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The Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Vice News: How defunding the police is working out in Seattle

Trevor: President Obama—Inspiring future leaders & “A Promised Land”

Really American: Traitor Ron Johnson tries to accuse Democrats of his own crimes

Present-elect Joe Biden and VP-elect Kamala Harris and Other Election Stuff:

Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Satan’s busy year of sneaky tricks

Trevor: President Obama on police reform & the impact of slogans

BuzzFeed: Why the Electoral College is useless in 8 minutes

The Dotard Трамп and His Fellow Delusional Imbeciles:

Trevor: Obama on roasting people

WaPo: The biggest Pinocchios of 2020

Mother Jones: Here’s what $1.7 trillion in student debt looks like

Roy Wood, Jr.: North Pole diversification

ТрампPlague:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Now This: Your bank could be funding private prisons

Desi Lydic spends Christmas with her FAUZ News fam

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bruce W. Nelson: “Turtle in the toilet”, a Mitch McConnell song

The Daily Show: FAUX News—Staten Island protests vs. BLM protests

Robert Reich: Who will hold the power in the Biden administration?

Conan invites political song parodist Tip Rivers to perform.

President-elect Joe Biden, VP-elect Kamala Harris and Other Electiony Things:

The Daily Show: How to pretend 2020 never happened

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Vice News: ICE is deporting multiple witnesses in gynecologic surgery scandal

The Deplorable Dotard Трамп and His Cohort of Criminals:

The Daily Show: 2020 in review—The year in protests

Amer4D: This is our House

The Late Show: Immigrants praise Kelly Loeffler’s corrupt American dream.

  • Missy Modell: Mitchie baby (Santa baby parody):

    • Trevor: Facebook sued by the Federal Trade Commission and 46 U.S. states

    Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

    The Week in ТрампPlague:

    Now This: Greta Thunberg on understanding the climate crisis gravity

    Samantha Bee: America’s New Year resolution—Making housing a human right, part 1

    Samantha Bee: America’s New Year resolution—Making housing a human right, part 2

    Trevor: Rachel Maddow—“Bag Man” & decoding right-wing media

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Stephen: President Obama reflects on the drone program and “the illusion that it is not war”

    New York Times: Why Is the U.S. Allowing Migrant Children to Die of the Flu?

    Sky New: Is 2020 the hottest year on record?

    President Elect Joe Biden and VP Elect Kamala Harris and Other Election Stuff:

    The Daily Show: Never forget—White people who called the cops on Black people for no reason

    Stephen: President Obama’s mother-in-law helped keep the first family down to earth

    The Dotard Трамп and His Delusional Simpleton Friends, Family, and Lawyers:

    Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

    Stephen: More time with Barack Obama

    The New York Times: How Prince wrote a political anthem that’s still relevant today

    The Week in ТрампPlague:

    The Daily Show: What is the monetary cost of climate change?

    Stephen: President Obama answers “questions we’re pretty sure Barack Obama has never been asked before”

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Seth Meyers: John Oliver blew up 2020.

    The Daily Show: Why are Americans going to the dentist in Mexico?

    Vice News: The military’s #MeToo moment

    President Elect Joe Biden, VP Elect Kamala Harris and Other Election Things

    Trevor: How QAnon is taking over the GOP

    Stephen: Stephen challenges President Barack Obama to a game of “wastepaper basketball”

    The Dotard Трамп and Other Delusional Conspiracy Theorists:

    Stephen: When Barack Obama first asked Michelle about running for president, she said no

    Bruce W. Nelson: Heroes of the Senate

    ТрампPlague:

    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

    Trevor: So you think you know what militias are?

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Really? Thanksgiving? In 2020?!?

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    Happy Thanksgiving y’all!

    Here are some links for frittering away your time this Thanksgiving day….

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

    Robert Reich: Georgia runoffs—How you can help flip the Senate

    Vox: The 126-year fight to change Mississippi’s Confederate flag

    President Elect Joe Biden and VP Elect Kamala Harris:

    Stephen: Better know a runoff—Georgia!

    Jimmy Kimmel does Barack Obama

    The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Bad Liars, and SAD Fascists:

    Wired: Is the YouTube algorithm controlling us? I try to find out

    Bruce W. Nelson: Welcome back America!

    John Oliver tells 2020 to “get fucked!”

    The Week in ТрампPlague:

    Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

    Robert Reich: The real story behind skyrocketing student debt

    Jonathan Mann: Socialism or barbarism

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    James Corden: Sen. Cory Booker’s wingman is President-elect Biden

    The Late Show: Mitch McConnell learns a lesson about lying

    Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

    We have President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris:

    Keith Olbermann: Pompeo was joking? Wasn’t joking? I don’t care. Cut off red state funding.

    Our Cartoon President: “America, my fucked home” & new closing song

    Matt Buechele: Making liberals mad

    The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Grifters, and Reality Deniers:

    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

    The Daily Show: The GOP needs your vote in the lawful, fraudulent, official, rigged Georgia runoff elections

    Superspreading the ТрампPlague:

    Vox: Weed was the real winner of the 2020 election

    Conan: Miss political texts? Sign up for Andy’s list

    Roy Zimmerman: Thanks for the support

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Stephen answers your kids’ most pressing election questions!

    Jonathan Mann: The bad time line

    Stephen with Larry Wilmore: Inspired by the political actions of young people

    Election 2020:

    The Daily Show: The most scandal-plagued Presidency ever—A look back

    Bill Maher: Tristan Harris on social media’s influence on U.S. elections

    Roll Calls: Election week Congressional hits and misses of the week

    The Dotard Трамп and Other Whiners, Losers, Thieves, and Liars:

    Taína Asili: Here we come.

