Who else is sick of the smoke from the Bolt Creek Fire? It has been more than a month of this disgusting sky. We could all use some rain.
One thing I am surprised by is that so few people are wearing N95 masks in it. Surely we all swimming in them after COVID-19. And they’re free at most drug stores. Just ask for one.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders
LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever
John Oliver: Museums and antiquities
WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward
Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons
Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power
Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?
Трамп and His Felonious Fans:
Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown
Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.
WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion
Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG
The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
What the fuck is happening with the King County jail? Jesus, man. Cloudy water? Cloudy water. For a week. It’s so terrible. They are people in our custody, and we have a moral responsibility to do fucking better.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And sign up to get vaccinated or for the bivalent booster right now.
Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.
We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.
The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.
With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.
Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 47 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 3 | 50 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Leans Republican | 5 | 5 | 50 | |
| Strong Republican | 10 | 45 | ||
| Safe Republican | 35 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 9 | 6018 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 3 | 2667 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 2 | 2435 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 6 | 3396 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| GA | 8 | 7128 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 805 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 1 | 456 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 6.9 | 93.1 | |
| KS | 1 | 784 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1560 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 5 | 3721 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 15.6 | 84.4 | |
| NH | 7 | 5381 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 2 | 1454 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3603 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 24.3 | 75.7 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 5 | 3698 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 73.1 | |
| OK | 2 | 814 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| OK | 1 | 430 | 39.5 | 60.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| OR | 2 | 1507 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 9 | 6780 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.7 | 95.3 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| WA | 5 | 3361 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WI | 8 | 5709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 18.4 | 81.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Good morning. Let’s start taking steps to get to a place where we can breach the dams on the Snake River. Excellent for salmon. We’ll have to figure out ways to replace the energy the dams produce. But it’s great to push for.
Rep. Dan Newhouse is opposed to any dam removal because he’s fighting a war on fishing. He wants the Snake River as dead as possible. He hates the recreation and transportation that could be achieved.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
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