5 | ||
| ND | 3 | 2 | 870 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 7 | 5618 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.3 | 53.7 | ||
| OK | 7 | 2 | 901 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 2 | 1349 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 21 | 14989 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 5 | 4514 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| TX | 38 | 7 | 5167 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 8.8 | 91.2 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1973 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 516 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 679 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 83.9 | 16.1 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 471 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 495 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 19 | 12818 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
I’m pretty sure the polls are reasonably accurate, but I’m skeptical of polling results, because they only measure how people intend to vote, and say nothing about how successful GOP vote suppression efforts will be, or how many ballots will be thrown out or go uncounted. Beyond that, Republicans can read polls, too, and it’s obvious from the polls that Biden has more voters on his side; I think they intend to “win” by other means, and the polls tell us nothing about how that might go.
But if we’re going to focus on polling data, Nate Silver noted in a piece he published on his blog Monday (10/5/20) that Biden picked up about 1% after the debate, which is typical of challengers in past election, and this post-debate bounce usually fades after a couple weeks. Silver also saw a 1%-2% uptick for Biden over the weekend, but if it’s a result of Trump’s hospitalization, that might fade too if he recovers.
So I’m inclined to think the race is about where it was, with Biden roughly up 7% nationally after these fades, and with well over 300 electoral votes even without Florida and Ohio, unless some states where he has leads well outside the margin of error move into the Trump column via legislative, judicial, or other shenanigans.
I think something this election is bringing out into the open like never before is that Republicans don’t believe in democracy. They never have, but it’s blatant this year. I think this factor makes polls less important, because it’s not enough for Democrats to get more votes. They need to overcome an entrenched Republican power structure in legislatures and courts determined to override the popular vote in key battleground states. If we don’t want 5 or 6 Supreme Court justices appointing our presidents, the voters be damned, Democrats may have to seriously threaten to term limit or pack the court, or do both, to restrain that partisan court majority.
Trump/GOP will lose women voters in unprecedented numbers far surpassing the 2018 Blue Wave.
Whether/If that will produce a giant shift in the electoral college giving Biden a landslide will of course depend upon where those women turnout and vote. While Trump/GOP will still hold a majority with white men, they will lose white women overall, and particularly college educated white women.
Vice President Elect Harris will help cement that shift in support with her debate performance tomorrow night. Women from across the political spectrum will tune in to watch how she performs in a context only seen twice before. The mere fact that Biden/Harris are favored to win the election will drive viewership. Both of the previous VP debates featuring female nominees broke viewership records. This will surpass them both, as tens of millions of women tune in to introduce themselves to the women who is about to be second in command.
Harris is extremely well prepared for this moment and understands it far better than her opponent does. Trump’s racing back to the White House plays into Harris’ strength, attacking the administration and the GOP on their disgracefully irresponsible handling of COVID-19. With Trump at home watching and tweeting aggressively, she will not be overly constrained by concerns about the optics if she attacks. And Pence will have to either lie to defend his administration’s record, or merely wince and shrug which seems to be his specialty.
Tomorrow night you will see a skilled prosecutor put Trump/GOP on trial for murder before an audience of women voters. And for all the mothers, daughters, and sisters on the jury, the verdict will be guilty as charged.
The latest Wall Street Journal NBC News Poll has 45% dummocretin in it with a small sample of registered voters not likely voters. Oversampling big time and everyone is running with it. Watched local NBC news last night and we laughed out loud! Looks like 2016 de-ja vu all over again. Exit polls claimed that even in the most strident of libtard dummocretin states the max dummocretin was 37-38% voting.
Friday’s Investor’s Business Daily survey had Biden/Trump within the margin of error. The latest Gallup poll that showed 56% of those polled expected a Trump reelection. Also, on Saturday, Zogby’s latest poll had the race within the margin of error with Trump slightly ahead in the battleground states. Last, but not least, the latest Democracy Institute national poll had Trump up by 1 point.
Puddy would put LEEEENKS up for each poll butt the system would flag it for moderation so you can verify it for yourselves.
Tomorrow we will see that loud big mouthed Alito and Kavanaugh hating VP candidate that called Biden a racist liar go up against a soft-spoken well mannered man.
@4 I’m somewhat familiar with Investors Business Daily, and here’s what I’ll say about it: If it’s possible to find a publication more partisan rightwing than Puddy’s customary “sources,” IBD is it.
@3 Not just women. Trump’s tent is leaking senior voters, too.
As it should be, of course, if there’s any rationality left in the electorate, because Trump is out to destroy Social Security and Medicare. But many seniors still don’t seem to realize that. Their immediate concern is Trump’s efforts to kill them off.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/older-voters-flee-trump-solidifying-biden-s-advantage-2020-race-n1242280
4,
Triggered.
Sorry I forgot to issue a warning.
Maybe Trolls4Trump should just accept it as axiomatic that all things occurring in reality outside of the sticky orange pube flecked film of Teh Orange Event Horizon comes with a trigger warning.
COUGH!
6,
Yup. That one may cost him Florida if DeSantis doesn’t get going on locking up all “The Blacks” as Trump ordered.
6,
I also suspect that the shift in PA in the most recent polls to more closely reflect tipping point states with similar demographics may reflect movement among seniors. Over 40% of RVs in PA are 55 or older. Nearly 20% are over 65.
Since 2018 the trend to watch has been movement of college educated female voters away from Trump/GOP. But in the analysis that will follow the hysterically drunken celebrations attending Trump/GOP’s historic defeat this year, an unexpected shift we may see emerging will be among older voters.
That could not only deliver states like Florida and Arizona, it could radically alter the map for enough years to come to provide much improved fighting terrain for Ds in 2022 mids. The key will be for the new administration to solidify these shifts.
This may be the one significant outcome that was unforeseen and that owes largely to the selection of Biden as the nominee. In the longer run what we won’t really know until after the election and exit data are available will be shifts in voting and demographics if younger voters in tipping point states get involved (and stay involved) in numbers that equal or even surpass older voters. They are much less likely to be shown in these poll results if their previous voting patterns are irregular.
Flipping Florida and Arizona will make people sit up and take a look. But how those states get flipped may be a more complicated story that requires closer inspection than the media may be prepared to offer. A clear understanding of these shifts among voters will be crucial for guiding candidates and campaigns going into 2022, and in state house races where maps will be redrawn and where tipping point states like PA, MI, OH, and MN may lose seats while FL, AZ, CO, NC, and VA may gain seats.
After last night, that poor fly needs to be tested for Covid.