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HA spoils your Thanksgiving

by Darryl — Thursday, 11/26/15, 6:05 am

Obama pardons Honest and Abe.

Family Fellowship:

  • Thanksgiving in 90 seconds.
  • SNL: A Thanksgiving miracle.
  • David Pakman: How to deal with your ill-informed relative at Thanksgiving.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Guns.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Islamophobia
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Climate change
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Planned Parenthood.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Marriage equality
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Minimum wage.
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Voter ID
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Refugees and terrorism
  • Thanksgiving survival guide: Immigration and employment.

Classic: Sarah Palin’s Thanksgiving massacre:

Red State Update: Happy Trumpsgiving.

Trevor’s Thanksgiving Thankstacular Round-Up.

Thanksgiving Stuffing:

  • What it takes to burn off your Thanksgiving dinner.
  • Too full to fuck.:

  • The Ham-a-Day club.

Mental Floss: What’s the difference between American and Canadian Thanksgiving?

The Morning After:

  • Roy Zimmerman: I’m dreaming of a Black Friday:

  • Professor Mike Yard’s Guide to Black Friday
  • Ann Telnaes: What the Republicans would like to return after Thanksgiving.

Mark Fiore: Learn to draw Republican Turkeys.

Stephen calls the Butterball Turkey Talk Line:

  • Part I
  • Part II

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/24/15, 6:24 am

DLBottleThe past week in politics has been absolutely crazy. Conservatives have developed bladder control issues as they cower at the thought of refugees coming into the U.S. Some Washington State lawmakers joined right in on the public display of cowardice. A leading Presidential candidate has been spewing incredibly racist lies, apparently to stoke his base. And that just touches on the week’s wackiness.

Please join us for some sane political conversation over the beverage of your choice at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. And the Woodinville, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

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Vitter’s loss has huge implications

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/21/15, 9:56 pm

Sen. Vitter reenactmentSen. David “Diaperman” Vitter (R-LA) has lost today’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana. Vitter was defeated by Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards (LA-72), who has led in all recent polling for the race.

Vitter is infamous for a 2007 sex scandal when his phone number was among those found in the “D.C. Madam’s” phone book. Vitter responded to the scandal by offering an apology with his wife, Wendy, by his side, in what might be the most awkward political moment in history. And he refused to resign.

The moniker “Diaperman” is from reports that the Senator enjoyed diaper play with at least one prostitute.

Despite the scandal, Vitter was reelected to his U.S. Senate seat in 2010. This year he ran for Governor.

Vitter’s opponent, John Bel Edwards, made effective use of Vitter’s prostitution scandal.

This race has a number of implications. First, it means that the Democrats have won back a Governor’s seat. Bobby Jindal (R) has been the Governor since 2008, but must step down on account of term limits. Jindal ran for the G.O.P. presidential nomination for 2016, but dropped out this past week.

The second big implication has to do with Vitter’s Senate seat. Vitter can run for reelection to the U.S. Senate. But tonight Vitter announced he will not run for reelection. Furthermore, he said he will fulfill the last year of his Senate term.

The implications for this are huge. If Vitter resigned now, Jindal would be able to appoint a replacement who would, effectively, be an incumbent for 2016. But Vitter and Jindal hate each other, so Vitter will not give Jindal the opportunity to pick a successor. The result is that the U.S. Senate 3rd class seat for Louisiana will be an open race in 2016.

In my recent analysis of the Senate race, Democrats would most likely win 49 seats if the election was held now. That analysis assumed that (1) Vitter would lose the gubernatorial race, (2) Vitter would run as the incumbent for his seat, and (3) he would win with 100% certainty.

Now we know that will not happen. Instead there will be an open seat in Louisiana for 2016. It is too early to tell who the candidates will be. Both sides have potential strong candidates, but none have declared yet. We do know that the strongest candidates on each side, Bobby Jindal (R) and Mary Landrieu (D), have declined to run. Maybe they will reconsider.

I usually stay away from predictions, but I’ll offer a conditional prediction here. If the Democrats manage to reach at least 50 seats in 2016, it will be because Louisiana elected a Democrat to the Senate.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/21/15, 12:06 am

Starbucks responds to War-on-Christmas-Cup-gate.

The adventures of Young Hillary: One Woman Play.

Seals help scientists study climate change in Greenland.

Mental Floss: 52 facts about popular cities.

