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My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:
- A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
- A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
- A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
- A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%
Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:
- Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
- Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
- Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
- In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
- Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
- Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
- In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):
Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
All of the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden are greater than 350 electoral votes (full distribution here):
- 375 electoral votes with a 2.68% probability
- 359 electoral votes with a 2.64% probability
- 369 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
- 368 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability
- 363 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
- 365 electoral votes with a 1.93% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 1.87% probability
- 353 electoral votes with a 1.86% probability
- 360 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 376.6 (22.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 161.4 (22.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 374 (339, 421)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 164 (117, 199)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 220 | |||
| Strong Biden | 113 | 333 | ||
| Leans Biden | 20 | 20 | 353 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 |
| Weak Trump | 25 | 25 | 25 | 185 |
| Leans Trump | 62 | 62 | 160 | |
| Strong Trump | 56 | 98 | ||
| Safe Trump | 42 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 552 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 25.2 | 74.8 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1 | 560 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 43.8 | 56.2 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 17 | 11601 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 799 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 33.2 | 66.8 | ||
| CA | 55 | 4 | 8976 | 68.9 | 31.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 3 | 2056 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2* | 1494 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 675 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 19 | 22759 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| GA | 16 | 9 | 6502 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 40.9 | 59.1 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 829 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1 | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 950 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IA | 6 | 4 | 2171 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 42.1 | 57.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1 | 795 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 8.2 | 91.8 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2 | 1843 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 540 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 13.2 | 86.8 | ||
| ME | 2 | 5 | 3718 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 5 | 2023 | 63.9 | 36.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 5 | 1683 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 91.7 | 8.3 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 692 | 67.5 | 32.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 745 | 69.5 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 17 | 13053 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 11 | 7103 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 540 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 2.9 | 97.1 | ||
| MO | 10 | 2 | 1490 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 2.4 | 97.6 | ||
| MT | 3 | 2 | 1312 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 2.2 | 97.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 39.7 | 60.3 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 2 | 831 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 86.0 | 14.0 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 4 | 2608 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 98.0 | 2.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 387 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 67.2 | 32.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 1044 | 58.0 | 42.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1* | 977 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 21 | 16921 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 68.6 | 31.4 | ||
| ND | 3 | 2* | 942 | 40.3 | 59.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 6 | 6084 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 95.1 | 4.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 2 | 901 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 452 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 97.8 | 2.2 | ||
| PA | 20 | 23 | 18505 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 3 | 2664 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 8 | 8184 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 36.8 | 63.2 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 880 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 516 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 2 | 1316 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 471 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 495 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 21 | 15612 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
If you’re like me, after 2016 you look at models like these and you look for states with low numbers of polls, and narrow(ish) margins for indicators of where states being counted into the EV total for Biden might be 100% wrong (the “beauty” of our winner-take-all EV system).
This year, compared to 2016, there’s a lot more polling in more places. But predictably it is still mostly concentrated in the “predicted” swing states. So there are a few states that could be completely off if only a few polls are bad.
Colorado: Only three polls. Not super close. But a big difference between online and in-person results.
Nevada: Only four polls. Closer than CO. Maybe some bad polls (Trashmussen, FOX).
New Hampshire: only one poll and it has the race within the MOE.
Ohio: Six polls. Is that enough? It concerns me. Obviously very close.
Virginia: just two polls. Sort of close. Could race play an issue? Does Trump win on race with whites? I hope not.
Then there are Illinois, DC and Rhode Island with zero polls. I’m just going to assume (at my peril?) that Biden wins Illinois.
So 50 EVs I’d consider in doubt on that basis.
Then there are the true swings with plenty of polls but very close races. Another 67 EVs probably in play where things could change in four weeks.
Still definitely possible for Biden to lose in November without Trump/RNC shooting up polling places and burning ballots.
@1
It’s too bad you can’t get King County Elections to count the votes for the whole country.
I hope you are right Daryll – I hope this reflects the reality. I’ll give you one big kiss!
2,
When we mention Trump’s decades of business failure, soaring personal debt, and tax fraud, it’s real, we provide you with his own 1040s to prove it, and yet you pretend you don’t know what any of it means.
When you mention King County Elections and imply vote fraud, it’s fake, you provide absolutely nothing in support of your crying tantrum, and you still pretend you don’t know what any of it means.
What that tells us is you don’t really understand much about how things like elections or taxes work in the real world beyond your mother’s basement.
And that you’re a pussy.
0.1% isn’t enough. The fascist traitors aren’t much good at governance, obviously, nor most everything else they do, but they’re damned clever when it comes to stealing elections.
Oh, that he is, especially with a name like Pars Dominae Foetidae….how faggy.
Trump World is now saying that the HuhrDuhrham Performance will probably be delayed until after the election.
If this is true then it’s probably because Trump2020 internal polling indicates it won’t have the polling effect that the Comey Letter had in 2016. The Comey Letter corresponded with a very sharp decline in Clinton’s polling. Mathematically enough to flip the election outcome when combined with other effects, like the electoral college structure.
Holding on to it until after the election might be an indication that Trump2020/RNC hope to use HuhrDuhrham as part of the post-election grievance stoking in hopes of tossing the election results. Barr has been quiet of late. That may mean he’s at work preparing for the election stealing to come.
I still think there’s a good chance they intend to release the report in the next week or two, and put on a big show with lots of input from Senate Child Molesters expressing performative outrage. But given the stable leads Biden holds in battleground states, at this point it doesn’t look like the effect, even an effect as large as the Comey letter, can produce the flip Trump/GOP need to pull out of the dive they are in.
If the report is released it should at least make for interesting poll watching. Maybe it’s just me, but that seems like a huge come down from the EARTH SHATTERING political effects that The Q Clearance Cat Lady spent a year and a half of his sad life demanding.
I found this interesting. In IBD/TIPP poll just released, there’s a nod to the Trafalgar approach:
This is the first time I have seen this from a pollster other than Trafalgar. Is it catching on with any others?