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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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James Corden: Sen. Cory Booker’s wingman is President-elect Biden

The Late Show: Mitch McConnell learns a lesson about lying

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

We have President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris:

Keith Olbermann: Pompeo was joking? Wasn’t joking? I don’t care. Cut off red state funding.

Our Cartoon President: “America, my fucked home” & new closing song

Matt Buechele: Making liberals mad

The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Grifters, and Reality Deniers:

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

The Daily Show: The GOP needs your vote in the lawful, fraudulent, official, rigged Georgia runoff elections

Superspreading the ТрампPlague:

Vox: Weed was the real winner of the 2020 election

Conan: Miss political texts? Sign up for Andy’s list

Roy Zimmerman: Thanks for the support

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen answers your kids’ most pressing election questions!

Jonathan Mann: The bad time line

Stephen with Larry Wilmore: Inspired by the political actions of young people

Election 2020:

The Daily Show: The most scandal-plagued Presidency ever—A look back

Bill Maher: Tristan Harris on social media’s influence on U.S. elections

Roll Calls: Election week Congressional hits and misses of the week

The Dotard Трамп and Other Whiners, Losers, Thieves, and Liars:

Taína Asili: Here we come.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

ТрампPlague Superspreading:

Lauren Mayer: : It could be worse!

Bruce W. Nelson: The Radical Right.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election Night Open Thread

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It has been awhile since I’ve done one of these. Leave your thoughts on the election in the comment thread!

5:07: Four years ago on election night my house lost power for a few hours. Today, a bit after 2pm, I lost power for a few hours. I hope that isn’t a bad omen!

5:24: Ahhhh…finally got to pour myself a beer!

5:31: MSNBC: “Breaking news…Polls close in Arkansas…here’s what we can tell you…It is too close to call” Not really “breaking” news as much as prematurely ejected news.

5:41: Texas is interesting, but way too early. Florida isn’t looking good, but way too early to tell.

6:30: The first Senate seat to flip…Hickenlooper in Colorado.

Election 2020: Election day Senate analysis

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats
Mean of 47 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

[Read more…]

Election 2020: Biden leads on election day

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes
Mean of 178 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Election Eve 2020: It Is What It Is and Biden Leads

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes
Mean of 176 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….

What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.

We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.

North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.

There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Election Eve 2020: The Senate Shifts Slightly to the Right

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats
Mean of 47 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis of the Senate races four days ago showed control of the Senate likely to go to the Democrats, with an expected 54 seats. Since then there have been many new polls released. As a result, the race has tightened slightly.

Now, the Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats have a Senate majority 99,773 times and produces 227 ties. Republicans never control the Senate. That is an almost imperceptible “slide” for the Democrats from the previous analysis. But the mean number of seats has dropped by one from 54.2 to 53.2. Part of the reason is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from 1 month to 3 weeks, as there is enough polling to justify the narrower window. And doing so increases the chances of catching late trends in the race.

There were a few big changes. In Alaska, where Democrat Al Gross is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newest polls take the race from a tie to Sullivan in the lead with a 78% chance of winning an election today. For Georgia’s seat 1 race where Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Perdue, the last 6 of 14 polls have put Ossoff in the lead. Perdue had a 65% chance of winning four days ago, but now Ossoff has the edge with an 87% chance of winning. In Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield’s once strong lead has slipped. Four days ago she had a 76 percent probability of winning. Now she has a 61% chance. The open seat in Kansas has Democrat Barbara Bollier head-to-head with Republican Roger Marshall. Boiller had a slight lead that translates to a 63% probability of winning. But the new polling has Marshell ahead with a 91% chance of winning.

