Biden versus Trump using polls from 05-Oct-19 to 05-Oct-20


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Auburn-M 30-Sep-20 03-Oct-20 1072 4.0 37.2 56.8 T+19.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 37.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 43.4% wins (43,440 wins ), Trump: 56.6% wins (56,560 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Harstad 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 602 4.0 46.0 47.0 T+1.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

19 polls

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,872 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (128 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 01-Oct-20 03-Oct-20 655 4.2 49.0 41.0 B+8.0
Suffolk 26-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 500 --- 50.2 46.2 B+4.0
Susquehanna 25-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 500 4.3 47.0 47.0 0.0
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 808 3.4 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 836 --- 47.0 44.0 B+3.0
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 262 --- 49.0 43.0 B+6.0
Data for Progress 15-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 481 --- 45.0 46.0 T+1.0
Hart Res 17-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 400 4.9 53.0 42.0 B+11.0
WaPo-ABC 15-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 579 4.5 48.0 49.0 T+1.0
Data Orbital 14-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 550 --- 49.3 46.6 B+2.7
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 565 4.7 47.0 46.0 B+1.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 855 --- 47.0 42.0 B+5.0
Monmouth 11-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 420 4.8 48.0 44.0 B+4.0
Siena 10-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 653 4.1 49.0 40.0 B+9.0
Gravis 10-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 684 3.8 50.0 48.0 B+2.0
YouGov 09-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 1106 3.8 47.0 44.0 B+3.0
OHPI 08-Sep-20 10-Sep-20 600 4.0 52.3 42.2 B+10.2
Kaiser 29-Aug-20 13-Sep-20 1298 3.0 45.0 40.0 B+5.0
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 470 --- 49.0 45.0 B+4.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 35.0% wins (34,965 wins ), Trump: 65.0% wins (65,035 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Hendrix Col 09-Jun-20 10-Jun-20 869 3.3 45.0 47.0 T+2.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 32.00% Trump.

55 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 26-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 558 5.3 59.0 31.6 B+27.4
RWS 19-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 1885 --- 62.0 28.0 B+34.0
UCB 09-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 5942 --- 67.0 28.0 B+39.0
PPIC 04-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 1168 4.3 60.0 31.0 B+29.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 43.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Morning Consult 29-Aug-20 07-Sep-20 657 --- 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
GSG 28-Aug-20 01-Sep-20 800 3.5 50.0 39.0 B+11.0
Hart Res 20-Aug-20 05-Sep-20 800 3.5 50.0 40.0 B+10.0
Morning Consult 21-Aug-20 30-Aug-20 638 --- 56.0 41.0 B+15.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 19-May-20 24-May-20 808 4.5 52.3 31.9 B+20.4
Quinnipiac 30-Apr-20 04-May-20 915 3.2 56.0 33.0 B+23.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 42.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
U DE 21-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 847 4.0 54.0 33.0 B+21.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 90.00% Clinton, 4.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 49.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

16 polls

Biden: 99.6% wins (99,614 wins ), Trump: 0.4% wins (386 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 710 4.1 49.0 42.0 B+7.0
Susquehanna 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 500 4.3 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1019 --- 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
St Pete 21-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 2906 1.8 49.7 46.5 B+3.2
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 702 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Data for Progress 15-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 620 --- 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
Hart Res 17-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 400 4.9 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
WaPo-ABC 15-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 613 4.5 47.0 51.0 T+4.0
YouGov 15-Sep-20 18-Sep-20 1220 3.7 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 586 4.6 47.0 47.0 0.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 1158 --- 47.0 44.0 B+3.0
Monmouth 10-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 428 4.7 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
FAU 11-Sep-20 12-Sep-20 631 3.8 48.8 46.0 B+2.9
St Pete 07-Sep-20 08-Sep-20 2689 1.9 49.6 47.1 B+2.5
Kaiser 29-Aug-20 13-Sep-20 1009 4.0 43.0 42.0 B+1.0
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 1144 --- 49.0 46.0 B+3.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

