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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 12/8/15, 6:06 am

DLBottleIt’s only Tuesday morning but, man, what a crazy week we’ve had. On Monday, The Donald positioned himself even closer to the Birchers and neo-Nazis. Even Dick Cheney had to dissociate himself from Trump’s outrageous policy proposal. I’m sure there will be more about this throughout the day. Please join us tonight for conversation over drinks at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. The Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 186 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 12/5/15, 12:00 am

How to save the planet and money this holiday season.

Lee Camp: Labeling people.

Chris Hayes: The G.O.P.’s new War on Women™ to gut Roe v Wade.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Inconditely Ugly!

White House: West Wing Week.

Larry Wilmore: Don’t mess with Tex books.

The 2016 Cavalcade of Crazy Conservative Clowns:

  • G.O.P.: Wrong on climate.
  • Aaaaawwwwwkkkkwaaaarrrrd moments as G.O.P. candidates court Jewish Republicans:

  • If Bernie Sanders solved problems like Trump.
  • Jimmy Dore: Donald Trump’s lie about cheering Muslims shocks Chuck Todd into journalism
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Trump is still a liar & new attack ad
  • Sam Seder: Trump wants network to pay him $5 million to debate.
  • Thom and Pap: The GOP plan to take down Trump.
  • Do Black pastors pro-Trump?
  • Farron Cousins: Trump tries to hide creepy supporters from the press.
  • Chris Hayes: GOP billionaires fear a Trump wipeout in 2016
  • Disabled people insult Donald Trump.
  • Matthew Filipowicz: How Trump Vs. Cruz Is Like Freddy Vs. Jason.
  • Maddow: New Trump lies compound his 9/11 lie.
  • Jimmy Dore: Donald Trump, Omarosa & Black pastors have wacky love fest
  • Syrian refugees respond to Ben Carson.
  • Michael Brooks: Kasich runs ad basically comparing Trump to Hitler
  • Trevor Noah: Ted Cruz’s treasure trove of raw footage:

  • Thom: Is Ted Cruz the most anti-woman candidate?
  • Young Turks: Ted Cruz fake rubber issue.
  • Maddow: Ted Cruz still defends anti-abortion terrorists.
  • Trevor: Everybody hates Ted Cruz.
  • David Pakman: Ted Cruz touted endorsement from activist who called for execution of abortion doctors.
  • Maddow: N.J. paper slams N.H. paper’s uninformed endorsement of Chris Christie.
  • Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie endorsement puts him on long list of LOSERS.

Trevor Noah: The fight against ISIS.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about eyes.

David Pakman: Bush & Cheney freed ISIS leader because he was “harmless”.

The glory days of the TSA.

Mental Floss: 37 facts about fruit.

Jimmy Dore: CNN to check facts & why that makes Jake Tapper cringe.

This Week in Gun Violence:

  • Larry Wilmore: Racism on FAUX News and attacks on Planned Parenthood
  • Trevor Noah: Attack on Planned Parenthood
  • Young Turks: FAUX News goes to damage control after “baby parts” propaganda campaign.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Another Day in the U.S.A….Another Mass Shooting.
  • Jimmy Dore: Republicans & the media inspired Planned Parenthood terrorist attack:

  • San Bernardino wasn’t the only mass shooting on Dec. 2
  • Thom: Another day, another mass shooting.
  • Trevor Noah: Progress in reducing gun violence
  • Pelosi: “We can no longer remain silent”
  • Harry Reid: The NRA is a ‘quasi-militant wing of the Republican party”.
  • Thom: God is not fixing gun violence
  • Ann Telnaes: Another mass shooting in America.
  • David Pakman: 351 mass shootings in 334 days in 2015
  • 14 killed 17 injured in San Bernardino, California
  • Young Turks: Paul Ryan wants to keep selling guns to people on TSA watch list
  • Jonathan Mann: Empty Prayers vs NRA Donations
  • Thom: White supremacists are scaring cities.
  • Backlash over “thoughts and prayers” following San Bernardino
  • Young Turks: How much did the NRA pay to buy your Senator?
  • Jimmy Dore: Only American culture is gun culture.
  • Mark Fiore: The Blood Never Dries
  • Ann Telnaes: Terrorist? Or gunman?