The Race in Maine has tightened as well. Democrat Sara Gideon has been leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, Gideon still leads in all three current polls, but one poll is nearly a tie. Gideon’s lead has slipped from 97% a few days ago to 87% probability today. In another challenge to an incumbent, Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for her Mississippi seat. The polling tightened up recently, and Hyde-Smith had a 56% chance of winning a few days ago. But a new Civiqs poll has Hyde-Smith up by +8%, boosting the Senator’s chances to a 90% probability of winning. Finally, in the South Carolina race, Democrat Jamie Harrison’s challenge of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has seen a shift in Graham’s chances of prevailing from 56% to an 88% chance.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Samantha Bee: Now that’s what I call a fucking atrocity—family separation

Bruce W. Nelson: What about Mitch?

John Oliver: Asylum

Bruce W. Nelson: Mitch McConnell’s swamp-grown, un-organic, rather toxic garden mulch

Now This: How Texas Republicans are making it harder to vote

Biden—Harris 2020:

Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Susan Collins dodges everyone’s questions

Desi Lydic: Remembering RBG—A nation ugly cries

Amber Ruffin: The untold history of the Blue Feathers

Now This: Damon Young shows how hard it is for Black people to vote in America.

Vice News: Voter suppression—It’s the American way

The Dotard Трамп and Other Snowflakey Misogynists and Racists:

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Really American: Everyone hates Lindsey

Stephen: The GOP’s voter suppression efforts are inherently evil.

Robert Reich: The stock market IS NOT The Economy!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Superspreadin’ the ТрампPlague:

Bruce W. Nelson: Poor li’l Lindsey

Late Show: Jenny Hagel on Pope Francis and same-sex civil unions

Vox: Why LGBTQ rights hinge on the definition of “sex”

Trevor: Amy Coney Barrett is vonfirmed & Democrats vow revenge

Meidas Touch: Traffic stop

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: With days remaining Biden leads Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes
Mean of 165 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
[Read more…]

Election 2020: Senate update

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats
Mean of 46 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.

This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%

Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.

  • Alaska—One new PPP poll (for a total of 4) favors Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. His chances bump up from a 52% probability to a 65% probability of defeating Democrat Al Gross
  • Georgia seat 1—We have six new polls and lose four old polls for a total of 17 polls. The result is that the race changes from a 60% probability of Republican Sen. David Perdue winning to a 61% probability of Democrat Jon Ossoff winning
  • Iowa—The race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield trying to unseat Republican Sen. Joni Ernst sees two new polls and two old polls drop out. The net result, with 12 polls, is that Greenfield goes from a 76% to a 87% probability of winning right now
  • Kansas—This is one of the big surprises for 2020 where Democrat Barbara Bollier may well defeat Republican Roger Marshall for this open seat. One poll aged out, leaving three poll that moves Bollier from a 63% to an 81% probability of winning. One caveat…the newest of the three current poll has Marshall in the lead.
  • Maine—The race with Democrat Sara Gideon trying to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has generally favored Gideon. With two new polls and one old poll dropping out, the four current polls all have Gideon in the lead, but her chances drop from 97% to 88%. The primarily reason is a new SurveyUSA poll that has Gideon leading by a mere 0.4%!
  • Mississippi—This race has Democrat Mike Espy trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Five days ago, the only poll was from last August and had Hyde-Smith up by +1. A new Civiqs poll has her up by +8, upping her chances from 56% to 90%.
  • Montana—This contest between Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines is another surprisingly close race. Keep an eye on it. We have two new polls weighing in for a total of eight polls. Four polls have Daines leading, three polls have Bullock leading (by +1), and there is one tie. Daines chances drop from 80% to 71% of winning an election held now.
  • South Carolina—This is the race everyone is watching to see if Democrat Jamie Harrison will dethrone Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham was barely hanging on with a 57% probability of winning, but with three new polls added in and two dropping out (for a total of 6 polls), Graham’s chances have risen to 87% probability. Three of the polls favor Graham, two favor favor Harrison and there is one tie.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 45
Strong Democrat 6 51
Leans Democrat 2 2 53
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 53
Weak Republican 3 3 3 47
Leans Republican 2 2 44
Strong Republican 4 42
Safe Republican 38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 1 1030 43.8 56.2 0.3 99.7
AK 4 2214 49.9 50.1 47.6 52.4
AZ 24 15073 53.6 46.4 100.0 0.0
AR 2 1107 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
CO 8 5741 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
DE 1 712 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
GA 15 11127 49.7 50.3 35.1 64.9
GA 5 3619 53.8 46.2 99.9 0.1
ID 1& 487 34.1 65.9 0.0 100.0
IL 1& 418 56.7 43.3 97.3 2.7
IA 12 7943 50.6 49.4 75.5 24.5
KS 4 4774 50.3 49.7 62.7 37.3
KY 2 1157 44.8 55.2 0.8 99.2
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
ME 3 1597 53.4 46.6 97.2 2.8
MA 1& 817 55.6 44.4 98.8 1.2
MI 24 19375 52.7 47.3 100.0 0.0
MN 4 3038 53.4 46.6 99.6 0.4
MS 1& 486 49.4 50.6 43.7 56.3
MT 6 3893 49.1 50.9 20.1 79.9
NE 1 395 27.3 72.7 0.0 100.0
NH 6 4551 57.1 42.9 100.0 0.0
NJ 1 664 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
NM 1 815 55.5 44.5 98.4 1.6
NC 23 16814 52.8 47.2 100.0 0.0
OK 1 5102 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
OR 1 849 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
RI 0 0 (100) (0)
SC 5 3960 49.8 50.2 43.2 56.8
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
TN 1 551 39.0 61.0 0.0 100.0
TX 9 10209 47.2 52.8 0.0 100.0
VA 3 2626 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
WV 1 386 38.3 61.7 0.1 99.9
WY 0 0 (0) (100)