11 polls

Biden: 76.2% wins (76,191 wins ), Trump: 23.8% wins (23,809 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Landmark 30-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 500 4.4 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 969 3.5 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
Quinnipiac 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 1125 2.9 50.0 47.0 B+3.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 744 --- 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1164 3.3 46.0 47.0 T+1.0
Monmouth 17-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 402 4.9 46.0 48.0 T+2.0
Siena 16-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 523 4.9 45.0 45.0 0.0
Data for Progress 14-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 800 --- 45.0 45.0 0.0
GBAO 14-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 600 4.0 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 753 3.5 45.0 46.0 T+1.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 62.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
MRG 27-Jul-20 30-Jul-20 975 3.1 56.0 29.0 B+27.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SPRY 29-Aug-20 01-Sep-20 600 4.0 34.5 59.7 T+25.2


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney,

2016 Result: 56.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,957 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (43 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Victory Res 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 1208 2.8 52.9 39.8 B+13.1


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.1% wins (86 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,914 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Change Res 03-Sep-20 07-Sep-20 1033 3.1 39.0 53.0 T+14.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 42.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Biden: 36.9% wins (36,936 wins ), Trump: 63.1% wins (63,064 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 743 3.6 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
RABA Res 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 780 4.0 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Monmouth 18-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 402 4.9 46.0 49.0 T+3.0
Siena 16-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 501 5.0 45.0 42.0 B+3.0
Selzer 14-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 658 3.8 47.0 47.0 0.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 1.1% wins (1,111 wins ), Trump: 98.9% wins (98,889 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 677 4.5 42.0 52.0 T+10.0
Data for Progress 14-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 883 --- 42.0 48.0 T+6.0


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney,

2016 Result: 33.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Data for Progress 14-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 807 --- 35.0 55.0 T+20.0
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 1164 2.9 38.0 58.0 T+20.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 13.0% wins (13,044 wins ), Trump: 87.0% wins (86,956 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Tyson Group 02-Sep-20 05-Sep-20 600 4.0 42.0 48.0 T+6.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

5 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 718 3.7 55.0 41.0 B+14.0
Colby Col 17-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 847 3.4 50.0 39.0 B+11.0
Suffolk 17-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 500 --- 50.8 38.6 B+12.2
Siena 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 663 5.1 55.0 38.0 B+17.0
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 1183 2.9 59.0 38.0 B+21.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

4 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Colby Col 17-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 416 --- 54.0 36.0 B+18.0
Suffolk 17-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 267 --- 54.3 32.6 B+21.7
Siena 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 355 --- 61.9 32.5 B+29.4
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 707 --- 64.0 32.0 B+32.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 51.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

4 polls

Biden: 90.2% wins (90,200 wins ), Trump: 9.8% wins (9,800 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Colby Col 17-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 425 --- 46.0 43.0 B+3.0
Suffolk 17-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 233 --- 46.8 45.5 B+1.3
Siena 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 308 --- 47.2 44.7 B+2.5
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 476 --- 53.0 44.0 B+9.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 34.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
OpinionWorks 04-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 753 --- 62.0 29.9 B+32.1


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney,

2016 Result: 60.00% Clinton, 33.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 25-Aug-20 27-Aug-20 763 --- 67.8 29.8 B+38.1