Quantum physics made easy.

Red State Update: Unboxing a giant American flag.

Friday political hot takes.

Sam Seder: Star GOP tweenage boy done with conservativism.

Pelosi slams GOP budget proposal

The G.O.P. is full of climate change deniers.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Claudicantly Ugly!

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard: Omnibus:

Jimmy Dore: Iraq war 2.0 is BACK, baby!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Holiday gift ideas

by Darryl — Thursday, 12/3/15, 3:43 pm

It’s that time of year.

If you are Donald Trump, all you want for Christmas is another high profile mass shooting. If you do the math, we can expect about 30 or 31 more mass shootings this year. Trump ought to get a couple of high profile ones out of that.

Merry Christmas, Donald!

For the rest of us, here’s an idea for a unique gift that almost everyone on your holiday gift list can use.

Give the ones you love a bullet-proof vest, or other types of body armor.

Sure…if we all did this, everyone would receive a bunch of these things. That’s okay…several vests can be useful. Stash one in the basement, one upstairs. Keep one at work. Stash one in the car…and one in the other car. Use one for stinky stuff, like hiking or running. And maybe keep a few spare around for guests with whom you are sharing an intimate hostile fire situation.

Brilliant, no?

Oh…and if Ben Carson is on you holiday list, pick him up some fresh hummus and a shiny new foreign policy adviser.

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Another Lunatic Fringe Right Wing theory shot to hell

by Darryl — Tuesday, 12/1/15, 11:53 pm

So…this is what Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was thinking about the other day:

When a reporter asked him at an Iowa campaign stop Sunday evening about suspect Robert Lewis Dear saying he was motivated by “no more baby parts,” Cruz countered that he’s also been reported to be a “transgendered [sic] leftist activist.”

Cruz explained, “We know that he was a man registered to vote as a woman.” This discrepancy on Dear’s voter registration was first reported by The Gateway Pundit, a self-described “right-of-center news website,” under the claim that he “identifies as [a] woman.” Conservatives have since run with the claim that Dear is transgender.

Yeah…that makes perfect sense. Because transgendered [sic] women always sport a full, scruffy beard and a mustache. You know, especially if they are “transgendered [sic] leftist activist[s].”

Reality turns out to be a bit more mundane:

Records show Dear traveled 65 miles to a Colorado Springs clerk and recorder’s office to obtain his driver’s license and his voter’s registration card, Parsell said.

Although Dear clearly identified himself as a man, the information was incorrectly logged into a computer, Parsell added.

“Our employee inadvertently clicked on ‘female’ and gave the confirmation to Mr. Dear to review,” he said. “He missed it and signed it.”

Thirteen days later, Dear received the erroneous driver’s license in the mail. Records show he traveled to a Department of Motor Vehicles office in Salida to report the error and request a corrected license, which he received, Parsell said.

To change his voter’s registration card, however, Dear would have had to mail a separate request to his local clerk and recorder’s office.

Crackpots of the week: Ted Cruz and the rest of the right wing “scruffy bearded transgendered woman” theorists.

Holy shit.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 12/1/15, 6:00 am

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and dinner at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 11/27/15, 10:22 pm

Lee Camp: Hell frozen over? A CEO is jailed!

PBS & NPR: Are pesticides to blame for the massive bee die-off?