Paris Attacks Turn Wingnuts into Blubbering Cowards:

  • Mark Fiore: Keep Calm and Panic On
  • SNL tribute to Paris.
  • Parris attacks: Three misguided reactions.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Where is the Judeo in Judeo Christian?
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Syrian refugee debate
  • Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Obama says refugee debate is un-American
  • Thom: How Western militarists play into the hands of Isis
  • Maddow: Wacko Republican refugee bill passes House
  • Ugly Islamophobia after Paris attacks.
  • David Pakman: Attacks notwithstanding, France will admit more Syrian refugees.
  • Huh…France is still welcoming Syrian refugees.
  • Trevor: The three stages of political grief.
  • Stephen: No country for anyone not already here.
  • Thom to Republicans: Please stop helping ISIS
  • Nancy Pelosi on Anti-Syrian refugee bill.
  • John Oliver on Paris attacks
  • Obama slams GOP on refugees.

Adam Ruins Internships.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Sleepover games.

Stephen does Bill Maher

The 2016 Cascade of Clowns:

  • Seth Meyers: Late night Republican debate.

  • Inciting fear isn’t presidential
  • Friday hot takes
  • David Pakman: Goodbye Jindal
  • In Memoriam: Jindal campaign
  • Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Ted Cruz issues school-yard taunt
  • Farron Cousins: Why does Rubio get a free pass for his scandals?
  • Young Turks: Chris Christie still thinks terrorists were Syrian refugees
  • Cowards Paul Ryan and Donald Trump say no to refugees
  • Larry Wilmore: Ben Carson’s messed-up map.
  • David Pakman: Carson’s Sarah Palin moment.
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson needs briefings to “make him smart”
  • Trevor: Ben Carson’s public break-up.
  • David Pakman: Ben Carson warns of the severe dangers of free college
  • Trump and Carson insanity: ‘Register’ the Muslims and keep out the ‘dogs’.
  • Pap & Farron Cousins: Trump calls American’s stupid. (And if he’s winning…he might be right!)
  • Sam Seder: Trump wants to database all U.S. Muslims. It’s just “Good Management.”
  • Maddow: Worlds collide…Reading poetry at a Donald Trump rally
  • Stephen: Start getting used to saying “President Trump”.
  • John Mulaney (with Seth Meyers): Donald Trump to a really good family feud contestant
  • Young Turks: Donald Trump wants to tag Muslims like cattle
  • Maddow: Trump endorses tracking Muslims in U.S.
  • Sam Seder: Jeb Bush is pretty sure people can prove they are Christian
  • Trevor: Mike Huckabee’s food-based politics:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the brain.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Is there any group the FAUX News doesn’t hate.

Unintended Consequences:

  • Matthew Filipowicz: Study suggests over 100,000 women have induced their own abortions after clinic closures
  • David Pakman: Back alley abortions in Texas.
  • Young Turks: Self-induced abortions in Texas.

Stephen: You know nothing, Barack Obama.

The adventures of Young Hillary: Teaching the less fortunate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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The Uterid

by Darryl — Wednesday, 11/18/15, 12:03 am

Once upon a July day, Washington Republican leaders were haunted by thoughts of lady parts making baby parts with capitalist intent.

“We will investigate this outrage of endometrial entrepreneurship!”, they cried from the belfry.

The scrivener issued a clarifying scroll, “Yes, we believe in free markets, unless a uterus is involved. And then we demand Big Government Regulations”

So they hatched a bold plan to use Collective Action to get the job done:

Thirty-four Republican state representatives have asked state Attorney General Bob Ferguson to investigate whether Planned Parenthood affiliates in the state have illegally profited from the sale of fetal body parts.

The leaders waited as General Ferguson’s investigation underwent a months-long gestation. They would take the fruits borne of this disquisition, parade the findings before the masses, take them apart and serially disseminate them in pursuit of political contributions.

But the fruits were bitter and cruel to the union of uterine-overseers. There was no nourishment to be had for their War on Women™.

In a 48-page report, Attorney General Bob Ferguson rejected claims that Planned Parenthood has performed partial-birth abortions or that any of its clinics sell fetal tissue for profit “rather than simply recovering costs.”

“We found no indication that procedures performed by Planned Parenthood are anything other than performance of a legally authorized medical procedure,” Ferguson wrote in his report.

Ferguson’s findings are particularly important because Washington is one of only two states where a Planned Parenthood clinic allows women to donate fetal tissue to medical research. The report is a result of a four-month investigation, which was requested by state Republican leaders.