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

16 Electoral votes.

16 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 746 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Trafalgar 26-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 1042 3.0 48.7 47.1 B+1.6
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 760 --- 51.0 42.0 B+9.0
Marist 19-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 799 4.3 52.0 44.0 B+8.0
ALG Res 17-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 800 3.5 52.0 44.0 B+8.0
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 568 --- 51.0 43.0 B+8.0
Hart Res 17-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 400 4.9 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Data for Progress 14-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 455 --- 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
MRG 14-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 600 --- 46.0 41.0 B+5.0
YouGov 10-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 641 4.7 51.0 45.0 B+6.0
Baldwin Wallace 08-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 1001 3.6 49.9 41.9 B+8.0
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 637 4.4 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
Civiqs 11-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 517 4.5 53.0 42.0 B+11.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 930 --- 49.0 39.0 B+10.0
EPIC-MRA 10-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 600 4.0 48.0 40.0 B+8.0
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 875 --- 49.0 43.0 B+6.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 45.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Suffolk 20-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 500 --- 46.6 40.2 B+6.4
Mason-Dixon 21-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 800 3.5 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 703 3.7 51.0 42.0 B+9.0
WaPo-ABC 08-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 615 4.5 57.0 41.0 B+16.0
YouGov 09-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 1087 3.6 50.0 41.0 B+9.0
Siena 08-Sep-20 10-Sep-20 814 3.9 50.0 41.0 B+9.0
Morning Consult 04-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 600 4.0 48.0 44.0 B+4.0
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-20 07-Sep-20 553 5.2 48.8 40.1 B+8.7


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 40.00% Clinton, 58.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 13.1% wins (13,143 wins ), Trump: 86.9% wins (86,857 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Remington 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 980 3.0 46.0 51.0 T+5.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney,

2016 Result: 38.00% Clinton, 57.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 3.6% wins (3,565 wins ), Trump: 96.4% wins (96,435 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Remington 16-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 1046 3.0 45.0 53.0 T+8.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney,

2016 Result: 36.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 9.3% wins (9,349 wins ), Trump: 90.7% wins (90,651 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 14-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 625 4.8 42.0 49.0 T+7.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney,

2016 Result: 34.00% Clinton, 59.00% Trump.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 56.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Biden: 37.4% wins (37,371 wins ), Trump: 62.6% wins (62,629 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Stragegies 360 16-Jul-20 22-Jul-20 400 --- 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney,

2016 Result: 45.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Biden: 87.6% wins (87,604 wins ), Trump: 12.4% wins (12,396 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 25-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 520 5.3 48.0 41.0 B+7.0
GSG 14-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 400 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 20.00% Clinton, 74.00% Trump.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 98.0% wins (98,025 wins ), Trump: 2.0% wins (1,975 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Rasmussen 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 750 --- 49.0 48.0 B+1.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 810 3.0 52.0 41.0 B+11.0
ALG Res 15-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 800 --- 47.0 43.0 B+4.0
Siena 08-Sep-20 10-Sep-20 462 5.3 46.0 42.0 B+4.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,956 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (44 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Emerson 30-Sep-20 01-Oct-20 700 3.6 52.3 45.3 B+7.0
Pulse 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 850 4.0 56.0 42.0 B+14.0
UMass-Lowell 17-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 657 4.6 52.0 44.0 B+8.0
Siena 08-Sep-20 10-Sep-20 445 5.5 45.0 42.0 B+3.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 55.00% Clinton, 41.00% Trump.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DKC Analytics 08-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 501 4.4 52.0 38.0 B+14.0
Emerson 04-Sep-20 07-Sep-20 500 4.4 58.7 40.2 B+18.5


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney,

2016 Result: 48.00% Clinton, 40.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 99.9% wins (99,950 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (50 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Research & Polling 26-Aug-20 02-Sep-20 1123 2.9 54.0 39.0 B+15.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 59.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Siena 27-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 504 4.4 61.0 29.0 B+32.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 50.00% Trump.

15 Electoral votes.

19 polls

Biden: 87.5% wins (87,490 wins ), Trump: 12.5% wins (12,510 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
PPP 04-Oct-20 05-Oct-20 911 --- 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 49.0 47.0 B+2.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 1035 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1213 3.6 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
UMASS-Lowell 18-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 921 4.1 47.0 47.0 0.0
Meredith 18-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 705 3.5 45.7 45.4 B+0.3
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 579 --- 48.0 46.0 B+2.0
Harper 17-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 612 4.0 44.0 45.0 T+1.0
Emerson 16-Sep-20 18-Sep-20 717 3.6 50.1 48.5 B+1.5
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 586 4.6 47.0 47.0 0.0
Siena 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 653 4.3 45.0 44.0 B+1.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 1092 --- 47.0 45.0 B+2.0
Suffolk 11-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 500 --- 46.2 42.8 B+3.4
SurveyUSA 10-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 596 5.6 46.9 46.6 B+0.3
SRSS 09-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 787 4.4 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Trafalgar 09-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 1046 3.0 46.1 47.8 T+1.7
Rasmussen 07-Sep-20 08-Sep-20 1000 3.0 48.0 49.0 T+1.0
Kaiser 29-Aug-20 13-Sep-20 1172 3.0 45.0 43.0 B+2.0
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 442 --- 49.0 47.0 B+2.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 63.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
DFM Res 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 460 4.6 37.0 51.0 T+14.0
DFM Res 12-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 500 --- 37.0 56.0 T+19.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney,

