Sorry this is so late.

– The New Southpark bridge is more than half way done.

– Liberals, don’t panic after one debate.

– Jack Welsh proves no matter how good at business you are, you can still say dumb things.

– Why does anyone want to be a Boy Scout anymore?

– Walking and biking improvements in the city budget are starting to look like they may be in the final product.

– I really liked Elementary, so far, but I fear it’s going to be murder every week. One of the things I like about the original Holmes stories is that there was a mix of types of mysteries (it’s one reason to have him not be a police officer with a particular beat) and so far that hasn’t been the case.

Not to pick on Goldy since you can see the same sort of stats everywhere. But the No President Since FDR Has Won Reelection with Unemployment Above 7.2 Percent stat has always bugged me. So let’s break it down.

There have only been 3 presidents who lost reelection since FDR. Ford, Carter, and G H W Bush. In all three of those elections the unemployment rate was above 7.2 (in the first Bush’s case it was 7.3, and in the other cases it was lower than it is now, but higher than that, you can get the historical data here). I bet in at least 2 of FDR’s reelection victories, unemployment was well above that. So it’s only 3 for 5.

Really, what people are saying is the last 3 times the unemployment rate was above 7.2, presidents lost their reelection bids. Well, there are plenty of streaks in politics that are larger than 3 that probably don’t mean a whole lot.

Of course there’s an implied corollary: that presidents won when it was below 7.2. All right. That gives us Truman, Ike, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, and W Bush. That brings the streak up to a more respectable 9, if you’re willing to read more into what people are saying than they actually say. Still, I can’t imagine going up to too many political scientists and saying you have 9 data points (or actually more than 9, but don’t look back further than that) and having them take you seriously.

A 9 game winning streak doesn’t guarantee a win in the next match. That doesn’t mean the unemployment rate doesn’t matter. People who are unemployed, and people with unemployed friends and family, are going to vote based on that.

It’s not controversial to say high unemployment is probably a hindrance to a presidential reelection bid. But there are way too many other factors to assume that 7.2 is a magic number.

– The federal investment in public broadcasting equals about one one-hundredth of one percent of the federal budget. Elimination of funding would have virtually no impact on the nation’s debt. Yet the loss to the American public would be devastating.

– Romney Dominated Debate, Say Pundits Trying To Figure Out GOP Candidate’s Policies

– Rob McKenna wrote on Slog yesterday.

– Good jobs numbers. Also, it’s tough to find stories that don’t frame it as political (I understand why people frame it like that this close to the election, but still).

– In the choice between love and hate, choose love. Help stop bigotry against our Muslim neighbors.

– Bugs and poop are in our future.

I know you don’t come to HA for my opinions on a national issue. And the debate has been the main thing in the news all day. Still, there’s one thing that surprised me that hasn’t got much play. When I was listening to the debate, the thing that I thought was Romney’s biggest fuckup was his joke about wanting tax breaks to ship jobs overseas.

The second topic, which is you said you get a deduction for taking a plant overseas. Look, I’ve been in business for 25 years. I have no idea what you’re talking about. I maybe need to get a new accountant.

It’s funny because of all the lives he’s ruined.

Sure, chronicling all of Romney’s lies and figuring out the policy is probably more important than getting into this. And since people are saying Romney won the debate, pointing out that this is a pretty big gaff goes against the storyline. But still, it seems like the biggest fuckup of the night.

Now, I say it didn’t get much play. But one important person brought it up the next day, even if he soft peddled just how disgusting it was:

The Mitt Romney we all know invested in companies that were called pioneers of outsourcing jobs to other countries, but the guy on stage last night, he said that he doesn’t even know that there are such laws that encourage outsourcing. He’s never heard of them! Never heard of them. Never heard of tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. He said that if it’s true, he must need a new accountant. [laughter] Now, we know for sure it was not the real Mitt Romney because he seems to be doing just fine with his current accountant. [laughter]

That’s President Obama, who probably would have done better to say that on the stage, but nonetheless is saying it now. I know the difference between them on outsourcing isn’t as great as I would like. Obama still favors policies that will let too many of America’s jobs get outsourced. But at least he doesn’t want businesses who do that to be able to write it off as a business expense.

I don’t really know how the pool report is supposed to work. But when the First Lady came to town, I asked if I could go. But they weren’t letting reporters, or whatever I am, in. But they were gracious enough to let me have a copy of the pool report. For the most part, it was a fine recap, but it starts out oddly snarky.

She delivered a very similar speech to the one she gave in August at the Democratic National Convention. In fact, there was nothing new.

She started by sharing a “little secret” that she has shared many times before: that she fell in love with her husband because of his character.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to see that sort of thing in the papers. But does complaining that it’s the same as the speech at the DNC or saying that a “little secret” has been shared before really help other reporters, and whatever I am, know what happened at the event?