The 2016 Clown Auditions:

  • The G.O.P. is the party of the past.
  • The G.O.P. Health Care plan? Repeal ObamaCare.
  • Sam Seder: Bedtime stories with Ben Carson…the imaginary crafting of the Constitution.
  • Young Turks: The bizarre “end times” beliefs of Dr. Ben Carson.
  • Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: Ben Carson’s stupidity is a national security threat
  • Maddow: Is Cruz courting the violent religious right?
  • Farron Cousins: Scientists confirm…Ted Cruz is roughly as intelligent as Kindergartners.
  • Maddow: Ted Cruz embraces religious radicals with violent message.:

  • Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz could win the nomination…and that should terrify Americans.
  • Stephen: The all-seeing NostraDonald
  • Chris Hayes: Trump doubles down on lies and violence.
  • Harry Shearer: Trump is the O.J. of politics.
  • Kasich PAC goes after Trump
  • Lawrence O’Donnell & friends: About that anti-Trump ad
  • Maddow: New devastating G.O.P. ad rips Trump!
  • Young Turks: Press now needs escorts for bathroom breaks at Trump rallies.
  • Sam Seder: Trump Mania—Waterboarding? Torture? Absolutely!
  • Farron Cousins: Is the Trumphole the most racist presidential candidate ever????
  • Maddow: Trumphole sticks to 9/11 lie & his campaign takes a dark turn.
  • David Pakman: Donald Trump calls for “registering” Muslims like animals
  • PsychoSuperMom: (Trump Can’t Hide) Your Lying Eyes.
  • Chris Hayes: Many Republicans are now calling Trump the “F-word”.
  • Jonathan Mann: Donald Trump reminds me of Hitler.
  • Inside the Trump hat factory.
  • Farron Cousins: G.O.P. wants Trump to disappear before he costs them the presidency
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at Trump’s racist claims:

  • Young Turks: Trump retweets fake statistics from a neo-Nazi.
  • Thom: Trump’s White Fascist Brigade
  • Farron Cousins: Trump and FAUX News want to bring back waterboarding.
  • Sam Seder: Trump Mania—Saw thousands of Arabs in N.J. cheering 9/11
  • David Packman: Huckabee says there will be no abortion when he is President.
  • Farron Cousins: Mike Huckabee wants Obama to wipe out Muslims

Minute Physics: Why isn’t it faster to fly West?

Pap: Corporate media wants you to be stupid. Let’s fight back.

Mitch McConnell drinks.

Refugophobia:

  • Young Turks: Asshat Congressman (R) says refugees just want paid vacations.
  • Jonathan Mann: Jesus was a refugee.
  • David Pakman: Obama explains to Republicans that you can’t keep refugees out of your state.
  • Richard Fowler: Obama calls G.O.P. stance on refugees “shameful”
  • Young Turks: Game of Thrones author schools Republicans on refugees
  • Stephen: Presidential Medal Of Honor recipient Gloria Estefan knows what it’s like to be a refugee

Thom with Steven Gaffney: Really! How do you know a politician is lying?

Jimmy Dore: God refuses to apologize for Paris.

California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (with Bill Maher): Why raise the minimum wage.

Redacted Tonight comedy special with Lee Camp.

Farron Cousins: Corporate media is hungering for a war.

Actual Terrorism That Happened in the U.S. This Week:

  • Young Turks: Armed masked men intimidate Black Lives Matter protests.
  • Terrorists strike in Minneapolis
  • Young Turks: 5 BLM protesters shot
  • Liberal Viewer: FOX News omits key Planned Parenthood statement on Colorado Springs shooting.
  • News coverage: Terrorist attack in Colorado.

Congressional hits and misses: Thanksgiving leftovers edition.

John Oliver: Pennies.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & The Very, Very Gallionicly Ugly!

David Pakman: World hunger is a social construction.

Young Turks: Koch brothers building their own CIA to spy on progressives.

Surviving the survivalist game.

Quagmire Happening:

  • Young Turks: Turkey shoots down Russian fighter plane
  • Turkey shoots down Russian fighter.
  • Assad talks peace while chemical weapons become routine.

Jimmy Dore: Not drunk Bill O’Reilly calls about Muslims, responsibility & Muslims:

David Pakman: More Mexicans are leaving U.S. than coming in to the U.S.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Origin of the “freakin’ Presidential turkey pardon”.