There was no endometrial entrepreneurship to be found in the lands. The report was barren and lifeless. Their plans to sew the seeds of discontent and grow their coffers would have to be aborted.

“Surely, the investigation has overlooked something.”

“We’ll keep looking and root out endometrial entrepreneurship yon.”

More than a dozen other states have also ended investigations of Planned Parenthood without finding any illegal or suspicious activity.

“Inconceivable”, some bellowed.

“Unbearable findings”, others howled.

“More investigation!,” one cried.

“Yes…More investigation!”, another.

And they satisfied themselves by repeating the chant in rhythm, until their distant leaders took their cause.

Congressional leaders have announced their own probe into the organization, which consists of about a dozen members from both parties.

They were, once again, filled with great hope of finding endometrial entrepreneurship, but only so that they could properly abhor it. And plant the seeds of fundraising.

And so it goes.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/17/15, 6:05 am

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Poll Analysis: Senate Outlook 2016

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/15/15, 8:57 pm


Pres. Senate to Dems* Senate to GOP
Democratic: 43.3% probability 56.7% probability
Republican: 5.6% probability 94.5% probability
Mean of 49 seats Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It is way too early to make much of anything out of the 2016 Senate head-to-head polls. After all, we still have a primary season to go before we know who will be on the ballot. Still…there is just enough polling to give us an “early-first-quarter score” in the Senate races.

Currently, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who hold 54 seats. Democrats hold 45 seats, plus Maine’s Sen. Angus King caucuses with the Democrats. In 2016, there will be 34 senatorial elections, all of the Senate’s “third class.” (There could be additional special elections as well, but I am not aware of any right now.) The current crop of Senators were elected in 2010, a Republican wave off-year election. Six years later, Republicans find themselves with 24 seats to defend and Democrats with 10 seats to defend, in a presidential election year.

I’ve spent a bit of time trying to divine the candidates most likely to appear on the ballot. In some cases, it was easy. Rand Paul will appear as the G.O.P. nominee in the Kentucky race. (You know…assuming his struggling presidential campaign continues its current trajectory.) Incumbents tend to get their party’s nomination, although there are retirements, like Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). In some states, front-runners are obvious, like in Wisconsin where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will almost certainly go up against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D). When there are multiple candidates, I’ve tried to use primary polls, newspaper accounts, FEC numbers, and other sources to find the strongest or most likely candidate to advance to the general. You can see which candidates I’ve advanced to the general by looking at the polls page.

I’ve found state head-to-head polls in 15 races and no polls for 19 races. Polled states tend to be the ones with the most competitive Senate races OR states with some other importance. For example, there are many polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the early caucus/primary states. I’ve found a total of 69 polls to date, so clearly there are multiple polls for many of the 15 races. States without polling are assumed to go to the party currently holding the seat.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 5,553 times, there were 37,718 ties, and Republicans have a Senate majority 56,729 times. In the event of a 50 seat tie, the President’s party controls (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 3). If Sec. Hillary Clinton wins, Democrats have a 43.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 56.7% probability of controlling the Senate. If Clinton loses, Republicans would almost certainly (94.5% probability) maintain control of the Senate.

The good news for Democrats is that they are likely to gain 4 seats and have a good shot of taking control if they win the presidential election. The good news for Republicans is that they are still more likely than not to control the Senate. They can either lose 4 or fewer seats or lose 5 seats plus win the presidential election.

Let’s examine a few of the races.

[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/14/15, 12:04 am

How the Keystone victory was won.

Mental Floss: What causes motion sickness?

Tweety: GOP Sen. Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots.

Romance with a young Hillary Rodham.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

  • How many time was the middle class mentioned?
  • Maddow: Politicians’ ‘secret information,’ a factual red flag.
  • Republicans want to reverse our progress.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Their lips are movin’….
  • Daily Show: What the actual fact?!?

