Goldy

If Republican challenger Mike McGavick manages to win election to the US Senate, I’m guessing he’s in line for a plum assignment on the Budget Committee, what with the creative accounting skills he’s demonstrating in his own campaign.

Yesterday The Stranger’s Josh Feit broke the story of how McGavick dramatically inflated his campaign’s financial health at the end of the much-watched first quarter reporting period, and today the Seattle P-I’s Neil Modie adds a few details. As it turns out, McGavick erroneously reported $896,261 cash-on-hand when he only had $748,975.

Oops.

So how’d he manage this impressive sleight of hand?

McGavick spent over $266,000 on a TV advertising blitz in the final weeks of March, but only reported $119,000 during the quarter. FEC rules require advertising expenses to be reported when the contract is booked, but as Feit explains, McGavick used the unusual 30-day terms he received to improperly push much of the expense off into the second quarter.

The idea that a campaign could buy political ads on credit shocks people who are familiar with political advertising. For starters, credit, by definition, is a loan. Traditionally, loans need to be reported in campaign-finance reports. No account of a loan for the TV buy appears in McGavick’s report. “Buying on credit would be very peculiar. It can be considered an in-kind contribution. So stations have campaigns pay in advance,” says Catherine Herrick, a longtime political media buyer in Washington, D.C. who owns the firm Buying Time. (Her clients include the Democratic National Committee.) “I can understand it with a corporate client, but it’d be perplexing for a station to do that with a political campaign.” Herrick’s point is that political campaigns are based on fundraising. How does a TV station know a campaign is going to meet its fundraising goals? Obviously, some candidates are richer than others, and are good for it

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It was a special, bipartisan edition of Drinking Liberally last night, as we welcomed King County Journal reporter and self-described righty Don Ward to the podcast. Don comments as "Reporterward" (get it?) on HorsesAss.org and (un)Sound Politics, and happily reports that none of us liberals smell. Well… except for Will.

Joining me, Don and Will in our weekly game of "Left, Right and Joel" were Mollie, Carl, and Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, who has lost his designation as a "special guest" by pretty much becoming a regular. Topics of discussion included Bush’s plan to demilitarize our borders by sending troops there, what’s the matter with Spokane, vote-by-mail, and the blog wars.

The show is 58:20, and is available here as a 36.7 MB MP3. Please visit PodcastingLiberally.com for complete archives and RSS feeds.

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for producing the show.]

Republicans have reached a new low in the current Washington Post/ABC News poll. Voters now overwhelmingly prefer Democrats to deal with gas prices, health care, education, the budget, the economy, protecting privacy, Iraq, immigration, taxes and terrorism.

But all’s not lost for the GOP. Voters still prefer Republicans by a comfortable margin when it comes to making arrangements to bring in the hookers.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Please join us for cheers, jeers and beers as we discuss this week’s political happenings.

I’ve been on a deadline all day, so I’m real thirsty.

And if you happen to be a liberal drinker on the other side of the mountains, the Tri-Cities chapter of DL also meets Tuesday nights, 7 PM, Atomic Ale, 1015 Lee Blvd., in Richland. Go ask Jimmy for more details.

With our good friend Stefan continuing to pound the anti-vote-by-mail meme, I thought it might be time to clarify the issue with a little visual aid. Following is a map of King County from the September, 2005 primary election, showing the percentage of votes cast at the polls, versus those cast by mail, broken down by council district:

The small text is fuzzy, but a couple of patterns quickly emerge. First, it is clearly apparent that vote-by-mail has proven to be overwhelmingly popular countywide, with between 75 and 86 percent of voters choosing that option, depending on the district. Second, vote-by-mail has proven most popular in the more rural districts that comprise the heart of the county’s Republican base.

What Stefan and other vote-by-mail critics would like to do is cast the current debate as a contest between vote-by-mail and traditional polling places… but that is a battle the marketplace has already settled. Thus, the decision before the King County Council is not whether to choose one or the other; it’s whether to consolidate elections operations by largely eliminating the option that an increasingly tiny percentage of voters choose to use.

Stefan would like to eliminate vote-by-mail entirely, except for legitimate absentees, but that is a politically unfeasible option that simply is not on the table. Every election is in a sense a referendum on vote-by-mail, and it is hard to imagine the Council ignoring the clear sentiments of 85 percent of their constituents.