This is on domestic issues.

6:04: The economy. Jobs. What are the major differences between the two of you about how you would go about creating jobs.

– Obama: 4 years ago, we went through the worst financial crisis since the depression. We’ve begun to fight our way back. The auto industry and housing are coming back. Romney’s perspective is if we cut taxes, skew to the wealthy, we’ll be better off. I think we have to invest in energy and education. Fix the tax code to help people who invest in America. Are we going to double down on the old policies that got us into this mess?

– Romney: I’ve met people across the country. Mentioning swing states. Can you help us? The answer is yes. Get energy independent, open trade, make sure people have the best skills and education, balance the budget, champion small business. Complains about big government without mentioning that shrinking government is part of the problem (in the recession).

6:10: Obama wants to lower corporate taxes. Lovely. Fucking lovely. And he’s being a deficit hawk. Boo.

6:13: Romney is talking about clean coal. So that’s a lie, because that doesn’t exist.

6:14: Obama is now talking about tax cuts for the middle class. Sure. Now he’s going after Romney’s tax plan because there aren’t the specifics about the loopholes that he says he supports.

6:18: Romney is saying he won’t add to the deficit. But the math doesn’t really work.

6:19: Obama: “Romney’s big bold idea is ‘never mind.'” My tax plan lowered taxes for 98% of small businesses and families, but for incomes over $250,000 we should go back to the rates under Clinton.

6:21: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

6:23: Obama: The approach Governor Romney is talking about is the same that was tried in 2001 and 2003.

6:24: Romney is whining about not having the last word.

What to do about the federal debt. My answer is don’t care until we’re out of a recession.

6:27: Romney: The debt is immoral. Raising taxes slows down the rate of growth. I want to cut spending. He doesn’t seem to realize that cutting spending hurts the economy.

6:28: Obama: When I came into office we had 2 wars that weren’t paid for, 2 tax cuts that weren’t paid for and an economic crash. Now we’ve cut discretionary budget the most since Ike. $2.50 in cuts for every $1 of income.

6:31: Romney says Obama should have supported Simpson Bowles, but his plan isn’t Simpson Bowles.

6:34: Obama is going after the oil companies’ corporate welfare “when they’re making a profit every time you’re at the pump.” Don’t take a deduction for moving a plant overseas.

6:37: If you drink every time one of these people mentions a swing state or a city in one, enjoy blacking out.

6:38: Is Romney joking about how he shipped jobs overseas and didn’t get enough of a tax cut???????

Entitlements. Do you see a major difference on Social Security?

6:40: Obama: Social Security’s basic structure is sound, but it may need some tweaks. My grand mother raised me, and she ended up living alone by choice. The reason she could be independent is Medicare and Medicaid. And that’s what I think of when people talk about entitlements. So strengthen the system over the long term. Don’t overpay insurance companies or providers. Use that money to lower drug costs to seniors and preventive care.

6:43: Romney: Neither the president nor I are proposing any changes for retirees or near retirees. So stop listening. Now he’s saying Obama cut Social Security. I doubt he’ll mention that it’s the same as his VP proposed.

6:44: Obama: I think it’s important for governor Romney to present his plan. It’s called premium support, but it’s actually a voucher program. If you’re 54 or 55, you should listen because it will effect you. You can have a voucher, but it won’t keep up with inflation.

6:46: I have become fond of that phrase Obamacare. If you repeal it, seniors will be harmed, and insurance companies will be the primary beneficiaries.

6:48: Romney is talking about means testing for Medicare. Boo.

On the economy: What is your view on federal regulation? Should there be more?

6:52: Romney says regulation is important, at the same time it can become excessive. It can become out of date, and hurt the economy. Dodd Frank designates banks too big to fail (?). I would repeal and replace it. He doesn’t say what he’ll replace it with (but he does say he’ll keep some of it).

6:54: Obama: We had excesses from all sectors. So we had the toughest reforms since the 1930’s. We made sure all the help was paid back with interest. Does anybody think the problem is we had too much regulation of Wall Street?

6:56: Romney:Try to get a loan today. As if loans were easy to get before Dodd Frank.

Do you want to repeal health reform?

6:57: Romney: Health care is too expensive. Craft a plan at the state level, and get costs down.

6:59: Obama: When I was running for office, people weren’t able to get insurance. Families would go bankrupt if they got sick. If they had a preexisting condition they couldn’t get coverage. There might be an arbitrary limit. We worked on this and on jobs. If you’ve got health insurance, companies can’t jerk you around. If you don’t have insurance, you can essentially have a group rate. The irony is we’ve seen this model work well in Massachusetts.

7:02: Romney: In my state Republicans and Democrats worked together. OK, fine, but why didn’t he ask other Republicans to work with Democrats?

