I’ll be live blogging the results. Because I’m blogging here at Horse’s Ass, I’ll probably do it as a mocking of the typical media style. So if a result doesn’t have a link, it’s probably just something I made up. Polls close at 7:00 SC time, but since I and most HA readers are on the West Coast, polls close at 4:00. All updates will be in West Coast time. It should be noted that I don’t have a TV box, so this might skew toward Internet results.

Update 4:02: Still no results in, but Gingrich is projected to win from the exit polls. Here are some sites I’ll be looking at. Kos NPR TPM The SC Election Commission.

Update 4:08: Newt Gingrich needed a win with the GOP’s critical jackass community. It looks like the jackasses pulled through. Still no actual results, but at the very least the jackasses who were willing to talk to exit pollsters liked the way he didn’t ever actually answer questions at the debates and the way he hates gay people. In addition to jackasses, douches, douche bags, and assholes have all broken strongly for Gingrich. Can he unite these disparate groups of Republicans going forward? We’ll see in Florida.

Update 4:17: Given how well Newt did right after revelations about an affair were brought to light, I think the other candidates should seriously consider leaving their wives for younger staffers. Does Santorum have time leave his wife before the Florida primary?

Update 4:24: Still no results, but CBS news has actual exit poll results.

Update 4:31: OK, real results, y’all. So far even though TPM is predicting Newt is the winner, Mittens has the most votes so far:

Mitt Romney…..1,857…….38.1%
Newt Gingrich…1,614…….33.1%
Rick Santorum…639………13.1%
Ron Paul………..454……….9.3%

Update 4:34: The SC Election Commission has even fewer numbers in and has Romney at 47%. You guys, either you shouldn’t trust small numbers from just a few precincts that just start to trickle in, or the exit polls are wrong. I have no way of knowing.

Update 4:54: An hour after the polls close, TPM has Newtron in the lead over Will.I.Ard:

Newt Gingrich…….7,149……36.5%
Mitt Romney………6,628……33.8%
Rick Santorum……2,958…….15.1%
Ron Paul…………..2,097……10.7%

Update 4:58: Among white voters, so far the results are:

Newt Gingrich…….7,149……36.5%
Mitt Romney………6,628……33.8%
Rick Santorum……2,958…….15.1%
Ron Paul…………..2,097……10.7%

I guess they haven’t counted Nikki Haley’s vote yet.

Update 5:03: Romney’s making a speech. He doesn’t like Obama.

Update 5:05: I think Romney thinks Gingrich is too much like Obama. He’s apparently made “a frontal assault on free enterprise” whatever the fuck that means.

Update 5:06: I won’t have the rest of the speech since NPR has cut it off.

Update 5:12: From Michael in the comments on Willard’s speech:

Romney’s clearly mistaken “free enterprise” with half the women in DC.

Update 5:18: With 94,442 votes in, Newtle is still up over Mittenz:

Newt Gingrich…….38,589……40.9%
Mitt Romney………25,525……27.0%
Rick Santorum……16,204……17.2%
Ron Paul…………..12,033……12.7%

Update 5:24: Joe Wilson is on NPR. He just said, “the health care takeover will destroy jobs.” You lie! It’s not a health care takeover and it won’t destroy jobs.

Update 5:37: All the news sources I see say Newter has won 17 delegates. I assume that’s all of them. Does anyone know if there are any delegates up for grabs?

Update 5:45: How many of the 2,353 so far votes for Herman Cain are for Cain and how many for Colbert? I’m going out on a limb and saying all of them are for Colbert. Every single one.

Update 5:52: Apparently Santorum is speaking and he’s still in it, but NPR isn’t breaking to it like they did for part of Romney’s. Here’s my guess: “I hate gay people. Boo women. Race baiting.”

Update 6:01: Looks like “Says You!” on KUOW.