Thom: Why the Kochs really embrace criminal justice reform.

Stop war and start cuddling.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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HA spoils your Thanksgiving

by Darryl — Thursday, 11/26/15, 6:05 am

Obama pardons Honest and Abe.

Family Fellowship:

  • Thanksgiving in 90 seconds.
  • SNL: A Thanksgiving miracle.
  • David Pakman: How to deal with your ill-informed relative at Thanksgiving.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Guns.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Islamophobia
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Climate change
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Planned Parenthood.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Marriage equality
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Minimum wage.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Voter ID
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Refugees and terrorism
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Immigration and employment.

Classic: Sarah Palin’s Thanksgiving massacre:

Red State Update: Happy Trumpsgiving.

Trevor’s Thanksgiving Thankstacular Round-Up.

Thanksgiving Stuffing:

  • What it takes to burn off your Thanksgiving dinner.
  • Too full to fuck.:

  • The Ham-a-Day club.

Mental Floss: What’s the difference between American and Canadian Thanksgiving?

The Morning After:

  • Roy Zimmerman: I’m dreaming of a Black Friday:

  • Professor Mike Yard’s Guide to Black Friday
  • Ann Telnaes: What the Republicans would like to return after Thanksgiving.

Mark Fiore: Learn to draw Republican Turkeys.

Stephen calls the Butterball Turkey Talk Line:

  • Part I
  • Part II

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/24/15, 6:24 am

DLBottleThe past week in politics has been absolutely crazy. Conservatives have developed bladder control issues as they cower at the thought of refugees coming into the U.S. Some Washington State lawmakers joined right in on the public display of cowardice. A leading Presidential candidate has been spewing incredibly racist lies, apparently to stoke his base. And that just touches on the week’s wackiness.

Please join us for some sane political conversation over the beverage of your choice at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. And the Woodinville, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

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Vitter’s loss has huge implications

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/21/15, 9:56 pm

Sen. Vitter reenactmentSen. David “Diaperman” Vitter (R-LA) has lost today’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana. Vitter was defeated by Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards (LA-72), who has led in all recent polling for the race.

Vitter is infamous for a 2007 sex scandal when his phone number was among those found in the “D.C. Madam’s” phone book. Vitter responded to the scandal by offering an apology with his wife, Wendy, by his side, in what might be the most awkward political moment in history. And he refused to resign.

The moniker “Diaperman” is from reports that the Senator enjoyed diaper play with at least one prostitute.

Despite the scandal, Vitter was reelected to his U.S. Senate seat in 2010. This year he ran for Governor.

Vitter’s opponent, John Bel Edwards, made effective use of Vitter’s prostitution scandal.

This race has a number of implications. First, it means that the Democrats have won back a Governor’s seat. Bobby Jindal (R) has been the Governor since 2008, but must step down on account of term limits. Jindal ran for the G.O.P. presidential nomination for 2016, but dropped out this past week.

The second big implication has to do with Vitter’s Senate seat. Vitter can run for reelection to the U.S. Senate. But tonight Vitter announced he will not run for reelection. Furthermore, he said he will fulfill the last year of his Senate term.

The implications for this are huge. If Vitter resigned now, Jindal would be able to appoint a replacement who would, effectively, be an incumbent for 2016. But Vitter and Jindal hate each other, so Vitter will not give Jindal the opportunity to pick a successor. The result is that the U.S. Senate 3rd class seat for Louisiana will be an open race in 2016.

In my recent analysis of the Senate race, Democrats would most likely win 49 seats if the election was held now. That analysis assumed that (1) Vitter would lose the gubernatorial race, (2) Vitter would run as the incumbent for his seat, and (3) he would win with 100% certainty.

Now we know that will not happen. Instead there will be an open seat in Louisiana for 2016. It is too early to tell who the candidates will be. Both sides have potential strong candidates, but none have declared yet. We do know that the strongest candidates on each side, Bobby Jindal (R) and Mary Landrieu (D), have declined to run. Maybe they will reconsider.