For better or worse, vote-by-mail is here to stay. The decision before the Council is not whether to expand it — that’s happening organically — the decision is whether to continue to bear the cost and complexity of maintaining polling places that most voters no longer use.

And with all the posturing from Stefan and his cohorts that this is all part of some Democratic conspiracy to maintain an unfair electoral advantage, I point back to the map to show that if any party is reaping turnout benefits from vote-by-mail, it’s the GOP.

So by all means, debate the issue fully, for any discussion of potential security concerns can only help to make the final implementation more robust and secure. But lets be honest about the decision before the Council.

Our sage friend Stefan lays into The Stranger‘s Eli Sanders for repeating a blog report stating that Karl Rove would be indicted.

Hmm. Since Stefan has such a low tolerance for faulty predictions, I was wondering when he might get around to apologizing for this doozy…?

As I’m trying to predict how Judge Bridges might rule on Monday morning, I’m going to make a call that is contrary to the MSM. He will either use the proportional analysis as proposed by the Republicans or punt on the issue by using an even more generous standard for tossing out illegal votes that will help the Republicans.

Or perhaps, this one…?

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m predicting that Judge Bridges will set aside the election.

Just curious.

Hmm. Looks like I’m turning HA into a political events calendar.

President Jimmy Carter and First Lady Rosalynn Carter will be at Seattle’s Town Hall next Thursday, May 25th, 5:00 – 7:00 PM, as part of a fundraising event for their son Jack Carter, the Democratic candidate for US Senator from Nevada. Please RSVP to cartertownhall@yahoo.com

This isn’t one of those ritzy, high-roller fundraisers… suggested donations are only $50.00 per person, $25.00 for seniors and students. So it’s a terrific opportunity to meet one of our nation’s truly great statesmen, while doing your part to help Democrats take back the Senate.

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold needs your help in taking back the US Senate, and he’s coming out to Seattle this week to personally ask for it.

Sen. Feingold will join local elected officials at a rally on Saturday, May 20th, 12:30 PM, at Whittier Elementary School, 1320 NW 75th Street. Afterwards, volunteers will canvass the neighborhood. (Please RSVP rsvp@wa-democrats.org if you’re planning to attend.)

With his vocal, anti-war stance and his bold proposal to censure the President for illegal wiretapping, Sen. Feingold has become a darling of progressive Democrats nationwide. So I’m hoping some local progressives will take notice that Sen. Feingold is taking time from his busy schedule to come out to WA state to stump for Sen. Maria Cantwell. (He’ll also be joining her at a fundraiser on Sunday.)

Sen. Feingold gets the bigger picture, and if you want to help him achieve his agenda, then you need to help him win control of the US Senate. And the best way local Democrats can contribute is to help reelect Sen. Cantwell.

If you think I’ve got this wrong, then Saturday is your chance to ask Sen. Feingold yourself. See you there.

Am I a great dad, or what? I mean, really… how many dads manage to get a picture of their daughter’s beloved teddy bear into the local paper? Sure, I’m somewhere in the picture too, but well… been there, done that.

Of course, the accompanying story isn’t about my daughter’s teddy bear at all… it’s about how us local bloggers are beginning to impact local politics.

Democratic congressional candidate Darcy Burner can’t match the public-service record of her Republican opponent, Rep. Dave Reichert, but she can make one claim in their contest that’s hers alone: She used to be a blogger.

That experience, and the Internet savvy that goes along with it, has led Burner to reach out actively to the regional left-leaning blogger network — a connection that may have played a key role in helping her meet a crucial fund-raising target. The Burner-blogger relationship could point the way to the political future, in which Web-based activism exercises a growing influence over regional, statewide and even national elections.

The Seattle P-I‘s Gregory Roberts describes how WA state’s emerging local blogosphere is beginning to inch from advocacy to full blown activism, and I remain convinced that if the “netroots” are going to have a major impact on local politics, it’s going to happen here first.

The Burner fund-raising drive could signal a change in the blogs’ role, Goldstein said.

“We’ve been doing advocacy; now we’re finally going to see some sort of impact in terms of activism,” he said.