  • Young Turks: The 4th G.O.P. debate.
  • Farron Cousins: Republicans promote the same failed policies. Why do people vote for these idiots?
  • “Memorable” quotes from the 4th G.O.P. debate
  • Red State Update watches the GOP debate
  • Seth Meyers: GOP Debate Wrap-up
  • Stephen: The 4th GOP debate was a thing that happened.
  • David Pakman: How many stories have Ben Carson fabricated?
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson releases liberal media diss track

  • Young Turks: Ben Carson’s evolution on minimum wage.
  • Stephen: Did Ben Carson really try to stab a dude?
  • Young Turks: Ben Carson’s on China and ISIS
  • Sam Seder: The Official Ben Carson Song.
  • Panderdom: Ben Carson’s new Hip-Hop radio ad.
  • Ben Carson’s past is scarier when accompanied by metal
  • Judd Apatow is voting for Ben Carson.
  • Sam Seder: What part of Ben Carson owning a time machine do you not understand?
  • Young Turks: Trump goes after Carson on knife story.
  • Trump son’s are back to defend their dad.
  • Young Turks: Trump’s modern “Operation Wetback” is even too nuts for Bill-O-the-Clown!
  • Matthew Filipowicz: WTF? Donald Trump is against raising the minimum wage and actually thinks wages are too high?!?:

  • Ron White explains the flaws in Trump’s wall plan.
  • Young Turks: Donald Trump is really mocking Hillary’s hair?
  • Sam Seder: Jeb not cool with Marco!
  • Stephen: Baby Hitler is no match for Jeb.
  • What G.O.P. tax plans really mean.
  • An interview with Lindsey Graham, hairstylist
  • Sam Seder: Ted Cruz will cut every federal agency he can remember.

Minute Physics: How to go to space.

Mark Fiore: Climate Interuptus.

Maddow: $15/Hr nationwide strike by fast food workers.

Stephen: Senators McCaskill & Klobuchar explain how women get things done.

Trevor: The Myanmar Daily Show.

David Pakman: New jobs accelerate as unemployment keeps dropping.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Thom: The good, the bad, and the very, very osmagoguely ugly!.

Our generation our choice.

Daily Show: Solution for outdated voting machines.

Maddow: Arizona Republican’s border wall flops! Oops.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clown thinks all colleges are fascist training camps.

Honest Political Ads: Meet Mrs. Fullbright.

Dick Cheney is the GOP guest of “honor” this week.

Stephen: The next debate will feature Hillary, Bernie and Mumford & Sons (sp?).

War on Christmas Caffeine:

  • Nutbagger thinks Starbucks hates baby Jesus
  • Stephen: Putting the Christ Back In C(hrist)offee.
  • Young Turks: Trump bizarre Starbuck’s rant.
  • New and improved Starbucks holiday cups
  • Farron Cousins: The Republican War on War on Christmas™ starts early this year.
  • Ellen: The great Starbucks cup controversy.

Young Hillary gets ready to party.

How to speak like a presidential candidate.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about GOP Candidate Whine wine.

Farron Cousins: Make voting day a national holiday.

How its built: Political scandals.

Young Turks: WA school football coach won’t stop leading prayers.

Adam Ruins Everything: The Electoral College:

David Pakman: FAUX News hosts confused about good jobs numbers.

Stephen: Climate change and coital frequency.

Young Turks: Good news in the battle for voter rights.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Hillary in the stacks .

Harry Reid’s special relationship with Roll Call’s Niels Lesniewski.

John Oliver: Prisoner re-entry.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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GOP Debate open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/10/15, 5:51 pm

      Okay…it is not clear whether we can watch the debate here at Drinking Liberally, but I’ll be streaming and listening on a laptop.

Feel free to go at it in the comment thread.

5:58: Okay…audio and video are up and running here at the Roanoke.

When did we start with the national anthem before debates?

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) November 11, 2015

6:00: National anthem before a debate suggest this is some kind of fucking sporting event! Let there be BLOOOOOOOODDDDDDD!!!

6:03: Holy fuck…get on with it already.

6:04: Why is Paul in there? Most pollsters don’t even bother doing Clinton-Paul match-ups anymore.

Ha ha it’s a hoax debate everyone! Here’s $10!

— David Waldman (@KagroX) November 11, 2015

6:08: Carson blatantly lies about the effect of raising minimum wage.

Carson is about 50 times more animated in this debate than in the last one. And, no, he is still not that animated.

— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) November 11, 2015

6:10: Shorter Rubio: America is great because we have poor people for the rich to exploit.

Raising the minimum wage works. #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/b1KkxLNUqk

— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) November 11, 2015

Rubio – “We need more welders, not philosophers.” Umm… Didn’t your party ship all the welding jobs overseas? #GOPDebate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) November 11, 2015

6:14: Kasich on balancing the budget. I recall that Clinton did that, and that Shrub shot that to hell. Lesson: If you are fiscally responsible don’t elect a Bush or a Republican.