I usually stay away from predictions, but I’ll offer a conditional prediction here. If the Democrats manage to reach at least 50 seats in 2016, it will be because Louisiana elected a Democrat to the Senate.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/21/15, 12:06 am

Starbucks responds to War-on-Christmas-Cup-gate.

The adventures of Young Hillary: One Woman Play.

Seals help scientists study climate change in Greenland.

Mental Floss: 52 facts about popular cities.

Paris Attacks Turn Wingnuts into Blubbering Cowards:

  • Mark Fiore: Keep Calm and Panic On
  • SNL tribute to Paris.
  • Parris attacks: Three misguided reactions.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Where is the Judeo in Judeo Christian?
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Syrian refugee debate
  • Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Obama says refugee debate is un-American
  • Thom: How Western militarists play into the hands of Isis
  • Maddow: Wacko Republican refugee bill passes House
  • Ugly Islamophobia after Paris attacks.
  • David Pakman: Attacks notwithstanding, France will admit more Syrian refugees.
  • Huh…France is still welcoming Syrian refugees.
  • Trevor: The three stages of political grief.
  • Stephen: No country for anyone not already here.
  • Thom to Republicans: Please stop helping ISIS
  • Nancy Pelosi on Anti-Syrian refugee bill.
  • John Oliver on Paris attacks
  • Obama slams GOP on refugees.

Adam Ruins Internships.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Sleepover games.

Stephen does Bill Maher

The 2016 Cascade of Clowns:

  • Seth Meyers: Late night Republican debate.

  • Inciting fear isn’t presidential
  • Friday hot takes
  • David Pakman: Goodbye Jindal
  • In Memoriam: Jindal campaign
  • Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Ted Cruz issues school-yard taunt
  • Farron Cousins: Why does Rubio get a free pass for his scandals?
  • Young Turks: Chris Christie still thinks terrorists were Syrian refugees
  • Cowards Paul Ryan and Donald Trump say no to refugees
  • Larry Wilmore: Ben Carson’s messed-up map.
  • David Pakman: Carson’s Sarah Palin moment.
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson needs briefings to “make him smart”
  • Trevor: Ben Carson’s public break-up.
  • David Pakman: Ben Carson warns of the severe dangers of free college
  • Trump and Carson insanity: ‘Register’ the Muslims and keep out the ‘dogs’.
  • Pap & Farron Cousins: Trump calls American’s stupid. (And if he’s winning…he might be right!)
  • Sam Seder: Trump wants to database all U.S. Muslims. It’s just “Good Management.”
  • Maddow: Worlds collide…Reading poetry at a Donald Trump rally
  • Stephen: Start getting used to saying “President Trump”.
  • John Mulaney (with Seth Meyers): Donald Trump to a really good family feud contestant
  • Young Turks: Donald Trump wants to tag Muslims like cattle
  • Maddow: Trump endorses tracking Muslims in U.S.
  • Sam Seder: Jeb Bush is pretty sure people can prove they are Christian
  • Trevor: Mike Huckabee’s food-based politics:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the brain.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Is there any group the FAUX News doesn’t hate.

Unintended Consequences:

  • Matthew Filipowicz: Study suggests over 100,000 women have induced their own abortions after clinic closures
  • David Pakman: Back alley abortions in Texas.
  • Young Turks: Self-induced abortions in Texas.

Stephen: You know nothing, Barack Obama.

The adventures of Young Hillary: Teaching the less fortunate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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The Uterid

by Darryl — Wednesday, 11/18/15, 12:03 am

Once upon a July day, Washington Republican leaders were haunted by thoughts of lady parts making baby parts with capitalist intent.

“We will investigate this outrage of endometrial entrepreneurship!”, they cried from the belfry.