“The blogosphere is just maturing to the point where we can get people out there moving, and digging into their pockets.”

Man, that David Goldstein guy really knows what he’s talking about.

No doubt Burner deserves most of the credit for her strong fundraising and growing buzz, but it’s clear we’ve contributed something to her early success. And while I don’t want to over-hype the impact of bloggers in the current election cycle, I do think that some critics are missing the larger picture:

To Clay Shirky, an adjunct professor in the Interactive Telecommunications Program at New York University, the larger question is whether blogs can change voting patterns.

Their rabid partisanship attracts mostly true believers, and they end up screeching to the choir.

“Blogs are good for motivating the base,” Shirky said. “They’re not good for convincing swing voters.”

Yeah, well… maybe so. But motivating the base is exactly what Burner needed in the early going. Her task was to convince Democrats that she could excite people… that she could raise money… that she could win. And with our help, Burner did exactly that.

Convincing the swing voters, well, that’s Burner’s job. But at least now she’ll have a chance to do it on a more equal footing.

UPDATE:
I just saw a PDF of the P-I‘s front page, and all I can say to Stefan is: mine’s bigger than yours. (Also, both Apple Computer and the fisherman glove industry owe me a promotional fee.)

Stream courtesy of Crooks and Liars.

Not much of a surprise at this point, but TruthOut reports that Karl Rove has been indicted. Oh… and get a load of this: a copy of Joe Wilson’s column in the NY Times, personally marked up by Dick Cheney. Could the VP be next?

Way back during the heat of the 2004 election contest controversy, evidence of duplicate registrations, felon voters and dead people still on the rolls were used to fling charges of incompetence, negligence and corruption at King County Elections. Evergreen Freedom Foundation president Bob Williams even publicly called for elections director Dean Logan to be jailed.

What an asshole. (Williams, that is.)

What these vicious, partisan blowhards conveniently ignored was the fact that for all the duplicate registrations and such, there was very little evidence of double voters, and that these registration irregularities did not just occur in King County, but were endemic across the state and throughout the nation. That’s why as part of the Help America Vote Act, the US Congress had required states to develop statewide voter registration databases… a database WA was in the process of creating in November of 2004.

Well, WA’s database went online this past January — as long scheduled — and yesterday Secretary of State Sam Reed announced that they had culled 55,000 duplicate registrations and dead people from the rolls.

Good.

That’s one of the reasons why we spent all this time and money building this database. As for its actual impact on actual voter fraud….

But investigations of the records found very few cases of potential voter fraud. About 30 cases of possible double voting were forwarded to county officials for investigation, Reed said.

In most cases, he said, people moved and forgot to notify their local election offices — a common problem for voting regulators.

“They’ll change their magazine subscriptions and they’ll change a lot of other things, but they don’t bother to contact their elections officials and say, ‘Cancel my registration,’ ” Reed said.

Officials also aren’t aware of any cases of votes cast under the names of deceased people, Reed spokeswoman Trova Heffernan said. Election officials simply had not been notified of the deaths.

Of course, all this comes as a big disappointment to elections conspiracy theorists like our good friend Stefan and the folks at the EFF, where Jonathan Bechtle, director of their Orwellian-named “Voter Integrity Project” used Reed’s announcement as an opportunity to once again slam him and other elections officials:

“It’s an indicator of the systematic problems, and it’s not going to be solved by a couple of months of checking. It has to have some real leadership to change how the system works,”

What an asshole.

Putting aside for a moment the question of how big a problem these “systematic problems” really are, of course it’s not going to be solved in a couple of months… it takes years. Development of the statewide database was initiated well before the 2004 election, and the full benefits won’t be realized until well after its go-live date. Similarly, Dean Logan had only been running KCRE for a little more than year before the infamous gubernatorial statistical-tie put his office under the microscope, at which time he had only begun to implement a series of planned reforms.

To critics like Stefan and the assholes at EFF, every flaw or error is an opportunity for a personal attack. Dean Logan, a quiet, mild-mannered, (dare I say “nebishy”) apolitical technocrat is vilified as the evil mastermind of a corrupt Democratic machine. And we’re told we must put “real leadership” as SOS, because Sam Reed largely chose to honor the obligations of his office over the partisan demands of his Republican Party. (Florida’s Katherine Harris and Ohio’s Kenneth Blackwell represent the GOP model of “real leadership” in an elections official.)

