| Obama | Romney |
| 98.9% probability of winning | 1.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 311 electoral votes | Mean of 227 electoral votes |
Huh. Four years ago at this time, I was frantically entering the eleven new polls that had come out on election day. Today…not so much. We get only one rather inconsequential poll, although because it is Maine, and the Congressional districts are reported, we get three new polls for the price of one.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| ME | Maine PRC | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 905 | 3.3 | 53.3 | 42.2 | O+11.1 |
| ME1 | Maine PRC | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 469 | — | 56.7 | 39.0 | O+17.7 |
| ME2 | Maine PRC | 01-Nov | 03-Nov | 436 | — | 49.7 | 45.7 | O+4.0 |
As a consequence, this analysis differs little from yesterday’s analysis.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,946 times and Romney wins 1,054 times (including the 180 ties). Obama received (on average) 311 (+2) to Romney’s 227 (-2) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+0.1%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-0.1%) probability of winning.
My prediction: Obama wins. It’s almost certain.
Here’s our look back over the race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06 Nov 2011 to 06 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
The interesting thing is the very ragged, multimodal distribution of electoral votes seen in the graph below. The single most likely outcome in this race is an Obama victory with 303 electoral votes. There is a 9.2% probability of that happening.
Then it jumps to 332 electoral votes, with a 6% probability. And then to 318 electoral votes with a 3.8% probability. And so on.
The raggedness of the electoral votes distribution reflects that there are a non-trivial number of important states with large uncertainty. Florida is Romney’s but with only a 63% probability. Iowa is Obama’s but with only an 84% probability. North Carolina is in Romney’s column, but with a 74% probability, and Virginia goes to Obama, but with a 78% probability.
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):
- 303 electoral votes with a 9.19% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 5.94% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 3.80% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.78% probability
- 290 electoral votes with a 3.49% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.30% probability
- 297 electoral votes with a 2.97% probability
- 314 electoral votes with a 2.30% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 98.9%, Romney wins 1.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 310.7 (19.3)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 227.3 (19.3)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 308 (276, 347)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 230 (191, 262)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 159 | |||
| Strong Obama | 124 | 283 | ||
| Leans Obama | 20 | 20 | 303 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 303 |
| Weak Romney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 |
| Leans Romney | 46 | 46 | 235 | |
| Strong Romney | 129 | 189 | ||
| Safe Romney | 60 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 404 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 1069 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 5.1 | 94.9 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 571 | 34.9 | 65.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3* | 2986 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 5 | 4007 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 97.3 | 2.7 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1 | 1183 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1173 | 91.6 | 8.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 8 | 7066 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 37.3 | 62.7 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 1276 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 3.1 | 96.9 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 1157 | 64.2 | 35.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 563 | 30.0 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1174 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 570 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 5.7 | 94.3 | ||
| IA | 6 | 7 | 5348 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 84.4 | 15.6 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2* | 1143 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 557 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 2548 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 3 | 3005 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 2 | 1250 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 3 | 1700 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 89.7 | 10.3 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 1538 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 3 | 2556 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 5 | 4920 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 95.8 | 4.2 | ||
| MN | 10 | 3 | 1953 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1420 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2536 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 2 | 1411 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 1.2 | 98.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 1119 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 11.1 | 88.9 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 646 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 17.4 | 82.6 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 1298 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 90.6 | 9.4 | ||
| NH | 4 | 8 | 6212 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 91.9 | 8.1 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 5* | 3773 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2* | 1307 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 3* | 1770 | 63.8 | 36.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 3 | 2709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 26.3 | 73.7 | ||
| ND | 3 | 4* | 2563 | 42.6 | 57.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 9 | 8649 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 97.9 | 2.1 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 279 | 35.8 | 64.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 903 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 90.6 | 9.4 | ||
| PA | 20 | 5 | 3892 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 91.9 | 8.1 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 523 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 3* | 4199 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 4.1 | 95.9 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1 | 595 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 1.4 | 98.6 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 566 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 752 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 594 | 26.3 | 73.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 415 | 71.3 | 28.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 6 | 5538 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 77.5 | 22.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 923 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 93.5 | 6.5 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 361 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 1.7 | 98.3 | ||
| WI | 10 | 2 | 2409 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 95.7 | 4.3 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
For what it’s worth, Nate Silver awards Florida to the Kenyan Kommie. If it turns out that way, I hope Mitt didn’t invest in Florida real estate, too. For his sake.
I wish watching Romney didn’t make me want to puke…it’ll make the coverage tonight uncomfortable.
My money is on 332 for Obama.
May each and every one of us get the president we deserve.
Ohio’s most populous, deeply Democratic county:
Let’s look at the numbers.
Data from the Secretary of State showed 253,000 early votes already cast in Cuyahoga County.
23% of in-person voting using total registered Cuyahoga County voters from 2008 would be 255,595 votes for a total of around 508,000 votes.
In 2008, Cuyahoga ended up casting a little more than 678,000 votes.
That means that as of 5:00pm, Cuyahoga County is approximately 170,000 votes short of its 2008 total.
http://thirdbasepolitics.blogs.....it-in.html
Team Obama told CNN they expect an early night tonite.
This may be why.
@5, on the other hand, your wacking blog poster may be doing too much crack.
Well, the exit polls certainly look pretty good for Obama in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, to say the least. Just multiply out the percentages for men and women, and Obama comes out ahead. Same thing in North Carolina too.
Very well done Darryl. Very well done. :-)