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Election 2020: Biden with a stable lead

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes
Mean of 176 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.

The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.

This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:

Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):

Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Election 2020: What’s going to happen in the Senate?

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability
less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats
Mean of 46 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.

How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.

Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.

In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.

The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 45
Strong Democrat 6 51
Leans Democrat 2 2 53
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 53
Weak Republican 3 3 3 47
Leans Republican 2 2 44
Strong Republican 4 42
Safe Republican 38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 1 1030 43.8 56.2 0.3 99.7
AK 4 2214 49.9 50.1 47.6 52.4
AZ 24 15073 53.6 46.4 100.0 0.0
AR 2 1107 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
CO 8 5741 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
DE 1 712 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
GA 15 11127 49.7 50.3 35.1 64.9
GA 5 3619 53.8 46.2 99.9 0.1
ID 1& 487 34.1 65.9 0.0 100.0
IL 1& 418 56.7 43.3 97.3 2.7
IA 12 7943 50.6 49.4 75.5 24.5
KS 4 4774 50.3 49.7 62.7 37.3
KY 2 1157 44.8 55.2 0.8 99.2
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
ME 3 1597 53.4 46.6 97.2 2.8
MA 1& 817 55.6 44.4 98.8 1.2
MI 24 19375 52.7 47.3 100.0 0.0
MN 4 3038 53.4 46.6 99.6 0.4
MS 1& 486 49.4 50.6 43.7 56.3
MT 6 3893 49.1 50.9 20.1 79.9
NE 1 395 27.3 72.7 0.0 100.0
NH 6 4551 57.1 42.9 100.0 0.0
NJ 1 664 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
NM 1 815 55.5 44.5 98.4 1.6
NC 23 16814 52.8 47.2 100.0 0.0
OK 1 5102 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
OR 1 849 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
RI 0 0 (100) (0)
SC 5 3960 49.8 50.2 43.2 56.8
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
TN 1 551 39.0 61.0 0.0 100.0
TX 9 10209 47.2 52.8 0.0 100.0
VA 3 2626 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
WV 1 386 38.3 61.7 0.1 99.9
WY 0 0 (0) (100)

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Election 2020: Biden’s lead persists

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes
Mean of 174 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:

Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition

True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics

Biden—Harris 2020:

Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”

Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?

Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it

The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:

Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct

Seth Meyers: Back in my day….

Vox: Why American public transit is so bad

Superspreading ТрампPlague:

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Biden maintains a solid lead…still

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes
Mean of 177 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

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