Reed says his office is investigating another 900 registrations that might be from felons who haven’t had their voting rights restored, and while I strongly disagree with our voter disenfranchisement laws, I suppose this is another example of the statewide database doing its job.

And another example of our elections officials doing their jobs as well.

So, the number three man at the CIA has both his home and his Langley office searched today. This is the FBI getting warrants to search CIA offices as part of a criminal investigation. How fucked up are the Bush cronies?

Imagine the howls of scorn from the media if this kind of scandal had unfolded during the Clinton administration.

Apparently, Nordstroms strongly supports gay-bashing John Birchers who shoot retarded people in the back. At least that’s what I conclude from the fact that John N. Nordstrom, the department store heir, director, and former co-chairman, has given yet another $25,000 to Dennis Falk and his Initiative 920 campaign to repeal the estate tax.

Joining Nordstrom ($50,000) in selfishly bankrolling the political career of a hateful, right-wing nutcase, are Careage Development founder Gene Lynn ($20,000), Seattle developer Martin Selig ($17,500), Alaska National Insurance Chairman George Suddock ($16,000), and the Vander Pol family, owners of Oak Harbor Freight Lines ($12,000).

Over 82 percent of I-920’s funds come from principals at these five companies… companies I personally would avoid patronizing.

And what are these rich folk getting in return for their money?

Bupkes.

After paying himself, Falk has foolishly frittered away the bulk of the $140,000 raised thus far, by paying to insert petitions into various local newspapers and business journals… a signature gathering strategy that most experts will agree has virtually no chance of succeeding.

Sure, I-920 could easily qualify for the ballot with a paid canvassing campaign ($400,000 minimum investment), but the committee does not report a single dime expended on signature gathering thus far. Nor does it have anything resembling an organized volunteer campaign. So Falk is not only a gay-bashing, murdering Bircher… he’s also a goddamn amateur.

If the Nordstroms have this kind of money to throw away bankrolling a violent, right-wing extremist like Falk and his futile, incompetently run signature drive… it doesn’t say much for how responsibly their heirs will spend their money, should they inherit it 100% tax free.

So, hypothetically… if you were a former insurance industry super-lobbyist running for the US Senate, and you wanted to downplay your lucrative past to voters, would you…

A) Have the American Insurance Association throw you a big fundraiser in Washington D.C.?
B) Rake in over $275,000 in campaign contributions from the insurance industry (more than any other industry)? or
C) Invite AIA President Marc Racicot to fundraise for you in your home state?

Well, if you’re Mike McGavick, you apparently do all of the above, with Option C having been accomplished just yesterday.

According to the Spokesman Review, Racicot, the former RNC chair and current AIA president, was out in Spokane raising money for McGavick, who himself was a top AIA lobbyist back in the 90s, and until recently, its vice-chairman.

Hmm. Funny way to distance yourself from your lobbying days. But then, McGavick and Racicot have a lot in common.

Both cashed in on their political connections to earn big bucks lobbying for wealthy corporations and against the public interest… Racicot as “the star of Enron’s Western states ‘advocacy team,” in which role he once lobbied Gov. John Kitzhaber of OR without revealing his connections to Enron… and McGavick as the AIA’s top lobbyist on Superfund cleanup legislation.

And both have well deserved reputations for running political smear campaigns. As RNC chair, Racicot was intimately involved with misleading, negative attack ads nationwide, and earned a reputation for sharply partisan rhetoric during the Florida recount in 2000. And McGavick’s reputation for political shrewdness is large based on running Slade Gorton’s 1988 campaign, which according to the Seattle Times is “still remembered for negative TV ads.”

One Gorton ad suggested opponent Mike Lowry wanted to legalize marijuana, and others compared his appearance with that of Yasser Arafat.

Yikes. And this from the guy who says he wants to restore “civility” to the Senate.

You’d think McGavick would want to keep as far away as possible from characters like Racicot, who might remind voters of his history as a political hatchet man and lobbyist. But I guess it’s kind of hard to run from your past when it’s financing your campaign.