    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

    ТрампPlague Superspreading:

    Lauren Mayer: : It could be worse!

    Bruce W. Nelson: The Radical Right.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Election Night Open Thread

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    It has been awhile since I’ve done one of these. Leave your thoughts on the election in the comment thread!

    5:07: Four years ago on election night my house lost power for a few hours. Today, a bit after 2pm, I lost power for a few hours. I hope that isn’t a bad omen!

    5:24: Ahhhh…finally got to pour myself a beer!

    5:31: MSNBC: “Breaking news…Polls close in Arkansas…here’s what we can tell you…It is too close to call” Not really “breaking” news as much as prematurely ejected news.

    5:41: Texas is interesting, but way too early. Florida isn’t looking good, but way too early to tell.

    6:30: The first Senate seat to flip…Hickenlooper in Colorado.

    Election 2020: Election day Senate analysis

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    Senate Democrats*
    Senate Republicans
    greater than 99.9% probability
    less than 0.1% probability
    Mean of 53 seats
    Mean of 47 seats

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.

    After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.

    Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

    This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

    [Read more…]

    Election 2020: Biden leads on election day

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    Biden
    Trump
    > 99.9% probability of winning
    < 0.1% probability of winning
    Mean of 360 electoral votes
    Mean of 178 electoral votes


    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

    Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

    Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

    The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

    Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

    [Read more…]

    Election Eve 2020: It Is What It Is and Biden Leads

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    Biden
    Trump
    > 99.9% probability of winning
    < 0.1% probability of winning
    Mean of 362 electoral votes
    Mean of 176 electoral votes


    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.

    Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….

    What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.

    We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.

    North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.

    There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).

    The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).

    For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

    Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

    [Read more…]

    Election Eve 2020: The Senate Shifts Slightly to the Right

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    Senate Democrats*
    Senate Republicans
    greater than 99.9% probability
    less than 0.1% probability
    Mean of 53 seats
    Mean of 47 seats

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    The previous analysis of the Senate races four days ago showed control of the Senate likely to go to the Democrats, with an expected 54 seats. Since then there have been many new polls released. As a result, the race has tightened slightly.

    Now, the Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats have a Senate majority 99,773 times and produces 227 ties. Republicans never control the Senate. That is an almost imperceptible “slide” for the Democrats from the previous analysis. But the mean number of seats has dropped by one from 54.2 to 53.2. Part of the reason is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from 1 month to 3 weeks, as there is enough polling to justify the narrower window. And doing so increases the chances of catching late trends in the race.

    There were a few big changes. In Alaska, where Democrat Al Gross is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newest polls take the race from a tie to Sullivan in the lead with a 78% chance of winning an election today. For Georgia’s seat 1 race where Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Perdue, the last 6 of 14 polls have put Ossoff in the lead. Perdue had a 65% chance of winning four days ago, but now Ossoff has the edge with an 87% chance of winning. In Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield’s once strong lead has slipped. Four days ago she had a 76 percent probability of winning. Now she has a 61% chance. The open seat in Kansas has Democrat Barbara Bollier head-to-head with Republican Roger Marshall. Boiller had a slight lead that translates to a 63% probability of winning. But the new polling has Marshell ahead with a 91% chance of winning.

    The Race in Maine has tightened as well. Democrat Sara Gideon has been leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, Gideon still leads in all three current polls, but one poll is nearly a tie. Gideon’s lead has slipped from 97% a few days ago to 87% probability today. In another challenge to an incumbent, Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for her Mississippi seat. The polling tightened up recently, and Hyde-Smith had a 56% chance of winning a few days ago. But a new Civiqs poll has Hyde-Smith up by +8%, boosting the Senator’s chances to a 90% probability of winning. Finally, in the South Carolina race, Democrat Jamie Harrison’s challenge of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has seen a shift in Graham’s chances of prevailing from 56% to an 88% chance.

    Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

    [Read more…]

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Samantha Bee: Now that’s what I call a fucking atrocity—family separation

    Bruce W. Nelson: What about Mitch?

    John Oliver: Asylum

    Bruce W. Nelson: Mitch McConnell’s swamp-grown, un-organic, rather toxic garden mulch

    Now This: How Texas Republicans are making it harder to vote

    Biden—Harris 2020:

    Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Susan Collins dodges everyone’s questions

    Desi Lydic: Remembering RBG—A nation ugly cries

    Amber Ruffin: The untold history of the Blue Feathers

    Now This: Damon Young shows how hard it is for Black people to vote in America.

    Vice News: Voter suppression—It’s the American way

    The Dotard Трамп and Other Snowflakey Misogynists and Racists:

    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

    Really American: Everyone hates Lindsey

    Stephen: The GOP’s voter suppression efforts are inherently evil.

    Robert Reich: The stock market IS NOT The Economy!

    Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

    Superspreadin’ the ТрампPlague:

    Bruce W. Nelson: Poor li’l Lindsey

    Late Show: Jenny Hagel on Pope Francis and same-sex civil unions

    Vox: Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”

    Trevor: Amy Coney Barrett is vonfirmed & Democrats vow revenge

    Meidas Touch: Traffic stop

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Election 2020: With days remaining Biden leads Trump

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    Biden
    Trump
    > 99.9% probability of winning
    < 0.1% probability of winning
    Mean of 373 electoral votes
    Mean of 165 electoral votes


    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

    In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

    Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

    The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

    Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
    [Read more…]

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