The scrivener issued a clarifying scroll, “Yes, we believe in free markets, unless a uterus is involved. And then we demand Big Government Regulations”

So they hatched a bold plan to use Collective Action to get the job done:

Thirty-four Republican state representatives have asked state Attorney General Bob Ferguson to investigate whether Planned Parenthood affiliates in the state have illegally profited from the sale of fetal body parts.

The leaders waited as General Ferguson’s investigation underwent a months-long gestation. They would take the fruits borne of this disquisition, parade the findings before the masses, take them apart and serially disseminate them in pursuit of political contributions.

But the fruits were bitter and cruel to the union of uterine-overseers. There was no nourishment to be had for their War on Women™.

In a 48-page report, Attorney General Bob Ferguson rejected claims that Planned Parenthood has performed partial-birth abortions or that any of its clinics sell fetal tissue for profit “rather than simply recovering costs.”

“We found no indication that procedures performed by Planned Parenthood are anything other than performance of a legally authorized medical procedure,” Ferguson wrote in his report.

Ferguson’s findings are particularly important because Washington is one of only two states where a Planned Parenthood clinic allows women to donate fetal tissue to medical research. The report is a result of a four-month investigation, which was requested by state Republican leaders.

There was no endometrial entrepreneurship to be found in the lands. The report was barren and lifeless. Their plans to sew the seeds of discontent and grow their coffers would have to be aborted.

“Surely, the investigation has overlooked something.”

“We’ll keep looking and root out endometrial entrepreneurship yon.”

More than a dozen other states have also ended investigations of Planned Parenthood without finding any illegal or suspicious activity.

“Inconceivable”, some bellowed.

“Unbearable findings”, others howled.

“More investigation!,” one cried.

“Yes…More investigation!”, another.

And they satisfied themselves by repeating the chant in rhythm, until their distant leaders took their cause.

Congressional leaders have announced their own probe into the organization, which consists of about a dozen members from both parties.

They were, once again, filled with great hope of finding endometrial entrepreneurship, but only so that they could properly abhor it. And plant the seeds of fundraising.

And so it goes.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/17/15, 6:05 am

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Poll Analysis: Senate Outlook 2016

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/15/15, 8:57 pm


Pres. Senate to Dems* Senate to GOP
Democratic: 43.3% probability 56.7% probability
Republican: 5.6% probability 94.5% probability
Mean of 49 seats Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It is way too early to make much of anything out of the 2016 Senate head-to-head polls. After all, we still have a primary season to go before we know who will be on the ballot. Still…there is just enough polling to give us an “early-first-quarter score” in the Senate races.

Currently, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who hold 54 seats. Democrats hold 45 seats, plus Maine’s Sen. Angus King caucuses with the Democrats. In 2016, there will be 34 senatorial elections, all of the Senate’s “third class.” (There could be additional special elections as well, but I am not aware of any right now.) The current crop of Senators were elected in 2010, a Republican wave off-year election. Six years later, Republicans find themselves with 24 seats to defend and Democrats with 10 seats to defend, in a presidential election year.

I’ve spent a bit of time trying to divine the candidates most likely to appear on the ballot. In some cases, it was easy. Rand Paul will appear as the G.O.P. nominee in the Kentucky race. (You know…assuming his struggling presidential campaign continues its current trajectory.) Incumbents tend to get their party’s nomination, although there are retirements, like Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). In some states, front-runners are obvious, like in Wisconsin where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will almost certainly go up against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D). When there are multiple candidates, I’ve tried to use primary polls, newspaper accounts, FEC numbers, and other sources to find the strongest or most likely candidate to advance to the general. You can see which candidates I’ve advanced to the general by looking at the polls page.

I’ve found state head-to-head polls in 15 races and no polls for 19 races. Polled states tend to be the ones with the most competitive Senate races OR states with some other importance. For example, there are many polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the early caucus/primary states. I’ve found a total of 69 polls to date, so clearly there are multiple polls for many of the 15 races. States without polling are assumed to go to the party currently holding the seat.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 5,553 times, there were 37,718 ties, and Republicans have a Senate majority 56,729 times. In the event of a 50 seat tie, the President’s party controls (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 3). If Sec. Hillary Clinton wins, Democrats have a 43.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 56.7% probability of controlling the Senate. If Clinton loses, Republicans would almost certainly (94.5% probability) maintain control of the Senate.