7:03: Romney: A president has to work across the aisle. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

7:04: Romney: The Democratic legislators in Mass could give some advice to Republicans in Congress about working across the aisle.

7:06: I was hoping for more zingers.

7:08: Are there any clinics not in swing states?

7:11: Obama: Romney will replace it but won’t tell you what he’ll replace it with. We don’t know the details of his tax plan, of his replacement of Dodd Frank, of repeal of Obamacare. Is he doing this because his plans are too good? No.

The role of government. Do you believe there’s a difference as to how you view the mission of the Federal government.

7:14: Obama: The first role of government is to keep people safe. But also, the Federal government can create the opportunities. There are some things we can do as individuals, but there are some things we can do together. Now he’s talking about Race to the Top. Boo, again.

7:15: Romney: I love great schools. Every state should make the decision on their own. The pursuit of happiness means something something God.

7:18 All federal funds should follow the child, not to the school district.

7:19: Obama: The Ryan budget would cut the education budget by 20%.

7:22: Obama: We’ve cut out the middle men on student loans. Our priorities make a difference.

7:23: I hope that “your own facts” line wasn’t his zinger.

A meta question about partisanship.

7:25: Romney: Since I worked with Democrats when they were 87% of the Mass legislature, I can totally work with them in Congress.

7:26: Obama: I’ll work with anyone as long as they have good ideas for building the middle class.

Closing statements:

7:28: Obama: Thank you and Romney. This was a terrific debate. 4 years ago we were going through an crisis. I still believe in lots of people in swing states. Make sure everyone has a fair share and plays by the same rules. I fought every day for the middle class and those trying to get into the middle class.

7:30: Romney: This is about the course of America. There are two paths and they lead in 2 different directions. I’ll get incomes up again. If I’m president I’ll create 12 Million jobs. If Obama is elected, Obamacare will be installed, and there will be a made up amount of health care premium increase.

7:33: I actually think this was a pretty good debate. People had a chance to get into the weeds a bit, but there was some real discussion. I’ve edited it a bit to make it more clear who was saying what.

– Michelle Obama came to town.

– Another anti-Inslee ad with someone who isn’t a great spokesperson.

– More Italians bought bikes than cars last year. Next year, Washington?

– I like the idea of Olympia as mighty metropolis.

– The Thurston County Chamber of Commerce opposes it. The Olympian opposes it. If that is not reason enough right there to support Thurston County Proposition No. 1, it’s time you turn in your Occupy Olympia underpants.

– Richard Conlin makes the case for Surface-Transit-I-5.

– Twitter has really given people the opportunity to pack so much wrong into so few words.

One would think something like Inslee’s proposal for an Economic Competitiveness and Development office would be the sort of thing that Rob McKenna would mostly ignore because it’s bland and obvious: the government should do more to help grow the economy, especially in areas where we can press our advantages. It’s, in short not the issue you’d think McKenna would want to draw a distinction. But:

A TV ad from Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna features a small business owner mocking Democrat Jay Inslee for part of his jobs plan: a new government office dedicated to helping businesses

Hmm. Well, I think that would backfire on its merits. Again, the government might help small businesses isn’t exactly a monster under the bed type story. But, it turns out that this particular small business owner had help from the government.

But elsewhere Bresheare has had great praise for one government office that helped her business, along with many others. She’s featured on the website of the Small Business Development Center at Western Washington University, complimenting the advice she’s received there (a fact pointed out by the Inslee campaign).

Those small-business centers are a partnership of the federal Small Business Administration and the state, and they offer services such as aid in writing a business plan or obtaining financing. The services are publicly funded and provided at no charge to small business owners.

Look, of course there’s room for debate about what are the best programs to help grow the economy and individual businesses. And, yes, sometimes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. Still, the facts remain: very often government at all levels helps businesses.

Holy balls on toast, you guys. If we elect Obama some terrible things will happen. Iraq will be overwhelmed and Christians won’t be able to say a prayer even before school. Massive tax increases for the middle class. The Boy Scouts will shut down and by October 2012 we’ll — wait 2012?

Oh, I see. That was predictions from the last time Obama was on the ballot. None of them came true.

Look, I get that it’s difficult to make predictions. Especially when you’re up your own ass with a right wing ideology. But if you’re not good at making predictions then, um, don’t make predictions.

– The forest fires in Central and Eastern Washington are keeping students inside.

– I know in a few months we’ll look back at this and think how quaint it was. But Dreams of my Real Father feels like maybe peak wingnut.

– Unfortunately, these sort of things have real world consequences.

– Metro System Maps! [h/t]

– Sexy liberals came to Seattle.

– I’ve always said babies are smarter than Republicans.

– FYI, the Open Threads are going to be Monday-Wednesday-Friday for a while.