Kasich has choppy hands.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) November 11, 2015

#GOPDebate: Reducing #deficit emerged as top Republican priority shortly after Obama took office pic.twitter.com/p659yrpsPB

— Alec Tyson (@alec_h_tyson) November 11, 2015

6:18: FAUX debate moderator doesn’t appear to understand “participation rate”.

6:20: Jeb Bush’s new platform: Repeal Everything Obama.

6:21: Fiorina uncomfortably wedges a anecdote in to a profound non-answer.

Unemployment is 5%. That's what Romney said he'd get to as a goal. The recovery is because WAGES ARE TOO LOW.

— Dante Atkins (@DanteAtkins) November 11, 2015

That first question on a $15 minimum wage was so riddled with lies it screwed up my streaming feed.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) November 11, 2015

Carly Fiorina Shares Heartbreaking Story About Father Of 3 Who Couldn’t Meet Sales Goals https://t.co/a5VgUxX4Kc pic.twitter.com/L0gCCf53y9

— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 11, 2015

Great thing about living in WA, if any of these clowns actually wins, this is a Death with Dignity state. #GOPDEbate https://t.co/xM0cMc464J

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Carly Fiorina is one of the more effortless liars I've heard

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) November 11, 2015

Paul: "I want a govt really, really small—so small you can barely see it." Oh. Then just use Paul as your ophthalmologist. Done! #GOPDebate

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Carly’s extensive business background has taught her that money is fungible.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) November 11, 2015

All these #GOPDebates on cable biz/news channels make me proud to be an American who doesn't subscribe to cable.

— #allgoldypanel (@GoldyHA) November 11, 2015

Ted Cruz has very bad ideas about monetary policy but, unlike many of these candidates, he has at least thought about it extensively.

— Josh Barro (@jbarro) November 11, 2015

This has been the most painful discussion of monetary policy since William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech in 1896.

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) November 11, 2015

Well, that was awful.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle (4th GOP Debate Edition)

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/10/15, 6:04 am

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of fantasy, whimsy, and war-mongering as Fox Business Network hosts the fourth Republican Primary Debate. Shock and awwwwww (and maybe some drinking games) will prevail at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week we will start with the debate at 6:00 pm (PST).

Note: We should have sound and video for the debate. But the bar and restaurant has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring stuff to stream the audio.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Redmond, and Bellingham chapters also meet. The Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Not just debate moderators, G.O.P. candidates cannot handle kids with strong language

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/7/15, 2:14 pm

Last week, Obama made a laughingstock of the Republican Candidates. He pointed out their words about how they would be so “tough” dealing with Putin, and then chided them for their insufferable whining over uncivil debate moderators.

Now they are whining about children expressing anger over Trump’s ugly racism in this ad:

The Donald doesn’t like it one bit.:

“I think it’s terrible, I think it’s just terrible,” the Republican presidential candidate said on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria Bartiromo.”

Young kids speaking that way “is a disgrace,” he added….

…a disgrace to The Donald because, typically, when little brown kids talk to him that way, he fires their parents.

Marco Rubio is also outraged,

“People are looking at it and say, these people are grotesque. I mean these are little children. What kind of parent allows their children to go on a video like that and use that kind of profanity and what kind of parents allow a kid to do that?”

Rubio, born to two non-U.S. Citizen immigrant parents, might qualify as a non-citizen “Anchor Baby” in Donald Trump’s world.

So…apparently, children using four letter words is more threatening than an opponent who would strip him of his citizenship.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 11/6/15, 11:48 pm

Congressional Hits and Misses: The essential John Boehner.

Stephen: Farewell whoever you were.

VSauce: Juvenoia.

Thom: Here’s what Democratic Socialism is:

Ending gun violence.

How to FOIA the NSA for data about you.

White House: West Wing Week.

Ryan Eyes:

  • Members weigh in on Ryan’s first week.
  • Pap: Teabaggers go after Paul Ryan.
  • WaPo: Who is Paul Ryan
  • Maddow: Why Ryan won’t pass 9/11 first responders’ bill.
  • Young Turks: Paul Ryan’s sellout to the banks.
  • Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan’s first act is to screw over the poor.

Maddow: The Teabagger scandal that won’t die.

David Pakman: Teabaggers are at a record low.

Trevor Noah: My first American Health Care experience.

Mental Floss: Why does daylight saving time vary by country.

Thom: Un-Koch my campus.

Redskins vs. Reformed Whores: Let’s get it on!