The good news for Democrats is that they are likely to gain 4 seats and have a good shot of taking control if they win the presidential election. The good news for Republicans is that they are still more likely than not to control the Senate. They can either lose 4 or fewer seats or lose 5 seats plus win the presidential election.

Let’s examine a few of the races.

[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/14/15, 12:04 am

How the Keystone victory was won.

Mental Floss: What causes motion sickness?

Tweety: GOP Sen. Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots.

Romance with a young Hillary Rodham.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

  • How many time was the middle class mentioned?
  • Maddow: Politicians’ ‘secret information,’ a factual red flag.
  • Republicans want to reverse our progress.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Their lips are movin’….
  • Daily Show: What the actual fact?!?

  • Young Turks: The 4th G.O.P. debate.
  • Farron Cousins: Republicans promote the same failed policies. Why do people vote for these idiots?
  • “Memorable” quotes from the 4th G.O.P. debate
  • Red State Update watches the GOP debate
  • Seth Meyers: GOP Debate Wrap-up
  • Stephen: The 4th GOP debate was a thing that happened.
  • David Pakman: How many stories have Ben Carson fabricated?
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson releases liberal media diss track

  • Young Turks: Ben Carson’s evolution on minimum wage.
  • Stephen: Did Ben Carson really try to stab a dude?
  • Young Turks: Ben Carson’s on China and ISIS
  • Sam Seder: The Official Ben Carson Song.
  • Panderdom: Ben Carson’s new Hip-Hop radio ad.
  • Ben Carson’s past is scarier when accompanied by metal
  • Judd Apatow is voting for Ben Carson.
  • Sam Seder: What part of Ben Carson owning a time machine do you not understand?
  • Young Turks: Trump goes after Carson on knife story.
  • Trump son’s are back to defend their dad.
  • Young Turks: Trump’s modern “Operation Wetback” is even too nuts for Bill-O-the-Clown!
  • Matthew Filipowicz: WTF? Donald Trump is against raising the minimum wage and actually thinks wages are too high?!?:

  • Ron White explains the flaws in Trump’s wall plan.
  • Young Turks: Donald Trump is really mocking Hillary’s hair?
  • Sam Seder: Jeb not cool with Marco!
  • Stephen: Baby Hitler is no match for Jeb.
  • What G.O.P. tax plans really mean.
  • An interview with Lindsey Graham, hairstylist
  • Sam Seder: Ted Cruz will cut every federal agency he can remember.

Minute Physics: How to go to space.

Mark Fiore: Climate Interuptus.

Maddow: $15/Hr nationwide strike by fast food workers.

Stephen: Senators McCaskill & Klobuchar explain how women get things done.

Trevor: The Myanmar Daily Show.

David Pakman: New jobs accelerate as unemployment keeps dropping.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Thom: The good, the bad, and the very, very osmagoguely ugly!.

Our generation our choice.

Daily Show: Solution for outdated voting machines.

Maddow: Arizona Republican’s border wall flops! Oops.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clown thinks all colleges are fascist training camps.

Honest Political Ads: Meet Mrs. Fullbright.

Dick Cheney is the GOP guest of “honor” this week.

Stephen: The next debate will feature Hillary, Bernie and Mumford & Sons (sp?).

War on Christmas Caffeine:

  • Nutbagger thinks Starbucks hates baby Jesus
  • Stephen: Putting the Christ Back In C(hrist)offee.
  • Young Turks: Trump bizarre Starbuck’s rant.
  • New and improved Starbucks holiday cups
  • Farron Cousins: The Republican War on War on Christmas™ starts early this year.
  • Ellen: The great Starbucks cup controversy.