Update 6:07: With 355,360 votes in Oven Mitt is still down to Out with the Old In With The Newt:

Newt Gingrich………….144,242……40.6%
Mitt Romney……………93,628…….26.3%
Rick Santorum…………63,475……17.9%
Ron Paul……………….47,712…….13.4%
Herman “Colbert” Cain…3,477……..1.0%

Update 6:13: I think we can all agree if you want to win an early primary it helps to have been an elected official from a neighboring state. So that bodes well for Newt in Florida.

Update 6:19: Does shutting down the government because you have a sad about seating assignments help you win a primary contest 12 years later? Answer: Maybe?!?

Update 6:22: I just found the NPR live feed and they said that Gingrich won 23 of 25 delegates. I assume Romney won the other 2, but I can’t find it anywhere.

Update 6:25: Newt Gingrich isn’t coming out to speak yet. 3 possibilities for why: 1) He knows coverage will stop after he’s done so he’s dragging it out. 2) He was surprised by the size of the victory and is rewriting his speech. 3) He’s having sex with future wife #4.

Update 6:27: OK, Newt is on stage now.

Update 6:32: Elites are trying to make us stop being American. What?

Update 6:34: The other candidates reflect the openness of the American system. Yes, 3 wealthy white Christian men show how anyone can run for president?

Update 6:35: Newt attacks New York and Washington. People chant “USA USA USA.” Um, New York and Washington are part of the USA.

Update 6:38: He’s making a TelePrompTer joke (as he’s reading off his script).

Update 6:39: Saul Alinsky. What?

Update 6:41: Now he’s talking about “anti-religious bigotry” as he defines opposition to Christian supremacy.

Update 6:44: Oh good, we’re back on food stamp president. Without food stamps a lot of the children of the working poor will starve, asshole. And make them janitors isn’t a fucking answer.

Update 6:45: The NPR feed just cut out the speech. Phew, now I can listen to E.J. Dionne and Matt Continetti. Thanks? NPR.

Update 7:04: OK, most of the votes are in, so this is the last update, probably:

Newt Gingrich……..209,218…….40.4%
Mitt Romney……….139,804…….27.0%
Rick Santorum………89,871…….17.4%
Ron Paul…………….69,360……..13.4%

I assume this means Newt has the lead in the delegate count (even assuming you can make up some guess for the Iowa delegate count). Hmm, I was more serious than I thought I’d be and left a lot of jokes on the table. Surprising given how it wasn’t even that close.

Now on to Florida.

I really dig the initiative by mayors across the country to support marriage equality (h/t). It pushes the issue forward and while it’s mostly symbolism, that’s all that they can do. Still, when I checked out the Washington entries on the list, I was a little disappointed.

Timothy Leavitt – Vancouver, WA
Mike McGinn – Seattle, WA
Marilyn Strickland – Tacoma, WA
Ava Frisinger – Issaquah, WA

That’s it. McGinn and Strickland are gimmies. I’m glad they signed on but it would be much more surprising if they didn’t than if they did, just based on the cities. But Everett isn’t on the list. No Olympia or Bellingham. No Bellevue and only one suburban King County city. No Spokane or any Eastern Washington cities.

Of course, gay people (and their allies) live outside those 4 cities. They live in Eastern Washington. I don’t know what the outreach there was to the mayors not on the list, but there’s more work to do.

– Are y’all digging yourselves out of the snow? I’m not generally a fan of Art Thiel, but I think this piece on Seattle snow driving is mostly right. But there are still some idiots who don’t know how to drive in snow.

– 6 years of tax returns seems like a plan for Mitt.

– Looks like we’re going to have a plastic bag ban for really. Get your canvas bags by July.

– This was my favorite SOPA protest (no offense to us).

– Dana Milbank gets it wrong on abortion and when the great recession started.

– Whoopsadoodle, Seattle Times.

– Emmett has a cautionary tale about the Hotel Olympia.

This David Brooks column has been making the rounds for this thing he said.

I sometimes wonder if the Republican Party has become the receding roar of white America as it pines for a way of life that will never return.