2016 Result: 44.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

18 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 46.3% wins (46,314 wins ), Trump: 53.7% wins (53,686 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Trafalgar 01-Oct-20 03-Oct-20 1035 3.0 43.9 47.6 T+3.7
YouGov 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1114 3.7 47.0 47.0 0.0
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 830 3.0 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
Quinnipiac 17-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 1085 3.0 48.0 47.0 B+1.0
Baldwin Wallace 08-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 1011 3.3 44.9 44.3 B+0.6
Civiqs 11-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 556 4.3 45.0 48.0 T+3.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney,

2016 Result: 29.00% Clinton, 65.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Amber Integrated 17-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 500 4.4 33.4 55.0 T+21.6
Sooner 02-Sep-20 08-Sep-20 486 4.4 35.0 59.4 T+24.4


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Civiqs 26-Sep-20 29-Sep-20 944 3.5 56.0 39.0 B+17.0
DHM Res 03-Sep-20 08-Sep-20 502 4.4 51.0 39.0 B+12.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney,

2016 Result: 47.00% Clinton, 48.00% Trump.

20 Electoral votes.

21 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 605 --- 50.0 45.0 B+5.0
YouGov 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 1187 3.1 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Siena 30-Sep-20 02-Oct-20 706 4.1 49.0 42.0 B+7.0
Siena 25-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 711 4.3 49.0 40.0 B+9.0
TIPP 24-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 744 3.6 49.7 44.6 B+5.0
RWS 23-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 972 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
WaPo-ABC 21-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 568 5.0 54.0 45.0 B+9.0
Fox News 20-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 856 3.0 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
Trafalgar 18-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 1006 3.0 48.1 45.9 B+2.2
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 579 --- 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Hart Res 17-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 400 4.9 53.0 42.0 B+11.0
Franklin & Marshall 14-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 480 6.5 48.0 42.0 B+6.0
CPEC 15-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 820 2.3 50.3 45.4 B+4.9
Trafalgar 15-Sep-20 17-Sep-20 1006 3.0 47.3 44.9 B+2.4
YouGov 10-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 642 4.7 49.0 45.0 B+4.0
Baldwin Wallace 08-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 1012 3.6 47.3 44.6 B+2.7
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 611 4.5 49.0 46.0 B+3.0
Civiqs 11-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 549 4.4 52.0 45.0 B+7.0
RWS 12-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 1036 --- 49.0 44.0 B+5.0
Climate Nexus 08-Sep-20 11-Sep-20 659 4.0 46.7 44.3 B+2.4
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 829 --- 50.0 46.0 B+4.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney,

2016 Result: 54.00% Clinton, 39.00% Trump.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Biden assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney,

2016 Result: 41.00% Clinton, 55.00% Trump.

9 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Biden: 0.4% wins (444 wins ), Trump: 99.6% wins (99,556 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Data for Progress 23-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 824 3.4 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Quinnipiac 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 1123 2.9 47.0 48.0 T+1.0
YouGov 22-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 1080 3.8 42.0 52.0 T+10.0
Morning Consult 11-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 764 --- 44.0 50.0 T+6.0
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 969 3.2 45.0 51.0 T+6.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 32.00% Clinton, 62.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.



Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney,

2016 Result: 35.00% Clinton, 61.00% Trump.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.2% wins (169 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,831 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
SRSS 05-May-20 22-May-20 1000 3.8 42.0 51.0 T+9.0
E_TN_U 22-Apr-20 01-May-20 536 --- 36.0 53.0 T+17.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney,

2016 Result: 43.00% Clinton, 52.00% Trump.

38 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Biden: 8.8% wins (8,801 wins ), Trump: 91.2% wins (91,199 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Hart Res 24-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 400 4.9 47.0 49.0 T+2.0
PPP 25-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 612 3.6 48.0 48.0 0.0
UMASS-Lowell 18-Sep-20 25-Sep-20 882 4.3 46.0 49.0 T+3.0
Siena 16-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 653 4.3 43.0 46.0 T+3.0
Quinnipiac 17-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 1078 3.0 45.0 50.0 T+5.0
Data for Progress 15-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 726 --- 45.0 46.0 T+1.0
YouGov 15-Sep-20 18-Sep-20 1161 3.5 46.0 48.0 T+2.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney,

2016 Result: 27.00% Clinton, 46.00% Trump.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Y2Analytics 26-Sep-20 04-Oct-20 1214 2.8 40.0 50.0 T+10.0
RMG Res 07-Sep-20 12-Sep-20 1000 3.1 35.0 53.0 T+18.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney,

2016 Result: 57.00% Clinton, 30.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Braun Res 03-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 586 4.0 56.0 32.0 B+24.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney,

2016 Result: 50.00% Clinton, 44.00% Trump.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 83.9% wins (83,933 wins ), Trump: 16.1% wins (16,067 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
CNU 09-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 746 3.9 48.0 43.0 B+5.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney,

2016 Result: 53.00% Clinton, 37.00% Trump.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 100.0% wins (99,992 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (8 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Strategies 360 08-Sep-20 14-Sep-20 501 4.4 58.0 36.0 B+22.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney,

2016 Result: 26.00% Clinton, 69.00% Trump.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Biden: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
WPA Intel 07-Jan-20 09-Jan-20 500 4.4 33.0 66.0 T+33.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney,

2016 Result: 46.00% Clinton, 47.00% Trump.

10 Electoral votes.

19 polls

Biden: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Biden Trump Diff
Ipsos 29-Sep-20 05-Oct-20 601 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0
Trafalgar 25-Sep-20 28-Sep-20 1084 2.9 47.2 44.3 B+2.9
RWS 23-Sep-20 27-Sep-20 648 --- 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
Susquehanna 23-Sep-20 26-Sep-20 500 4.3 40.0 43.0 T+3.0
Trafalgar 22-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 1189 2.8 47.7 44.9 B+2.8
Marist 20-Sep-20 24-Sep-20 727 4.6 54.0 44.0 B+10.0
Change Res 18-Sep-20 20-Sep-20 571 --- 51.0 42.0 B+9.0
Hart Res 17-Sep-20 19-Sep-20 400 4.9 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
YouGov 10-Sep-20 21-Sep-20 664 4.5 50.0 46.0 B+4.0
Baldwin Wallace 08-Sep-20 22-Sep-20 863 3.7 50.3 41.0 B+9.3
RWS 12-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 636 --- 47.0 41.0 B+6.0
Ipsos 11-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 609 4.5 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
Civiqs 11-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 704 3.9 51.0 44.0 B+7.0
SRSS 09-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 816 4.0 52.0 42.0 B+10.0
Morning Consult T 06-Sep-20 15-Sep-20 797 --- 51.0 42.0 B+9.0
WaPo-ABC 08-Sep-20 13-Sep-20 605 4.5 52.0 46.0 B+6.0
Siena 08-Sep-20 10-Sep-20 760 4.7 48.0 43.0 B+5.0
Emerson 06-Sep-20 08-Sep-20 823 3.4 50.8 43.9 B+6.9
Change Res 04-Sep-20 06-Sep-20 801 --- 50.0 44.0 B+6.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney,

2016 Result: 22.00% Clinton, 67.00% Trump.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections based on past 4 elections.