Was MSNBC too easy on the Koch brothers?

Ann Telnes: More proof that SCOTUS is behind the times.

Chris Cillizza: Why Joe not running matters.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

  • Obama smacks G.O.P. whimps for whining about CNBC moderators
  • Young Turks: Obama mocks the wingnut whiners.
  • Sam Seder: Obama mocks whiney GOP candidates.
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at Republican debate demands
  • Mark Fiore: The Real Republican Debate.
  • Trevor Noah: Republicans call for babyproofed debates
  • Sam Seder: Even FAUX News is laughing at the G.O.P. candidates.
  • Seth Meyers with Donny Deutsch: Trump vs. Hillary is the reality show we want to see.
  • Latino groups say Donald Trump’s racism has no place in the White House.
  • Maddow: Anti-Trump protests reach Saturday Night Live
  • Mexican Donald Trump hosts Mexican Saturday Night Live
  • Songify: The Donald sings and dances:

  • Donald responds with the Trump rap ad
  • Sam Seder: Trump dismisses Jeb! and talks of riding off into the sunset
  • Stephen: Trump and Jeb! books out.
  • Young Turks: New low for Bush as Jindal passes him in Iowa.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Jeb Can Fix It!
  • Ann Telnaes: Jeb Bush and the divine right of political families.
  • Young Turks: Jeb!’s friends are leaving him.
  • Young Turks: Christie and Huckabee get demoted to the kids table.
  • Matthew Filipowicz: Ted Cruz says climate change is not science. It’s religion.
  • Young Turks: Ted Cruz just cannot still whining about the CNBC debate.
  • “Holy Lunatic Asylum, Batman”: Ben Carson’s unbelievably NUTZ-O theory about the pyramids.
  • Sam Seder: Genius Ben Carson solves the pyramid mystery.
  • Ben Carson thinks the pyramids were built to store grain
  • Hey GOP candidates, no more hating.
  • Richard Fowler: Carson compares rape victims who want abortions to slave owners.
  • David Pakman: Carson and pyramid schemes
  • Farron Cousins: Dr. Malpractice says pyramids were for grain storage
  • Young Turks: Ben Carson’s pyramid scheme.
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson tells some classic archaeologist jokes
  • Matthew Filipowicz: Rand Paul compares tuition free college to heroin.
  • Trevor Noah: Iowa Republicans are afraid of The Daily Show

Anonymous KKK Hack.

Sam Seder: FAUX News infotainters have difficulty understanding jobs numbers.

Thom: Will ObamaCare survive in Kentucky?

Obama on Keystone XL.

Nancy Pelosi: “The Republican Committee to Attack Women’s Health”.

Seven mistakes in Bill-O-The-Clown’s book about Ronald Reagan.

Simone Sebastian: If you oppose Black Lives Matter, you would’ve abhorred Martin Luther King.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about famous composers.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard: Wealth of Congress:

Red State Update: RIP Fred Thompson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/3/15, 6:22 am

DLBottleHey…today is ELECTION DAY! If you haven’t done so already, fill out that ballot, drop it off at a nearby drop box, and then high-tail it to the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally for the 8:00pm ballot-drop watching party. And it isn’t just Washington with some important elections. Michigan, Kentucky, New Jersey and Virginia have some big races, and there are a bunch of congressional special elections happening.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

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Primary happenings

by Darryl — Monday, 11/2/15, 5:06 pm

I don’t do much pontification or statistical analysis of the Presidential primary polls. The thing is, primary processes are irregular and messy. Some states hold primary elections. Some states, caucuses. And some states hold both–you know, like Washington state in 2008.

Polls can sometimes reflect the subsequent outcome of state primaries, but in states with open primaries, cross-over votes can determine an outcome that polls may not capture. And the contests are not independent. There can be a social effect whereby the outcome of one primary or caucus might drastically alter a contest held days or weeks later.

On top of all that, the elections and caucuses don’t directly select the ultimate nominee. The McGovern-Fraser reforms that followed the 1968 conventions have made the process quite transparent, but it’s still messy. Parties and individual states have different ways of going from a primary or caucus result to a binding of delegates to the candidates.

Democrats use a largely proportional system, with some differences among states. Republicans use a proportional system for state contests before March 14th. Contests after March 14th can be winner-take-all or proportional or a mixture of both—the decision is made by the states. And then there is the issue of “unpledged delegates” (or superdelegates) that are employed by both parties. These are the wild cards that can affect (but, in practice, haven’t really affected) the selection of candidates at the national nominating convention. Unpledged delegates make up about 5% of the Republican delegates and 20% of Democratic delegates.