1:02: I’m on the Rapid Ride going from Downtown to West Seattle. It smells like a new car, but stronger. I’ve smelled worse smells on the bus. I’m still downtown and so far it feels pretty much like any other ride. Maybe it’s because the Orca Card reader at my stop wasn’t up yet. Maybe it’s because the display for how many more minutes there are to go wasn’t up yet. In any event, I’m using the bus’s WiFi, so here goes.

1:05: All the doors open, although, as I say, the card reader wasn’t working yet, so it doesn’t feel like that’s an advantage.

1:06: And I’ve had my first random dude speaking to the driver through the light. Fuck you that guy.

1:11: I just typed something about how we’re on the Viaduct now, and got an error message. Lovely. Switching to ClearWire.

1:15: The views on the Viaduct and the West Seattle Bridge are quite nice. When it’s a Saturday, this is quite Rapid for real. Of course the real test will be Rush Hour on Monday and beyond.

1:19: First stop in West Seattle. I didn’t take the 54 enough to compare, but it feels better than the circuitous route it used to be.

1:24: The junction. 22 minutes feels about the same as before, maybe a bit quicker.

1:27: The person next to me says I shouldn’t use my wireless, because it’s really fast on the bus. I told him I got an error earlier, and he didn’t believe it. I don’t have to justify my WiFi device to you, random guy.

1:30: Morgan Junction.

1:31: I realized I’ve got used to the smell of the bus. Usually when it smells of homeless person piss, that’s something you can be thankful and maybe a bit worried about. With new bus small, I guess the same.

1:36: Ferry terminal. Whenever I go to Vashon via the bus, it feels like a crapshoot as to if the bus and the boat are well timed. With more frequent bus trips, I imagine it’ll feel like a crapshoot with better odds.

1:41: Westwood village. So fine route, but it doesn’t feel like that much of an improvement over the old. People who take it more often than I do will probably have a better sense of it.

I’m just got off my last free ride I’ll ever take on Metro (provided there isn’t another policy change, and I don’t start sneaking on). For me as a supporter of the elimination of the free ride area, and a Puget Pass holder, it’ll hopefully be fine. And I think it’ll be good for the county too. But it will probably take some getting used to.

So, it’ll probably be a bit longer in the mornings, at least for a while, while drivers and passengers sort it out. But 3rd Ave will still be nice. And for the rest of the county, not having to figure out if it’s pay as you enter or leave will be good.

I understand that the Internet is awful. But for serious, this is disgusting. First off, as Tate notes, “The refs made the call not me.” So yeah, your anger is directed at the wrong person.

But even if the anger were focused like a laser at the right place, don’t call anyone a nigger or a cunt. Don’t wish anyone were raped.

I don’t know why this is difficult for some people. I believe in a rough and tumble debate (the other day I called some people shitheads). But racist and sexist shit is just stupid. And even random sports fans on the Internet can do better.

– The map for the 7 proposed Seattle districts does a better job of keeping the downtown area in one district than the state or county districts.

– I have not finished reading the Living Under Drones report, but so far, it’s pretty awful.

– There will still be blown calls, but the NFL refs will be back, and will be significantly better than the old ones.

– The 36th is an interesting race.

– People in swing states don’t like bad policy either.

– Those forest fires fucked up the air.

In 1995, there was a proposal to elect the Seattle City Council by districts. Mostly, it was on the ballot because Tom Stewart was a jackass (pdf). That said, the way we elect the city council is made of stupid. There’s no reason to have 9 at large districts. It means downtown and poorer areas are underrepresented on the council, and it means that communities of color and other groups that are geographically grouped have a tougher time electing people.

So, while I would prefer all district elections, I can see myself supporting a proposal to have some districts and some at large representatives if it gets on the ballot. Still, the people running it don’t seem like good people. The only one I know of is John Fox who has been on the wrong side of a lot of issues. Most recently he helped kill decent transit in this town because he didn’t like the tax structure, but whoops, forgot to ask the legislature to give us a more equitable way to pay for it. The rest of them seem worse.

The group, which will announce its plans in a press conference tomorrow morning, is headed up by three business representatives and one low-income housing activists [sic]. The business reps are Faye Garneau, director of the Aurora Avenue Merchants Association, who fought for years against bus lanes on Aurora; Fremont Dock owner Suzie Burke, who fought, most recently, against a bike lane on Stone Way in Fremont; Eugene Wasserman, one of the plaintiffs suing to stop the city from completing the “Missing Link” of the Burke-Gilman Trail; and Seattle Displacement Coalition founder John Fox, who has steadfastly fought against pro-density legislation, from Yesler Terrace to Roosevelt to, well, the entire city.

So, maybe I’ll support districts. But if these people think it’ll give them what they want, maybe I’ll have to reconsider.