| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.
Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CA | SurveyUSA | 29-Mar | 02-Apr | 1995 | 2.2 | 61.6 | 30.6 | O+31.0 |
| CO | PPP | 05-Apr | 07-Apr | 542 | 4.2 | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
| IN | Bellwether Research | 26-Mar | 28-Mar | 503 | 5.0 | 40 | 49 | R+9 |
| ME | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 993 | 3.1 | 54.6 | 37.0 | O+17.6 |
| ME1 | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 522 | 4.3 | 60.5 | 33.0 | O+27.5 |
| ME2 | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 471 | 4.5 | 48.0 | 41.4 | O+6.6 |
| MA | Rasmussen | 09-Apr | 09-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 40 | O+11 |
| MA | Boston Globe | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 544 | 4.2 | 49 | 33 | O+16 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 31-Mar | 03-Apr | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
| MT | Rasmussen | 02-Apr | 02-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 40 | 49 | R+9 |
| NV | PPP | 29-Mar | 01-Apr | 553 | 4.2 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
| NH | U NH | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 544 | 4.2 | 49 | 33 | O+16 |
| NJ | Quinnipiac | 03-Apr | 09-Apr | 1607 | 2.4 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
| NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 601 | 4.3 | 58 | 31 | O+27 |
| NM | Rasmussen | 03-Apr | 03-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 36 | O+16 |
| NY | Siena | 01-Apr | 04-Apr | 808 | 3.4 | 60 | 35 | O+25 |
| NY | Quinnipiac | 28-Mar | 02-Apr | 1597 | 3.0 | 56 | 33 | O+23 |
| NC | Rasmussen | 10-Apr | 10-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| NC | PPP | 04-Apr | 07-Apr | 975 | 3.1 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
| PA | Muhlenberg | 23-Mar | 01-Apr | 492 | 5.0 | 45 | 40 | O+5 |
| VA | Roanoke College | 25-Mar | 05-Apr | 591 | 4.0 | 40.1 | 45.9 | R+5.8 |
Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.
Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.
In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.
The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.
The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 350 electoral votes with a 7.96% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 7.19% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 4.61% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 4.26% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 3.48% probability
- 361 electoral votes with a 3.27% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 347.4 (15.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 190.6 (15.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 350 (314, 373)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 188 (165, 224)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 164 | |||
| Strong Obama | 141 | 305 | ||
| Leans Obama | 45 | 45 | 350 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 188 |
| Leans Romney | 18 | 18 | 187 | |
| Strong Romney | 120 | 169 | ||
| Safe Romney | 49 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 455 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 3.5 | 96.5 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1 | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 1838 | 66.8 | 33.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1 | 504 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 98.7 | 1.3 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1 | 1460 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 2 | 1563 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 1061 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 4.3 | 95.7 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 447 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.2 | 93.8 | ||
| IA | 6 | 1* | 720 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 34.1 | 65.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.0 | 93.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 909 | 59.6 | 40.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 488 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1 | 421 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 86.0 | 14.0 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 3 | 1773 | 60.1 | 39.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1 | 528 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 93.2 | 6.8 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 461 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 455 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 6.7 | 93.3 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 445 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 925 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1 | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.6 | 89.4 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 46.7 | 53.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1 | 281 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 990 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 94.9 | 5.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 2 | 942 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2 | 1965 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 440 | 59.1 | 40.9 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| NY | 29 | 2 | 2189 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 2 | 1357 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 77.7 | 22.3 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.5 | 99.5 | ||
| OH | 18 | 2 | 1537 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.1 | 1.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 1431 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 2 | 1489 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 86.7 | 13.3 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 85.6 | 14.4 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.7 | 95.3 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 1221 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 17.5 | 82.5 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 449 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 728 | 63.7 | 36.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 1924 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 93.5 | 6.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 1150 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 811 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2322 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Obama will win in November. The Dems should concentrate on taking back the House and gaining more seats in the Senate.
@1 I have a feeling the House will take care of itself after the GOP’s antics last summer.
This will drive wingers and teapartiers crazy. Taxpayers made a PROFIT on the bank bailouts!
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.co.....-says?lite
Any chance at all that Ron Paul will take a single state, or will he simply syphon off Republican votes?
Wow – lots of blue in the lesser-occupied states in the middle, the higher-populated coasts are almost all Democrat.
“Any chance at all that Ron Paul will take a single state, or will he simply syphon off Republican votes?”
Don’t know, but I plan on writing-in Ron Paul when I get my ballot for the 2012 election. I stood in line for nearly four hours to write-in Ron Paul in 2008. It’ll be easier this time ’cause all I have to do is vote, sign, enclose, and then drop off the whole shebang at the local fire department or any of the other places where you can drop off your mail-in ballot. Heck, you can even mail-in the damn thing, but I’m too cheap to pay the postage!
OMG, and you freely admit that?!
Taking advantage of free government services – moocher!! Don’t you people want to abolish the Post Office? Hypocrit.
“Taking advantage of free government services – moocher!! Don’t you people want to abolish the Post Office? Hypocrit.”
No, I don’t have anything against the Post Office. What you think of as “mooching” is being frugal. If the guys at Pierce County elections have a box out there for my mail-in ballot, and I happen to be driving by that office, why shouldn’t I just drop it in the box and go about my business? Or drop my ballot in another one of the convenient ballot drop off points around where I live?
For the record, I don’t remember ever advocating the abolishment of the Post Office. If you can dig through the posts over the past several years and find one in which I say to end the Post Office, then you can call me a hypocrit. Otherwise, I suggest you retract that accusation.
“OMG, and you freely admit that?!”
Yes, I freely admit that I voted for Ron Paul for President in the 2008 election by writing his name in on my ballot. If you don’t like it, you can keep it to yourself because I’m free to vote for whomever I choose. You don’t have a problem with free choice, do you?
@8 The fact you’re free to vote for whomever you choose does not, ipso facto, make your choice respectable.
@9,
You should know about not being respectable, rodent: you whole existence is a ridiculous, shamefull mess. Your comment applies equally to your political choice, also, rodent!
3: Great, maybe that 15,660 trillion on the clock will start going backwords after all this wonderful profit is racked up.. Somehow I don’t think that profit is going to make a hell of beans against the debt and deficits this crazy fool is racking up.
I tried to email you at darryl@hominidviews.com via the link on your byline, but it bounced as undeliverable, so I’ll post this here…
When looking at your latest Obama/Romney simulation results, noticed a couple of errors…
The Michigan EPCI/MRA poll is actually Obama 47, Romney 43. You were looking at The January numbers in a table they had showing older results. The April results are right underneath or to the left.
The poll you have listed for New Hampshire seems to actually be a Massachusetts poll (the same one you have listed above for Massachussets) unless you just linked to the wrong source… if you linked to the wrong source, can you point me at the actual NH poll? Thanks!
Thanks for the great work on these simulations!
11: When the Republicans nominated Romney, a guy whose plan calls for huge tax cuts and minor spending cuts along with huge spending increases, resulting in even bigger debts and deficits, they renounced any right to say even a single word about the current debt; please try again next term.
@10
Dingbat glibertarian: Roger, and all rabbits, are lagomorphs, not rodents. Please try to maintain a modicum of intelligence in your insults.