Like I say…it’s a messy process. Any attempts of using statistical analyses to ascertain the nominee is either absurdly simplified or absurdly herculean.

Still, this season brings us an incredibly interesting primary. So I may, on occasion, offer some thoughts–typically based on collections of polls, but without the formal analyses.

The Democratic primary is not the interesting one. I’ve seen pretty much every Democratic state primary poll and everything points to an easy win by Sec. Hillary Clinton. Sen. Bernie Sanders is providing a great service to his party by running against Hillary, but he ain’t gonna be the person nominated. Well…not unless Hillary’s emails reveal something startling (“Back off, Rahm, or I’ll do the same thing to you that I did to Foster….”). And even then, only if there’s an actual indictment.

Never mind what you see in (way overly-polled) New Hampshire. In the 100 or so national primary polls taken to date, Clinton has only twice dipped below a double digit lead. Currently she is up from 15% to 30% with a strengthening trend for six weeks. Sanders has stayed about the same over the same period.

The Republican primary is the really “interesting” one. Currently, “outsider” candidates have been leading with a pack of insiders, who are languishing in the mid-single digits. Until mid-July, there wasn’t a lot of differentiation, but Gov. Jeb! Bush was the national front-runner, with Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Scott Walker nipping at his heels. Real estate mogul turned reality TV star, Donald Trump, “broke out” of the pack in mid-July and has pretty much remained on top. Notable surgeon, Dr. Ben Carson, “broke out” a month later and has held a solid second place lead since, typically within single digits of Trump. Former CEO Carly Fiorina spent the last week of September in third with over 10% support, but she has subsequently fallen to the middle of the single-digit pack.

These days, when I start talking among friends about the general election, people want to know my predictions for the GOP nomination. So, allow me to speculate a bit here. First, I maintain that Carson has virtually no chance of becoming the Republican nominee. His inexperience as a politician and campaigner and his relative ignorance of policy and politics will do him in. And I believe sooner rather than later.

Trump is a different story. He has much more political experience than Carson, though still an amateur. But he has the resources to make up for his inexperience. And he is adept at using his resources to undertake big “projects.” Furthermore his real-world experience is highly conducive to undertaking a large, complicated project like a campaign.

What Trump lacks is verbal discipline and a “presidential temperament.” This caps his support ceiling. He may also lack the discipline necessary to learn the policy details that will eventually become important in the nomination process.

Jeb! has hit rock bottom following a mediocre debate performance that launched a “disaster” feeding frenzy among the media. It’s overblown and likely wrong. Give it a month or two, and Jeb may well bounce back. He, among the GOP candidates, has the strongest “foundation”, in a broad sense, for a presidential bid. On the other hand, maybe Barbara is right: We’ve had enough Bushes

Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz supposedly had a great 3rd debate. Maybe…if by “great” you mean they each made a couple of brief non-policy statements that received applause. Really, each candidate’s “great” performance is little more than a media snowballing meme. I mean, if they didn’t have Jeb to kick around, the meme might be about how Cruz was overly whiny or how Rubio lacked spontaneity and was merely peppering us with overly rehearsed lines. Media reaction is a fickle thing.

There haven’t been many polls released since the 3rd G.O.P. debate, but I don’t think that matters much. From the collection of recent polls (before and after the debate), we can divine something of a trend. Bush is down to 4 or 5 percent buried in a cluster with Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Fiorina, and Gov. John Kasich. Cruz seems to have ticked up slightly, but is still below 10% (except, of course, in Texas where he is at 14%). Rubio, on the other hand, has seen a big jump into the land of double-digits. This is true in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and in a national poll taken after the debate.

For awhile, I’ve given Bush the greatest probability of taking the nomination. Now, I sort of feel like there is a two way tie between Bush and Rubio, perhaps a 30% probability each. Then I would give Trump a 20% probability, Cruz a 15% probability and anyone else a 5% probability. In other words, I offer a subjective probability of 75% that a person with Hispanic children will be the G.O.P. nominee. And a 99.9% probability that a woman will be the Democratic nominee. In terms of diversity, it’s likely to be a historic presidency.

We’ve come a long way from the last time a Clinton ran in the general election for President, when a pair of Southern white male Baptists ran against a Midwestern white male Methodist with a white male West-coast Presbyterian running mate. Progress, baby!

