The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders
LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever
John Oliver: Museums and antiquities
WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward
Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons
Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power
Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?
Трамп and His Felonious Fans:
Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown
Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.
WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion
Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG
The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.
The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.
With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.
Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 47 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 3 | 50 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Leans Republican | 5 | 5 | 50 | |
| Strong Republican | 10 | 45 | ||
| Safe Republican | 35 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 9 | 6018 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 3 | 2667 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 2 | 2435 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 6 | 3396 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| GA | 8 | 7128 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 805 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 1 | 456 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 6.9 | 93.1 | |
| KS | 1 | 784 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1560 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 5 | 3721 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 15.6 | 84.4 | |
| NH | 7 | 5381 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 2 | 1454 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3603 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 24.3 | 75.7 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 5 | 3698 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 73.1 | |
| OK | 2 | 814 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| OK | 1 | 430 | 39.5 | 60.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| OR | 2 | 1507 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 9 | 6780 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.7 | 95.3 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| WA | 5 | 3361 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WI | 8 | 5709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 18.4 | 81.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal
Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases
Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton
Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries
Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts
Lewis Black: 100 fucks given
Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:
Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts
Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!
Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?
Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes
The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is meeting this evening for some discussion of politics over drinks. Join us if you wish.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Stephen: A fix for the chronic underrepresentation of Hispanics and Latinos on television
VICE News: Authors of banned books speak out
WaPo: How the NFL blocks Black coaches
LegalEagle: Don’t record your crimes!
NowThis: Black Women’s Equal Pay Day 2022—How to close the wealth gap
The Dotard Трамп:
The New Yorker: One woman’s mission to feed Harlem
Robert Reich: The truth behind “self-made” billionaires
Liberal Redneck: Stacey Abrams, heartbeats, and Georgia
Alicia Menendez: President Biden seeks to restore trust in American Democracy
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Election analyses are back! Today’s topic: Who will control the U.S. Senate after the mid-term elections?
We can answer this question by aggregating polling data that has been publicly released over the past year or so. The FAQ covers the methods but, in short, I am using polling data along with Monte Carlo simulation methods to assess probabilistic winners for each state and an overall probability of who will control the Senate.
Using voter preferences found in the past month of polls (whenever possible), 100,000 elections were simulated in each state. The result: Democrats had a Senate majority 82,684 times and there were 15,449 50-50 ties (these go to the Democrats, as VP Kamala Harris breaks Senate ties). Republicans controlled the Senate only 1867 times.
The results: If the election was held now, Democrats would have a 98.1% probability of controlling the Senate.
I’ll highlight just a few races.
Nevada is looking more and more like a Republican pick-up. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, has been losing to Republican Adam Laxalt in the last 4 polls. These suggest she would only have a 17.3% probability of winning right now. This is a recent trend, as Cortez Masto has lead in most of the earlier polling this year.
Ohio: In this Republican-held open seat, Democrat Tim Ryan is running against Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan has the polling advantage, but Vance has lead in the last three of six polls taken this month. Control of the Senate may turn on whether Ryan gets his mojo back.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians know a carpetbagger when they see one, and they look determined to send Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) back to New Jersey. By leading in every poll this year, John Fetterman (D) has amassed a convincing lead in the race.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) just might lose his seat to Mandela Barnes (D). Barnes has lead in most polls this year. The race, based only on the last month of polling, is a tie. This race may be the one that control of the Senate hinges on.
Back to the topic of control of the Senate, here is the distribution of seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats.* There is about a 40% chance of Democrats having at least 52 seats, the magic number that gives some immunity to Sinema—Manchin Dyspepsia.
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 43 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 49 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 1 | 1 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Ties | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 49 |
| Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
| Strong Republican | 8 | 46 | ||
| Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Dem | Rep | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Dem | Rep | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 8 | 5210 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 2 | 1448 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1 | 1853 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 7 | 3775 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| GA | 10 | 8481 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 91.1 | 8.9 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 476 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 7.0 | 93.0 | |
| KS | 2 | 1133 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1473 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 4 | 3069 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.3 | 82.7 | |
| NH | 3 | 2025 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 1 | 858 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3899 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 19.8 | 80.2 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 6 | 4276 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 60.8 | 39.2 | |
| OK | 2 | 818 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 459 | 32.9 | 67.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| PA | 7 | 5181 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| SC | 1 | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.6 | 95.4 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.4 | 5.6 | |
| WA | 3 | 1929 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.8 | 1.2 | |
| WI | 5 | 3815 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 51.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Note: This IS NOT an open thread. The comment section for this post is for discussion of things like polls, elections, control of the Senate, etc. Any poo-flinging is welcome at a nearby Open Thread. Thank you!
Tonight! The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is getting together for an evening of politics, drinks and just hanging out. Stop by and join us if you wish.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Stephen: “The rules were fairly clear” in Nina Totenberg’s friendship with Justice Ginsburg
John Oliver: Law & Order
LegalEagle: Legal in the US, but not…
Robert Reich: How billionaires got so powerful
The Dotard Трамп, MAGA Republicans, and Other Flavors of Traitors, Liars, and Grifters:
The Late Show: ♫ Guess Who Saved The Trains? Joe Biden ♬
NY Times: OB-GYNs confront legal impact of abortion bans
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Are you passionate about politics? Let’s talk about it. How about tonight? Stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and get your fix of politics over a drink.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Now This: Is Congress ready for Gen Z?
Alex Wagner: In Obama portrait unveiling, an important reminder of Democratic transitions of power
Trevor with Labor Sec. Marty Walsh: The future of work in America
WaPo: Obama’s portrait unveiling in 2 minutes
This Week In The Трамп Crime Syndicate and Cult:
Bloomberg Law: Clarence Thomas and oral arguments—Taciturn to talkative
Mark Fiore: Exceptions to American exceptionalism
Robert Reich: A tribute to the teacher who changed my life
Now This: Obama cracks jokes at the White House
Trevor Noah (throwback): How gerrymandering invalidates many Americans’ votes
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Tuesday is here, and that means the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of politics and good cheer over drinks. You are invited to stop by.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Chris Hayes: Democrat Peltola defeats Palin in special Alaska House race
Bloomberg Law: Union busting—What employers can and cannot legally do
Alex Wagner: Alaska’s Rep.-Elect Peltola heads to Congress with mandate for compromise
Трамп and His Treason Weasels:
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Alex Wagner: Energized women voters send GOP candidates scrambling to conceal unpopular abortion views
Carla Ulbrich: ♫ Katie Porter’s Whiteboard (remix) ♬
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Do you have any plans for Tuesday evening? No? Well, then, stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally for some politics and good cheer over a drink. You’ll be glad you did!
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!