I don’t know when he started covering politics, but his sentiment would have been true since at least Nixon and probably further back. This, as I say, has been well covered in the blogs the last few days. But what struck me most when reading it was this:

The other pleasure of covering campaigns is getting to play American Idol judge, evaluating the political performances.

Look, I’m someone who tries to make politics fun. And on the one hand, if that’s what you like about politics, well fine.

But on the other hand, go fuck yourself David Brooks. How in God’s name can anyone find pleasure in judging — what — the theater aspects of stump speeches and town halls? To actually get pleasure from complaining that George HW Bush looked at his watch, or that Al Gore sighed, or that Kerry was stilted, or Hillary Clinton whatever the press made up about her crying before NH?

That’s a pleasure? Pleasure. Not a chore. Not something you feel you should do to give voters an insight into whatever made up bullshit about why that’s more important to cover than actual issues. A pleasure. Like good sex or good food? The most awful, the shittiest what-the-fuck-are-they-doingist part of political coverage brings David Brooks pleasure? I guess what I’m saying is it’s bad enough when journalists do this sort of coverage, but can’t they at least pretend it’s their job, and not say how fun it is.

I mean I always thought it was laziness: It’s easier to say this or that candidate talks funny (or elegantly) than to report on what foreign policy will look like if they’re president. But to say it’s pleasurable is even worse.

– Mittopoly

– I’ve said it before, but the HA servers ate that thread, so I’ll say it again. For goodness sake, you should really read Melissa McEwan’s primary updates.

– Micro-apartments

– The school closure list.

– Mark your calendars, Chocolate for Choice is March 15.

– Soldier Beetles aren’t a plague.

– The Golden Rule is now bad. I can’t keep up.

Maybe we were all spoiled by the 2008 primary where Edwards, Clinton, Obama, and others had detailed policies on health care that they regularly defended. They had different plans for getting out of Iraq and other foreign policy positions. They differed on how to fix the over 4 dollar gas. In short, whatever silly nonsense distracted us throughout the campaign, the issues got discussed and hashed out in a meaningful way. I could tell people that even though I liked Clinton generally, I preferred Obama’s timetable in Iraq, etc.

Compared to the 2012 GOP contest, holy cow. I don’t know any of Romney’s plans. Well, that’s not entirely true: I know he put out a 523 (approximately, I didn’t look it up) point plan to fix the economy, but I can’t remember the last time he’s had to defend it, let alone speak intelligently about it. And I don’t know what’s in it. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think so: I’ve listened to several debates and read countless articles and blog posts about the campaign, so it isn’t like I’m uninformed.

And I haven’t heard any of the other candidates fill in the void. Newt Gingrich’s big plan seems to be to mine the Moon (a plan I’m fine with, but I don’t think it’s the easiest thing in space to get back to Earth once it’s mined) and he gets billed as their idea person. Huntsman was known (to the extent he was known for anything) for not thinking global warming was bunk, but he didn’t have a plan to fix it so far as I can tell. Perry is proud of Jesus, or something. No one really debated what it means to be a Republican or even basic policy other than Paul.

I’m not sure why that’s the case. Maybe an anti-incumbency mood in the Republican Party has pushed the candidates to explain why they hate Obama more than to explain their own policies. I mean we had a pretty anti-incumbent mood in 2008, but we knew he’d be out of the White House no matter what, so we could focus on issues a bit more. Maybe it’s the Romney inevitability, but Clinton’s health plan came out when she was still perceived in many circles to be inevitable. Maybe Democratic voters actually care about issues more than the Republicans. I don’t know, but after today’s 100,005th (approximately, I didn’t look it up) GOP debate, I still don’t know much about what kind of president Romney, or the other people running for the office would be or what policies they’re pushing.

Yes, I’m the person who thought he was going to get a solid 3rd place in Iowa, so what the fuck do I know? But seeing Perry screw up the what departments would you eliminate (h/t) question again I think he’s not in it to win it. I think the whole project is one of running for 2016.