Young Hillary gets ready to party.

How to speak like a presidential candidate.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about GOP Candidate Whine wine.

Farron Cousins: Make voting day a national holiday.

How its built: Political scandals.

Young Turks: WA school football coach won’t stop leading prayers.

Adam Ruins Everything: The Electoral College:

David Pakman: FAUX News hosts confused about good jobs numbers.

Stephen: Climate change and coital frequency.

Young Turks: Good news in the battle for voter rights.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Hillary in the stacks .

Harry Reid’s special relationship with Roll Call’s Niels Lesniewski.

John Oliver: Prisoner re-entry.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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GOP Debate open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/10/15, 5:51 pm

      Okay…it is not clear whether we can watch the debate here at Drinking Liberally, but I’ll be streaming and listening on a laptop.

Feel free to go at it in the comment thread.

5:58: Okay…audio and video are up and running here at the Roanoke.

When did we start with the national anthem before debates?

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) November 11, 2015

6:00: National anthem before a debate suggest this is some kind of fucking sporting event! Let there be BLOOOOOOOODDDDDDD!!!

6:03: Holy fuck…get on with it already.

6:04: Why is Paul in there? Most pollsters don’t even bother doing Clinton-Paul match-ups anymore.

Ha ha it’s a hoax debate everyone! Here’s $10!

— David Waldman (@KagroX) November 11, 2015

6:08: Carson blatantly lies about the effect of raising minimum wage.

Carson is about 50 times more animated in this debate than in the last one. And, no, he is still not that animated.

— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) November 11, 2015

6:10: Shorter Rubio: America is great because we have poor people for the rich to exploit.

Raising the minimum wage works. #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/b1KkxLNUqk

— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) November 11, 2015

Rubio – “We need more welders, not philosophers.” Umm… Didn’t your party ship all the welding jobs overseas? #GOPDebate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) November 11, 2015

6:14: Kasich on balancing the budget. I recall that Clinton did that, and that Shrub shot that to hell. Lesson: If you are fiscally responsible don’t elect a Bush or a Republican.

Kasich has choppy hands.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) November 11, 2015

#GOPDebate: Reducing #deficit emerged as top Republican priority shortly after Obama took office pic.twitter.com/p659yrpsPB

— Alec Tyson (@alec_h_tyson) November 11, 2015

6:18: FAUX debate moderator doesn’t appear to understand “participation rate”.

6:20: Jeb Bush’s new platform: Repeal Everything Obama.

6:21: Fiorina uncomfortably wedges a anecdote in to a profound non-answer.

Unemployment is 5%. That's what Romney said he'd get to as a goal. The recovery is because WAGES ARE TOO LOW.

— Dante Atkins (@DanteAtkins) November 11, 2015

That first question on a $15 minimum wage was so riddled with lies it screwed up my streaming feed.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) November 11, 2015

Carly Fiorina Shares Heartbreaking Story About Father Of 3 Who Couldn’t Meet Sales Goals https://t.co/a5VgUxX4Kc pic.twitter.com/L0gCCf53y9

— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 11, 2015

Great thing about living in WA, if any of these clowns actually wins, this is a Death with Dignity state. #GOPDEbate https://t.co/xM0cMc464J

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Carly Fiorina is one of the more effortless liars I've heard

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) November 11, 2015

Paul: "I want a govt really, really small—so small you can barely see it." Oh. Then just use Paul as your ophthalmologist. Done! #GOPDebate

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Carly’s extensive business background has taught her that money is fungible.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) November 11, 2015

All these #GOPDebates on cable biz/news channels make me proud to be an American who doesn't subscribe to cable.

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Ted Cruz has very bad ideas about monetary policy but, unlike many of these candidates, he has at least thought about it extensively.

— Josh Barro (@jbarro) November 11, 2015

This has been the most painful discussion of monetary policy since William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech in 1896.

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) November 11, 2015

Well, that was awful.

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