It is a special pre-Thanksgiving edition of Drinking Liberally for the Seattle chapter tonight. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. A few of us will show up earlier than that for dinner.

As you might imagine…we’ll be talking us some turkey….

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 341 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

When did liberals become such prudes? Isn’t it odd that Seattle, unquestionably a liberal city, had an 18 year moratorium on strip clubs that was only recently lifted? And that lap dance proximity became a ballot measure just a few years ago?

Now it seems some of Seattle’s priggishness has sloughed off on Bellevue:

The sign for Knotty Bodies Espresso went up last Thursday at the intersection of Northeast Eighth Street and 164th Avenue Northeast, said resident Nick Bean, who took pictures of the bright-red hut and emailed them to other residents.

“I was incredulous,” he said.

The stand, in the Crossroads/ Lake Hills area, opened Saturday, and sure enough, the baristas were scantily clad, he said.

Apparently, baristas in bikinis aren’t Mr. Bean’s cup of tea. (Personally, I find the name “Knotty Bodies” pretty unappealing….)

But…scantily clad? Like…the way everyone is dressed at the beach, or at the pool? Okay…so beaches are not so much of a thing in this region. Good point. But still, scantily clad women adorn the cover of magazines in the family grocery store, seduce us into buying books in the most corporate of book stores, and are plastered all over the freaking TeeVee!

One concerned Bellevue resident (Bellevutian?), the mother of two children, points out:

There’s a bus stop near the espresso stand and several bus routes pass through the intersection, she said.

She is concerned that five bikini-clad baristas in Everett were charged with prostitution earlier this year.

“I really don’t think that’s an appropriate activity for children to witness,” she said.

I seriously doubt children are going to “witness prostitution,” per se, even under the dubious assumption that the coffee kiosk is a front for a prostitution ring. Yeah…they’re selling something wet and warm…it’s called Joe.

My advice for this woman and the other neo-puritans who are outraged: “go Amish.” Seriously, get a buggy and get off the grid.

If a bikini-clad barista is too much, then general proximity to American culture is simply not going to work for you.

(There are more clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up early for some fine dining.

The pressing question for the evening: Will Dino Rossi unconceede the 2008 gubernatorial race now that a Moore Information survey has him leading the race?

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 339 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

(And there are some forty more media clips from the past week in politics at HominidViews.)

There’s some celebratin’ to do following last week’s election. So join us tonight for some political jubilation at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up early and enjoy the fine cuisine.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
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Not in Seattle? With 339 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is one just around the corner from you.

(And there are 40 other media clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

It’s election night! So drop off those ballots and then join us for some electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up early and dine liberally.

Some say tonight is lady’s night at DL…guys will be buying the drinks…especially for attractive gals dressed in red. It’ll be absolutely scandalous!

Not in Seattle? With 340 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is sure to be one around your corner.

A new KING-5/Survey USA poll in the Seattle Mayoral Race was released today. This race has Mike McGinn facing off against Joe Mallahan. Just last week, a Washington Poll poll had Mallahan leading McGinn by 44% to 36% with 20% undecided. The results suggested that Mallahan had an 89.9% probability of winning.

Today’s poll of 586 people (taken over the weekend) shows a tighter race with Mallahan leading McGinn by 45% to 43%. A Monte Carlo analysis (methods) consisting of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the proportions and sample size observed in this poll shows Mallahan winning 635,831 times and McGinn winning 352,638 times. Statistically, the results are a tie. But Mallahan has a small edge with a 64.3% probability of winning; McGinn has a 35.7% probability of winning.

The distribution of election outcomes from the simulation says it better than numbers:

The red bars on the left are Mallahan wins, and the blue bars on the right are McGinn wins.

There are a number of possible confounders here that make this extremely close race even more uncertain. Most obvious is the age discrepancy in support which The Stranger’s Eli Sanders points out may lead to some systematic (statistical) bias:

Remember, too, that SurveyUSA only reaches voters with land-lines, and that some of McGinn’s strongest support is among younger voters—who frequently only have cell phones.

Who knows….

The non-partisan King County executive race has proud Democrat Dow Constantine squaring off against bashful Republican non-partisan Susan Hutchison. Last week’s Washington Poll gave Constantine a 47% to 34% lead over Hutchison.

A new King-5/Survey USA poll released today essentially confirms last week’s findings. The poll of 614 likely or actual voters gives Constantine a 53% to 43% lead over Hutchison with 5% undecided.

As usual, I’ll use the poll numbers and sample size to assess the probability of each candidate winning (methods are given here). The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections gives Constantine 962,298 wins and Hutchison 35,378 wins. That is, the poll result provides evidence that Constantine will win Tuesday’s election with a 96.5% probability. Hutchison has a 3.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

The red bars are wins for Hutchison, and the blue bars are Constantine wins.

This is the first big test since last November’s initiative made the Executive a non-partisan position. And it sure looks like the electorate won’t be fooled by this non-partisan stuff.

This should satisfy a frightening need for an open thread….

(And there are plenty more media clips from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

Please join us tonight for some politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Festivities take place at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning about 8:00 pm. Or show up earlier for some dining liberally.

And feel free to bring along your favorite book of liberal propaganda…

Not in Seattle? With 339 other chapters of Drinking Liberally, there is sure to be one around your corner.