Now hear me out: When he got into the race late, we all assumed he looked at that weak field, figured “all of these anti-Romneys are awful so it may as well be me.” But what if he saw that same weak field and thought, “there’s no heir apparent when Romeny loses, why not me?”

Now for this to work, you have to accept that the Republican party supports whoever it has felt it’s their time. This year it’s Romeny’s time because he lost to McCain in 2008. In 2008, it was McCain’s time because he lost to W. Bush in 2000. In 2000 it was Bush II’s time because the GOP will support a dynasty. Dole and Pops Bush had been VP nominees and thus it was their time when they were picked, etc.

That’s a bit esoteric, and not everybody buys it. But perhaps Perry looked at that crowd and thought Romney can fuck up in the general, and if I run and lose the nomination, I can be the next in line. Huntsman was never going to be next in line. Bachmann was never going to expand past her Tea Party base. Santorum and Gingrich left DC in disgrace, so it wasn’t going to be them.

And this actually explains a bit about the Perry campaign. The gaffs serve 2 functions: first they make sure he didn’t screw it up by winning this time. He doesn’t have the money or the organization to do his best in a general election, so he doesn’t want to win the primary and screw it up. It also sets the bar incredibly low next time. If he can count to 3, people will remark on how improved his 2016 version run is over 2012. It also explains why he ever went negative on Romney as fiercely as Newt. He doesn’t want to upset the insiders who support Romney this time around.

Of course, there are a few things that don’t fit. The most likely next in line is whoever Romney picks as VP. If it’s someone who can run successfully on their own, well, they’re the next in line. But, Palin, Cheney, Kemp, and Quayle haven’t run for President, so it’s not a given. The most likely answer to why he keeps screwing up may be as a friend of mine, a recent Austin transplant, explained to me, “he’s just dumb.”

In the post for the start of the legislative session, I mentioned briefly a bill that would mandate that insurance providers cover abortions in Washington State. I haven’t seen anything approaching a whip count, so I don’t know if it stands any chance of passing, so feel free to contact your legislators.

Hopefully there are enough votes, because passing this would be a very positive thing. It would make sure that women (and trans men, I assume, but I can’t tell from the press release) who get pregnant have options. Like so much with health care, the goal, one hopes, is to make sure that people have the best options available to them, and that people not be priced out of health care.

Women in Washington ought to have the best access to health care including access to an abortion. And they shouldn’t have to buy a separate rider or pay out of pocket; that’s why we have health insurance in the first place, after all.

Additionally, a lot of people don’t have much choice in their health insurance: they have the choice the company they work for provides. This law will provide that a boss or a union that doesn’t think to provide that care doesn’t negatively affect them. And an anti-choice boss doesn’t get to make that decision for the women who work for them.

Washington state has a chance to do something good when so often we hear negative news from the states on abortion/reproductive rights issues.

[Read more…]

– Does our status as a caucus state mean we’ll miss the aborted fetus ad at the Super Bowl? (Today in questions I thought I’d never ask.)

– Smoking a joint from time to time won’t damage the lungs, even after years of drug use, according to a study led by University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) researchers that disproves one of the major concerns about marijuana — that smoking it must be just as risky as lighting up a cigarette.

– For serious, fuck James O’Keefe and crew.

– The person behind the we still hate gay people initiative.

– I’d go in a second.

– If Iowa taught me anything, it should be that I’m not the person on this blog to make predictions. But fuck that, here are my uninformed New Hampshire predictions:

Win: Mittens
Place: Paul
Show: Huntsman

But more space between Mittens and Paul than 8 votes.

– Speaking of Romney.

– Saying CE instead of AD is anti-Christian now. So tough to keep up.

– Vietnamese Cultural Center to dedicate Fallen Soldiers’ Memorial

– I couldn’t decide what of these two pieces to use as a goof on creationists. So I’ve included both.