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/31/15, 12:26 am

Colbert: Meat ‘n smug vegetarians.

Thom: Are we seeing the rebirth of the KKK?

Mental Floss: Why is there a joker in a deck of cards.

The ten richest members of Congress.

The 2016 GOP Clown Show:

  • The third-tier GOP debate
  • Red State Update: Debate debriefing
  • Thom: The myths and lies in the GOP Debate
  • Stephen: The Republican Debate:

  • Young Turks: After rough CNBC debate, Republicans take their ball and go home.
  • Liberal Viewer: Debate Clips
  • Maddow: Republicans plot mutiny over debate.
  • Young Turks: GOP Candidate’s tax plans would cost trillions
  • David Pakman: Republican debate dominated by ridiculous policy ideas
  • The GOP debate in 3 minutes.
  • Young Turks: Worst line of the debate
  • Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz brags about destroying GOP
  • Sam Seder: Cruz channels McCarthy and Gingrich during the debate
  • Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz whine to conservative moderators about liberal media bias.
  • Young Turks: Rand Paul’s fake budget filibuster.
  • Is Carson out-Trumping Trump?
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Carson flip-flopped on guns and abortion.
  • Ann Telnaes: Ben Carson warms up for the debate.
  • Ben Carson’s Third campaign ad.
  • Maddow: Why is Carson outdoing Trump in Iowa polls?
  • PsychoSuperMom: Ben Carson, The Soporific Psycho
  • Matthew Filipowicz: Yes, Ben Carson, you are a homophobe!

  • Farron Cousins: Ben Carson’s history of homophobia.
  • Young Turks: Trump and Carson demand shorter debates, still whine about everything.
  • Stephen: Never bring a Trump to a Carson fight.
  • Mexicans on The Donald.
  • David Pakman: Donald’s thinking on why women want to wear Burkas
  • Trump to host SNL: Tell ’em NO.
  • Stephen tells the story of Trumps tough journey from rich to richer.
  • Young Turks: Fact-checking Trump, Carson, Jindal
  • Marco Rubio: Mansplainer.
  • Sam Seder: Marco Rubio, essentially, admits there’s no point in him being a Senator.
  • Young Turks: Fact-checking Carly.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Jeb! nails it with, “Blah, Blah, Blah”
  • Jeb fundraiser is a Who’s Who of the Bush Administration
  • Ann Telnaes: Donors just aren’t that into Jeb anymore.
  • The French respond to Bush’s “3-day work week” slur
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at Jeb Bush’s campaign:

White House: West Wing Week.

The GOP is wrong for us.

John Oliver: I’m not a journalist.

Chris Hayes: Romney defends ObamaCare.

The poorest members of Congress.

Hillary and Friends:

  • Bad lip reading the first Democratic debate.
  • Stephen does Hillary.
  • Stephen interviews Hillary.
  • David Pakman: After Hillary destroyed the Benghaaaazzzziiiiiiiii!!!!1!11! panel, interviews will be private.
  • Farron Cousins: By pushing Benghazi lies, conservative media accidentally boosts Hillary
  • Stephen: Hillary’s very good week.

Farron Cousins: Koch brothers spend millions to eliminate solar power.

Benghazi: a reaction:

Sen. Lehey joins the 15,000 vote club.

Thom: ObamaCare back in court again?!?.

Mental Floss: 22 Horror Movie Facts.

Thom: Public goods & health care.

Maddow: Movie resurrects George W. Bush National Guard service scandal.

All Hallows’ Eve Politics:

  • Bernie Sanders Halloween costume ideas.
  • A Halloween warning.
  • Professor Mike Yard explains blackface

Stephen: The Hungry for Power Games.

Seth Meyers: Jokes of the week.

Thom: NOAA defies the GOP McCarthy witchhunt.

Farron Cousins: Did Sarah Palin destroy the Republican Party?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about pirates .

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

Ryan Eyes:

  • Farron Cousins: With new Speaker, what does the next 12 months look like?
  • Seth Meyers: A closer look at Paul Ryan.
  • David Pakman: Extremist Paul Ryan is Speaker of the House.
  • Mark Fiore: Paul Ryan Shrugs.
  • Young Turks: The new Speaker of the House.

Matthew Filipowicz: Pro-police group thrilled that FAUX News compared #BlackLivesMatter to the Nazis.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Luctiferously Ugly!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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