– Gregoire’s B&O proposal looks bad for cities, especially Seattle.

Another legislative session started today. The legislature needs to figure out the budget; revenue has fallen since the biennial budget passed last session, and they only closed part of the gap in the special session. The questions in a nutshell are how much will it be balanced on the backs of state workers and people who need state services and how much will it be new revenue. If a revenue package passes, how regressive will it be and will it go to the voters? It looks bleak, and possibly awful, but perhaps some court rulings will finally push the issue.

On social issues, things look much better. With Gregoire pushing for the bill that would let gay couples get married, it stands a decent shot at passing. The marijuana legalization initiative went to the legislature, and it might be improved before it gets to the ballot. Washington NARAL and others are pushing a bill to require health insurance companies to provide to abortion services.

As always, the question here is what would y’all like to see in the short session?

– How dare moderators talk about wedge issues?

– In Saturday’s debate Ron Paul said Martin Luther King was one of his heroes (and a libertarian!!?!). But not enough, as some of his supporters claim, to support the holiday.

– We really need to fix immigration system.

– Having lived in Olympia, it’s felt a bit odd hearing the new Congressional district as centered around Olympia as if it, or even North Thurston, was almost 1/10 of the state. Turns out the district lies 2/3 in Pierce County, and might be a problem for Democrats.

– Absent hard numbers Mr. Ben-Joseph settles on a compromise of 500 million parking spaces in the country, occupying some 3,590 square miles, or an area larger than Delaware and Rhode Island combined. If the correct number is 2 billion, we’re talking about four times that: Connecticut and Vermont.

– Who would have guessed that anti-choice assholes would be assholes?

– My Hometown Is Better Than Yours

Back in September, to great fanfare, well to some fanfare, to a Ryan Blethen column at least, The Seattle Times announced their great, their initiative, to have a conversation on how to fix everything wrong with King County, Washington State, and the Federal government. They called it, “Just Fix It.” And while they’re still cranking out editorials in an attempt to prove how much they hate state workers and people who rely on government services, their brilliant idea has stopped updating. The last piece in this series is from November (I think, it’s not organized chronologically, exactly).

Now, projects everywhere fall by the wayside. And if this project about how it’ll be simple to fix all of our problems turns out too difficult to maintain, well fine: I had pretty low expectations of it from the start. But they’re still promoting it at the top of Editorials and Opinion page on their website.

I was recently reading Bus Chick’s year in review, and I was struck by this:

What’s a little kid-related bus inconvenience compared to no buses? Those of you who live in King County no doubt remember this summer’s terrifying, “we might have to cut 17% of your service” moment. The County Council passed the (temporary) congestion reduction charge, but the problem hasn’t gone away–for KC Metro, or for transit agencies across the state (CT and PT have already implemented drastic cuts) and the country. If the state doesn’t figure out a real solution to the transit revenue problem ASAP, those barely averted cuts will become a reality.

In the meantime, riders (including this one) are already feeling the pinch. Metro is closing stops, reducing hours, eliminating routes, and taking other steps to save money in anticipation of its bleak revenue future.

I agree and would add that the cost of riding is also up quite a bit. With fares up to $3.00 for 2 zones at peak times and with the upcoming elimination of the free ride area, the recession is really pushing the cost of riding onto riders and employers. Fortunately for me, my work pays for it, but that’s a cost to the company I work for is up.*

Last year could have been a lot worse for Metro. And while we celebrate that we avoided that, we should also realize what we’ve lost.

[Read more…]

– Hornswoggle is a great word.

– But as sure as the followers of Farrakhan deserved more than UFOs, anti-Semitism and conspiracy theories, those of us who oppose the drug-war, who oppose the Patriot Act deserve better than Ron Paul

– Richard Cordray will get a recess appointment to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

– Application for Kanye’s Magical Awesomeness Factory

– I don’t agree with North Korea very often, but it’s true that both the regime and I think Mayan apocalypse is bunk (point 7). Although for very different reasons.